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PeakOil is You

Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 17:43:22

Outcast - Some good points...except for the "easy oil" crap. LOL. The Rockman began hunting for oil 40 years ago. Trust me: it wasn't f*cking easy. And the old farts that trained me had been hunting for oil for decades before I started. And not one of them had a single story about an easy discovery. The exploration success rate was much worse in the "good ole days" the it is today. What has changed? There are fewer fields left to find.

Carefully read what I just posted to vt.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 17:44:41

OK got it. Today it takes less energy and money to drill a 10,000 hole in the GOM off the coast of Guyana below two miles of sea water then it did to drill a 10,000 foot hole in West Texas in 1960. Got it. :)
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Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 21:56:31

Peakoilpost wrote:From Daily Tech, or is it Daily Denial?…


Despite Reality, Belief in Peak Oil Persists

“Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types, has been much in the news recently. The idea behind it is that future production levels of any consumable resource can be reliably predicted based off a single factor: the size of the known reserves. Once half those reserves have been consumed -- so the theory goes -- production will steadily fall, no matter what.”

“So yes, oil will one day peak. But it won't be in our lifetimes, or our even our grandchildren’s. And when it happens, it won't be an earth-shattering catastrophe, but rather a smooth and natural progression to better, cheaper alternatives.”

Daily Tech Blog

For the record, here’s a quote from T. Boone Pickens’ testimony at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee...

"The world produces 85 million barrels of oil a day, or more than 30 billion barrels of oil a year. We haven’t replaced that amount of consumption on an annualized basis since 1985. World oil production, I believe, has peaked, and the world’s current oil fields are declining at the rate of 8 percent a year. The simple truth is we’re never going above 85 million barrels of oil production."


Another oldie but a goody. T. Boone Pickens said so!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 22:30:20

Yoshua wrote:Adam

I have made up my mind.

Peak conventional onshore 1980
Peak conventional onshore & offshore 2005
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


Excellent! Now if you can just figure out the chemical difference between this mythical "conventional" oil versus all that other stuff, we'll be in business!

Yoshua wrote:There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.


That is what Deffeyes said about 2005. Colin Campbell about 1990. Jimmy Carter said something similar in 1977, for the late 1980's.

Any reason why you might finally be right this time, compared to 2 expert geologists and the President of the United States, informed at the time by the likes of Hubbert himself, working for the USGS?

Yoshua wrote:And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.


Peak oil fairy tales are irrelevant.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: ‘Peak Oil, a theory popular among Chicken Little types’

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 23:20:35

So old, apparently, that the link doesn't work anymore.

This site is fast becoming a time-capsule.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 03:45:48

In the good ole days they used $1B offshore oil rigs? They developed $10B oil fields like Manifa?

The diesel to drill a hole is a minor cost (as you have stated your self). It is the total cost that has gone up exponentially.

The largest part of the energy is consumed in the oil rigs and the development of an oil field. The TOTAL energy cost is rising exponentially.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 04:15:19

Capex = Energy

It takes energy to produce capex and that is were the most of the energy is consumed in oil production.

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 14:13:16

Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


And General Electric stock has been in free fall since middle of 2016 going from 30 to 14. It peaked at 60 in 2000 and has been see sawing its way to 0 ever since.

Total Collapse.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 21:06:42

StarvingLion wrote:
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


And General Electric stock has been in free fall since middle of 2016 going from 30 to 14. It peaked at 60 in 2000 and has been see sawing its way to 0 ever since.

Total Collapse.


Two years for a 50% swing is hardly a free fall collapse. Vompanies in rapid dclne drop like that in a mnth or a quarter, not over two years.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 23:24:11

Yoshua wrote:Capex = Energy


No. The units aren't even the same...one of the first things they teach you in engineering by the way, make sure you are talking about the same units. Yours aren't.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 23:59:19

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Capex = Energy


No. The units aren't even the same...one of the first things they teach you in engineering by the way, make sure you are talking about the same units. Yours aren't.

Given the generally random nature of all his pronouncements that have anything to do with economics, why should we be surprised by this?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 07:05:26

Capex > Cash Flow

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby marmico » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 10:21:19

You mean ASPO Artie changed his tune. Tight oil was nuttin' but a retirement party at the ASPO May 2012 Austria get together but 6 years later it is now a marginal business. Oh, that's right. Artie did retire from ASPO.

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 13:30:25

Yoshua wrote:Capex > Cash Flow

Image

Rockdoc has completely crushed such claims repeatedly on this site in recent months with simple explanations.

That you continue to completely ignore that and just repeat the same nonsense like a dog barking at every person it sees or a bird pecking at its reflection all day for weeks on end doesn't exactly speak to your credibility on this topic.

Any actual new or original thoughts?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 15:05:39

there will never be a geo-peak in oil. There's more oil in the ground every day than the previous day. The Earth produces more oil than humans consume every day. Every day the Earth produces more oil than it did the previous day. All the evidence so far aligns with this ( i.e. year on year world oil production records far beyound what doomers over the last 100 year thought possible ). Testament to the infinite oil under our feet is the fact that after decades of screams from doomers & finiters that this time THIS TIME we have really got to the end of oil, we are still at $50/barrel. That's barely scrapping the surface. Until oil gets past $1000 barrel, not even the most diehard doomer need raise and eyebrow or write a letter about peak oil. And that will never happen anyway.
No-one know this more than rockdoc aka david, but he's been swept over by this doomathon over this 'cheap and easy as water' $50 oil atm into believing peak oil is imminent, but he can't admit it. It's tangled in with his knowledge that there's barely inuf cash in the oil industry to keep the oil flowing, but thats just capitalism for u, big fish need famines so the little fish remain weak and can be eaten. Can't have all the little upstart oil companies getting established aside the big boys.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby GHung » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 20:21:04

peakoilwhen wrote:there will never be a geo-peak in oil..... blah, blah, blah...


There will never be a more obvious and less convincing troll-for-hire than 'peakoilwhen'.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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How to Thrive When the World’s Falling Apart

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 15:13:21

: A Tiny Seven Step Program for Happiness, Beauty, Truth, and Love
"I see a lot of people telling us the world is crashing and burning but very little advice for little people able to plan for the future. Help!!” I get emails. And sometimes I even write essays about them. So. How is one to survive all this — these tumultuous, anxiety-inducing times? I’m going to take you through a seven step self-help program, from tiny to big, shallow to deep, and then we’ll discuss the thinking behind it. Nourish your relationships. That friend you haven’t called in a decade? That cousin you never talk to? Call them, email them, message them. Build up your social networks — not cynically as we do now, things to preen before. But instead, in the traditional sense: networks of people who look out for each other, support each other, care for one another. Not only will it bring you strength,


How to Thrive When the World’s Falling Apart
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 16:44:37

Carolyn Baker, notorious for being a close friend of Mike Ruppert, who committed suicide, is going to school us on how to think happy thoughts.

Image
Shiny happy people holding haaaaands.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Peak oil is a non-threat

Unread postby Tikib » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 19:41:10

Peak oil, as in the threat of running out of either energy in general, or energy specifically for transportation is no longer a threat in my opinion. I have researched energy issues for a long time as many of you will know.

The rapidly increasing capability of renewables and electric vehicles as well the near-term prospect of large scale energy storage and fusion energy, make any energy based collapse in the next century very unlikely.

Climate change is however a significant threat and is almost certain to shorten lives, cost a lot of money as well as wiping some human settlements off the map entirely due to rising sea levels.
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Re: Peak oil is a non-threat

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 22 Sep 2019, 19:47:51

Tikib wrote:Peak oil, as in the threat of running out of either energy in general, or energy specifically for transportation is no longer a threat in my opinion. I have researched energy issues for a long time as many of you will know.


Peak Oil was never the "threat of running out of ...energy in general." Peak Oil is defined as the moment the earth reaches a maximum point in the global production of oil.

We may be close to peak oil senso stricto. Conventional oil production has already peaked on a global basis and about the only kind of oil continuing to grow in production is oil from fracking in the USA. And that isn't infinite.....oil from fracking in the US may also be close to peaking, and when US oil from fracking peaks that might be it---that may well mark the moment of peak global oil production.

Cheers!
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