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Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 03 Dec 2016, 20:17:00

I heard the term stagflation. Describing a combination of inflation with a stagnant or depressed Economy
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 04 Dec 2016, 02:04:59

Sparky - "Harold Hamm...just made a cool 3 billions dollar nominal". Actually he didn't "make" money...the value of his stock increased. And another way of stating the same stat: Hamm has now only lost $7 billion instead of the $10 billion in stock value as a result of the oil price collapse. LOL.

And he don't sweat much for a fat guy.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 04 Dec 2016, 02:14:19

And an update on how the Hamboy's company is doing these days:

"For the third quarter, Continental said its net production was about 5 percent lower than the second quarter and 9 percent lower year-on-year. Most of the decline came from North Dakota. Continental reported a net loss of $109.6 million, a loss that's 33 percent greater than the loss from third quarter 2015. In August, the company sold off some of its assets in and around the Bakken area for about $600 million in a move Hamm said helped reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet."

Selling $600 million in oil production in depressed market: a sign of desperation that doesn't match his proclaimed optimism of future oil prices.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 04 Dec 2016, 02:26:33

.
Love the oil industry , fortune belong to the brave , until the road runner discover an interesting fact
......Gravity suck !

it's like farming in Australia ,watch helplessly as all your efforts wither , then pick yourself up , shake the dust of your face and go for it again ..and again
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 04 Dec 2016, 12:25:37

Sparky - "like farming in Australia" A very old joke: a mid west farmer wins $5 million in the lottery. Asked his plans: "Just keep putting it into the farm until its all gone and we're struggling again."
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 04 Dec 2016, 14:51:20

Selling $600 million in oil production in depressed market: a sign of desperation that doesn't match his proclaimed optimism of future oil prices.


I doubt it has anything to do with what he believes will happen in the future. Over the period from 2010 through 2016 Continental increased their debt from around $600 MM to $6 billion. Assuming favorable rates, Continentals debt carrying costs would be around $500 MM/year. Note that annual production is pretty much the same as it was in 2015 (about 220,000 boe/d) but a $30 drop in price amounts to cash flow that is ~$2 billion less. By selling assets that are the least "core" of what they hold it affects the bottom line immediately by both having capital available that can retire some of the debt. In essence that ends up being ~ a $50 MM increase in free cashflow for the year which is small compared to the loss in cash flow due to prices but is still significant.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 05 Dec 2016, 19:28:13

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:I heard the term stagflation. Describing a combination of inflation with a stagnant or depressed Economy

Sure. Stagflation was invented, occurred in the United States (and perhaps worldwide) during the 1970's. Not coincidentally just after the peak oil US oil production. Not quite the same as now, we have covered up the deflation (and prevented the inflation) with incredible debt everywhere. Perhaps we will see one final hyper-inflation before the House of Cards (accounting books) collapses for the last time.


Actually it was during the last wo years of the Carter Administration, when new home nterest rates were 21 percent and the economy was awful, not the early 70's when America peaked out on production.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Dec 2016, 19:42:17

I know my home state NY was really bad during the 70"s. Incidentally, Trump was instrumental in the the revitalization process by buying up run down and derelict lots and properties and converting them into high end properties
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The equations are changing for the oil industry

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 01:41:24

In 1846, the US was the behemoth of the whaling industry, with Nantucket Island and New Bedford, Massachusetts its twin capitals. Demand for whale oil, as industrial lubricants or as fuel for heating and lighting, had driven the growth of the whaling industry by a factor of fourteen since 1816. New Bedford had the highest per capita GDP in the world. Yet within two decades, the industry that had contributed over $227 million per year to the GDP of the US (when adjusted for inflation) was dying. Growing demand from Europe first for coal oil and then kerosene replaced demand for whale oil. New Bedford diversified to textiles and light industrial manufacturing thanks to its easier access to railroads, while Nantucket collapsed as its population moved ashore as whaling expeditions declined. Over a century later, the global energy and transportation industries are


The equations are changing for the oil industry
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Re: Peak Oil? Industry Numbers Disagree

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 09:17:30

The Oil Industry is also dying From its own growing inadequacy and the need and desire of our species to stop poisoning itself with FF and not delay longer preparing for it's inevitable demise
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Re: Peak Oil? Industry Numbers Disagree

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 15:25:57

onlooker wrote:The Oil Industry is also dying From its own growing inadequacy and the need and desire of our species to stop poisoning itself with FF and not delay longer preparing for it's inevitable demise


The industry isn't going anywhere, as long as even detractors like you still happily line up for your fix at the local gas stations, or gladly use petrochemicals or natural gas to heat your home or water. Industry thanks YOU onlooker, personally, but being the perfect customer. A hypocrite, who doesn't let their faux outrage get in the way of handing over $$ for their product on a regular basis. bravo!

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 10:41:45

Place your bets; PLACE your bets!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 18:31:42

Define "Oil", then define "Oil Peak", and I'll be glad to bet.

Once upon a time, I thought I understood both terms. Now the more I learn about the subject, the less certain I am.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 18:35:55

Around four decades ago unless it went up after 2013.
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Robert Rapier: Peak Oil In Four Years?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 00:10:01

Between 2010 and 2015, annual oil production in the U.S. grew by four million barrels per day (BPD). Production dipped in 2016, but then U.S. crude oil production again rose by 1.2 million BPD between January and December 2017, to levels that haven't been seen since the early 1970s. The surge in production is a result of growth in tight oil (more commonly known as shale oil). Many, including myself, never imagined that oil production could grow enough to threaten the U.S. oil production peak from 1970. But that looks inevitable at this point. This production increase raises the question: Just how much will U.S. tight oil production increase before it peaks and begins to decline? Another million BPD? Three million BPD? The Energy Information Administration's latest Annual Energy Outlook (with projections to 2050) attempts to answer this question, modeling several scenarios for future oil


Robert Rapier: Peak Oil In Four Years?
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 17:32:36

Say U.S could double its current output. IF it is mostly tight oil won't most of this new oil drop to around 10% production within years?

What caused the shale revolution, why didn't it start earlier? Was there some revolutionary technological advance that allowed it? Or was it easily possible in prior decades but was not done so because it wasn't that economical nor long lasting? Perhaps a sufficient drop in U.S production finally justified it as a last hurrah.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 08:30:10

All of the above.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 23:09:51

Darian S wrote:What caused the shale revolution, why didn't it start earlier?


In natural gas it did, with shale production dating back to 1825. Shale oil was being produced by the 1880's, in both Ohio and West Virginia.

The recent surge is more of an intensification of something already known about, and previously produced in naturally fractured sweet spots. Devonian shale development in OH,PA, WA for example, the Marcellus being probably the 3rd, maybe even 4th burst of production from that rock.

Peak oilers don't tell you any of this because it doesn't help their advocacy of doom tomorrow.

Darian S wrote:Was there some revolutionary technological advance that allowed it?


In 1825 it was drilling a hole into it. In the later 1800's it was deeper drilling, wire rope being one of the main innovations that allowed cable tool rigs to go deeper. Again, peakers don't want to discuss any of this, because it doesn't allow doom tomorrow afternoon. Plus, they are generally ignorant of any history of the industry because..well...they prefer that state, having no desire to understand the issue before turning it todays rapture scenario.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby spike » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 07:12:39

I would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 11:49:31

Production per capita is more logical.
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