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PeakOil is You

THE ASPO Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 00:01:03

As global supply drops price will have to rise even if there are alternatives for transportation.

It then depends o how high a price the economy can handle. There is a limit.


All publicly traded companies are required to have a substantial portion of their reserves audited by an independent third party each year. Even Saudi Arabia has now undergone this process as a consequence of the IPO. Any incentive to lie about Proven reserves (in the US this is all that is reported and generally so elsewhere) is offset by the potential penalties if caught. This has been discussed at length elsewhere on this site.


I assume there are multiple independent such parties and multiple involved in auditing.

Corruption of such system doesnt seem impossible.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 00:10:38

It then depends o how high a price the economy can handle. There is a limit.


maybe so but we haven't seen the limit yet. Prices stayed above $100/bbl for over three years while demand continued to grow... demand continued to grow all the way to $140 before the big recession. As has been demonstrated by countless papers high oil prices neither created the recession or the 2014 drop in oil prices.

I assume there are multiple independent such parties and multiple involved in auditing.

Corruption of such system doesnt seem impossible.


Jesus wept, do a little research. There are at least 5 major global audit firms that I can think of and literally scores of smaller ones. After Sarbanes Oxley these firms became legally responsible for the audits that they signed off on. IF found to be wrong they would be sanctioned along with the companies they had represented. There is zero incentive for an auditor to lie these days, if caught they could see jail time and would lose out on future business and it is pretty lucrative. I've personally seen a few $50,000 cheques cut to such firms for what amounted to be a simple update on previous work they had conducted. Who in their right mind running a business worth tens or more millions of dollars a year in income would risk it for $50,000.

Again all discussed at length elsewhere on this site.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 00:19:25

If there was corruption itd be under the table. And if talking billions in profit such could easily be 10s of millions
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 00:59:59

If there was corruption itd be under the table. And if talking billions in profit such could easily be 10s of millions


Please explain to us exactly how that would happen in a publicly traded oil and gas company. How would a company gain billions by showing they have more Proven reserves in year 1 and not being able to back that up with production figures over the next year, all of which gets reported to the security commissions. The minute the company officers start to sell shares the SEC or TSX investigate.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 15:26:05

dissident wrote:In a lot of the rabid denial of peak oil, the fact that discoveries have faded to well below replacement levels is systematically ignored. This allows for the wiggle room to spout BS.

T = Integral[(R(t)/E(t))dt]


Let us know when that equation, or your claim of what has been "discovered" properly accounts for the work the USGS has done, and the shale plays themselves, you know, those oil amounts approaching the size of some of those largest USGS assessments?

Because until it does, no one gets any credibility for a discovery equation that must EXCLUDE hundreds of billions, if not potentially a trillion or more barrels, just so they can play old fashioned peak oil idiot math games that didn't work last time.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 15:46:19

Darian S wrote:
no one disputes peaks within cycles of development. Around here, we have even discussed the sine wave of oil production being far more representative than this nonsense single peak stuff. And yes, go study the areas that the EIA applies the Oil and Gas Supply Module to, and you will see that there is area to drill, they have quantified it, and if the price is right, any model worth its salt will go drill wells. Exactly what happened, and has continued to happen. There will come a time when there are fewer areas. And then we can begin to talk about the next cycles of development.

So you claim that just as much production as the recent U.S. total shale play can again be brought online after the current production drops?


I didn't say that. I said that the EIA keeps track within their modeling system of the drillable locations and expected results, and when they run low on drillable locations, by definition the natural decline will bring down the rate of the whole.

What happens to price during this exercise will dictate what happens next...just like it did last time.

Darian S wrote: And not just one cycle but multiple such cycles lie in the future?


Possibly as many as there are additional resources to be developed, or large resources that are currently not being exploited at anywhere near their possible rates. Go count them up, and you'll know the potential. Peakers never did, which is obviously why they keep getting it wrong.

Darian S wrote:The easiest and most profitables spots were drilled, and I've not heard of equally as large available reserves for the U.S to allow for multiple such cycles.


The same was said BEFORE the resource plays came on line. Go add up the resources and their endowment, and do it right. I should mention, this work is already being demonstrated at modeling conferences last summer, and it wasn't being done by the same fools that do peak oil all decline, all the time modeling. They are doing it right, and are basically answering every question you have asked so far, and within the context of cost and price.

Darian S wrote: Do you claim the IEA believes there are multiple large fields left untapped allowing for multiple cycles of further future shale plays?


Ask the IEA. They fall into the category of people who were stupid enough to fall for the shrieking of peak oil more than a decade ago, so their understanding of resources is obviously flawed. The estimate of large fields left untapped are best quantified by the USGS in their total petroleum system assessment methods, updated for the world in 2012. If you wanted to, you could easily run their assessment method for any given probability, plug that into their field size class calculator, and put a number and size on all of them.

Darina S wrote:
So until someone can identify exactly how much technically producible hydrocarbons (irrespective of price) exist around the world then any discussion regarding replacement by new discoveries is interesting but incomplete and hence wrong.

It's not just technically producible, but at what rate too and EROEI.


EROEI is irrelevant, as every person here with industry related experience has explained. No decision has been, is, or will be made based on EROEI for developing any well, field, project or basin. Ever. It is a peak oil red herring that dates back to at least 1982 or so when Charlie Hall used it to claim that all oil drilling in the US would stop by the year 2000. You know how that went, right? Don't ask academics with zero oil experience desperately trying to get tenure to speculte outside their experience, lest you get the egg on your face from the backsplash off of them.

Darian S wrote:
If we ignore prices and EROEI the vast majority can likely be recovered if you go through enough lengths.


The USGS generally does technically recoverable, and I know they ignore EROEI. You feel free to take your EROEI experience and the ridiculous use of it to predict the exact opposite of what happened and drop it in front of them, and let us know how loud the laughter gets behind you as you slink away.

Darian S wrote: But there comes a point were it may be easier to manufacture than to get the last drops out. Also it is not guaranteed that technological improvement will allow for adequate rate of extraction of the latter remaining resources.


Technology is not required to improve to recover all of the resources. The USGS has said so, and the EIA published a white paper on how it works, in terms of increasing recoverability. I'll stick with what the people who do this for a living know already. After all, neither of those 2 groups proved in real time that they were dumb enough to fall for peak oil on Thanksgiving Day, 2005.

Darian S wrote:Regards existing reserves. Are we sure the powers that be don't have incentives to overstate their existing reserves?


Reserves, as opposed to politically generated numbers called reserves, don't have a TPTB component, they have engineers and geologists who put together their best estimates, and as demonstrated by the scientists, these numbers are generally conservative. Not overstated on a volume basis at all. As far as what happens if you get an idiot in charge who just wants to make numbers go up and down for fun...well...you would have to talk to shorty about that, or some other peak oiler, they do it all the time, and you can ask them why.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 17:25:56

The US currently has proven reserves of about 35 billion bbls of oil and the EIA estimates the US has additional technically recoverable reservers of ca. 198 billion bbls of oi.

Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States

Thats a lot of oil.

All that remains to see is how expensive it will be to extract that oil and what kind of production rates can be attained as TOS development continues into the future and the "sweet spots" in the TOS basins are used up.

Image
Extra credit points if you can spot the moment when TOS reserves began to be added to overall US proven reserves

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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 19:08:21

If the future cornucopia wasnt in doubt why would we hear stuff like the following
"I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is - is this the last big rise in U.S. production?" said Taylor, chief executive at Vitol, which trades more than 7 percent of global oil and has a large presence in U.S. markets.-reuters
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 15:40:05

Darian S wrote:If the future cornucopia wasnt in doubt why would we hear stuff like the following
"I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is - is this the last big rise in U.S. production?" said Taylor, chief executive at Vitol, which trades more than 7 percent of global oil and has a large presence in U.S. markets.-reuters


For the same reason we heard this, obviously.

The Oil Dullards wrote:World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 16:59:21

For the same reason we heard this, obviously.


That's not some random post from a peakoiler guy, that's a chief executive in the industry who should be more in the know.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby spike » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 08:20:46

Darian, a chief executive in the oil industry is not an expert on oil supply (ignoring the fact that Vitol is a refiner). Total's CEO told us oil production would never pass 85 mb/d, and there are numerous cases over the past 4 decades of CEOs talking about the sunset of the industry (Mobil, Arco, etc.)
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 01:09:45

spike wrote:Darian, a chief executive in the oil industry is not an expert on oil supply (ignoring the fact that Vitol is a refiner). Total's CEO told us oil production would never pass 85 mb/d, and there are numerous cases over the past 4 decades of CEOs talking about the sunset of the industry (Mobil, Arco, etc.)

I've heard some of what's been counted can't actually be sold on the world market and world peaked last decade. Not sure if true.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 01:16:15

I've heard some of what's been counted can't actually be sold on the world market and world peaked last decade. Not sure if true.


yes and on the internet someone will tell you that the earth was once invaded by extraterrestrials and their offspring now hold all the important positions in governments around the world.

So source of information is always important. :wink:
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 02:26:09

rockdoc123 wrote:
I've heard some of what's been counted can't actually be sold on the world market and world peaked last decade. Not sure if true.


yes and on the internet someone will tell you that the earth was once invaded by extraterrestrials and their offspring now hold all the important positions in governments around the world.

So source of information is always important. :wink:


The comments on peak last decade have been from multiple sources. The reanimated corpse economy with cooked numbers suggests things are not alright at the moment.


"This led to the situation now, where the U.S. continues to import large amounts of Saudi crude, despite having a surplus of LTO that gets stored locally."-seekingalpha

This suggests that the LTO is somehow different from other sources.

There are some that say a large part of what shale is producing is condensates with high APIs, that it is largely understated, and that those who've tried blending it have been unsastisfied with the results.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-condensate/u-s-oil-industrys-billion-dollar-question-what-is-condensate-idUSKCN0HX0BU20141008

But there are articles more recent that say that it is not condensate that makes up most of the increased production. Not sure if they take into account understament. But perhaps what they say is true.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby spike » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 06:58:22

Can't be sold? Have you heard about people dumping LTO into the ocean? There might be some discount on the price if the mix doesn't match refining needs, but you might have noticed that despite "conventional" oil supposedly having peaked in 2005, there is no shortage of products.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 09:45:12

rockdoc123 wrote:source of information is always important.


Consdiering that almost every link posted here is to Zerohedge, I'd say few appreciate this and never will.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 12:12:07

spike wrote:Can't be sold? Have you heard about people dumping LTO into the ocean? There might be some discount on the price if the mix doesn't match refining needs, but you might have noticed that despite "conventional" oil supposedly having peaked in 2005, there is no shortage of products.

Well it seems that to blend, you need other grades in sufficient quantities. If LTO, or the rumored super light condensate were true, is produced at too high a quantity it may exceed market capacity and need to be stored.

This may be worsened if demand cannot increase to make use of the added supply also.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 13:27:14

Well it seems that to blend, you need other grades in sufficient quantities. If LTO, or the rumored super light condensate were true, is produced at too high a quantity it may exceed market capacity and need to be stored.

This may be worsened if demand cannot increase to make use of the added supply also.


Mixing 40% LTO to 60% Western Canada heavy oil gives a perfect blend for the deep cracking refineries in the US and there is a heck of a lot of heavy oil in Western Canada. Condensate sells at a premium to oil (about $5 - $10/bbl over the last year). The name condensate is misleading....Rockman has pointed out the origin of the term and it says nothing about it's ability to be blended.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 09:50:28

This is the last peak oil blog.


There is another.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Carnot » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 07:54:38

Certain posters seem to be taking great delight in yet another Peak Oil Blog ceasing to operate. True many of the projections of these blogs have not been realised in the times frames suggested but the fact remain is that one day oil production will peak, Peak Demand or not. I do not profess when that this might happen, but happen it will.

What is clear is that many of those rejoicing in the demise of ASPO USA clearly fail to understand the concept and principles of Peak Oil and EROEI, the latter being especially pertinent when considering shale oil and gas.Their cornucopian beliefs that mankind will always be able to find a solution is indeed even more polemic than Peak Oil believers belief in peak supply.

Many barrels of oil remain in the ground. Whether they can be extracted economically remains the be seen, as with each decade passing the energy required to extract these yet to be developed and yet to be found resources increases.

How many proponents of biofuels failed to grasp the subject of EROEI. How many billions have been wasted on futile projects that had no hope of ever being economic. What about cellulosic ethanol. Still awaiting a technology breakthrough; the thermodynamic equivalent of perpetual motion. No-one talks about algae any longer. Small wonder.

Just remember that cornucopians have to be right all the time. Peak Oil proponents only need to be right once. Some may have been premature, but happen it surely will. Don't forget, "he who laughs last, laughs loudest".
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