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THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 18:39:03



U.S. shale is growing at a scorching rate, but will the shale industry be around for the long haul? A new study calls into question the heady projections for shale oil and gas, arguing that expectations of huge levels of production for decades to come are based on shaky assumptions. The Post Carbon Institute’s report argues that the EIA is overstating the potential of U.S. shale, calling the projections “highly to extremely optimistic, and are therefore very unlikely to be realized.” The report argues that while U.S. oil production has doubled from 2005 levels, and shale gas has also exploded over the same timeframe, there are underlying problems that will always bedevil shale production. For instance, shale wells typically see production deplete by 70 to 90 percent in the first three years, while fields see output drop off by about 20 to


The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 21:14:14

I skimmed through Hughes' report earlier, with a focus on the Utica, Marcellus, and the Bakken with which I am most familiar.
Same old Hughes' formula that he used in Drilling Deeper and most probably will be shown to be wildly wrong, as all his other analysis has proven false.

I was a little surprised that he still uses Kevin Thout's 2013 work on well spacing ...when Thout used 12 and 24 month existing wells for comparison, This, then, meant wells drilled/completed a decade ago.
Totally obsolete.

Likewise, he referenced the 2011 USGS Marcellus assessment, which called for 1.6 Bcf cum wells from the area, with 4 wells per square mile.
No need to show how incredibly 'off' that metric is today, but Mr. Hughes' fan base is probably both unknowing and uncaring in these matters.

(It was a little comical to see the Utica included in this work.
Immediately after the extensive WVU study on the Utica was released, Hughes put forth a pithy, single page refutation of the incredibly in-depth report, saying it lacked merit.)

One thing I'll commend Hughes for is consistency ... consistently wrong, and easily shown to be so.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 14:22:32

coffeeguyzz wrote:One thing I'll commend Hughes for is consistency ... consistently wrong, and easily shown to be so.

Thanks for the summary. Kind of sad that he can't even be remotely in the ballpark on the facts. Kind of like many fast crash doomers re economics around here.

So I presume he gets away with this since as long as he delivers the message the post carbon institute wants to hear, he still gets paid? So he has the same veracity as, say, tobacco companies who claim smoking doesn't cause cancer (since, for example, they can find one in 10,000 healthy 80+ year olds who smoked for decades?)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 21:05:53

OS
That's a great question, regarding Hughes' continued production of flawed research and its ready acceptance by like minded followers.

I read the Massachusetts Attorney General-sponsored report claiming New England did not need new natgas pipelines.
I read the recent report claiming a couple of NE distribution companies deliberately oversubscribed gas deliveries and consequently artificially boosted electric bills by billions of dollars. I even skimmed through the EPA's meta study on the effects of frac'ing related to groundwater.

My biggest takeaway from these efforts?

No. One.
Say again ... NO ONE reads these things.
Rather, they are referenced as some sort of "see, this backs up my beliefs" type of effort.

I mean, really, just download and spend 5 minutes reading the Executive Summary from 'Drilling Deeper'.
The man completely dismisses future production from the Permian Basin.
He completely miscast production from the Appalachian Basin.

I do not make these statements in a derogatory fashion towards Hughes.
Rather, I am simply astounded that he is both referenced and deemed authoritative on these matters with such a horrendous track record ... a track record that 15 minutes of Googling readily shows.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 00:41:48

coffeeguyzz wrote:OS
I mean, really, just download and spend 5 minutes reading the Executive Summary from 'Drilling Deeper'.
The man completely dismisses future production from the Permian Basin.
He completely miscast production from the Appalachian Basin.

I do not make these statements in a derogatory fashion towards Hughes.
Rather, I am simply astounded that he is both referenced and deemed authoritative on these matters with such a horrendous track record ... a track record that 15 minutes of Googling readily shows.

Thanks for the pointers and suggestions.

I both downloaded and looked through the Executive Summary from 'Drilling Deeper', and did some Googling about production, wells, growth, etc. for both Permian Basin oil fracking and Appalachia NG fracking.

It seems to me that only people more interested in hearing what they want to hear vs. factual accuracy would find this guy credible, if this report is any indication of his typical work (which reflects your comments about his horrendous track record).

It's good to see that in the real world, lots of ongoing new production for both tight NG and oil look very promising, as long as there is the demand for it (which will result in sufficient pricing to support it).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 15:31:27

It just occurred to me that perhaps we should start a companion thread: "Saudis Fear Russian Oil Production". After all Russia is the second largest oil exporter right after the KSA. And virtually all of Russia's production is typically slowly declining conventional oil fields. Consider that the KSA competes for market share with other oil EXPORTING countries. There are 118 countries with larger net oil exports then the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... il_exports

US has huge negative exports. Actually Belize competes with the KSA for a portion of the export market. Granted at only 4,300 bopd it's not much competition but more then the US provides in the export market. In reality claiming the US increased production as "competition" is no different then claiming a country that goes into a deep recession and significantly reduces oil imports as being a new competitor against the KSA. In fact, didn't many countries reduce oil imports when prices exceeded $100/bbl? Also consider at the height of US oil imports we represented only about 15% of the oil import market. Not insignificant but the rest of the world imported almost 6X as much oil as the US.
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The Coming Fall of the House of Saud: Austerity is in, and t

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Feb 2018, 20:47:13

With austerity policies sweeping the globe it was really only a matter of time before they hit the more affluent parts of the Middle East, although one certainly wouldn't expect the oil-rich kingdom of Saudi Arabia to be so hot on the heels of the "lazy" Greeks. The word "austerity" has however earned a bit of a bad rap with some and so rendered itself rather unfashionable in certain circles, resulting in no astute leader being daft enough to explicitly impose "austerity" on his or her populace. Nevertheless, when your nation's time has come it doesn't matter what kind of language you prefer to use, because when push comes to shove you either do as you're told and send increasing portions of your nation's population down the river or – and as Alexis Tsipras nearly found out – your country


The Coming Fall of the House of Saud: Austerity is in, and the Countdown to Saudi Arabia’s Fire Sale is On!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Vision 2030 & the Political Costs of Saudi Reforms

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 21:53:04


A pillar of the Saudi social contract has been the allocation of oil rents to the population in exchange for loyalty and fidelity to the Saud clan. A key weakness of Vision 2030 is its lack of focus on the potential political consequences of economic reforms. The plan seems to assume that its ramifications will be easily borne by the Saudi population. However, the IMF postulates that the potential failure of the reforms to produce economic growth and ultimately private sector jobs for Saudis may lead either to rising unemployment and social pressures or increased public employment, which would have negative fiscal implications. If the government becomes unable to sustain its current level of payouts to the population, this will almost certainly result in rising public dissatisfaction. As more austerity measures are pursued, the social contract between the population and the government


Vision 2030 & the Political Costs of Saudi Reforms
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: A year of historic change in Saudi Arabia, with more to

Unread postby dissident » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 10:42:22

Utter propaganda. The KSA remains a theocracy which sponsors Wahabbi terrorists around the world. All these fluff pieces about reform are pathetic attempts to shift attention from the essence of this terrorist toilet and make it appear that the precious west has its hands squeaky clean.
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IEA Predicts Nightmare Scenario For OPEC

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 11:29:02


The U.S. will supply much of the world’s additional oil for the next few years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Over the next three years, the U.S. will cover 80 percent of the world’s demand growth, the IEA says in its newly-released Oil 2018 annual report. Canada, Brazil and Norway will cover the remainder, leaving no room for more OPEC supply. The irony is that the substantial gains in output from shale will only be possible because of the OPEC cuts, which has tightened the market and boosted prices. This fact is not lost on OPEC producers. "If you are a shale oil producer, who brought you back? It was OPEC," the UAE’s oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said at a recent industry conference, according to Bloomberg. "Without OPEC there’d be chaos in the market." Indeed, the


IEA Predicts Nightmare Scenario For OPEC
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 08:54:20

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... l-company/

Minutes ago, the Houthi forces announced that their rocket battalion had fired a ballistic missile towards the Saudi Aramco Oil Company in southern Saudi Arabia.

According to the Houthi forces, their rocket battalion fired a Badr-1 ballistic missile at the Saudi Aramco site in the Najran Region of Saudi Arabia.

The Houthi forces claimed that the missile successfully hit its target in the Najran Region.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 15 May 2018, 09:00:03

Houthis say they hit Saudi base with ballistic missile
15/05/2018


Image


Houthis have intensified attacks by missiles after a Saudi airstrike killed a prominent political leader, Saleh Ali al-Sammad, last month.

The missiles fired by Houthi rebels have been targeting military as well economic targets inside the Kingdome, including the giant Saudi Aramco oil company.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ho ... c-missile/
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Logical attack by Houthis make the cost for SA war sky high.. :twisted:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Tue 15 May 2018, 09:18:42

Let's at least be honest about who is firing or supplying missiles to the Houthi. Its Iran.

In due time Iran will be made to pay a price. Israel is already making it costly for Iran to operate in Syria.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 16 May 2018, 13:14:41

Am I mistaken or is this Iran connection seldom discussed in MSM?
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Re: THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 May 2018, 10:35:22

Newfie wrote:Am I mistaken or is this Iran connection seldom discussed in MSM?


You are 100% correct, it is rarely if ever mentioned by western media sources. It is almost as if the major advertisers have deals with Iran and ordered a news blackout with threat of withdrawing funds if they don't like what gets reported.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 20 May 2018, 07:57:33

pstarr wrote:Are we kidding ourselves? Really? You all mean to say the US is not hating on Iran?

Christomighty give me succas.


Newfie mentioned the specific story of Iran sending troops and agitators to Syria and I agreed. The MSM has been totally ignoring the story compared to how every incident the Russians are involved with get treated.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 May 2018, 13:17:55

T - It really is amazing. Obviously the MSM tends to a void emphasizing there has been an actual SHOOTING WAR engaged in by both Israel and Iran. Granted it was fought inside Syria. But imagine if it had been US planes that hit those Syrian missile sites. I suspect part of the lack of motivation by the MSM s to provide any support to the position of the POTUS towards Iran.
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Re: THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 May 2018, 13:53:30

ROCKMAN wrote:T - It really is amazing. Obviously the MSM tends to a void emphasizing there has been an actual SHOOTING WAR engaged in by both Israel and Iran. Granted it was fought inside Syria. But imagine if it had been US planes that hit those Syrian missile sites. I suspect part of the lack of motivation by the MSM s to provide any support to the position of the POTUS towards Iran.

That would make perfect sense re the left leaning MSM. But the right leaning MSM? They still seem to support Trump about a lot of issues.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Oct 2018, 00:14:02

StarvingLion wrote:Reality: Can Kick

Of course, the irony is that if you had ANY crediblity here, people might be willing to listen, IF you had anything meaningful to say, re data points, credible citations, etc.

As it is, why do you even bother to post? Is it conform to the voices in your head?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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