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Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 18:55:41

Basic Minimum Income discussion moved to a more appropriate thread HERE

Please try and stick to stock market news in this thread, thanx!
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 21:14:01

EdwinSm wrote:For me the question is was this post week just a small interruption to the flow of the market over the last years, or is it a sign of a new direction (sideways or even down)? I do not know the answer, but looking at the 10 year graph the falls can be a lot swifter than the climbs.

That observation holds well for, say, 100 years as well.

Rapid drops (i.e. crashes) are definitely a part of the cost of being in the market. i.e. why long term holders are "paid" so well compared to cash, bonds, short term CD's, etc. -- it's enduring the volatility. And on the downside it can definitely be nasty.

OTOH, getting paid several percent more than the rate of inflation over any multi-decade period is a nice payoff. It's a nice exercise in psychology. I like to sleep at night, so I tend to keep a very balanced portfolio. I have friends that literally just completely ignore the market on a month to month basis for their 401-K -- they just always add the max they can and let time do it's thing.

Whatever works. (Being a perma-bear and constantly predicting doom definitely hasn't worked over a multi-decade period -- ever).
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 09:06:21

Been a long time since we had any inflation worries... The markets should be jumpy for a long time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-heats-stocks-tumble-134723028.html

Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, noted in an email on Tuesday that economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect core inflation to average 1.8% in the second quarter of the year, up from 1.5% in the first quarter. Wednesday’s report will likely pull forward expectations for faster inflation even more.

“I currently spend significant amounts of time on the phone, emails, and in meetings explaining this coming jump in the March and April inflation data,” Sløk said. “And I have come to the conclusion that this is not priced in to rates at all.”
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 10:36:49

The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 15:22:32

Cog wrote:The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.

People seem to forget that if the economy returns to normal, there will likely be consequences. Inflation more in the 3.x% long term average range wouldn't be surprising.

Now, can the Fed force inflation to a more muted 2% while allowing robust economic growth? I'll believe it when I've seen it for, say, 5 years or more.

If the markets are fearing possible double digit inflation on a non-core jump to 0.5% for a month, with fuel costs surging over 5%, that seems completely irrational to me.

If they're fearing the Fed needs to bump interest rates up by another half percent or so beyond what they planned, OK, but how much fear and loathing should that inspire?

Meanwhile, at 3:18, we have stocks up around 1.5%, oil up nearly 3%, and a stock market supposedly terrified of a little inflation. (Down sharply early today, supposedly on inflation worries with today's report).

:?

Go figure. In my opinion, it's almost impossible to discern anything meaningful on day to day economic activity -- too many variables, too many revisions to come, etc.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 14:38:15

warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:22:34

onlooker wrote:
warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428


You should short the market immediately onlooker and become one of the 1%. No?
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:40:09

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428


You should short the market immediately onlooker and become one of the 1%. No?

Never had money in the Stock Market and never will. Don't you know Cog, I am a Doomer. 8)
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:49:29

I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:06:52

Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:16:09

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:


You are going to welch on the bet aren't you?
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:47:44

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:


You are going to welch on the bet aren't you?

No. Didn't say that. Just that it is still too early to determine who will win.
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City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US sto

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 08:42:52


Coming dramatic decline of US stock prices would trigger global recession, finds grim forecast to be explored at roundtable hosted by British financial services think-tank Published as part of the launch of the new beta platform for INSURGE intelligence, a crowdfunded journalism platform for people and planet. A new analysis published on the website of a London-based think-tank, funded by the world’s biggest banking and financial services institutions, warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession. The document by a senior US economist and former Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England is published on the website of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI), which runs around 100 roundtable events a year involving financial services insiders from the UK and beyond. The document forecasts that in 2018, US stock prices


City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”
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Re: City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 15:50:54

AdamB wrote:

Coming dramatic decline of US stock prices would trigger global recession, finds grim forecast to be explored at roundtable hosted by British financial services think-tank Published as part of the launch of the new beta platform for INSURGE intelligence, a crowdfunded journalism platform for people and planet.


City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”

So now we have crowdfunded sources of doomer propaganda publishing, masquerading as "think tanks"?

Bravo! Zerohedge would be so proud.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 17:29:35

How is that worse that so called Government "think tanks" spewing out Government canards? Question for Outcast.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 17:57:45

onlooker wrote:How is that worse that so called Government "think tanks" spewing out Government canards? Question for Outcast.

Inherently, it's not.

Each claim (and each group, based on the body of their claims and their evidence) needs to be evaluated, based on what they produce.

In this example, given the track record of economic prognosticators forecasting short term market drops of about half, given the state of the US and global economy, I'm not impressed with validating this effort by calling it a "think tank".

...

And are the "canards" you speak of the ones who use evidence based on objective data to do things like measure inflation or GDP? Or are they forecasters who ignore much of the economic data on the ground to make some political point?

Because to me, there is a WORLD of difference between such groups.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 18:08:33

If you bother to research you will see that many many revelations have come out by whisteblowers and such which refute the"purity" of the the data and communication being emitted by government and other official sources. In fact this is what fascinates me and motivates me, to find out where this is occurring and find out the "truth" about a plethora of subjects. Take as one example albeit an extreme one 911. It is a pretty damning case against the official explanation. Or how about something like the obfuscation by cigarette companies for many years about their product or Exxon Mobile. And look at the revelations of Snowden relative to clandestine monitoring by the NSA etc.
So, this is what certain think tanks and other institutional entities are sometimes emitting. They are emitting false and fraudent information or conclusions based on false data.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 21:50:28

onlooker wrote:In fact this is what fascinates me and motivates me, to find out where this is occurring and find out the "truth" about a plethora of subjects. Take as one example albeit an extreme one 911. It is a pretty damning case against the official explanation.

Are you talking the 911 truther movement?

If that's damning against the physical evidence, I'm a house cat.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 22:20:33

911 was a setup and Exxon Lies is basically all you need to know about where this whacko is coming from.
Why am I not surprised. :roll:
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 22:43:40

Truther. :lol: Now I know why onlooker got sucked in so easily by the ETP model.
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