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New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 20:14:25

This deserves its own thread. :)

Even beating out the highest month waaaay back in 1970! :shock:

LINKY

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Abundance Aplenty. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 20:22:21

Yep. ASPO shut down at the right time.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 21:47:44

Unconventional development is actually spreading in the US, despite breathless commentary claiming otherwise.
A new 100,000 bbld pipeline is being proposed for the Powder River Basin.
EOG just drilled and completed a 16,000+ foot deep well targeting the Austin Chalk in Ayovelles parish, LA.
Cabot is preparing to drill in Ashland county, Ohio, and the target formation (unknown at present) is not the Utica. Rumors floating it could be the Trenton Black River.
The Rogersville in Kentucky is slowly being tested while the Uinta is in its early stages of development.
Argentina is picking up the tempo, the UK is weeks away from fracturing its very first shale well, and the results from China's Fuling formation are surprising to the strong upside.

While there should be no doubt that natgas production will span many decades, oil output should be very strong far off into the foreseeable future.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 09:19:38

ExxonMobil Corp. has added 2.7 billion boe of proved oil and gas reserves in 2017, replacing 183% of production. ExxonMobil’s proved reserves totaled 21.2 billion boe at yearend 2017. Liquids represented 57% of the reserves, up from 53% in 2016. ExxonMobil’s reserves life at current production rates is 14 years.

Part of the increase was due to previously uneconomic reserve reserves being reclassified due to the higher oil price. Just as reserves were lost when prices collapsed.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 18:46:15

The doomer community is going to be SO mad at you folks for pointing such things out, especially coffeeguy for daring to mention the potential for oil fracking not to be a short term blip.

I can just see shorty's, onlooker's, et al heads exploding with fury. (Never mind the veracity of the comments -- good news re economics or oil production isn't politically correct around these parts).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby KingM » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 18:50:17

I'm not a doomer, but it obviously can't grow exponentially forever. What is the all time peak going to be? I'm guessing we're close, at most 1.5-2.0 mpb away. Optimistically.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 19:09:35

KingM wrote:I'm not a doomer, but it obviously can't grow exponentially forever.

I certainly wouldn't call pointing out a tiny increase after 4ish decades anything remotely like a claim of exponential growth. Rather a confirmation that the claims of in-our-face doom via lack of oil are not exactly looking accurate.

I'm no corny. I have NO problem with the idea of finite resources, and believe that continued irresponsible population growth is by far humanity's largest long term problem (which we just keep making worse).

My problem with the hard core fast crash doomer community is the denial of physical and economic reality if it involves good news, coupled with the insistence (and horde of nonsensical short term predictions) of "inevitable" short term physical and/or financial doom.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 18:47:34

It's telling that this thread, started Feb 8, has only 6 replies, while the "Fast Crash" thread over the same period of time has almost 30 replies. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 20:31:34

KingM wrote:I'm not a doomer, but it obviously can't grow exponentially forever.


Nothing can grow exponentially forever. Oil is no different.

KingM wrote:What is the all time peak going to be? I'm guessing we're close, at most 1.5-2.0 mpb away. Optimistically.


You mean, the NEXT peak? Again? Or the ones after the next one?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Cog » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 21:11:27

copious.abundance wrote:It's telling that this thread, started Feb 8, has only 6 replies, while the "Fast Crash" thread over the same period of time has almost 30 replies. :roll:


Bad news sells papers or in this case a discredited ETP paper. Same as it ever was around here.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Feb 2018, 21:18:59

copious.abundance wrote:It's telling that this thread, started Feb 8, has only 6 replies, while the "Fast Crash" thread over the same period of time has almost 30 replies. :roll:


You know where you are.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby charmcitysking » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 06:57:14

copious.abundance wrote:It's telling that this thread, started Feb 8, has only 6 replies, while the "Fast Crash" thread over the same period of time has almost 30 replies. :roll:


Seems like the only thing it is telling is that there is a lot more to talk about for one subject than the other.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 09:31:33

copious.abundance wrote:It's telling that this thread, started Feb 8, has only 6 replies, while the "Fast Crash" thread over the same period of time has almost 30 replies. :roll:


The fast-crash doom thread, in a nutshell:

Image
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby marmico » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 12:55:02

Will there be a month in 2018 when world oil production exceeds the November 2016 record of 82.4 million barrels per day?

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 14:22:39

Dont shale wells drop like 90% production within a few years.

If this is production after drop and can be sustained could be something. If this is not and 2-3 years from now there will be 90% less coming out from these wells not seeing things all that rosy.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby tita » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 05:49:38

Darian S wrote:Dont shale wells drop like 90% production within a few years.

If this is production after drop and can be sustained could be something. If this is not and 2-3 years from now there will be 90% less coming out from these wells not seeing things all that rosy.

Currently, around 45% of LTO production comes from wells that came online in the last year, and 70% from wells that came online in the last 3 years.

Depletion is indeed fast, like 80% in the first three years... But then the depletion gets slower... 2011 production is still over 10% of its initial rate.

What is also impressive is how operators managed to get much higher initial rate than older wells. We talked a lot about sweet spots being drilled first... But using longer laterals and different proppants, they were able to get higher rates with half of the drillings made in 2013. This is why we can't compare the rig count today with the 2013 or 14.

There is anyway something that buggers me, and I will probably know the answer only in a few months. US production surged in the months from September to November in an astonishing way (+800 kb/d), much greater than what we could expect, even if we take account of the shale increase. I think it's probably a conjunction of several factors happening at the same time. Recovery of EFS from hurricanes, Bakken and Niorbara going through DUC wells, new pipeline for the Bakken, etc. Looking at the DPR from eia, september and october have the biggest increase in the history of LTO. There is also probably something with conventional production too.

I think it's quite clear that US production is not going to stall... Some (and also I) thought that EFS and Bakken were done... And it's not the case, they are also increasing, less than the Permian but anyway.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby marmico » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 07:52:26

US production surged in the months from September to November in an astonishing way (+800 kb/d), much greater than what we could expect, even if we take account of the shale increase.


Production rose 553 kb/d based on the January 2018 EIA print.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/pdf/table1.pdf
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby tita » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 10:00:41

marmico wrote:
US production surged in the months from September to November in an astonishing way (+800 kb/d), much greater than what we could expect, even if we take account of the shale increase.


Production rose 553 kb/d based on the January 2018 EIA print.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/pdf/table1.pdf

I was talking about the increase of 3 months, so November (10'038) minus August (9'192). And offshore production was the same in November and August (1'666, $atan was there!).

The table also clearly show how production was slow until August and just shoot up for the next 3 months.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby marmico » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 10:49:22

I was talking about the increase of 3 months


You made an error. We all do. No big deal. Fess up and move on before you dig a deeper hole. Just key board it correctly next time - from August 2018 to November 2018 (3 months) US oil production increased 848 kb/d based on the EIA January 2018 print which will be subsequently revised.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 13:10:17

tita wrote:
What is .... impressive is how operators managed to get much higher initial rate than older wells. We talked a lot about sweet spots being drilled first... But using longer laterals and different proppants, they were able to get higher rates with half of the drillings made in 2013. This is why we can't compare the rig count today with the 2013 or 14.


Its not surprising that much longer horizontal completions would generate more oil then shorter ones. However, don't forget that longer completions also cost more money so the net gain in profitability isn't all that great.

tita wrote:
I think it's quite clear that US production is not going to stall... Some (and also I) thought that EFS and Bakken were done... And it's not the case, they are also increasing, less than the Permian but anyway.


I beg to differ. Its physically impossible for US oil shale production to go up forever. At some point it will inevitably stall. I've suggested elsewhere that this may occur ca. 2020.

Cheers!
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