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Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 16:49:14

vt - "I can't imagine a real peak oil, where high prices fail to increase supply and a decline in supply persists...". I take it you expect oil prices will be high when we reach that magical date of global PO. I see no justification for that assumption. In fact we may have just reached GPO during the same time oil prices crashed. That dynamic thingy again: low oil prices force producers to max production while those same low oil prices inhibit the development of new production. But the period of high oil prices produces increased production that can carry over into the low oil price period. That combined with producers try to max revenue results in what may eventually prove to be GPO: lower oil prices during the period of record breaking oil production rates. And during high oil price periods smart producers deliver less the max production to preserve reserves while still generating acceptable revenue.

Essentially that same confusing dynamic we've seem many times: the time lag factor.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 18:19:20

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - " I take it you expect oil prices will be high when we reach that magical date of global PO.

If not on that date then shortly thereafter.
And once peak oil truly sets in they will stay high and trend ever higher to balance demand to the steadily decreasing supply. I'm talking about when all the mega fields have peaked and no producer has any excess or reserve capacity to flood the market in response to higher prices.
Peak only comes when the entire worldwide industry can not increase production regardless of the price and that won't come until the Saudi, Iranian and Russian reserves have been fully developed and pumped to decline.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 04:26:11

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.


It's not an issue of PO vs. POD but the latter based on the former.

Also, that constant reference to oneself in the third person reminds me of this wrestler. LOL.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 06:10:21

ralfy wrote:
Also, that constant reference to oneself in the third person reminds me of this wrestler. LOL.

This is not a creative writing contest and we don't need any grammar or spelling Nazis .
Tend to your own style, which needs work, and leave other people alone.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 21:18:18

vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 21:50:34

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.

Shortly means the time it takes for a shortfall in supply to eat up any glut then present and then have the resulting higher prices send out drill rigs, both land based and deep water, to drill the only remaining likely spots and have them come up dry or at least not wet enough to fill the demand gap. Given the time it takes to plan, build and execute a deep water project it certainly could take a few years.
The interesting point will be when a majority of the public becomes convinced that oil has peaked. Might not have much to do with the reality of what remains in the ground but will be enough to change governments and start wars.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 23:49:09

vtsnowedin wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:vt - "If not on that date then shortly thereafter". And there's the rub, eh? Define "shortly": 2 months...2 years...4 years? Remember some think global oil production peaked in 2016. Maybe...maybe not. It would take decades of lower production to develop much confidence that it did. But lets assume it has. After all it might actually have peaked. And what did we see oil prices do just before GPO: they crashed. And a year plus after: still lower then they had been a few years ago.

Again depending on how you define "shortly" I would expect prices to be lower for several years around GPO. High oil prices hurt economies and oil prices fall. Low oil prices = less drilling = less oil production. Just as we saw in 1979 when global oil production peaked. And high prices reduced demand and led to less drilling. Then it took 10 years for global oil production to reach the previous peak rate. Even more important: it took almost 30 years for oil prices to recover to the pre-1979 level.

So does that mean "shortly" could be 10 years? Or 30 years? Or even longer? A complex dynamic with feedback loops and lag times that could stretch out for decades. Which explains why I consider the actual date of GPO to be RELATIVELY unimportant.

Shortly means the time it takes for a shortfall in supply to eat up any glut then present and then have the resulting higher prices send out drill rigs, both land based and deep water, to drill the only remaining likely spots and have them come up dry or at least not wet enough to fill the demand gap. Given the time it takes to plan, build and execute a deep water project it certainly could take a few years.
The interesting point will be when a majority of the public becomes convinced that oil has peaked. Might not have much to do with the reality of what remains in the ground but will be enough to change governments and start wars.

and economic chaos

The stock market/economy is built on sentiment
I
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Antaris » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 00:17:28

I remember a news clip from some 15 years ago. Fireworks inside a nightclub ignighted the interior. The video the ( ) news filmagrapher took showed people partially out of the exit door from the bottom all the way to the top but so plugged nobody could move or escape. Makes me think of the stock market today. When panic sets in from who knows what, most won't make it out.
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Will Peak Oil Come Anytime Soon?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 18:34:47

Our taste change, technologies evolve, live goes on and whether we like it or not, the world changes every day. To put it bluntly, change is inevitable. Although it’s an inevitable reality of our world, it doesn’t mean that we’re on the verge of it. On January 24, 2018, British Petroleum (BP) held its annual Energy Outlook forum. At this discussion, BP tells its investors and other interested parties its short and long term predictions for the petroleum industry. Far from the bearish outlook on the petroleum market held by some observers, British Petroleum was considerably bullish in its outlook. In their report, the company concluded that oil demand will continue growing into the 2050’s due to projected growth in the plastic goods market. Similar to BP’s position, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced in November 2017 that, despite a


Will Peak Oil Come Anytime Soon?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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