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deluge thread 2018

deluge thread 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 15:09:20

Europe experiencing extreme flooding especially Paris
Some dramatic pics
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/paris- ... ce-floods/
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 22:11:36

That was from two years ago
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 09:25:28

dohboi wrote:That was from two years ago

This time it clearly says 2018 8)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... 0f5e83b96d

Flood of the century’ fears rise in Paris along with the Seine
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 09:29:32

dohboi wrote:That was from two years ago


......Fast forward two years......

Hundreds evacuated from homes amid flooding fears in Paris

Image



Almost 400 people have been evacuated from their homes in the Paris region as a precaution as rivers across France kept swelling.

Thirteen departments across the country remained on alert for floods as heavy rainfall continued to batter many regions.

In addition to Paris, where the Seine river is expected to keep rising until Saturday, the other regions threatened are in the north and east of the country.

Seven other departments in central France have been placed on alert for snow and ice. .....
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/e ... 32090.html
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 13:28:04

D'oh!!

Yup, I just heard this on the news and slapped my head for not triple checking before making assumptions!

Wow. I wonder how many sigmas out it is for that level of happening this often there!
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 02:48:49

Historically speaking flooding of the Seine was quite common. Paris has actually been doing pretty good the last few decades with less floods, but like everything else in a natural system conditions fluctuate. Perhaps we will see decades of frequent floods once again?
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:18:11

I'm not sure what time frame you are thinking of, but this level of rain seems to be rare over the last century at least for this time of year.

France has seen rain like this over the New Year period only three times in the last century.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42841615

More here:
"Because of climate change, we can expect floods in the Seine basin to be at least as frequent as they are right now," Florence Habets, a senior researcher at the France's national center for scientific research, told the newspaper. "No matter what we say, the more we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the more we reduce our impact on droughts and floods."


https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way ... crest-soon
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 20:17:46

dohboi wrote:I'm not sure what time frame you are thinking of, but this level of rain seems to be rare over the last century at least for this time of year.

France has seen rain like this over the New Year period only three times in the last century.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42841615

More here:
"Because of climate change, we can expect floods in the Seine basin to be at least as frequent as they are right now," Florence Habets, a senior researcher at the France's national center for scientific research, told the newspaper. "No matter what we say, the more we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the more we reduce our impact on droughts and floods."


https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way ... crest-soon


Not sure what you are looking for, but people have been building flood control dikes on the Seine river since it was a Roman colony back in the first century. The bg deal is, with cheap fossil fuels we raised and strengthened the dimes a great deal on all rivers since the 1850’s so now when a flood breaks through people see it as a catastrophe nstead of part of the natural cycle. I had freind in Saint Louis in the 1990’s that got hit with three major floods in a decade. Before the Army Engineers diked the whole oength of the Mississippi floods were an annual thing when the spring rains added to the snow melt, but modern folks have gotten used to floods being contained by manmade dikes. So when the dikes fail people freak out,
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 13:22:18

We've all been talking pretty much from anecdotes here...kinda interesting but ultimately not very useful.

This report says that no clear pattern has yet emerged for much of Europe wrt increased flooding over the last couple hundred years, but that, though there are many hard-to-pit-down variables, most models predict an increase in flooding for most of Frances major rivers over the next century.

https://www.climatechangepost.com/france/river-floods/
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 14:49:35

dohboi - "...most models predict an increase in flooding for most of Frances major rivers over the next century." Which seems to imply that there are some models that don't. So does the majority rule? Not to hurt my arm by patting myself on the back but every one of dozen of models indicated there was no residual oil left to produce in my target field. Including the two models my company paid for. All but one said no producible oil: mine. So my owner ignored the rest and drilled my well. And it came in flowing 300 bopd and no water. My model was based upon a form of compartmentalization I've never seen offered in any peer publication. And I couldn't write about it either at the time as per my owner's confidentiality clause. But my company has changed hands and I'm writing a publication now. And will mail copies to every butt head that said geologists don't know shit about reservoir engineering. LOL.

None of which proves the majority of the weather models are wrong. But being in the majority also doesn't prove they are correct either, does it?
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 15:03:59

Nice anecdote, and of course there are always going to be some unknowns, especially when trying to make predictions about specific locations (and, as Yogi Bera would say, about the future :) ).

In this case, you do have some pretty basic physics to fall back on.

A warmer world will hold more water vapor in its atmosphere (an increase of about 7% water vapor for every degree C increase, iirc). That water vapor will come down somewhere, more often suddenly and in large quantities in most places. The far interior of continents generally will have less of this affect as they are far from the sea and will likely dry out generally, since the extra heat also can do a nice job of drying things out.

But of course the topography of individual locations will have the largest effect, along with how loss of Arctic sea ice affects weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere (and beyond).

Because there are some unknowns, as there always will be, does not mean that we know nothing at all.

ETA: Physics dictates (and this is already happening) that a warming world will see the Hadley cell expand, and as it does, the dryness zone now associated with the Sahara Desert will move first into southern Europe (probably already part of what is happening in a drying Spain, Italy and Greece, last I looked), and then into central Europe. Probably the exact timing of these competing tendencies affecting specific areas accounts for some of the disagreement in models.
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 04 Feb 2018, 14:21:57

https://watchers.news/2018/02/04/massiv ... ord-highs/

Massive floods hit Argentina as Pilcomayo River reaches record highs
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 14:38:02

Extreme rainstorms becoming more common in Seattle, says city meteorologist

Attention, Seattle residents: Have you noticed more steady, long-lasting rainstorms in a city better known for gray skies, short showers and drizzle? Turns out you’re on to something.

Over the last 15 years, the city’s had more extreme rain, according to a new study by Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) officials, who say the weather is a climate-change preview.

“This confirms our anecdotal evidence,” said James Rufo-Hill, an SPU meteorologist. “For years, people have been saying, ‘I think the rain is getting worse around here,’ and now the data shows that.”


https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... orologist/
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 06:28:09

https://watchers.news/2018/02/06/deadly ... -rainfall/

Deadly floods and landslides hit Indonesia after extreme rainfall
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