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The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 26 May 2009, 10:18:22

Some of you may recall Hughes's excellent work from 2005 on the future of NG. This is an updated version of his presentation on hydrocarbons: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma: Powering the Future in a Finite World. Lots of excellent graphs in there:

Image
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Tue 26 May 2009, 10:33:43



I saw David speak recently. He is top notch IMHO.

A couple of surprises from his presentation

Canadian NG is declining at 4.5%/yr.
US NG wells increased by 300% but production only increased by 15%
In Canada a 400% increase in NG drilling resulted in only a 10% increase in production.
26 LNG terminals have been canceled. 92% of existing LNG capacity is empty.
No one has produced gas hydrates
Carbon capture requires a 30% energy penalty.

hows that for peak doom porn?
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby cualcrees » Tue 26 May 2009, 17:33:51

I particulary love this tidbit:

"DEPLETION from all fields is 5-6%/year, hence about 5 million
barrels per day of new production must be added each year to offset
depletion and meet demand growth - the equivalent of SIX NEW SAUDI
ARABIA‟S MUST BE FOUND AND DEVELOPED BY 2030."

8O
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."
- Edward Abbey
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby Voice_du_More » Wed 27 May 2009, 11:18:13

Whenever you try to put this energy issue into the broader context you run into population issues. The fact is human population is in overshoot because of 'how' we implemented cheap oil. The carrying capacity under sustainable alternative energies is barely half of where we are now. That is only one possible scenario and one of the most hopeful. It assumes we end up with a couple billion smart 'new westerners' who have the maturity to live within the limits. The other more likely scenario given human nature is a continuous decline with intermittent wars. The population will continue to grow even though every new birth is lowering the world standard of living, and in the end we find we have failed to realize any of our sustainable dreams because the whole world is a giant Darfur.

I remember this LNG report from '05. I was looking into LNG because somebody was saying it made peak oil a non-issue etc. etc.

Hydrates...yes, if these things were so cost effective and plentiful we would have tapped them before tar sands. That is all that needs to be said. This notion that the technology did not exist is nonsense. If they can find a way to make an octupus rig pump oil up from 5000 feet of ocean they could have, if there was any real potential, gotten hydrates up as well. No, the only thing hydrates will do is set the oceans ablaze as we reach that climate tipping point just like every other advertisement of our failure to be good stewards.

The small number who do get it, spiritually, intellectually, materially, are simply too few to change the direction of the masses. That is one of the realizations that reason forces on you when you dance with the crude oil maiden (peak oil.)

Thanks for the info.
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Heinberg: U.S. Energy Abundance for Now— But Don’t Peek Behi

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 05 Feb 2018, 22:33:27

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy is about to release its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2018, with forecasts for American oil, gas, and other forms of energy production through mid-century. As usual, energy journalists and policy makers will probably take the document as gospel. That’s despite the fact that past AEO reports have regularly delivered forecasts that were seriously flawed, as the EIA itself has acknowledged. Further, there are analysts inside and outside the oil and gas industry who crunch the same data the EIA does, but arrive at very different conclusions. The last few EIA reports have displayed stunning optimism regarding future U.S. shale gas and tight oil production, helping stoke the notion of U.S. “energy dominance.” No one doubts that fracking has unleashed a gusher of North American oil and gas on world markets in the past decade


Heinberg: U.S. Energy Abundance for Now— But Don’t Peek Behind That Curtain!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby MD » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 08:32:22

There is no energy shortage. Never was. It's all about how we are using available supplies, in all their forms. That is what is changing.

Yes, it really is -just- that simple.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby GHung » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 11:03:05

MD wrote:There is no energy shortage. Never was. It's all about how we are using available supplies, in all their forms. That is what is changing.

Yes, it really is -just- that simple.


Not quite that simple since a large chunk of the economy makes its living off of discretionary uses of 'surplus' energy.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 12:11:31

The telling argument: In the absence of cheap FF energy, depending upon feeble alternative and renewable energy sources, the carrying capacity of this planet is less than half the current world population.

That's the kernel of truth wrapped in a nutshell. If you live in a prosperous country, able to afford the coming energy price increases, you probably will survive. If you live in a place where life is tough and things are not improving, your best bet is to become a refugee to a better place.

The end of the world started about 1960. You could believe that or deny it, it is entirely up to you. The best definition of the 1% would be those that are most determined to not suffer a decline, by rising above the hapless 99%.
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 12:30:09

On the bright side, I do believe we have made substantial inroads into conservation, energy saving devices and technology. Plus, the knowhow and acumen of humanity has been increasing cumulatively and that counts for something despite energy shortfalls. We also have infrastucture all over the planet already built out, so that is good too. I just hope Mother Earth will cooperate and continue to be at least somewhat bountiful, so humanity may not suffer such a horrendous demise and die off.
Last edited by onlooker on Tue 06 Feb 2018, 12:41:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 12:37:14

Wow, that one is hard to parse.
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 06 Feb 2018, 12:40:13

Lemmings, all of us :-D
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby MD » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 00:44:32

jedrider wrote:Lemmings, all of us :-D


for the most part.

regarding my post up thread "there is no shortage of energy", that's true, but that does mean we aren't faced with an epic problem with regard to energy and resource utilization. That big fusion furnace up in the sky dumps more energy our way than we could possibly use. It's been a while since I've done the math, but if I recall correctly, just a square mile or two of desert receives energy at a rate that exceeds humanity's total consumption rate. Yeah, I know... Resource and infrastructure to capture it and get it to market.

Hydrocarbons won't get us there, because we insist on being lemmings, pissing away that resource on being lazy. Silly people.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: The Energy Sustainability Dilemma - Dave Hughes

Unread postby MD » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 01:17:18

Image

I'm not into picking up social media quotes, but this one seems fitting. I doubt the attribution is real, but whatever.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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