shortonoil wrote:"He said "nobody gets this right because there are no facts about the future" ( a great phrase I thought) and that their projections can best be thought of a mode of more than a few conditional probability distributions."
In our Report in section:
4.3 - EIA Determination of CPF:
We show that the EIA estimate (through an energy analysis) could not have deviated between 1960 and 1999 by more than 1% from the actual production volume. The EIA's production determinations were extremely good. The probability distribution that they were following was the CDF (cumulative distribution function) not the PDF of the logistics function. The PDF was for presentations to the API.
A chip off the old Hubbert block!
Before you even ask? There is 140,000 BTU in the average gallon of crude that comes out of the ground.
ROCKMAN wrote:Just currious: in 1960 what did the EIA predict US production would be in the early 70's when we reached PO?
onlooker wrote:Thought you peak oilers would find this interesting.
2016 Shale Reality Check: Web Presentation
http://www.postcarbon.org/2016-shale-re ... sentation/
A key point I found upon skimming through it was this:
-EIA projections of long term growth in tight oil and shale gas at low prices are extremely optimistic and highly questionable.
shortonoil wrote:"This one from ( http://www.euanmearns.com/ ) shows a peak in July 2008:
What is not being considered in this graph is that from 2004 to present condensate production as a total of C&C has increased from 3% to 14%, or more (see post by West Texas: Dr. Brown). Condensate which is >90% pentane does not contain sufficient C7+ molecules for it to be used in the production of fuels. It is primarily a source of feedstock. From a fuel production aspect the ability to produce those fuels has most likely not increased since 2006.
There's something odd about the U.S. oil production boom. Yes, the U.S. is now a player on the world energy stage, producing enough to strike fear into the hearts of OPEC's member states. Crude oil production in the U.S. has practically doubled in just 10 years and is now approaching the production levels of OPEC's leader, Saudi Arabia. US Crude Oil Production data by YCharts. That the shale revolution changed the very fabric of the American oil industry is an understatement. Until the ability to frack rock and drill horizontally came along, U.S. oil production had been on a slow, downward slog from its peak in the early 1970s. Now, the sky is the limit -- with the president of the United States calling for U.S. energy independence. But according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), there is something very wrong with
He said that even if technologies are invented to access the deeper and less productive shale, they would likely be[b] prohibitively expensive, given that the price of oil is falling rapidly, recently dipping below $90 a barrel.
“When you go out into the fringe areas, it’s not going to be worth it to drill unless oil is [b]$130 a barrel,” he said.
onlooker wrote:http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/11/10/sapping-the-sweetspotshowlongwillusenergyboomreallylast.htmlHe said that even if technologies are invented to access the deeper and less productive shale, they would likely be[b] prohibitively expensive, given that the price of oil is falling rapidly, recently dipping below $90 a barrel.
“When you go out into the fringe areas, it’s not going to be worth it to drill unless oil is [b]$130 a barrel,” he said.
How did it work out for the Economy last time the Oil price meandered around this level. NOT WELL
Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests