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D. J. Trump Administration Geopolitics Pt. 3

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 05:17:07

The Trump administration slapped a 30% tax on imported solar panels Monday in a move that critics say could slow down a fast-growing industry and kill tens of thousands of domestic manufacturing jobs.

The administration's decision followed a trade case brought by two U.S. solar manufacturers. They contended that cheap solar equipment from China and other countries hurt their businesses. Trump had long promised to boost manufacturing jobs by cracking down on Chinese imports.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/01/22/trumps-30-tariff-imported-solar-panels-may-cost-jobs/1056440001/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/breaking-trump-admin-issues-a-30-solar-tariff#gs.CYFzkLE
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-trump-administration-slaps-30-tariff-on-imported-solar-panels-2018-1
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby Cog » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 07:43:54

Excellent first move to restore fair trading practices.
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 12:33:18

Always winners and losers on the same side in a trade war. Losers: commercial solar builders in Texas that were just beginning to boom. Which also means Texas electricity consumers lose. Winners: US solar panel builders. But just how much have they won? If the increased cost of panels kills much of the solar expansion in Texas and elsewhere the US panel builders may not see much of an increase in output. IOW perhaps a bit of a profit and not much volume. Few commercial manufacturers succeed without significant sales volumes.

Appliance makers might fair better: no one has to buy solar panels. That only happens when investors see a profit potential. But when someone's washing machine or frig breaks down they buy a new one. When one pulls the tariff trigger they need to be aware of the nature of its buyer market. Otherwise you might shoot yourself in the foot. LOL.
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 15:48:58

ROCKMAN wrote:Winners: US solar panel builders.


Like Tesla (aka SolarCity)

https://electrek.co/2017/08/31/tesla-so ... olar-roof/

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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 17:55:17

Winners: US solar panel builders. But just how much have they won? If the increased cost of panels kills much of the solar expansion in Texas and elsewhere the US panel builders may not see much of an increase in output.


I believe that some of the parts required to assemble a solar panel are also part of the new tariff, not just assembled panels. So unless plants in the US are set up to build cells from scratch profitably then there is likely few winners here.
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 18:29:54

The Chinese largely killed off US manufacturing jobs from 2010-12 by dumping solar panels into the US market at prices below cost during Obama's first term. Obama, being a total wimp, did nothing and the US manufacturing sector for solar panels was largely wiped out.

chinese-dumping-cheap-solar-panels-us-market

Solar energy is going to more and more important going forward. Its a key industry for the future. It was crazy for Obama to let the Chinese destroy our solar manufacturing base, especially when the US largely invented solar energy and solar cells. Lets hope Trump succeeds in reviving the US solar cell manufacturing sector with this new tariff.

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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 18:41:24

asg70 wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Winners: US solar panel builders.


Like Tesla (aka SolarCity)

https://electrek.co/2017/08/31/tesla-so ... olar-roof/

I don't actually see that impacting Tesla much.

I've looked at the Tesla solar roof, since given time, once well proven and the battery costs for the Tesla Powerwall battery used for a backup solution fall -- this looks like a solid candidate for the solar roof solution I want.

However, these glass tiles are not really direct competitors for regular PV solar panels, IMO, as they are far more expensive. They are adding aesthetics (and for me, durability and less risk, like not punching a bunch of holes in your roof, worries about strong spring winds damaging the panels, etc) -- but at a significant price premium (which I'm OK with to a point, for a one time highly reliable solution. Opinons will vary, of course).

So for a parallel example, if Toyota drops the price of a top of the line Lexus by 5%, that makes it a better deal compared to, say, a Honda Accord. However, since it isn't really competing in that market segment, it's not going to impact the Accord/Camry/Fusion market to a meaningful degree.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 18:47:23

Plantagenet wrote:The Chinese largely killed off US manufacturing jobs from 2010-12 by dumping solar panels into the US market at prices below cost during Obama's first term. Obama, being a total wimp, did nothing and the US manufacturing sector for solar panels was largely wiped out.

chinese-dumping-cheap-solar-panels-us-market

Solar energy is going to more and more important going forward. Its a key industry for the future. It was crazy for Obama to let the Chinese destroy our solar manufacturing base, especially when the US largely invented solar energy and solar cells. Lets hope Trump succeeds in reviving the US solar cell manufacturing sector with this new tariff.

Cheers!

That will likely be the argument the GOP makes.

However, in what world do you think Trump (and much of his base) being climate deniers has nothing to do with it? I'd say it has EVERYTHING to do with this choice.

Long term, if it helps US panel makers compete to a meaningful degree, great. I just don't expect ANYONE left of center to be buying that as the real motive.

After all, aren't there all kinds of industries that claim "unfair" Chinese competition? Shouldn't Trump be helping them just as much? Or even more if more economic damage is (supposedly) being done?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump Imposes 30% Import Tariff on Solar Panels

Unread postby Cog » Tue 23 Jan 2018, 20:23:32

Perhaps Trump is looking to the future of solar and its necessity and want those panels produced right here instead of overseas. That way we are not at the mercy of a foreign country who could shut us off at any time.
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Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 13:15:31

Trump: ‘We are going to have the Space Force’
by Sandra Erwin — June 18, 2018
Image
President Trump and Vice President Pence kick off the third meeting of the National Space Council June 18.

Trump can order the Pentagon to create a Space Force but only Congress can make it happen.
WASHINGTON — President Trump on Monday threw a wrench into the Pentagon’s carefully laid out plans to analyze how best to reorganize the military’s space forces. In remarks kicking off a meeting of the National Space Council, Trump pointedly directed the Pentagon to create a Space Force as a “separate but equal” branch of the U.S. military.

“We are going to have the Air Force, and we are going to have the Space Force. Separate but equal. It is going to be something,” Trump said. “I’m hereby directing the department of Defense and the Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the armed forces. That’s a big statement.”

Addressing Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump said, “If you would carry that assignment out, I would be greatly honored.”

According to sources, Trump’s remarks were not off-the-cuff. He had planned to make this announcement weeks ago, and Pentagon officials had been advised the president would be directing the creation of a Space Force at the June 18 National Space Council meeting. Trump mentioned his desire to have a Space Force at four different events in recent months, and the feedback he received was mostly positive, which motivated him to get the process started sooner rather than later.

So what comes next? Congress has to rewrite Title 10 of the United States Code that outlines the roles and missions of the armed forces. “The president proposes, but Congress disposes,” pointed out Doug Loverro, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy. Loverro is an adviser to congressional committees and has been a proponent of a separate military service for space.

“Only Congress can organize the military,” Loverro told SpaceNews.

The National Defense Authorization Act of 1947 created the Air Force. The Air Force today oversees about 90 percent of the military’s space funding, programs and personnel. Conceivably the 2019 NDAA that is now going through the legislative cycle could create the Space Force, Loverro said, although Congress would have to give the Defense Department at least one or two years to execute such a large reorganization.

“General Dunford can do a lot in preparation for it,” he said. “But at the end of the day it requires Congress to create a new service.”

According to a defense official, “The Joint Staff will work closely with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, other DoD stakeholders and the Congress to implement the President’s guidance.”

At the White House on Monday, Trump talked about the Space Force in the context of his broader concerns about the United States’ dominance in space being challenged by China and Russia.

Although he believes the military today is dominant in space, he wants more, Trump told Dunford: “Congratulations on your tremendous success but we’re going to have far more success.”

Creating a Space Force and promoting space exploration by NASA and the private sector will be “important for the nation’s psyche,” he said. “It’s going to be important monetarily and militarily. … We don’t want China and Russia and other countries leading us. We’re going to be the leader by far.”

White House spokesman Raj Shah said in a statement that the president wants the Pentagon to immediately begin the process to organize a Space Force. “The president’s National Strategy for Space calls for American leadership, preeminence, and freedom of action in space, and he sees a separate service focused on space as a critical piece of that end state,” said Shah. “The National Space Council and other White House offices will work closely with the Department of Defense on successful implementation of the president’s direction.”

The president’s directive sets the stage for a contentious debate as the House and Senate prepare to hash out a final version of the 2019 NDAA. The House almost certainly will be enthused by the presidential push for a Space Force. In the past two years it has led efforts to create a Space Corps, but the legislation was opposed by the Senate and by the Pentagon.

“Last year out of a lot of frustration and a commitment to do better in space, we set up a separate Space Corps,” Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Mac Thornberry told reporters last week. The committee feels strongly that the U.S. military has to be better prepared and equipped to dominate in space, Thornberry said. “As we get all these briefings about what adversaries are doing, our dependence on space, it’s clear that we have to do better,” he added. “Organizational changes don’t fix all the problems. But on the other hand they can sometimes help make sure space gets the kind of priority it should have, like cyber, as a domain of warfare.”

A tweet by Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat that is closely involved in space issues, suggested the president should not yet assume the Space Force is a done deal. “The president told a U.S. general to create a new Space Force as a sixth branch of the military, which generals tell me they don’t want,” Nelson tweeted on Monday. “Thankfully the president can’t do without Congress because now is NOT the time to rip the Air Force apart. Too many important issues at stake.”


I think it's a good idea, and the Air Force was definately getting too big for it's britches. But I want to quibble about one thing: There are NOT five branches of the USA Military, there are only four "armed forces" today: Army, Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard. That would be because the US Marines are part of the Navy. The US Coast Guard was formerly either the Dept. of Treasury (when I was a member), later the Department of Transportation (after it was created), and still later the Dept. of Homeland Security (after it was created). If a war is declared, the USCG becomes part of the DOD in order to have a unified command structure. Additionally, sometimes the US Public Health service is called a "uniformed service", but it is definately not an "armed service".

I find myself in agreement with the idea, although I also agree with the above article that Trump cannot do this, Congress has to do so.

Original article is at: http://spacenews.com/trump-we-are-going-to-have-the-space-force/
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 15:30:51

As with all things, who is going to pay for that? Or what will be sacrificed to make that happen?
It's easy to toss out an idea that says "let's do X".

It's a very different kettle of fish to get backing, funding, resources, and actually make it happen.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 16:03:11

If one service is established with clear responsibility for space, then one result, and one motivation for establishing such a force, would be the possible economies and saving of resources that result.

If you think that the present organizations relating to space are efficient, think again. The Air Force of course has ICBMs and launch facilities such as Vandenburg AFB. But did you know that US Navy aircraft carriers have orbital launch capabilities and even anti-satellite weapons? Did you know that NASA and the NSA have capabilities that overlap and parallel the USAF and the USN and the US Army?

YES, there will now be five services sharing the Pentagon instead of four. Aside from that "administrative overhead", there is likely to be a net overall savings of resources and a synergy of new capabilities that result from combining the disparate space capabilities of the existing military space groups and the NRO (National Reconnaissance Office).
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Cog » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 16:43:29

Outcast_Searcher wrote:As with all things, who is going to pay for that? Or what will be sacrificed to make that happen?
It's easy to toss out an idea that says "let's do X".

It's a very different kettle of fish to get backing, funding, resources, and actually make it happen.


Let's not let the matter of a few trillion dollars stop us from confronting the aliens in deep space. Imagine how much tail a guy could pull in a Space Force uniform. Something in black with silver trim and medals is what I have in mind here. The contracts to build our new multi-mission fleet with lasers, particle beams, anti-matter torpedoes will make our defense industries rich.

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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 19:27:10

Cog wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:As with all things, who is going to pay for that? Or what will be sacrificed to make that happen?
It's easy to toss out an idea that says "let's do X".

It's a very different kettle of fish to get backing, funding, resources, and actually make it happen.


Let's not let the matter of a few trillion dollars stop us from confronting the aliens in deep space. Imagine how much tail a guy could pull in a Space Force uniform. Something in black with silver trim and medals is what I have in mind here. The contracts to build our new multi-mission fleet with lasers, particle beams, anti-matter torpedoes will make our defense industries rich.

Well, that's certainly a point re the uniforms. I thought our defense industries were already rich, but I suppose there's never too much profit from government programs. :)

If we weren't $20 trillion in debt (on the books) and counting, I'd be all for it IF other less than great spending were reduced to compensate. One example: weapon systems the Pentagon DOESN'T EVEN WANT, but certain folks inside the beltway insist on spending the money on, so their state "get's their share" of the defense business.

...

FWIW, my "how do we pay for that?" question applies to ALL new government program proposals from either side of the aisle. Even stuff I really like, like the various telescope programs -- cool and informative as that is, the money for it doesn't grow on trees.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Wed 20 Jun 2018, 20:22:54, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 19:43:07

My understanding is that the Space Force would take over existing space related operations that are currently being managed by the Air Force, Navy and other agencies. It's not going to result in a whole bunch of new activities in space as some reports would have you believe.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 20:27:18

yellowcanoe wrote:My understanding is that the Space Force would take over existing space related operations that are currently being managed by the Air Force, Navy and other agencies. It's not going to result in a whole bunch of new activities in space as some reports would have you believe.

If that's the case, then we're just talking about labels and organization structure, I guess.

So that's fine UNTIL some yahoo wants to spend manymany$billions on new programs for the "space force", without reducing any other Pentagon spending.

OTOH, if it's just a reorg/naming thing, it hardly seems to be news worth reporting on, much less having the POTUS tweet about it, unless I'm missing something.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Cog » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 21:40:58

If its a space (ship) it needs to be ran by the Navy. And of course if you intend to do planetary assaults and cool stuff like that you will need Marines. Now right now we can't actually travel to other planets to assault them or aliens to shoot once we get there, but that is a minor detail.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 21 Jun 2018, 01:44:39

The whole point is to save money by reducing the redundant functionality in multiple services. The Navy for example does not need to run the GPS satellite network even though they invented it. Duplicate functions exist in NRO and military spy satellites. The idea would be to transfer all space related activities to one service, then allow it to consolidate and lay off the redundant people. This happens in civilian life all the time as corporations merge.

All of the present applications with military significance are near Earth orbit hardware that is unmanned. Pure science and deep space missions are done by NASA as a civilian activities.

If there is any present "Star Wars" anti-ICBM tech, it will be a black program at the new Space Service.
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Re: Trump: "We are going to have the Space Force"

Unread postby Cog » Thu 21 Jun 2018, 07:58:54

SpaceX will get the job done. The USA is going to have manned spaceflight again by next year. Then we can tell the Russians to piss off.
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