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Any bets on future US daily production figures?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 10 Jan 2018, 21:05:44

Anyone willing to bet against the idea that the US won't crack 10 million barrels a day in crude oil and lease condensate production this month, if it hasn't done it already? Maybe this quarter?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby tita » Thu 11 Jan 2018, 02:03:07

Maybe... But:

- The EIA weekly estimates was reduced by 290kb/d this week, coming down to a daily production of 9'490 kb/d. This is maybe due to weather conditions.
- The latest monthly report estimated production at 9'637 kb/d in october. So, we need an increase of 400kb/d in three months to crack the 10 million barrels this month... This after the record growth of august and september (+450 kb/d).
- Latest STEO estimates Q4-2017 production at 9'800 kb/d and Q1-2018 at 10'040 kb/d. So, it's just a hair above the 10 millions barrels.

I agree that we are heading to this record. But I would be surprised if we reach it this month. But sure, if US production continue to show strong growth, we'll soon see this historical moment.
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby tita » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 16:07:20

So, you would have lost your bet... by being late.

US oil production reached 10'038 thousands barrels per day in november, according to the latest eia monthly report. It is just short of 6 thousands barrels per day from the peak of november 1970, 10'044 Mbbls/d

Yeah... quite a surprise!
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 17:14:27

tita wrote:
US oil production reached 10'038 thousands barrels per day in november, according to the latest eia monthly report. It is just short of 6 thousands barrels per day from the peak of november 1970, 10'044 Mbbls/d

Yeah... quite a surprise!


Impressive. The US should definitely crack M. King Hubbert's old 1970 peak this quarter...its probably hitting a new high even as we post.

Image
Nice try....better luck next time

Now that M. King Hubbert's prediction for US peak oil has been falsified, does anyone have a new prediction on when US oil production will reach another peak, and what the rate of oil production will be at the new peak?

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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 00:50:37

So the US is consuming 19.69 MBPD and producing 10 MBPD?
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 14:21:55

Plantagenet wrote:
tita wrote:
US oil production reached 10'038 thousands barrels per day in november, according to the latest eia monthly report. It is just short of 6 thousands barrels per day from the peak of november 1970, 10'044 Mbbls/d

Yeah... quite a surprise!


Impressive. The US should definitely crack M. King Hubbert's old 1970 peak this quarter...its probably hitting a new high even as we post.



Image

U.S. monthly crude oil production exceeds 10 million barrels per day, highest since 1970
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 14:24:35

Armageddon wrote:So the US is consuming 19.69 MBPD and producing 10 MBPD?


No. Your consumption number is wrong. It appears to be off by millions of barrels a day, if only because of rising US exports of refined products, hence, we aren't consuming them, but using them to manufacture petrochemical stuff for others.

5.6 million barrels a day of exports, according to this reference, from a couple days ago
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 14:56:06

I will go with Lucky 13! I think it may be possible for the USA to hit 13 MM/bbl/d, however if we do so I also believe it will lead to another price bust and production will steeply decline again for a while. Then when we get around to the next boom cycle the sweet spots will be long gone and fracking will be a numbers game of less and less profit from more and more wells.

This prediction has the same value as all my prior incorrect predictions, it is worth exactly what you paid for it, no more, no less.
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 20:51:01

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:So the US is consuming 19.69 MBPD and producing 10 MBPD?


No. Your consumption number is wrong. It appears to be off by millions of barrels a day, if only because of rising US exports of refined products, hence, we aren't consuming them, but using them to manufacture petrochemical stuff for others.

5.6 million barrels a day of exports, according to this reference, from a couple days ago




So we are basically consuming 14 MBPD and producing 10?
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Re: Any bets on future US daily production figures?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 00:20:35

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:So the US is consuming 19.69 MBPD and producing 10 MBPD?


No. Your consumption number is wrong. It appears to be off by millions of barrels a day, if only because of rising US exports of refined products, hence, we aren't consuming them, but using them to manufacture petrochemical stuff for others.

5.6 million barrels a day of exports, according to this reference, from a couple days ago


So we are basically consuming 14 MBPD and producing 10?


Depends on how we define "petroleum". Here is a recent EIA reference, putting production at 14+ million, and consumption at the number you mentioned, 19+ million, meaning that whatever they using as the definition, the difference sits at about 5 million a day coming from somewhere, that ain't the US. I imagine in this number is everything, as opposed to just the domestic oil and lease condensate numbers previously mentioned, and exports. All together, looks like we are 5 million/day short of whatever it is they are counting in this total.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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