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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 22:37:10

Ibon, you're a moderator. Use the ban-hammer and the discourse would improve.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 22:55:56

KaiserJeep wrote:
Newfie wrote:-snip-

No need to get caught with our pants down.


No, but there have been days lately when I thought that would be a welcome change to the routine.

I have fallen into a routine of waiting. Right now, I am waiting for the pool removal guys to give me a completion date. Then I'll wait for the landscapers. Then the numerous waits of selling a house. Then moving. We donated most of the MIL's stuff already, but her house is still furnished. We'll have to donate a lot more just to move in, and in any case we have to move into two bedrooms from three.

Waiting for Doom is a diversion from real waiting for my life to unfold through the next step.


Waiting, doing a lot of that lately. We are stuck in. Ergo Beach, FL waiting for a weather window to cross the Gulf Stream. MAYBE late next week.

Back OT as. 67 yo I’m not personally worried about cc. It may not even hit my kids hard, grandkids? Maybe. Perhaps the greatest short term risk is destabilization of Europe due to mass migration. I think a global financial collapse is a bigger short therm threat.

We have prepped for cc by paving the way for our kids to move to a better place should they see the need. But that’s uo to them.

We’ve prepped for financial collapse by having a wide based portfolio: rental property, real property, savings, 401k, social security. We may take a hit but are probably more diversified than the vast majority.

But to my, and somewhat Ibon’s point, what is the purpose of this endless conversation if we don’t eventually use it to somehow improve our situation?

For me, and it sounds others, we have convienced ourselves it’s real and will happen.

Will cc effect your life, or your kids?
If so how will you mitigate for the anticipated impact?
If not is there some other threat that you expect will impact you?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 23:04:35

I'm an absolute believer in the Doom coming when we run out of cheap FF's. Just how fast is the real question, because I remember both $0.189/g and $5.699/g gasoline, but that span of 30X price occurred over 45 years, there never was any great price shock.

About CC I am not so worried. YES, it's a concern. We'll survive, especially in the USA. Any country that accepts unlimited refugees from other countries is however doomed IMHO.
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 07:51:52

asg70 wrote:Ibon, you're a moderator. Use the ban-hammer and the discourse would improve.


It is not this site. It is the venue. Enough said
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:43:13

Best wishes, Ibon. You'll be missed. I've backed away from some online interactions, and probably will do more going forward. Still, I do still find some sites good sources of information, and yes, I do like accurate information, even if it is about decaying situations that I will have little to no ability to mitigate...I guess it's just the academic in me! :)
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 12:41:07

Doom means we all sign out!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 13:26:07

For the time being maybe not literally but an Economic collapse would assuredly take down the Internet
What is there to live for after that :lol: 8O
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 09:58:56

Not to Ibon's you won't, have to walk the last few miles.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 14:54:27

Back to the subject of this thread. We are headed for 4 degrees minimum. 4 degrees means a lot of sea level rise and lots of other problems. We'll see what happens.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 15:13:00

This book which I actually possess, opened my eyes about the extreme danger of climate change. "6 degrees our future on a hotter planet" by Mark Lynas.
Unfortunately, Revi, it says the the feedbacks and momentum of climate change would mean that from 2 degrees above pre-industrial temps, would lead to at least 6 degrees above at which Earth is not a very nice place for organisms like us.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby aspera » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 16:46:51

Getting to 350: What It Will Take to Fix Global Warming
Saturday, January 06, 2018 By Peter Montague, Truthout
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43144-getting-to-350-what-it-will-take-to-fix-global-warming

In 2017, scientists for the first time spelled out what it will take for civilization to survive global warming. Simply ending the use of fossil fuels isn't going to do it; we must also extract billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the atmosphere and store it somewhere forever. The world has been edging toward this momentous conclusion for a long time, but in 2017, scientists finally laid out the details.

The American Physical Society (APS) -- the professional association for physicists -- has estimated that air capture and storage of CO2 will cost at least $610 per ton. If this APS estimate held true, then a 6 percent-per-year reduction would cost $4.2 trillion each year, and 3 percent-per-year reduction would cost $6.7 trillion per year, every year for 80 years. Those are large sums.

Whatever it finally costs to get back to 350, based on historical CO2 emissions the US would be liable for 26 percent of the total cost -- somewhere between $182 billion per year and $1.1 trillion per year, using the cost estimates given above.

Cites Hansen, et al. (2017) https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/577/2017/esd-8-577-2017.pdf#page=1&zoom=auto,-119,800
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 12:31:58

A mere half a degree could spell the difference between the Arctic being ice-free once a decade and once a century; between coral reefs being almost entirely wiped out and up to 30 percent hanging on; and between a third of the world’s population being exposed to extreme heat waves and a tenth.

These alternate futures were laid out last week in a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that explores the possibility of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times by 2100, instead of the 2-degree C upper limit agreed to in the landmark Paris agreement three years ago. The report exposes the closing window humanity has to choose which future it wants.

Preventing a temperature rise of 2 degrees C will be a major challenge, one that the current commitments from various countries will likely be unable to meet. And that is before Pres. Donald Trump pulls the U.S. out of the agreement. But the report says a 1.5-degree C limit is not impossible—although it will require immediate and drastic action, because the current pace of emissions would breach that level between 2030 and 2052. The most likely scenario for achieving that goal may require blowing past it, and then sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to bring temperatures back in line.

With disruptions to the climate system already being felt now amid just under 1 degree C of warming, even the 1.5-degree C goal seems poised to bring major negative impacts. Preventing another half degree of warming on top of that, however, would spare entire ecosystems, cities and vulnerable populations from exponentially worse damage. “We still have choices to make; we’ve seen some of the leading-edge damage already,” says Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology, who is an author on the next major IPCC report.

Here are some of the climate consequences that can be avoided if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C:
Heat: Rising average temperatures have a clear connection to how often heat waves happen, and how bad they get when they do. Studies have already shown the fingerprints of global warming on major heat waves in today’s climate, and things will only get worse as temperatures on the hottest days rise faster than the global average. One study cited in the new report used climate models to see how the share of the world’s population exposed to a heat wave (one with a 5 percent chance of occurring in any given year) would change. That number increased from less than 10 percent of the population now to 50 percent with 1.5 degree C of warming, and more than 70 percent at 2 degrees C.

Ecosystems: Coral reefs have already been battered by warming and acidifying oceans, with widespread bleaching in recent years. Reefs have one of the bleaker future outcomes: a temperature rise of 2 degrees C would eliminate 99 percent of today’s reefs whereas 1.5 degrees C could save a sliver of them, with losses between 70 and 90 percent. Other animals face major losses in places to live. The amount of climatically suitable habitat lost by vertebrates and plants would double from a 1.5- to 2-degree C regime, and triple for invertebrates.

Arctic: The Arctic has already warmed at about double the rate of the planet as a whole, causing permafrost to thaw and sea ice to steadily melt. The jump from 1.5 to 2 degrees C could mean an extra 1.5 million to 2.5 million square kilometers of permafrost disappear, while the Arctic Ocean would go from seeing ice-free conditions in the summer once every 100 years to once every 10.

Food and Water: Warming temperatures also threaten the water and food sources humans depend on. Allowing the global temperature to rise by 2 degrees C could double the losses in annual ocean fish catches, up the number of people exposed to water stress by 50 percent and increase the declines in the yields of key staple crops such as maize, rice and wheat.


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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 13:20:23

baha wrote:You haven't seen my VW :) I won't be stopped easily...of course I haven't seen it either. It's still in design mode :)

Yup. Those VW squarebacks were pretty awesome as far as versatility. High ground clearance, and the engine sitting right over the rear (drive) wheels. I NEVER got stuck in snow, though I did have to rock the car a few times to blast out of my parking space in some 18"ish snows we got during the really nasty back to back winters we saw in the late 70's, during some freakish winters, even before climate change really took hold. (And of course, minor mud, fields, etc., no worries at all.)

Later, with ordinary low clearance front wheel drive cars, I'd get stuck in deep snow like everyone else. :(

And it's worse now with most modern cars. Ordinary sedans tend to sit VERY low and just hang up and drag once the snow gets anywhere near a foot deep, and you're screwed. :x

Good for gas mileage, but only when deep snows are rare. So if you care about that you have to buy a high ground clearance SUV, AWD, etc. which tends to get much worse mileage.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 18:18:14

It strikes me that a 2°C world is certain. 4°C is possible by 2100. With no indication of when it will stop.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 09:24:57

These are the kind of stories that make me angry and pessimistic.

5 ways to sequester CO2.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-en ... t-45967215

So you read through it and if you apply some critical thinking you can punch big holes in a lot of it. Then there is the big about reforestation will eat into farm land and #5 will eat up 40% of our farm land. And in summary it’s still not near enough. And they didn’t account for leak oil.

So if you read this thing the obvious is that even doing all of this we are still going to have dangerous temp rise AND massive depopulation. If you are honest.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 09:31:45

Newfie wrote:
So if you read this thing the obvious is that even doing all of this we are still going to have dangerous temp rise AND massive depopulation. If you are honest.


The sweet irony. The solution is not in doing something but in the very depopulation that happens regardless if we do or we don't.

The body fights infection by getting a fever. Our planet will do the same.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 09:43:43

Yes, quite agree with Ibon. 7 plus billion is simply not sustainable under any circumstances
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 12:39:31

And population reduction is something we, as a species, can not abide.

Oui, what a mess.
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