ennui2 wrote:As long as you don't predict ETP zombies in 4 years, that almost sounds reasonable.
Preface. Oil is finite. Period. Don’t be fooled by news stories that peak oil is dead, or we have reached peak demand. They’re all nonsense. Gail Tverberg at ourfiniteworld.com is especially good at explaining this. Worse yet, what we have left has been and is not being drained as quickly as possible to pay the capital back, and that increases the amount of oil that will be left in the ground forever, which could have been produced with more responsible methods. But the very nature of capitalism is profits now, not 10 years from now. This article makes the case that there are lessons to be learned today from the gigantic 2001 giant Ladyfern natural gas reserves in Northeastern British Columbia. But due to the tragedy of the commons, where too many companies exploited this reservoir too quickly, much less was produced than
what a wonderful story! It is amazing that one story like this seems to have more power than the other, documented and researched and published by real scientists, as to the direction that known oil and gas reserves move.
https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155091
And of COURSE peak oil isn’t dead, as a matter of fact 2019 is the 100th anniversary of the first documented US peak oil call in 1919!
The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone. This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. (Click to enlarge) Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017 This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990. (Click to enlarge) Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 – 2016 The United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six
AdamB wrote:Nice charts showing how easily the peak oilers were fooled by just a hesitation in oil production growth...and undoubtedly one induced by economics. Talk about the keystone cops of oil and gas.
Car Sales to Top 90 Million Globally for First Time: Results fueled by rebounds in Western Europe and emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.
The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 2, 2018 2:17 p.m. ET
Global sales of passenger cars and trucks likely surpassed 90 million for the first time in 2017, the latest indicator that demand for conventional automobiles remains strong even as driverless cars and ride sharing get increasing attention.
harrisonlw wrote:I feel like this thread is long overdue.
harrisonlw wrote:Basically, my question is: is peak oil dead?
harrisonlw wrote:Going back to the main question, I suspect that most agree that conventional oil production peaked years ago, but that's not what I'm referring to when I talk about peak oil. The focus seems to have shifted from peak supply to peak demand. Is PD more of a threat to oil than PS?
onlooker wrote:The premise of the question is bonkers. Oil is a limited resource. So a peaking and subsequent reduction in its production was always a foregone conclusion
onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world. And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz
onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world.
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