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THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Feb 2017, 22:14:21

pstarr wrote:Yet asg70, there must come a time when all the oil, coal, uranium and sunlight will not draw oil out of the ground at any price. At such time oil price becomes a meaningless metric. Can you really say with absolute confidence that this is not that time?


I've read this statement many times now. I've tried and tried and I still can't understand what you're getting at.

I don't mean to invoke a strawman here, but the whole purpose of raising the red flag about peak oil was that oil depletion would cause truly apocalyptic conditions in the world. Remember talk about how every calorie of food is due to x calories of fossil fuels burned? Talk about oil used in fertilizer, packaging, transport, etc...? Peak oil was about the four horsemen. It was about phantom carrying capacity and empty store shelves and cannibalism. Allusions were made to Cormac McCarthy and Mad Max. I'm not making this stuff up. This is what it was all about. It's what drove people to this site and fueled the discussions here.

For you to suggest that now is "the time" wouldn't we be seeing at least some of the above and not happy motoring in suburbia and SUV sales skyrocketing and the stock market breaking new records?

I think some die hards in this forum have been rationalizing this ETP thing for so long that they truly believe this convoluted logic, but if you step away from the keyboard and look around you it is totally decoupled with reality.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Feb 2017, 01:02:50

pstarr wrote:
AdamB wrote:bell shape curves, doomer, carrington events, cosmic collisions, mega-volcanoes, etc.

This somehow nullifies Michael Lynch's horrendous prediction for the 'Coming Oil Flood'? Have dates?


Lynch's prediction is obviously already here, as you would have forcibly pointed out every time you run down to the corner store to buy fuel for your gasoline guzzling machine, emitting CO2 all along the way. On the other hand, this evening I took the wife's car out to collect her a birthday card and gift, stopped off and spoke with some family friends, drove to the car wash and got it cleaned off for her, stopped off to collect some french fries for the boy on the way home, and didn't harm a single molecule of gasoline along the way. And her work provides free fuel for all of this, so lets here for forward thinking employers and people who are willing to help save the world and make up for folks like you happily emitting CO2 every time you leave the house.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Feb 2017, 01:08:18

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:In the doomer world, people are HOPING for black swan events, and some had configured peak oil just that way. Now vigorously attempting the same with climate change.


The scientists who predict global warming aren't "vigorously attempting" to do anything.


I didn't say anything about the scientists, but just regular zealots looking for another rationalization to keep buying the guns and ammo, explain to the wife why they need the hunting cabin, how important a solar oven or rocket stove are. No one said anything about the scientists being this crazy, but I suppose it is possible some are. I knew one once who was as rational as anyone, but if you told him that Big Foot wasn't real he would come as unglued as pstarr does when faced by the reality of low prices and abundance that he thinks peak oil a decade ago has wrought.


Plantagenet wrote: In the real world the physical properties of atmospheric gases are well known and molecules of CO2, CH4, H2O (vapor), and some other gases trap heat in the atmosphere and warm the planet.

Thats just how it is.


Cool. Good thing I didn't contradict physics in any way with my statement about zealots looking for any excuse to keep up their hopes for some walking dead scenario in the near future.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Michael Lynch: How To Read Conflicting Energy Headlines

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 11 Dec 2017, 16:33:56



The Internet is to public discourse what pamphleteering was in the 18th century: an outlet for opinions that require minimal input. Using a search engine allows a pundit to find support for almost any opinion, which is very useful if you’re trying to win an argument as opposed to get to the truth. In this post, I will simply show how easy it is to find diametrically opposed ‘articles’ from the internet and many from legitimate news sources (as opposed to blogs). Let’s start with electric cars. Grist.org notes “Electric cars are so popular we’re running out of plugs” while oilprice.com says “Electric car threat to oil is wildly overstated.” A careful reader might argue that the two are not mutually exclusive: we could be running out of chargers at the same time that the potential oil displacement is being exaggerated.


Michael Lynch: How To Read Conflicting Energy Headlines
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Michael Lynch: How To Read Conflicting Energy Headlines

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 11 Dec 2017, 16:35:29

AdamB wrote:


The Internet is to public discourse what pamphleteering was in the 18th century: an outlet for opinions that require minimal input. Using a search engine allows a pundit to find support for almost any opinion, which is very useful if you’re trying to win an argument as opposed to get to the truth. In this post, I will simply show how easy it is to find diametrically opposed ‘articles’ from the internet and many from legitimate news sources (as opposed to blogs). Let’s start with electric cars. Grist.org notes “Electric cars are so popular we’re running out of plugs” while oilprice.com says “Electric car threat to oil is wildly overstated.” A careful reader might argue that the two are not mutually exclusive: we could be running out of chargers at the same time that the potential oil displacement is being exaggerated.


Michael Lynch: How To Read Conflicting Energy Headlines


Indeed Michael. Indeed. And as one of the few experts who has stopped in here before....I must ask....where did you learn this most obvious truth? The same place I did perhaps? :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Michael Lynch: How To Read Conflicting Energy Headlines

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Dec 2017, 17:19:40

That's interesting, since so many doomers on this site resort to ridiculous doomer blogs whose points can be shown to be complete nonsense with a ten second search. Posting new topics or "insights" as though they hold some great truth.

At least most MSM articles have actual data and actual experts tied to actual citations. That certainly doesn't mean they're perfect -- but generally that's far better than the empty conspiracy theories of the doomer meme, that all MSM data is "made up", since it's not what they want to hear.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby spike » Thu 14 Dec 2017, 12:16:42

Experience makes you skeptical if not cynical. See this for instance. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellyn ... e4eaa53376
If you go back to my 2009 NYT op-ed on peak oil, you will see numerous posts/articles which consist of "he's wrong, see here's someone who says that." All part of Tom Nichols' The Death of Expertise, on the explosion of instant experts, which didn't start with but has been worsened by the Internet.
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby spike » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 06:46:25

Pstarr, you might read my latest: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellyn ... 60f7816126
Except you don't want to hear that my record is not as bad as you claim. Spike/Mike
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 09:02:22

I don't see it as convoluted at all. Though I don't understand its methods (the calculus and physics is over my head) I do get the assumptions, and conclusion. It's really a net-energy thing, simple: there comes a time when so much oil is burnt up producing oil, that not enough is left over for the consumer society. Therefore the consumer society can't pay to get the rest of the oil. Tricky huh?-------
Should be understood by any thinking adult. Unless of course you have an agenda NOT to understand. Oil Industry and General Economy locked in a reinforcing downward spiral. Energy transcends
supply/demand price signals because it it is what powers economic activity. Not rocket science just common sense and logic
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 11:12:45

^^^ But provides little to no guidance in the short-term. Michael Lynch's most recent guidance for next year (which apparently you failed to read or barely skimmed through) was a very thorough and thoughtful piece which does not get suckered into the typical doomer sensationalism or tunnel-vision of this site. That's why aside from a dedicated thread like this you will not see anyone link to him and instead link to the likes of Zerohedge, etc...

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 11:20:05

spike wrote:Pstarr, you might read my latest: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellyn ... 60f7816126
Except you don't want to hear that my record is not as bad as you claim. Spike/Mike


It is an interesting take on things, but I automatically flag a couple of issues Mr. Lynch. First I agree that the S&P and DJIA are ready for a rather large correction. However you define the growth of these entities as 'economic expansion' and see their deflation/correction as an economic crunch that will effect the entire system from farm to rave. I see it differently, in that the massive growth in the equities market was not reflected in the rest of the economy. In fact out here in middle America the effect was quite to the contrary, wages have been stagnant for most of a decade and new housing starts have been anemic and housing prices today have still not regained the position they held in 2008. I know this is not how things are for the coasters, but the coasts are just the crust around the country, not the bulk of it.

You also posit that a oil price collapse may happen in the next two years which ignores that the prices today have not yet returned to the 2010-2014 averages. While it is true the OPEC reduction agreements have had an impact the growth in oil demand from Asia has also had a major impact upon world oil consumption. While many people make claims that this growth from Asia is only possible because of low prices this is contraindicated by the fact that demand growth in Asia was very strong for the last decade even when prices averaged over $80/bbl WTI from 2010-2014.

With such robust growth in world demand from Asia we also saw a drop in demand from the EU and North America congruent with the 2008 recession. However now the great middle of the country is finally pulling out of those recessionary conditions. Wages are up, construction is up, housing prices are up, all by a perceptible degree since the first of 2017. This has created optimism and spending in middle America from both businesses and the consumers who are employed by those businesses. Perhaps this optimism is misplaced, but it is very real and has a real impact on the economy in America between the coaster crust on the outside. This is increasing demand for fuel in the bulk of America because economic activity requires energy and from Ohio to Idaho Pickup trucks outnumber Prius' by a significant margin.

The other factor you seem to have glossed over IMO is the decoupling of the Stock/Equity markets and the Commodities markets. Starting around 2005 or 2006 it was noted and brought to my attention on this website that crude and natural gas prices were no longer moving in step with the stock markets. In fact to a certain extent the opposite seemed to be happening, when people feared investing in stocks they moved those investments not just to Bonds as was the traditional course of action, but also saw the opportunity to move funds into commodities. In part this was due to the growth in Asia which strongly supported the price of commodities like Copper and Steel to feed their rapidly urbanizing culture building hundreds of infrastructure projects and new urban sky scrapers to house the newly urban population. China today is no longer growing at the break neck pace of 2005-2015, but that is a far cry from not growing at all. With a population of 1.3 Billion souls the demand growth from 7% is huge, but even a growth of 1% is a considerable demand upon world resources.

China is also not alone, India is following the same track and is about a decade behind which means they are entering the much higher growth rate period of their economic development. Waiting in the wings is Indonesia which has also seen substantial growth in the last decade and is poised to take off in much the same measure unless the government policy stifles growth again which it has from time to time in the past.

All of these growing nations of Asia are IMO a solid support under Commodities and if the equities markets make the expected correction or take an even larger hit I expect the investor class to flee back into Bonds and Commodities. For Middle America this is actually a good thing because it makes mining and producing raw materials of all sorts a much better paying proposition. There are still many millions of tons of Bauxite in Arkansas and Iron Ore in Michigan and coal in the powder River Basin all of which the local population would gladly extract and export for money, not to mention the light tight oil from North Dakota that now has access to the LOOP in Louisiana for export. Sure when the first fracking boom took place in 2009-2015 there were a lot of issues with transporting the new volumes of oil from areas not in the pipeline network. In 2017 however those transport issues have been largely dealt with and their is now a lot of pipeline capacity backed up by rail tanker capacity able to transport the Bakken oil to GOM ports for refining or export. The higher commodities prices rise the more incentive to export that exists and supply is not the only factor when the investor class are pouring their wealth into the market like they were in the last boom.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby spike » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 06:16:57

Thanks for the comments, Tanada. I think we disagree somewhat on the connection between the stock market and the economy. Right now, unemployment is very low and economy is nearly full out, although wages don't reflect that. But if the stock market collapses, that could cause a recession, which would weaken demand.
Also, I would argue that the price is not "low" now but that the 2010-2014 was unusually high. I don't see prices "recovering" to $100 without some unusual events, but I am certainly an outlier in that belief. Best, Mike
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Re: THE Michael C. Lynch Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Mar 2023, 22:26:33

Mr Lynch has released a 58 minute video 'proving' that Peak Oil is just a myth at least for the foreseeable future.

VIDEO
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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