Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
According to Pemex’s website, crude oil production averaged 2.177 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 2.217 million in March. In contrast, exports increased 1.7 percent to 1.081 million bpd in April, from 1.063 million the prior month.
Mexico's refineries are unable to meet all the domestic demand for gasoline or diesel and the country is a major importer of motor fuels, especially gasoline.
Mexico imported around 360,000 bpd of gasoline in 2015, net of exports; the country relied on imports for nearly half of its total requirements.
pstarr wrote:Tanada, about that graph: what a sorry story. Where is the data, the graph, the analysis? It is the first I have seen it.
It is based upon a projection, and doesn't seem to be consistent with Energy Export Databrowser. Which shows continuing exports. Or am I missing something?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
ROCKMAN wrote:T - I doubt there will be much foreign capex spent onshore Mexico even if prices recover significantly. What US companies have been hoping for is access to their GOM waters. There have been significant discovers just across the international border on the US side for some time. From 2015:
The Mexican Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) announced its first ever licensing round (Ronda Uno) in August 2014, with a view to bolstering exploration investment, especially in the offshore region, but also onshore where unconventional resource exploration has been initiated in the Burgos Basin.
The round is phased, with shallow water blocks in the South East Basin being offered first, and data packages are now available. The CNH is looking for participation with a minimum bid that must comprise at least two commitment wells on the first phase of released blocks. Despite these requirements the round is expected to be highly competitive because of the prospective acreage on offer.
The Ronda Uno blocks are scattered throughout most of the offshore basins in Mexico. A vast amount of 3D seismic data now covers most of the prospective areas offshore Mexico, so future exploration will be accelerated by access to these data sets. There are very few wells in the deep offshore, including fewer than 10 wells in water depths greater than 1,500m, so this is almost virgin exploration territory in basins with vast petroleum potential.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
westexas wrote:In a February, 2013 article, titled “The Export Capacity Index (ECI):A New Metric For Predicting Future Supplies of Global Net Oil Exports,” I summarized recent global production and net export data, and I introduced what I call the Export Capacity Index (ECI), which is the sum of total petroleum liquids + other liquids production (per EIA definition) divided by liquids consumption for an oil exporting country. Net Oil Exports are defined as Total petroleum liquids + other liquids production less liquids consumption (EIA).
In the ECI article, I also reviewed what I called the Export Land Model (ELM), which is a simple mathematical model which examines what happens to net oil exports, given increasing internal consumption versus an ongoing decline in production in a net oil exporting country.
Based on the ELM, we can conclude that given an ongoing production decline in a net oil exporting country, unless they cut their internal consumption at the same rate as the rate of decline in production, or at a faster rate, the resulting net export decline rate will exceed the production decline rate, and the net export decline rate will accelerate with time.
Mexico’s production peaked in 2004 at 3.83 mbpd (million barrels per day, as defined above). Their 2004 liquids consumption was 2.07 mbpd, resulting in 2004 net exports of 1.76 mbpd.
Their initial 2004 to 2005 rate of change in production was -1.7%, and their initial rate of change in consumption was +2.2%/year, resulting in a 2004 to 2005 net export rate of change of -6.7%/year. In simple percentage terms, a 1.7% decline in production, plus rising consumption, resulted in a 6.4% decline in net oil exports, from 2004 to 2005.
Their 2004 to 2012 rate of change in production was -3.4%/year, and their rate of change in consumption was +0.7%/year, resulting in a 2004 to 2012 rate of change in net oil exports of -11.1%/year. In simple percentage terms, a 24% decline in production, plus rising consumption, resulted in a 59% decline in net oil exports, from 2004 to 2012, with net oil exports falling from 1.76 mbpd in 2004 to 0.72 mbpd in 2012.
The rate of change in their ECI ratio, the ratio of liquids production to liquids consumption, fell from 1.8 in 2004 to 1.3 in 2012 (at an ECI ratio of 1.0, net oil exports would be zero). At the 2004 to 2012 rate of decline in Mexico’s ECI ratio, they would approach zero net oil exports in about six years, around the year 2019.
Based on the 2004 to 2012 rate of decline in Mexico’s ECI ratio, their estimated post-2004 Cumulative Net Exports of oil (CNE) are about 4.2 Gb (billion barrels). They shipped a total of 3.2 Gb in net exports from 2005 to 2012 inclusive, which suggests that Mexico’s post-2004 CNE are already about three-fourths depleted, which would be a post-2004 CNE depletion rate of about 18%/year through 2012, i.e., the rate at which Mexico is depleting their post-2004 cumulative supply of net oil exports. This is completely consistent with what we have seen in other regions, e.g., Indonesia, as they approached zero net oil exports. Note that Mexico was the third largest supplier of net crude oil imports into the US in 2012 (EIA).
Mexico’s net export decline was a contributor to the regional post-2004 decline we have seen in net oil exports. The seven major Western Hemisphere net oil exporters in 2004 were Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Trinidad & Tobago, Colombia, Argentina and Ecuador, i.e., countries with in the Western Hemisphere with net oil exports of 100,000 bpd or more in 2004. Their combined net oil exports fell from 5.9 mbpd in 2004 to 5.0 mbpd in 2012 (EIA). In other words, rising net oil exports from Canada have only served to slow the overall post-2004 regional decline in net oil exports.
Link to ECI article (Using BP + EIA data):
http://peak-oil.org/2013/02/commentary-the-export-capacity-index/
Jeffrey J. Brown
ROCKMAN wrote:Sub - As of last Sept Mexico was importing 960,000 bbls of refinery products per day from the US. That same month the US imported 516,000 bbls of oil per day from Mexico. During that same month the US exported 4 bcf per day to Mexico. Do you think a few here are surprised to learn that Mexico is a NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER from the US? Are you? Actually back in 2015 Blomberg noted that for the first time in 20 years the US became a NET FF EXPORTER to Mexico.
Can't find info on total Mexican oil exports. I suspect their govt doesn't release such details. I have the suspicion that on a revenue basis Mexico has become a NET ENERGY IMPORTER. IOW they ceased being a net supplier of energy to the US possibly as long as 2 years ago.
Probably confuses folks who read an analysis like the following which fails to mention the fossil fuel exports to Mexico from the US. Makes one think the US is more dependent on ff imports from Mexico instead of vice versa, eh?
"Mexico is a major producer of petroleum and other liquids and is among the largest sources of U.S. oil imports. Mexico is one of the largest producers of petroleum and other liquids in the world. Mexico is also the fourth-largest producer in the Americas after the United States, Canada, and Brazil, and an important partner in U.S. energy trade. In 2015, Mexico accounted for 688,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 9%, of U.S. crude oil imports."
And as off Sept total Mexican oil production was 2.17 million/day.
As usual all stats are from the EIA.
ROCKMAN wrote:And now step back and look at the bigger picture with respect to total trade with Mexico. From your friendly govt:
"U.S.goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $583.6 billion in 2015. Exports were $267.2 billion; imports were $316.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was -$49.2 billion in 2015.
Mexico is currently our 3rd largest goods trading partner with $531 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2015. Goods exports totaled $236 billion; goods imports totaled $295 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $58 billion in 2015.
Trade in services with Mexico (exports and imports) totaled an estimated $52.4 billion in 2015. Services exports were $30.8 billion; services imports were $21.6 billion. The U.S. services trade surplus with Mexico was $9.2 billion in 2015.
According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico supported an estimated 1.1 million jobs in 2014 (latest data available) (953 thousand supported by goods exports and 193 thousand supported by services exports)."
Mexico’s national oil company Pemex has made its biggest onshore oil discovery in 15 years with a find in the eastern state of Veracruz, President Enrique Pena Nieto said on Friday. Tanker trucks of state-owned company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) are seen in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico October 4, 2017. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez Pena Nieto said Pemex made the discovery by drilling its onshore Ixachi well, near the municipality of Cosamaloapan, and that the overall field is believed to hold some 350 million barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves. Pena Nieto, who pushed through Congress a sweeping energy reform in 2013 that ended Pemex’ decades-long monopoly, made the announcement at the company’s Tula refinery. He was flanked by his energy minister, Pemex’ chief executive and a range of other government and union officials. While crude export revenue once contributed as much as 40 percent
Gasoline shortages continue in at least 13 states, resulting in long line-ups at gas stations, panic buying and unrest among consumers as Pemex has been unable to resolve supply problems.
The affected states are Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Oaxaca, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Morelos, Jalisco, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Durango and San Luis Potosí.
It was in the latter that disgruntled citizens took to protesting, blocking the main highways into the capital city as well as its main streets.
Government officials posted on Twitter that the gasoline shortages were caused by consumers and panic buying, a situation that was only worsened by the blockades, they added.
While that may have been true in San Luis Potosí, it wasn’t the case elsewhere in the country, where Pemex officials have tried to justify the situation in several ways.
In Jalisco, the December vacation break was cited as the main reason for a 50% surge in demand for gasoline and diesel.
Production was also affected by a revision and overhaul of obsolete equipment in some refineries, the oil company said, along with pipeline problems.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:This is a classic example of the Export Land Model in action, you can cut domestic consumption in favor of exports to a certain extent, but sooner or later you hit the wall and have to lower exports to prevent domestic unrest and potentially revolution.
On April 5, 2006, Jeffrey Brown (aka "Westexas") made the following prediction:
"As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis."
Hat Tip to JD
Tanada wrote:Mexico has been a poorly managed country for decades and as a result it is much more like Venezuela than the USA. Oil profits during the high value years were squandered rather than being invested in future production or replacing aged equipment and as a result they now find themselves in a precarious situation.
Tanada wrote:Even worse the Permian basin and Eagle Ford basins where the USA is producing large volumes of fracked oil and gas extend across the international border into Mexico making it likely that Mexico could greatly increase production for a decade or longer with a shale boom of their own, but distrust of the government and mismanagement mean little progress has been made in exploiting these resources for the benefit of Mexicans living in Mexico.
AdamB wrote:Mexico ....has had 2, perhaps 3, prior peak oils (if memory serves). So might this new one be #3 or #4? Could be.....
Mexican conventional oil production is currently down by about 1/3 from its peak.
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