shortonoil wrote:So let's hope and pray that the Etp Model is flawed.
We can hope so!
Be genuine. Your ego doesn't want to take the hit of being proven wrong.
shortonoil wrote:So let's hope and pray that the Etp Model is flawed.
We can hope so!
The oil industry will start to cannibalize on its existing reserves until they are exhausted.
In 2016, global natural gas production increased by only 0.3%, or 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) to 3552 bcm , the weakest growth in gas output for [20 years], other than in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis
radon1 wrote:So, with the ETP trash duly thrown out to the trash bin given the oil price dynamics, the trickster is now up with a new "report" to show us the "truly real truth"?
When PStarr decides he likes somebody he becomes quite the defensive groupie.
shortonoil wrote:When PStarr decides he likes somebody he becomes quite the defensive groupie.
That is an interesting comment coming from someone that no one likes!
You mean YOU don't like ASG, because he uses facts and trends which the doomers don't want to admit exist.
shortonoil wrote:You mean YOU don't like ASG, because he uses facts and trends which the doomers don't want to admit exist.
He uses facts? Are you referring to the stuff that he copies out of the Onion, or the stuff he gets out of his old Mad Magazines? Can you be a little more specific?
The industry is now replacing less than 8% of the reserves that it is extracting. Water breakthrough occurs at an average of 6.9 years for offshore, or the point where the field is 79% depleted. Existing producing fields are at least on average that old. Replacement has been low for more than a decade. Production growth from these fields can be expected to continue for no more than a year or so.
onlooker wrote:From what I have heard, the running average for the WTI price is STILL running below the Etp MAP.
According to the Ernst & Young US oil and gas reserves study for 2017 Oil replacement rates were 128% excluding revisions (P1 dropped to lower category as a consequence of price) for 2016.
radon1 wrote:onlooker wrote:From what I have heard, the running average for the WTI price is STILL running below the Etp MAP.
Which running average? The one over the last couple hundred years? It is probably pretty close to zero all the time, so yeah, it is running below almost everything.
you do realize the ETP is modeling world oil output of which the US only produces about 10% of the daily total.
According to the Ernst & Young US oil and gas reserves study for 2017 Oil replacement rates were 128% excluding revisions (P1 dropped to lower category as a consequence of price) for 2016.
you do realize the ETP is modeling world oil output of which the US only produces about 10% of the daily total.
you do realize that the 128% they are talking about was all shale oil. A substance with decline rates 100 times faster than the conventional fields the US was built with. It is an industry that has never turned a positive free cash flow. It is an industry were every well drilled is a stripper in five years, and an industry that will never repay the capital that it took to build it. 128% of nothing is still nothing
you do realize the ETP is modeling world oil output of which the US only produces about 10% of the daily total.
Year end 2015 US proved oil reserves declined year over year. The level is about the same as in 1975. The 2016 EIA data should be published shortly.
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