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Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:15:43

This technical article published in 2016 indicates parts of Ghawar currently have water cuts of up to 98% (!!!!).

ATCE: Fast Start for First Saudi CO2 EOR Project

The Saudis can reduce the water cut down to 90% by doing expensive CO2 injection work, but it only makes economic sense at oil prices over $50/bbl. Thats much much worse for the Saudis then very cheap crude they've been pumping from Ghawar up until now.

This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak. If the Bakken has peaked, and Eagle Ford peaked, and the Permian Basin peaks ca. 2020-21, and Ghawar in KSA peaks, then we're right back looking at a "Peak Oil" scenario ca. 2020-21.

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The pilot project testing CO2 injection at Ghawar is scheduled to be completed in 2018. The 98% water cut observed in some areas and the concomitant need to start this CO2 injection work indicates Ghawar is at or near its peak.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:57:09

Plantagenet wrote:This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.


Opposed to when it was actually dying in 2001?

Color me not surprised when people keep pulling this stunt, not the kick the can part, but the claims of HERE IT COMES!!! It is almost like roller coaster folks, just excited by the repetition of the next drop. As least they know that as many other peaks are coming as they might want, peakers can't even figure that one out.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:16:17

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:This supports the idea that Ghawar is very near its peak.


Opposed to when it was actually dying in 2001?


Ghawar wasn't "actually dying" in 2001---don't you even know that? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Now it is 16 years later.......and in the 16 years ca. 30 BILLION barrels of oil have been pumped out of Ghawar. Thats a LOT of oil, even for a field as huge as Ghawar. The water cuts in parts of Ghawar are now up to 98%. And KSA, which has already been pumping water into Ghawar to keep the oil flowing, has now started a CO2 injection program to try to keep the production rate up.

I doubt the Saudis would start an expensive CO2 injection program unless they had to....and that means there are issues with keeping up oil production levels at Ghawar.

Check it out:

how-much-oil-can-saudi-arabia-pump
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:02:04

And KSA, which has already been pumping water into Ghawar to keep the oil flowing, has now started a CO2 injection program to try to keep the production rate up.


what they are doing is a CO2 pilot project not a full EOR. The reason they are doing this is to look at the ability to increase recovery rate in some of the layers where wettability is either mixed or has switched to oil wet. Whether or not they go into a full CO2 injection program at a later date will depend on the outcome of this study.

Note that according to EIA, WoodMac and IHS Energy the production at Ghawar is still around 5 MMbl/d, the same as it has been for a number of years.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 18:40:12

rockdoc123 wrote: The reason they are doing this is to look at the ability to increase recovery rate in some of the layers where wettability is either mixed or has switched to oil wet.


Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

-------------------------------

What everyone seems to be missing (except me, of course) is that EOR is often done "after both primary and secondary recovery have been exhausted."

In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.

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Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:43:20

Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


It is 40% water cut now as it has been for the number of years according to Aramco.

And water wet versus oil wet has special meaning to those of us who have experience dealing with reservoirs. No need to show your ignorance.

In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.


which says absolutely nothing about where they are now. They have just passed the 50% of OOIP and Aramco has been adamant they will see at least 70% with existing technologies. Aramco has always been on the fore front of oil and gas field innovation. They basically invented the MRC wells, one of the first to fully utilize SMART completions and downhole shutoffs along with expandable liners and the first to build a fully functioning Intelligent Field where drilling, production etc are all linked digitally to their full field models. They test things to improve recovery efficiency all the time, CO2 injection is just one that you have heard about, there are a host of others that may or may not be deployed at some point. There is no rule that EOR projects are undertaken at the end of a fields normal depletion, in many cases it is instituted quite early in the history to help improve overall recovery.

Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent


As I have pointed out previously at the current production rate and based on what reserves are remaining according to a host of estimates (which apparently have now been varified by Gaffnery Cline and DeGolyer and MacNaughton) they would have 30 - 40 years of production left to get to the 70% ultimate recovery.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 20:25:49

Yes, the oil is pretty wet when you're getting up to a 98% water cut. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


It is 40% water cut now as it has been for the number of years according to Aramco.


Actually, no.

That may have been true years ago, but some parts of the field evidently have much higher water cuts now. The 2015 article from the Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT) I cite in my post above says the EOR pilot program is being done in an area with a 98% water cut.

Try to keep up with the latest technical papers---That way there will be "no need to show your ignorance." :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


In other words, the mere fact that the Saudis are trying a CO2 EOR pilot project suggests the Saudis are looking for some way to enhance production of the remaining oil at Ghawar.


which says absolutely nothing about where they are now.


Actually it does. It says they are at a point where they feel they need to test an EOR program that might help them maintain future oil recovery.

Saudis now testing out CO2 EOR at Ghawar----the last phase of oil recovery is imminent

they would have 30 - 40 years of production left to get to the 70% ultimate recovery.


Possibly. But the fact they are testing CO2 EOR techniques at all says the people at Aramco have identified issues with current production that might be helped by implementing CO2 EOR. And one can reasonably predict it will be much much more expensive for them to produce oil from Ghawar if they implement EOR techniques widely then it currently is.

One estimate is that will ca. $50 bbl to produce oil from Ghawar using EOR. Thats a dramatic increase from today.

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Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 04 Dec 2017, 20:44:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 20:42:31

pstarr wrote:As much as I hate to say this . . . Plant, you are doing a bang up job. Keep it up

Cheers :)


Thank you, Peter. I hope you are having a splendid fall down there in beautiful Humboldt country.

Cheers! :)
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 01:21:41

The reason why the Bakken and Eagle Ford have already peaked is that the TOS companies drill the best areas first. When those are used up the remaining shales aren't nearly as good, and oil production falls.

Consider the Eagle Ford: The industry has drilled up to 90% of the best grade rock, but only about 30% of the largest tranche of mid-quality rock. Median peak rates for the best rock average 922 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) across 2,000 wells versus 367 boe/d in mid-grade rock across more than 5,500 wells.

2-5-billion-barrels-eagle-ford-

Wells drilled in the "best" rock at Eagle Ford are almost 3 times as productive as wells drilled into "mid-grade" shale, and the "best" grade shale is almost all used up. That means most new wells will be drilled into mid-grade rock and not be nearly as good.

Thats why the Eagle Ford TOS play has peaked.

Same story at Bakken. The best rock is used up. Its peaked.

The Permian is the only US TOS field that hasn't peaked. And insiders think it will peak in 2020-21.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 01:41:20

That may have been true years ago, but some parts of the field evidently have much higher water cuts now. The 2015 article from the Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT) I cite in my post above says the EOR pilot program is being done in an area with a 98% water cut


I was referring to the overall water cut from producing wells in Ghawar….the number comes from Aramco circa 2016

But the area they are testing has very little to do with the producing parts of Ghawar. The paper which was written on the demonstration project at Utimaniyah

Carpenter, C. 2017. First CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Demonstration Project in Saudi Arabia. SPE, SPE-0717-0083-JPT

Points out that they specifically selected 3 small areas on the flank adjacent an area which has peripheral water injectors operating for more than 50 years having swept this particular area of the field. They specifically wanted to test it in a completely water swept area of the reservoir. It was not implemented into the area which is currently producing just behind the flood front where water cuts have been maintained at the levels I mentioned. You are misinterpreting what is being done.

Actually it does. It says they are at a point where they feel they need to test an EOR program that might help them maintain future oil recovery and also deal with their greenhouse gas requirements through sequestration


As I’ve said previously EOR can be applied at any stage of production. It is often applied quite early on so just the fact they are looking at it says nothing about how much oil is left in the field. Simply that they would like to see if they can improve ultimate recovery.

One estimate is that will ca. $50 bbl to produce oil from Ghawar using EOR. Thats a dramatic increase from today.


Please provide the reference for that number. The JPT paper does not state that. CO2 is readily available, transport costs are low so the only excess cost is injection and separation.

And the main point here is that the 70% number quoted by Aramco does not include CO2 WAG application. That means the 30 – 40 years of production left that I mentioned previously is independent of this study and would be conducted at OPEX similar to what they experience today (~$5/bbl).
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:48:10

You are misinterpreting what is being done.


No, you are misinterpreting what is being done.

The fact that Aramco is undertaking a pilot project to test the efficacy of CO2 EOR at Ghawar means Aramco wants to know if CO2 EOR will help them maintain production at Ghawar.

Why else would they initiate such an expensive multi-year pilot project? For the fun of it?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 16:09:47

The fact that Aramco is undertaking a pilot project to test the efficacy of CO2 EOR at Ghawar means Aramco wants to know if CO2 EOR will help them maintain production at Ghawar.

Why else would they initiate such an expensive multi-year pilot project? For the fun of it?


perhaps you should read the research you so smuggly alluded to (but apparently didn't read).

Their reason for doing the project was two fold (as stated in a couple of papers presented at SPE).

1. to increase carbon sequestration and hence aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts and
2. improve ultimate recovery from areas that had been swept by water flood for numerous decades where residual oil saturation had dropped below what was moveable under water flood and CO2 miscible flooding had the potential to increase recovery.

They are not trying to maintain production through this project, they never state that anywhere....the project entails 9 producers which is hardly an attempt to increase field production. It is called a Demonstration project for a reason.

But then you don't have to believe me, the following from a SPE paper

Kokal, S et al, 2016. Design and implementation of the first CO2-EOR Demonstration Project in Saudi Arabia. SPE-181729-MS

Saudi Aramco has designed and implemented the first CO2-EOR demonstration project in one of the fields. It is worth mentioning that while Saudi Aramco does not require EOR oil for decades to come, this project is being pursued primarily to demonstrate the feasibility of sequestering CO2 through EOR in the Kingdom and using it as grounds to test new monitoring and surveillance (M&S) techniques.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby aspera » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 13:13:44

Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize:
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors (Wall Street Journal, Dec 6, 2017)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420

Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.

Good luck with that.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 14:41:14

If you are invested in oil &I gas and expect to see similar quarterly earnings and profits as you expect to see in retail or other businesses you need to rethink what your investment goals are. Oil &I gas companies do not plan on quarterly schedules and their yearly planning cycle is really to address cash flow balances. They look at 5 year plans as where they need to deliver. If you aren't in it for the long haul then get out. You will have your ass handed to you if you don't understand the business. And if you can't read a balance sheet you don't belong in the market at all let alone writing articles
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 14:58:59

aspera wrote:Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize:
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors (Wall Street Journal, Dec 6, 2017)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420

Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.

Good luck with that.


You are 100% right that there has been a lot of financial pain the fracking industry, with both service companies and exploration companies going bust after oil prices dropped a few years ago. But its not just the frackers----companies going after conventional oil have also been going bankrupt. One group particularly hard hit is the offshore oil sector---- deep sea drilling is a risky business and there isn't much call for expensive oil drilling offshore in an oil glut.

IMHO this is just part of the normal boom-bust cycle of the oil biz. We had an oil boom a decade ago when oil prices went to $100+/bbl and that gave birth to the fracking biz. Now we're in an oil biz bust because of the global oil glut driving crude prices down to about half of what they were in the oil boom.

At some point there will be another oil boom ---- but the question then will be where to drill? There are almost no large conventional oil targets left, and TOS areas in the US have either peaked or will peak soon.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 15:20:35

saudi..... to increase carbon sequestration and hence aid in their commitments regarding reducing greenhouse gas impacts..


Again you are posting utter nonsense---once again you've posted something that is the exact opposite of the facts.

Saudi Arabia's "commitments" under the Paris Accords do not involve them "reducing greenhouse gas impacts" as you fantasize. In reality Saudi Arabia pledged to greatly INCREASE their CO2 emissions under the Paris Accords.

The exact amount of CO2 increase pledged by Saudi is difficult to determine, since their promise to increase their CO2 emissions involves a pledge to increase their CO2 emissions above a "dynamic" baseline, but independent analysis suggests that Saudi committed under the Paris Accords to INCREASE Saudi CO2 emissions by as much as 110% by 2030.

climateactiontracker.org/countries/saudiarabia

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Here's a helpful suggestion: There must something you actually know a little bit about----try posting about something you know about instead of just making things up and posting nonsense about things you don't know about.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 18:18:31

Again you are posting utter nonsense---once again you've posted something that is the exact opposite of the facts.


well perhaps you should have read some of the publications on the project before you go blabbering about Paris Accords (which I never mentioned). Saudi Arabia has their own internal goals for greenhouse gas emissions and controls. Back in 2012 they struck a Carbon Management Steering Committee that was tasked with reducing Saudis carbon footprint. They have a roadmap that includes various Demonstration Projects which Uthmaniyah is the first of. The Roadmap includes technology to enhance CO2 capture from fixed sources, CO2 reduction from mobile sources, industrial application, CO2 storage and CO2 EOR.

This from the Saudi Aramco site:

Being the largest of its kind in the Middle East, Saudi Aramco’s first carbon capture and enhanced oil recovery pilot project demonstrates commitment to environmental stewardship.

"This breakthrough initiative demonstrates that we, as an industry leader, are part of the solution to proactively address global environmental challenges," said Amin H. Nasser, acting president and CEO. "Saudi Aramco is carrying out extensive research to enable us to lower our carbon footprint while continuing to supply the energy the world needs."

Led by the Saudi Aramco’s EXPEC-Advanced Research Center, the company’s Carbon Management Technology Road Map includes many focus areas with a main goal of developing the required technologies to reduce CO2 emissions.
Reducing gas flaring, introducing zero-discharge technologies at well sites, and implementing a comprehensive water conservation policy at all plants and communities are among the company’s environmental protection efforts.
Environmental stewardship has long been a hallmark of Saudi Aramco’s business, with the company’s environmental protection policy formally established in 1963 and its Master Gas System, which significantly reduced CO2 emissions, in the 1970s.

The pilot project is the latest in the company’s list of efforts, injecting 800,000 tons of CO2 every year into flooded oil reservoirs. A monitoring system is in place to measure how much of that CO2 remains sequestered underground.


This from the Kokal et al paper SPE 181729 MS I already mentioned

As part of Saudi Aramco's environmental stewardship program (Al-Meshari et al. 2014), the company has recently embarked on its first carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) through a CO2-EOR demonstration project in one of its carbonate reservoirs. It is part of a multi-pronged effort involving the company's strategic carbon management program aimed at finding technological solution to reduce CO2 emissions. It must be emphasized that Saudi Aramco does not require EOR oil at a production level for decades to come, this project is being pursued primarily to demonstrate the feasibility of sequestering CO2 via EOR in the Kingdom.


Here's a helpful suggestion: There must something you actually know a little bit about----try posting about something you know about instead of just making things up and posting nonsense about things you don't know about.


You truly are a bonehead. Obviously what I posted was based on what the Saudis have published in SPE and have given presentations on at several conferences. As usual I actually read it...you try to imply you have read it but as usual you hadn't. For some reason you got "Paris Accords" into your head. Saudi greenhouse gas emission goals have nothing to do with that ridiculous club...they have their own goals and the CO2 injection scheme is a part of it. You can disagree and argue about their goals but that is the main reason they have embarked on the CO2 injection scheme at Uthamaniyah...it solves two of parts of their Roadmap equation.

If anyone is ill-informed here it is you I'm afraid.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 12:33:28

rockdoc123 wrote:which says absolutely nothing about where they are now. They have just passed the 50% of OOIP and Aramco has been adamant they will see at least 70% with existing technologies. Aramco has always been on the fore front of oil and gas field innovation. They basically invented the MRC wells, one of the first to fully utilize SMART completions and downhole shutoffs along with expandable liners and the first to build a fully functioning Intelligent Field where drilling, production etc are all linked digitally to their full field models. They test things to improve recovery efficiency all the time, CO2 injection is just one that you have heard about, there are a host of others that may or may not be deployed at some point. There is no rule that EOR projects are undertaken at the end of a fields normal depletion, in many cases it is instituted quite early in the history to help improve overall recovery.

Indeed. When the "peak oil" subject was mainstream in 2005, one of the main argument was about Ghawar field entering fast depletion, due to EOR techniques used to increase the rate, but advance the date of the peak. 12 years have passed, no sign of depletion... more a plateau.

So, calling for a depletion because they are testing other kind of EOR techniques is probably doomed to be wrong again. Thinking that Ghawar can sustain its rate for decades is probably wrong also. Who knows? We don't have enough data to make anything else than wild guess.

But 5% of current global supply (not Ghawar, US LTO) is a bit easier to understand as we have more data. But it's still difficult to forecast future production.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 16:04:11

tita - That's the tricky thing about our terminology. Ghawar has been depleting for decades. It is depleting today. And will continue depleting for many decades into the future. The rate of depletion varies over time as technology advances. More important the degree of depletion can actually DECILINE over time as new EOR techniques are applied and URR are increased. Same true for production rates. On a far smaller scale my field increased from 12 bopd to over 1,200 bopd by utilizing hz well bores. Obviously it also went from 99.99% depleted to significantly less depleted today. But it is still depleting.

And I've seen many more then one reservoir classified as fully "depleted" returned to production.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 17:23:37

tita wrote: When the "peak oil" subject was mainstream in 2005, one of the main argument was about Ghawar field entering fast depletion, due to EOR techniques used to increase the rate, but advance the date of the peak. 12 years have passed, no sign of depletion... more a plateau.


You are conflating "oil depletion" and "oil production rate." Over the last 12 years Ghawar has produced about 12 BILLION barrels of oil. That means the oil reserves at Ghawar have been depleted by 12 BILLION bbls. Nonetheless the production rate continues to be on "... more of a plateau."



tita wrote: So, calling for a depletion because they are testing other kind of EOR techniques is probably doomed to be wrong again.


Again, you've got it wrong. Every drop of oil produced depletes the reserves. Oil produced using EOR also depletes the reserves.

tita wrote:Thinking that Ghawar can sustain its rate for decades is probably wrong also. Who knows? We don't have enough data to make anything else than wild guess.


I agree 100% that Ghawar can't sustain its current rate of production forever.

AND, actually, we do have some data to consider. We have a very good idea of how much oil has been produced at Ghawar since production began there 60 years ago. And 60 years of oil production have greatly depleted the reserves. We also know that water injection began in 1964 and the water cut had reached about 35-37% by 2003---some 15 years ago, and it is almost certainly significantly higher now since more and more water flooding has been going on for the last 15 years. We know from the 2015 technical paper I link to above that the water cut has reached 98% in at least one area of Ghawar. And we know that Saudi Aramco has started a pilot CO2 EOR project to see if they can improve oil recovery----something that is usually done in very mature oil fields where the oil production rate is at risk of dropping.

Image
The water cut in Ghawar was already over 35% 15 years ago----after 15 additional years of water flooding its got to be higher now.

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