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THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 06:39:09

Humm.

From what I observed in the shale fields of PA, the companies came in and brought much of their work force wth them. Motels did well, a few new. They hired local guys to drive water trucks and such. Quarries and excavators did well building pads. Roads got tore up, driving was dangerous with convoys of trucks running. Guys with leases got a shot of cash. So yes it helped he local economy.

But now that construction is slowing down all those out of own trucks are gone. Roads returning to normal. The construction jobs were temporary. The pads not. Not everyone got a lease or extraction payments. Some folks did well, others not so much. I sense a fair bit of disappointment. Buyers remorse?
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 08:44:35

The county of Susquehannah, PA, has about 44,000 population.
One company operating there, Cabot, has disbursed just over $1 billion in royalty payments over the decade timeframe that they've been producing there.
This is in addition to the $500 million paid for leasing rights.

Pittsburgh could be one of the wealthiest cities in the world if they would encourage development in their area like Allegheny county airport is doing.
The next wave of growth - led by Shell's cracker - will be followed by an even bigger resurgence as evidenced by Foxconn's multibillion dollar plant in Wisconsin.

The massive build out of huge CCGT power plants will provide dirt cheap electricity, further attracting a wide array of industry.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 11:26:50

It's probably worth anyone who is interested in this topic reading the Annual Energy Outlook report regarding gas.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf you may have to go to the main page to download the report.

Key points are US export of natural gas via LNG is projected to increase rapidly over the next few years with new terminals being set for commissioning starting in 2018. This will drive continued demand for US natural gas. Prices overseas currently are a lot higher and this allows companies to take advantage of relatively low operating costs and relatively high sales revenues. At the same time even though gas imports from Canada are seen to decline the US will end up being a net importer of natural gas until 2040. But this makes some sense if natural gas prices in North America don't rise due to abundance given Canadian gas can be imported at a lower price than that received for exported LNG. A number of years ago the company I was with did a global analysis of LNG markets (we were heavily involved in SE Asia where this was always a question regarding supply/demand and the price that could be achieved in Japan. The result of that study was that all countries with large natural gas endowments would eventually seek to tap markets overseas where natural gas was not in abundance via LNG exports. At some point, this would result in a global gas market not dissimilar to what we see with oil and the predicted price (taking into account estimates of recoverable gas from around the world) would be in the $6.50 range. This would, in turn, raise the price of natural gas in North America given companies would export more and more until they found the right price point differential in North America.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:53:55

... and a brief follow up to rocdoc's post ... Historically, LNG plants would require decade - long contracts from prospective customers, with prices tied to Brent/WTI, before these hugely expensive liquification trains would be built.
Now, the US is flipping this model completely on its head with virtual spot pricing being offered tied to HH and flexibility to the point ships at sea are re-directed to other ports.

Reliance Industries, from India, has commissioned a brand new fleet of half dozen ships designed and built to ship liquefied ethane from Morgan's Point to their new cracker in India.
They say that using ethane, even though it is liquefied and shipped halfway around the world, will STILL produce $300 million per year profit over naptha based feedstock.

For the foreseeable future, the US is in an enormously favorable position with such an abundance of low cost feedstock for both manufacturing and power generation.

This is one reason competitors are pulling out all the stops to stymie these developments.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:12:50

"...and built to ship liquefied ethane from Morgan's Point...". Just a bit of trivia: Morgan's Point is one of Rockman's favorite fishing spot on Galveston Bay. More important it also a very busy spot for container exports as well as cruise ships.

Building a multi $Billion LNG facility withing long term contracts with a fixed pricing schedule sounds rather risky to me. I suspect it would also seem so to the bankers. Investors, OTOH, with fantasies of huge returns might not. Chenier lost $billions by building an LNG IMPORT facility without long term purchase contracts. And has now invested more $billions converting into an export facility.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 17:40:34

Most recent EIA ethane exports for July show record breaking 201,000 bbl/day. When Mariner East 2 is in service in a few weeks, exports should skyrocket out of Marcus Hook with ME 2 capacity being 275,000bbl/day.
Propane exports are 1 million bbl/day and should double in the very near future.

I don't think that the general public is aware of the size of these numbers as well as the speed with which it is all taking place.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 19:23:18

coffeeguyzz wrote:I don't think that the general public is aware of the size of these numbers as well as the speed with which it is all taking place.


They aren't. Peakers aren't. They keep pretending that the difference between US production and total imports is consumption, and ignoring the kind of export powerhouse the US is becoming in refined products. Doing what we do as well as anyone...manufacturing!!
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby tita » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 04:21:15

I was looking at the Haynesville production profile here:
https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2017 ... july-2017/

Haynesville is earlier than Marcellus. But in 2012, the play became less attractive... Although initial rates were higher, the depletion is stronger than in Marcellus, and so the average Ultimate Recovery from wells is lower. I'm not sure if it is related to geology or the technique of fracking used... Or maybe both.

Anyway, Haynesville activity slowed from 900 new wells/year in 2011 to 170 new wells/year in 2016... with a production being flat. But recently, activity picked up as operators got through a refracking operation of older wells. It's not a pilot over a few wells, but quite a large operation. The questions of UR and costs, thus profitability of refracking remain... I don't know how it is done, but I suppose you need a rig to do it, and probably have to drill longer laterals...

Anyway, something to look up. There was a lot of talk about re-fracking two years ago, but it wasn't deployed in large scale... This could change to apply recent techniques to vintage wells instead of drilling a new one.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 10:33:45

Newfie wrote:Humm.

From what I observed in the shale fields of PA, the companies came in and brought much of their work force wth them. Motels did well, a few new. They hired local guys to drive water trucks and such. Quarries and excavators did well building pads. Roads got tore up, driving was dangerous with convoys of trucks running. Guys with leases got a shot of cash. So yes it helped he local economy.

But now that construction is slowing down all those out of own trucks are gone. Roads returning to normal. The construction jobs were temporary. The pads not. Not everyone got a lease or extraction payments. Some folks did well, others not so much. I sense a fair bit of disappointment. Buyers remorse?


The article posted is about Lancashire Great Britain, not PA.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 12:49:54

Haynesville is earlier than Marcellus. But in 2012, the play became less attractive... Although initial rates were higher, the depletion is stronger than in Marcellus, and so the average Ultimate Recovery from wells is lower. I'm not sure if it is related to geology or the technique of fracking used... Or maybe both.


Activity shifted away from Haynesville mainly due to lower nat gas prices and the fact Haynesville is dry gas. Costs for extraction are also a bit higher than in the Marcellus but mainly it is the fact there are enough liquids in the Marcellus to make wells a bit more profitable with lower nat gas prices.
People have gone back to the Haynesville as of late I think mainly because it is well connected to gas pipelines and markets so if natural gas prices ever increase it would be a good place to be.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 20:36:50

A shale gas superstar utters the unmentionable: “sweet spot exhaustion”

November 27, 20177:43 AM Terry Etam

Those who are concerned the U.S. might run out of natural gas in the years ahead ignore estimates made by government and industry experts that this country has enough shale gas to meet domestic needs as well as export opportunities through the rest of this century and beyond. (The Washington Examiner, November 2017).

There’s a fine line, sometimes indistinguishable, between saying things no one wants to hear and being the crazy guy on the corner shouting at governments or mailboxes. The weird part, consistent with both roles, is that people don’t necessarily disagree; they just pretend they don’t hear anything.

So it’s been for anyone that doesn’t subscribe to the prevailing wisdom about the state of global petroleum production. There is a juggernaut of common opinion that shale resources, primarily US ones, are all that matters any more. Oil and natural gas prices are low, and they will stay low indefinitely, because any uptick in prices will see a flood of new product hit the market from the prolific US shale fields.

The opinion is as close to universal as you can get. It is shared and propagated by even the likes of the International Energy Agency (IEA) whose recent World Energy Outlook spawned headlines such as this on Bloomberg’s site: “U.S. To Dominate Oil Markets in Biggest Boom in World History.” I could find another dozen similar headlines in a minute, and so can you. These wacko stories morph into something else, like what happens in the children’s game of telephone, and out the other end come quotes like this from one of Bloomberg’s famous editorialists: “…the US now has the largest reserves on the planet.” Not quite. That erroneous statistic is a direct result of how the hyperbolic messaging gets adapted by the public. This latter commentator’s output goes to thousands of fund managers worldwide, who are getting this message in one ear and into the other comes news that pension and other huge funds are shunning oil and gas stocks. The message then is loud and clear: stay away from the industry, it has no future because prices can’t rise, and it has no future because green energy plans will render it valueless.

This whole commonly-accepted narrative rests on a key tenet as an overarching truth: that shale resources are so vast that not only will they provide production for a century, but that their production will grow rapidly in the current price environment.

It’s a circular load of rubbish that exists because almost no one understands petroleum reservoirs. Those that do are often employed by shale drillers, so they keep their mouth shut and let the IR departments do the talking – about thousands and thousands of homogenous locations, decades of drilling inventories, and superb economics regardless of commodity prices. Don’t take my word for it, check out any IR presentation from a leading shale producer. It will be evident that any one of them could supply the entire US market if they so chose, but, ah, they don’t feel like it.

The messaging has been so relentless that one almost sounds crazy to consider that it might not all be true, just like it sounded crazy when Warren Buffett sidestepped the dot-com boom. He sounded like a crank that had been left behind. I don’t know if he appreciated the irony as much as he should have.

I’m no Warren Buffett, and the only voices that can shed any sanity on this conversation have to come from someone inside the machine. Lo and behold, one finally showed up, and not any sort of peripheral entity – it was from one of the most prominent and successful shale players, one who’s own IR presentations and comments display the loopy enthusiasm that can only be afforded by well-crafted “Beware of Forward Looking Statements” advisories.

The pioneer of this new disclosure is Range Resources, a huge Marcellus producer. In the most recent quarterly conference call, the management team didn’t shy away from their claim to have thousands of locations capable of IP rates of more than 25 million cubic feet per day (or, as noted before, the equivalent of two-thirds of the nation’s total output), and how could they. But what they did do was utter a phrase that the whole world needs to hear: sweet spot exhaustion.

Why is that such a big deal? Well, consider the hopes that the whole world has now placed on US shale’s shoulders, as reflected in five-year forward prices that are flat or falling. The assumption is not just that the production is significant, but that it can grow at will, at ever lower prices. It’s all based on a lack of knowledge of petroleum reservoirs, and a blind faith in producers’ IR material.

It took decades to knock the notion out of people’s heads that oil doesn’t exist in vast underground swimming pools, although many still don’t know what exactly it resides in or how it gets out. A far smaller subset would then understand that the rock in question is far from homogenous and that results can and will vary wildly. This is where the sleight of hand of producers appears, where they drill a 4 well pad with great results and then announce that they “have thousands just like it.” What grounds does a Wall Street investment banker or Paris-based IEA analyst or a Bloomberg prophet have to doubt them, when the actual proof won’t be known for a decade, if ever?

The analysts who asked questions on the Range conference call did a masterful job of missing the point (the phrase was used 3 times), like Wile E. Coyote running straight past the “cliff ahead” sign. They rained down questions about lateral lengths, IP rates, and other key inputs for their nonsense machines. They offered congratulations on spectacular results, and were like kids at bedtime who wanted just one more story.

To be clear, none of the above is to imply that the US is in any sort of production trouble. Natural gas output may indeed climb further with a limited number of rigs in use. But those statistics have more to do with the fact that wells are now up to 3 miles in lateral length, which of course is going to impact productivity in a positive way.

Consider this from the US Energy Information Agency – Pennsylvania production has increased 80 percent in the past 5 years to over 15 billion cubic feet per day, which is most of the Marcellus production. However, in the past two years, half the drilling permits and three-quarters of rigs in use were in three counties – Washington, Greene and Susqehanna – which have a combined total area of 2,271 square miles. At aggressive 300 ft spacings, it would take 6 wells to develop each square mile. Even assuming all of that is developable, which it most likely is not, how long will it take to develop those counties when each well is 3 miles long? And is the zone as good across all this area? I don’t know, but I do know that at present rates there won’t be much in 10 years never mind a hundred. And in the US, there is nothing like the Marcellus. Once these prime sweet spots are developed, it’s downhill from there.

This isn’t really news; there are pictures that make this obvious that have been shown here before. What is new is to hear one of the shrillest proponents of the “shale gas is the whole story” story admit that the days of unbridled optimism will soon be behind us.

Hmm, the next time I hear the guy going off on the mailboxes, I’m going to pay attention. He might be on to something.


https://boereport.com/2017/11/27/a-shal ... xhaustion/
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 20:56:04

Subjectivist wrote:
A shale gas superstar utters the unmentionable: “sweet spot exhaustion”

November 27, 20177:43 AM Terry Etam



Interesting in that anyone considers it unmentionable. Folks were discussing it within a given resource play decades ago...the same people who were developing those sweet spots locally before anyone else in the country even knew (not that they do now) what source rock production even was.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 21:00:36

Here's another nugget from Range's senior VP:

“With the growth profile that maybe a lot of people have, they think the core goes on forever. They think technology can make tier-one acreage core acreage, but it can’t,” Farquharson said. “Because if it could … there would be a lot of rigs running in the Barnett (Shale).”
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 21:11:07

GoghGoner wrote:Here's another nugget from Range's senior VP:

“With the growth profile that maybe a lot of people have, they think the core goes on forever. They think technology can make tier-one acreage core acreage, but it can’t,” Farquharson said. “Because if it could … there would be a lot of rigs running in the Barnett (Shale).”


Or the Fayetteville. Or Indiana County, PA. It is worthy of note that while some chuckleheads think that this type of resource evaluation is unmentionable, the EIA build exactly this type of gradation into their models more than a few years ago, and also built their initial geologically based prototype in as well. Hard to do resource to reserve conversion calculations without including some fundamental geology. Just ask David Hughes. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 02:03:48

Couple of quick observations ...

The very next day after EQT announced the spectacular 24 Hr IP from the Scotts Run well at 72 MMcf ... their stock price dropped 7%.
Although only the sellers could say why they sold, the consensus was when the vast potential of the Utica (which the SR targeted) was recognized, the abundance of gas would make its value less.

I do not know how much understating the Range VP was attempting, but he is correct that there is only so much top tier acreage.
However, it is a vast size, as well as multi layered.

The 3 counties mentioned should also include the 1,100+ sq. miles of Bradford county as well as parts of Lycoming, Wyoming, and Sullivan as they are also highly productive. Bradford is "Chesapeake country" and they have done little drilling these past 2 years.
However, their McGavin 6 well, located just over the line in Lycoming, has produced 3.25 Billion cubic feet in 64 days, the most productive unconventional well of all time.

The northeast PA Marcellus has upper and lower target zones as the formation is over 300' thick in much of that area.
No mention was made of the Marcellus in West Virginia, nor the Utica in all 3 states (Ohio, PA, and WV).
The Upper Devonian trends of Middlesex, Rhinestreet, Genesee, Geneseo, and Burket have barely been drilled, yet 2017 and 2016 results are extremely bullish.
In a few weeks, just east of Montreal (yes, Canada), more drilling of the Utica will resume as the production of 10 years ago was halted by a moratorium.
Big, big trend the Utica.

Lottsa gas in the Appalachian Basin ... lots.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 02:39:56

...quick edit on the McGavin well ... should be Wyoming county, not Lycoming
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 03:44:06

The Utica shale has been very good to Ohio. Back in 2012 our liberal Republican Governor tried to change the rules so that the state government could more or less triple the tax rates they get paid by the development of the Utica once people had poured a lot of money into making it pay off. That is why he lost the eastern half of the state to Trump in the primary race last year.
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The Super Basin Behind US NatGas Dominance

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Dec 2017, 14:55:12

Natural gas production in the United States has skyrocketed over the past five years, making the carbon-light fossil fuel cheaper to access and plentiful for export, according to a new report by the Energy Information Administration. Production in the Appalachia region alone has seen a jump of 14 billion cubic feet per day since 2012, driving the bulk of output growth in recent years and giving the region a 2016 output of 22.1 billion cubic feet per day. National output soared to 72.3 billion cubic feet per day last year– that’s more than Russia, Africa, Iran and Qatar – the latter being the world’s most prolific liquefied natural gas exporter. The Appalachian basin alone produced more natural gas than any nation except for Russia. But a decline is on the horizon, according to data emerging from new wells. The average


The Super Basin Behind US NatGas Dominance
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 11:49:05

New method could help quantify untapped natural gas reservoirs

More than 30 states have shale formations that harbor natural gas underground, according to the Energy Information Administration. But industry experts can't agree on exactly how much fuel is inside. That's because natural gas and other hydrocarbons lie inside nano-scale, difficult-to-measure pores in shale rocks, which have properties that are not yet understood.

Now, using neutron scattering, Liu and a team of researchers from UD, NIST and Aramco Services Company have developed a novel non-invasive method to measure the variation of surface properties deep inside porous materials.

This method can help natural gas experts to better understand shale samples by examining the compositional distribution on porous surfaces inside the shales that directly influences the storage and transport of hydrocarbons. This would eventually help them decide whether to invest time and resources to extract gas from the formation the samples came from. The findings of this study, published Thursday, Feb. 22 in the journal Nature Communications, could also be used to understand many other different types of porous materials using neutron scattering or X-ray scattering.

This new method can reveal new information that other methods do not, such as the surface heterogeneity. Put simply, it provides information that helps researchers better understand what they are working with. When added to other information collected from a site, it can aid decision-making.

"Most of the other techniques used in the petroleum field provide the 'average' values of sample parameters," said study author Wei-Shan Chiang, a postdoctoral researcher in chemical and biomolecular engineering at UD who does work onsite at NIST Center for Neutron Research and at Aramco Services Company. "Our method provides both 'average' and 'deviation' (the width of distribution) of the material properties."

Full Text: Wei-Shan Chiang et al. A non-invasive method to directly quantify surface heterogeneity of porous materials, Nature Communications (2018)
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 20:28:26

Although the science involved in that report is way over my head, the ongoing research, discoveries and commercial applications continues to amaze me.

So much innovation surrounding a wide range of interests ... nanotechnology, materials (graphene), data crunching on an unfathomable scale, on and on.

Thanks for the link.
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