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THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

This Is The Big Self-Driving Milestone We've Been Waiting Fo

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:50:29

Waymo, the Alphabet (GOOGL) autonomous-car unit, announced Tuesday at AutoMobility LA that it's ready to put passengers in self-driving cars — without an accompanying test or backup driver.


Tony told us where this leads!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:56:29

Sit back, put your feet up, and let the car do the work. This is the dream of self-driving cars for many, a nightmare for others, and a curiosity for most. Whatever you may feel, this is fast becoming reality as cars with no driver roll out on roads right now.


Reshape those cities...just as Tony Seba has already suggested!
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 04:11:25

There's nothing in that article about actually reshaping cities.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 07:00:17

Bull shit 100% .
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:25:43

SeaGypsy wrote:There's nothing in that article about actually reshaping cities.


Watch the video in my sig-line and you will see how it might be envisioned.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:27:12

dirtyharry wrote:Bull shit 100% .


DENIER!!!!!

All the information for the how is contained in the video in my sigline. Feel free to ignore it sock puppet,it won't stop it from rewriting the rules of the world as you know it.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 13:57:36

AdamB, as of late your response to critical analysis (such as that promoted by dirtyharry) seems always to return to several Tony Seba videos. You owe us a direct and concise analysis and discussion of his data and model for 'disruptive'
systems.

Disruption is best described as a rapid and chaotic change. To date, autonomous vehicle development has been anything but rapid or chaotic. It has been snail-pace slow.
Google's self driving car project was formerly led by Sebastian Thrun, former director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and co-inventor of Google Street View. Thrun's team at Stanford created the robotic vehicle Stanley which won the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge and its US$2 million prize from the United States Department of Defense.[6] The team developing the system consisted of 15 engineers working for Google, including Chris Urmson, Mike Montemerlo, and Anthony Levandowski who had worked on the DARPA Grand and Urban Challenges.[7]

Sensor technology and associated computer algorithms (at an intial cost of $150,000 in equipment including a $70,000 LIDAR system) have not substantially improved in 12 years of development. The installation of charger infrastructure and purchases of these sensors (for anything more than backup protection and lane maintenance) has not even entered the mass market.

When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 17:37:16

pstarr wrote:When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?

If you would bother to watch the video, Seba makes the numbers, the disruption mechanism, the economics, and the timeframe very clear. In short, he sees the vehicle market largely disrupted by 2030.

You might not like what he says, but at least instead of using hand waving and vague references to fear, he defines his terms and makes his case. He also shows how the building blocks have been coming into place to make the case happen.

He also uses various real world tech examples where rapid disruption has happened, and points out that this (analyzing and predicting disruption) is something he does, and has been doing, for a living.

...

Personally, I think this date is too disruptive for cars because of his assumption that fully autonomous EV taxis will be ramping up starting at about 2021. Given all the issues that need to be resolved to get that to happen ubiquitously, I just think that date is much too aggressive. (By perhaps a decade or so, is my best guess -- and I admit it -- that's just an educated guess).

However, a similar timeframe for solar disrupting the conventional FF powerplant business seems entirely realistic to me, if the cost curve he's pointed out for solar panels stays roughly intact.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 17:48:57

Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 21:19:58

pstarr wrote:AdamB, as of late your response to critical analysis (such as that promoted by dirtyharry) seems always to return to several Tony Seba videos.


Actually just one. Why do you feel the need to lie about how many are required? And dirty didn't have any critical analysis at all, so two lies in one sentence! You are on a roll this weekend!

pstarr wrote: You owe us a direct and concise analysis and discussion of his data and model for 'disruptive'
systems.


Watch the video, and then you'll know exactly why what you just said proves you haven't. You can't stand it, can you, that peak oil back when you claim it happened created the exact circumstances needed to make it irrelevant, don't you?

Or is it because we are talking about an actual expert in the field here that has you all flummoxed, I mean really you and I both know there isn't any Stoner Instructional facility at Stanford, right?

pstarr wrote:
Disruption is best described as a rapid and chaotic change. To date, autonomous vehicle development has been anything but rapid or chaotic. It has been snail-pace slow.


And if you watched the video, you would know why what you just said is axiomatic to an S-curve. And no, it isn't snail pace slow. Surely you learned the Albert Bartlett lesson somewhere back in your infant peak oil days?

pstarr wrote:Sensor technology and associated computer algorithms (at an intial cost of $150,000 in equipment including a $70,000 LIDAR system) have not substantially improved in 12 years of development.


Thank you for proving, yet again, that you didn't watch the video...did he use too big of words in the intro for you? Because he already has examples that prove your statement wrong. Completely wrong. Just goes to show why they don't have Instructional facilities of the Stoner type at Stanford I guess?

Pstarr wrote:When is Tony Seba's 'disruption' going to happen? Or is that an article of faith as per a particular Techno Religion? If so, would you be willing to share the Original Text?


I provided a video specifically for the folks with reading comprehension problems, so this really was aimed right at the likes of you. He talks, and has pictures and stuff! Answers all your questions. Like moving comic books, for the...what is the politically correct word we use nowadays....thinking challenged? :)
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Dec 2017, 01:55:05

pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:25:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote: However, a similar timeframe for solar disrupting the conventional FF powerplant business seems entirely realistic to me, if the cost curve he's pointed out for solar panels stays roughly intact.


Here is the disruption. Its called a scam. "Renewables" are parasitic, they actually cannot deliver grid level power and freeload on the ff infrastructure while bankrupting it because the ff equipment is idle. Thus there is no energy transition. Their "solution" is either the ludicrous Tesla battery or demand management. In other words, you turn on the light switch and the light might not come on. If thats the signature of an advanced civilization then cave people were advanced.

This schizophrenic article is proof that it will never work except as a wealth transfer mechanism.

The high cost of cheap electricity: Don Pittis

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/energy- ... -1.4428048

A glut of electric power means rock bottom wholesale prices that leave taxpayers on the hook

Producing electricity has never been so cheap.

Efficient generation technology, including low-cost wind and solar, and natural gas prices at levels no one predicted a decade ago have contributed to those bargain prices.

According to the rules of market economics, that should be a good thing.

But whether through their electricity bills or through taxes, Canadians have been left paying
for an expensive legacy system of power generation that produces more energy than the economy can consume.
Stuck with old tech

While similar problems exist across the country, energy economist Adam Fremeth says it may be most pronounced in Ontario. He points to the example of natural gas plants that spend most of their time on standby

While some people say the massive new Tesla battery now up and running in Australia is the solution, the three experts pointed to a cheaper way of creating new capacity that doesn't require building anything — instead depending on pricing mechanisms to force consumers and industrial users to avoid using power during periods of peak demand.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:25:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.


Seba the Clown isn't worthy of participating in a 3rd rate circus.

Canonical Instabilities of Autonomous Vehicle Systems: The Unsettling Reality Behind the Dreams of Greed

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319699349

Any vehicle/road system is inherently unstable in the control theory sense as a consequence of the basic irregularities of the traffic stream, the road network, and their interactions, placing it in the realm of the Data Rate Theorem that mandates a minimum necessary rate of control information for stability. It appears that large-scale V2V/V2I systems will experience correspondingly large-scale failures analogous to the vast, propagating fronts of power network blackouts, and possibly less benign but more subtle patterns of individual vehicle, platoon, and mesoscale dysfunction.
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Re: Autonomous cars could reshape cities as we know them

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 16:18:22

StarvingLion wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Why would I watch his videos? Seba is a goofy clown and everything he says is an extrapolation of his own techtopian dreams. Without basis in real technology.

Siri is smarter then Seba lol

But of course. You should learn NOTHING, never expose yourself to new ideas, and just post nonsense like a clown.

Just don't wonder why you're considered less and less credible around here as time goes on.

You calling Seba a clown when you can't even be bothered to know ANYTHING about what he's talking about pretty much says it all.


Seba the Clown isn't worthy of participating in a 3rd rate circus.

Canonical Instabilities of Autonomous Vehicle Systems: The Unsettling Reality Behind the Dreams of Greed

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319699349

Any vehicle/road system is inherently unstable in the control theory sense as a consequence of the basic irregularities of the traffic stream, the road network, and their interactions, placing it in the realm of the Data Rate Theorem that mandates a minimum necessary rate of control information for stability. It appears that large-scale V2V/V2I systems will experience correspondingly large-scale failures analogous to the vast, propagating fronts of power network blackouts, and possibly less benign but more subtle patterns of individual vehicle, platoon, and mesoscale dysfunction.

So in your delusional world, the traffic control systems (i.e. NETWORKS) that control all the airliners can't possibly work. They must be "unstable" since they require information and coordination to function. Gee, don't tell the airlines, airports, or the passengers that just in the US traveled by airliner nearly 642 billion miles in 2015 (with the total miles steadily increasing annually, at least through 2015.) :roll:

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita ... 01_40.html

Why is it that doomers keep making claims that fail a 10 second common sense test, but keep acting like they have the FIRST hint of any meaningful knowledge of the subject on which they incessantly blather?

Is it because other doomers just accept ANY doomy projection without ANY critical thought?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 19:31:59

My theory is, the lack of a public backlash is about the news media and Government keeping these incidents from lingering on the front of the news cycle. Everyone knows if the Media majors oppose something they beat the drum about it in hopes of creating a public outcry against whatever it is. The media reports these fatalities and then immedietly drops them, which tells me they are pushing technotopia.

What Uber’s fatal accident could mean for the autonomous-car industry

The first pedestrian death leads some to ask whether the industry is moving too fast to deploy the technology.

by Will Knight March 19, 2018

The autonomous-car industry faces closer scrutiny and criticism after a self-driving Uber killed a pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona, on Sunday evening.

Full details of the accident are unclear, but the local police department issued a statement saying that a woman was fatally struck after walking in front of an Uber car traveling in self-driving mode. Uber says it is cooperating with a police investigation and has suspended testing of its self-driving vehicles in Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Toronto.

It is the first time a self-driving vehicle has killed a pedestrian, and the event is already causing some to question the pace at which the technology is moving. Besides Uber, dozens of companies, including established car makers and small startups, are rushing to test experimental self-driving vehicles and autonomous systems on roads. These efforts have received blessing from local governments because the technology seems so promising and because a driver is usually behind the wheel as a backup. A safety driver was in the front seat when the accident in Tempe occurred.

Though automated driving could ultimately save countless lives on roads, some say the technology is being deployed too quickly.

At a time when many have lauded the technology as ready for large-scale deployment, “this is clear proof that is not yet the case,” says Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at MIT who studies automated driving. “Until we understand the testing and deployment of these systems further, we need to take our time and work through the evolution of the technology,” he says.

The accident is unlikely to set a legal precedent, says Ryan Calo, who is researching the legal implications of vehicle autonomy at the University of Washington. Even if the victim is found to have been partly responsible, the company may also be liable, and it will be keen to settle in order to avoid a test case, he says.

Calo calls on those developing AI-based vehicles to think very carefully about the potential impact of their systems on human lives, and consider the legal and ethical implications.

The ethical questions surrounding self-driving cars—and especially a conundrum known as the “trolley problem,” which requires that a car choose between two potential victims in an accident—have confused the issue, he adds: “I don’t think the trolley-problem conversation has been at all helpful.” Of the accident that killed the woman in Arizona, he says, “The sensors probably didn’t pick her up, or the algorithm didn’t understand what it’s seeing.”

Regulators will no doubt take a closer look at the technology after this latest setback. This morning both the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said they have launched probes.

Subbarao Kambhampati, a professor at Arizona State University who specializes in AI, says the Uber accident raises questions about the ability of safety drivers to monitor systems effectively, especially after long hours of testing. Research conducted by Reimer and others reinforces this point. Other research has shown the challenge of establishing communications between self-driving systems and pedestrians.

The accident comes amid what seemed like rapid progress on self-driving technology and a push to loosen legal restrictions. Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet spun out of Google, announced late last year that it was taking the safety driver out of its vehicles and said it would launch a driverless taxi service in Phoenix later this year.

Just days ago, Waymo, Uber, and others had urged Congress to pass legislation that would pave the way for self-driving cars in the US. The accident will most likely slow the passage of that bill.

There have been a handful of accidents involving self-driving vehicles, including a crash in Florida in May 2016 involving a Tesla Model S in Autopilot mode that failed to see a truck across the road ahead. The Tesla’s driver was killed. Federal investigators have found the technology to be at fault in several of these accidents, but they have so far resisted the urge to implement stricter rules or halt testing altogether.

So far, the public has showed little sign of turning against the technology, even after such incidents. “I am not really sure this is going to lead to a public worry or backlash,” says Kambhampati. “Because honestly, I thought there would be more of a backlash after the Tesla accident.”


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6105 ... -industry/
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 23:48:20

We don't even know if the accident is anything the car should or could have avoided yet. The driver didn't react either.

Shouldn't we know what the investigation says before we start making judgements?

I'm all for being cautious, bot OTOH, humans overall have an appalling number of accidents.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 00:20:26

Autonomous cars do not have to be completely safe. They only have to be modestly better than human drivers before their widespread adoption. Then we keep carefull records and they will rapidly improve as the software matures, soon becoming very much better than human drivers.

In terms of lawsuits, consider for one moment being the only human driver in a multiple vehicle fatal accident. Guess who pays all the damages.

You may at this point believe that you never want to ride in, much less own an autonomous vehicle. My guess is that you won't be able to afford the insurance price penalty for manual control.
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 11:21:44

KaiserJeep wrote:
You may at this point believe that you never want to ride in, much less own an autonomous vehicle. My guess is that you won't be able to afford the insurance price penalty for manual control.


I have insurance for a manual controlled vehicle, been affording it for many years. People have been insuring manually controlled vehicles for a 100+ years now but in the future it will suddenly become unaffordable???? It may become a redundant option as people find there are better things to do than manually operate a vehicle, but if anything insurance will become more affordable, manual control will be like adding an "occasional driver" to your insurance policy.

One of these firsts occurred in 1897 when Gilbert L. Loomis, perhaps spurred by the legal hassles that recent car crashes seemed to be causing, bought an insurance policy from Travelers Insurance Company for his car.

This policy is widely considered the first car insurance policy even though it technically was written as a horse and carriage policy. It covered Loomis in case he hurt someone in an accident or damaged their property.


https://www.dmv.org/articles/history-of-car-insurance/
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 11:53:50

Yes, I am in fact saying that auto insurance for a rare and unusual manually driven vehicle will become relatively unaffordable. This will not be happening overnight, but it seems inevitable. Once autonomous vehicles are common and the software matures, the insurance rates will then reflect the fact that the few remaining accidents, by and large, will all (or the vast majority) be due to manually driven vehicles. Then look at who the people driving such cars will be filing damages against - the oddball and oh-so-careless manual driver. Then, even though it may break your heart, that fully restored muscle car or antique auto will become a static display, because unless you are a "one percenter", you won't be able to afford the insurance premium for manual controls.
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Re: THE Self-Driving Car / Ridesharing Thread

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 11:56:03

jawagord wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:
You may at this point believe that you never want to ride in, much less own an autonomous vehicle. My guess is that you won't be able to afford the insurance price penalty for manual control.


I have insurance for a manual controlled vehicle, been affording it for many years. People have been insuring manually controlled vehicles for a 100+ years now but in the future it will suddenly become unaffordable???? It may become a redundant option as people find there are better things to do than manually operate a vehicle, but if anything insurance will become more affordable, manual control will be like adding an "occasional driver" to your insurance policy.

One of these firsts occurred in 1897 when Gilbert L. Loomis, perhaps spurred by the legal hassles that recent car crashes seemed to be causing, bought an insurance policy from Travelers Insurance Company for his car.

This policy is widely considered the first car insurance policy even though it technically was written as a horse and carriage policy. It covered Loomis in case he hurt someone in an accident or damaged their property.


https://www.dmv.org/articles/history-of-car-insurance/

Shouldn't we learn that the future isn't always like the past? Especially when new technologies get involved?

If cars get to be 10X or 100X better than humans re avoiding serious accidents, and cars being able to communicate directly allow things to occur like lessening the need for traffic lights, don't be surprised when society wants to prevent humans from driving on public roads. And raising the price for things like insurance would be a strong nudge in that direction.

I would imagine that you could have your muscle car towed to a private track and drive there if you have lots of money to cover the expenses and fees. That will likely become a hobby like flying small planes -- expensive and relatively rare.

(How many people ride horses now? Owning and caring for a horse is expensive /and or a LOT of work, especially if you live in a city. But 150-200 years ago, horses were the primary way people traveled any distance).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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