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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:26:13

Plantagenet wrote:I started this thread because insiders in the Oil Industry who work in the Permian are talking about a 2020 peak in the Permian. These are people who are in a position to know exactly how successful current well completions are, and just how much more production can be increased. For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


So...Wolfcamp production in the Permian...back in say 1955, produced by Texaco and Amoco, Mobil, Union Oil of California, Amerada Hess, Arco, was discovered by Pioneer...42 years later when they were formed in 1997?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:28:15

pstarr wrote:So yes, tight shale has peaked. The last great hurrah


Until the next peak anyway.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 20:03:37

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I started this thread because insiders in the Oil Industry who work in the Permian are talking about a 2020 peak in the Permian. These are people who are in a position to know exactly how successful current well completions are, and just how much more production can be increased. For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


So...Wolfcamp production in the Permian...back in say 1955, produced by Texaco and Amoco, Mobil, Union Oil of California, Amerada Hess, Arco, was discovered by Pioneer...42 years later when they were formed in 1997?


You really don't know anything about this topic, do you?

You really think back in 1955 they were drilling horizontal wells and fracking the tight shales in the Permian section to produce oil?

Hmmmm---funny how all that land in West Texas was available for a song for leasing when Pioneer began building its position 45 year later then.

You'd better go back in your time machine to 1955 and take another look. Let me know how much oil you see being produced by fracking tight shales in 1955. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 21:28:32

mmasters wrote:I predict by 2025 or 2030 the US will begin to have natural gas vehicles in the market. We've got at least 20-30 years of natural gas.


Natural Gas: That really stupid transportation fuel.

Exporting Natural Gas: EROEI disaster.

US Natural Gas "Industry": Bankrupt.

Natural Gas Era: Palaces and Slums.
America cannot afford combustion.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 21:29:42

I think his point was you said:
For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


which technically isn't true given the Permian section has been produced from for decades and the potential from the various shale units was well known a long time ago (they are the source rocks for historical production from the sandstone layers in the section). Pioneer was the first into the play using horizontal wells and multi-stage fracs which became possible due to improving technologies.

A thought to consider on this is that Pioneers view are based on what they see as being the economically producible part of the Permian at this point in time. It doesn't address the potential for improved completions, higher prices, lower drilling costs, etc nor the potential timing of those elements. Folks need to remember that the current average recovery factor from shales is around 5 - 7 % compared to average primary recovery from all drive mechanisms of around 35%. That leaves quite a bit of room for improvements in technology to play a role. Timing is of course key but it is a mugs game to predict that.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 22:19:41

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I started this thread because insiders in the Oil Industry who work in the Permian are talking about a 2020 peak in the Permian. These are people who are in a position to know exactly how successful current well completions are, and just how much more production can be increased. For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


So...Wolfcamp production in the Permian...back in say 1955, produced by Texaco and Amoco, Mobil, Union Oil of California, Amerada Hess, Arco, was discovered by Pioneer...42 years later when they were formed in 1997?


You really don't know anything about this topic, do you?

You really think back in 1955 they were drilling horizontal wells and fracking the tight shales in the Permian section to produce oil?


You didn't say that. You said tight shale resource.

I simply went and rounded up the obvious usual suspects doing Wolfcamp wells back before Pioneer was a company. No exclusions for your favorite 85+ year old drilling technique or 65+ year old completion technique.

You know, you usually don't post like pstarr after an all night mushroom and booze binge, but you appear to be trying, so I must ask, are you trolling us all by pretending to be that disconnected from reality?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 12:43:35

AdamB wrote:[

I simply went and rounded up the obvious usual suspects doing Wolfcamp wells back before Pioneer was a company.


Of course.

But drilling done 85 years ago has nothing to do with the current oil production boom produced by using modern horizontal drilling techniques and fracking in the tight shales of the Permian.

Get it now?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 19:14:51

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:[

I simply went and rounded up the obvious usual suspects doing Wolfcamp wells back before Pioneer was a company.


Of course.

But drilling done 85 years ago has nothing to do with the current oil production boom produced by using modern horizontal drilling techniques and fracking in the tight shales of the Permian.

Get it now?

Cheers!


I get that you are moving the goal posts and pretending your original claim was something else. But you didn't answer the more important question...are you just trolling us all right now? Usually your posts reflect thought, but pretending that tight resource development was invented by Pioneer ain't that. Plus the entire link between the Permian and global peak is about as ignorant a statement as Simmons saying the same thing about Ghawar. Admittedly, you would need to keep doing it for years for someone to draw the conclusion that you are in fact as delusional as pstarr, but still. Hardly someone to emulate.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 19:55:27

AdamB wrote: Usually your posts reflect thought, but pretending that tight resource development was invented by Pioneer ain't that.


Your posts also usually reflect some thoughtfulness, but you clearly didn't understand my posts above.

For instance, I never stated that tight resource development was "invented" by Pioneer. I said that Pioneer was a big early player in developing tight oil shale resources in the Permian basin. This enabled Pioneer to become by far the largest oil producer in the Permian basin. This suggests that Pioneer has considerable expertise concerning tight oil shale in the Permian basin. What aspect of those factual statements could you possibly object to?

AdamB wrote: the entire link between the Permian and global peak is about as ignorant a statement as Simmons saying the same thing about Ghawar.


I'm not following you on this point either. Matt Simmons was a very intelligent man---its ignorant to call him ignorant----and IMHO Simmon's book about Ghawar remains valid----Ghawar produces about 5 mm bbls of oil per day. When Ghawar peaks there is a good chance that production will collapse there just as rapidly as it did when Cantarell peaked and production dropped to near zero in less than a year. Simmons is 100% right that quickly taking 5 million bbls/day out of the oil market when Ghawar peaks is going to cause some real problems in the oil market. Yes, Simmons did't predict the extremely successful development we've seen of unconventional oil resources after conventional oil peaked, but his concerns about Ghawar peaking remain 100% valid.

The link I'm suggesting between Peak Permian and peak oil is more speculative, I admit, but the logic is pretty simple to follow. Let me lay my ideas on this out for you in four simple steps:

(1) Global conventional oil has already peaked
(2) Global oil production nonetheless continues to rise due to growth in unconventional oil production
(3) If unconventional oil production peaks, then growth in conventional AND unconventional oil production will stop, and we will once again be looking at peak oil
(4) There is concern that the Permian is going to peak ca. 2020 (see the link at the top of this thread), while other unconventional tight oil areas like Bakken seem to have already peaked.

Cheers!

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 21:17:04

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: Usually your posts reflect thought, but pretending that tight resource development was invented by Pioneer ain't that.


Your posts also usually reflect some thoughtfulness, but you clearly didn't understand my posts above.


Sure I did. Hence the question about whether or not you were trolling.

Plantagenet wrote:For instance, I never stated that tight resource development was "invented" by Pioneer. I said that Pioneer was a big early player in developing tight oil shale resources in the Permian basin.


No, you didn't. Here is what you said:

Plantagenet wrote:For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


Pioneer didn't "basically" discover tight shale resources in the Permian. And that has nothing to do with horizontal wells or hydraulic fracturing.

Plantagenet wrote: This enabled Pioneer to become by far the largest oil producer in the Permian basin. This suggests that Pioneer has considerable expertise concerning tight oil shale in the Permian basin. What aspect of those factual statements could you possibly object to?


The Spraberry isn't usually considered a shale, and that is where Pioneer makes about 2/3's of its total production. And where about 2/3's of its production increase since 2010 has happened. You have a theory as to why you are implying that they became the largest not because of a pre-existing acreage position and multiple formations chock full of oil (the Spraberry being their favorite) but because of shale developing in the Wolfcamp?

Perhaps you are unaware of Pioneer's origin, and the acreage that came along with the creation of the company? And then the decisions to increase that acreage position? That is what led them to being the largest producer..some 900,000 acres. Scott Sheffield is certainly bullish on why.

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: the entire link between the Permian and global peak is about as ignorant a statement as Simmons saying the same thing about Ghawar.

Yes, Simmons did't predict the extremely successful development we've seen of unconventional oil resources after conventional oil peaked, but his concerns about Ghawar peaking remain 100% valid.


Concerns about ANY field peaking is valid, just as the capability to UNpeak is, it is like pretending that a claim of the sun rising in the east tomorrow is a wildly original idea. Simmons couldn't define "unconventional" oil any better than you or anyone else, and Simmons didn't see shale coming because he was IGNORANT, he could see it in his time just as posters on this website could, so you want to claim Simmons was so brilliant that he couldn't even see coming what some random internet forum posters could see? Fine...you can consider him not ignorant...and I can rank his understanding of the resource base as inferior to average forum denizens.

Plantagenet wrote:The link I'm suggesting between Peak Permian and peak oil is more speculative, I admit, but the logic is pretty simple to follow. Let me lay my ideas on this out for you in four simple steps:

(1) Global conventional oil has already peaked
(2) Global oil production nonetheless continues to rise due to growth in unconventional oil production
(3) If unconventional oil production peaks, then growth in conventional AND unconventional oil production will stop, and we will once again be looking at peak oil
(4) There is concern that the Permian is going to peak ca. 2020 (see the link at the top of this thread), while other unconventional tight oil areas like Bakken seem to have already peaked.

Cheers!


1) You can't define conventional oil because oil is oil and isn't categorized by the type of rock it comes from, otherwise we would have semi-conventional carbonate oil, conventional sandstone oil, unconventional Orinoco oil, sorta conventional resource play oil, and all of these oils being...you know...just oil. So no, global OIL production hasn't peaked.
2) Is true and has nothing to do with folks sub-setting oil for arbitrary reasons, oil mostly being...you know...oil.
3) We've already looked at peak oil. 1979 being the good one, with multiple others claimed since then. You, me, everyone on this website has successfully navigated all of those, and it is unlikely yet another oil production cycle (accounted for by the sine wave of oil production theory) will change that, unless you have a theory why the NEXT peak oil is expected to be different from all the others?
4) Peaks happen...and then sometimes they happen again. Any reason to believe that yet another peak oil is any more significant than the at least 4 others claimed in this century? You got an inside connection to Hubbert's ghost telling you how many more we've got nowadays?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 06:00:11

Well... quite a lot of analysts are now betting mainly on US LTO to increase global supply. OPEC talks about 0.89 MMbbls/d for 2018 (including NGL), eia talks about a 0.7 MMbbls/d incrase (only crude oil) while IEA advanced a staggering figure of 1.4 MMbbls/d. IEA also forcast US LTO to reach 9 MMbbls/d in 2025.

The longer term supply increase switched from the conventional reservoirs of Irak and deep offshore promises that were the future ten years ago to the unconventional reservoirs of LTO, which are now the future. Well, they are certainly the trend now... But they could deceive if they really peak in 2020. Or maybe the Argentina LTO trend will rise.

Who knows? The future is full of surprises... easier to look back to understand the present before forecasting impossible outcome.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:12:32

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


Pioneer didn't "basically" discover tight shale resources in the Permian.


????????

This is your third post quibbling over the word "discover".

I used the word "discover" because thats the term used in the oil biz when oil is produced in a test well.

Pioneer drilled the first wells that delineated the huge size of the tight shale resource in the Permian Basin. In the Oil biz, drilling a well and producing oil is necessary to prove the resourse is there. When oil is produced it is called a "discovery", i.e. the resource has been "discovered" The first oil or gas well drilled in a new field is called the "discovery well, " ie. a discovery well is the well that is drilled to reveal the actual presence of a petroleum-bearing reservoir. All subsequent wells are called development wells.

For instance in 2013 Pioneer tested horizontal drilling and fracking in the Permian. A report in the 2013 "Oil and Gas Journal" says:

According to Sheffield, the company will test 13 zones within the next 3 years. Sheffield noted that recoverable reserves were based solely on the Wolfcamp A, B, and D shelves and the Jo Mill formation. The potential is enormous, and "more reserves are yet to be discovered," Sheffield said.

2013 OGJ: wolfcamp-shale-graduates-to-world-class-play

You are mostly a logical and reasonable poster, but three times around with you trying to explain to you what the word "discover" means in the oil biz is just silly. I can understand that you never worked in the Oil biz, and you may not know what various terms like "discover" mean in the Oil biz, but at some point after I explain it to you three times you should be smart enough to acknowledge that the word "discover" has a specific meaning in the Oil biz. It doesn't mean knowing oil is down there, as you seem to believe---it means drilling and producing the oil, as Pioneer did in the Permian. I hope you'll stop everyone's time wasting time endlessly quibbling about the word "discover"---since all you are accomplishing is to show that you don't know the meaning of the word "discover" in the Oil biz.

OK---I hope thats the end of your silly quibbling over the word "discover" . AND I hope we can go back to discussing the actual topic in this thread now.

Sheesh!

Get it now?

Cheers!

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:31:01

I used the word "discover" because thats the term used in the oil biz when oil is produced in a test well.

Pioneer drilled the first wells that delineated the huge size of the tight shale resource in the Permian Basin. In the Oil biz, drilling a well and producing oil is necessary to prove the resourse is there. When oil is produced it is called a "discovery", i.e. the resource has been "discovered" The first oil or gas well drilled in a new field is called the "discovery well, " ie. a discovery well is the well that is drilled to reveal the actual presence of a petroleum-bearing reservoir. All subsequent wells are called development wells.


Oil just has to be "found" which can be through evidence in cores, cuttings, mud logs, wireline logs, drill stem tests or a mix of all. The point that was being made I believe is that oil was known to exist in the shaley and tight sandy/carbonate sections in the Permian basin for decades prior to the recent land rush. It had even produced at low rates in vertical wells but a clear path to an economic outcome was not realized until a few years ago. All that Pioneer did was amass a good land position and take advantage of new technology and cheaper costs which made the play quite economic.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:42:55

Hi AdamB,

Conventional oil is not well defined. Many major institutions (OPEC, EIA, and IEA) do break oil output into different categories such as heavy or extra heavy oil (API gravity <10) or tight oil. If we exclude extra heavy and tight oil from World C+C output there has been very little growth in output since 2005 (about 300 kb/d), perhaps World C+C output will continue to increase forever, but my expectation is that we will see a peak in the 12 month average output between 2025 and 2030. An earlier peak may coincide with higher output (maybe 87 Mb/d of C+C) and a later peak might be due to a lower peak output (maybe 84 Mb/d). Clearly any such guess could be wrong due to technological breakthroughs. Eventually depleting resources will trump technology, when this occurs is unknown.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 17:42:06

dcoyne78 wrote:..... perhaps World C+C output will continue to increase forever, but my expectation is that we will see a peak in the 12 month average output between 2025 and 2030.


Could well be.

I think it will happen 5-10 years earlier then you, but then I'm assuming there will be trouble soon at one or more of the remaining supergiant conventional oil fields that have been producing for decades. If Ghawar, for example, were to see rapid production declines in the next few years similar to what happened to the Mexican Cantarell supergiant field which started declining at ca. 14%-36% per year after 2006, several million bbls of oil production could quickly vanish.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:51:36

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.


Pioneer didn't "basically" discover tight shale resources in the Permian.


????????

This is your third post quibbling over the word "discover".


I wouldn't need to quibble if you understood what it means.

Plantagenet wrote:I used the word "discover" because thats the term used in the oil biz when oil is produced in a test well.


Cool. So the Wolfcamp and Spraberry, the formations from which Pioneer gets most of their production, was discovered decades earlier, by someone else.

Plantagenet wrote:Pioneer drilled the first wells that delineated the huge size of the tight shale resource in the Permian Basin. In the Oil biz, drilling a well and producing oil is necessary to prove the resourse is there. When oil is produced it is called a "discovery", i.e. the resource has been "discovered" The first oil or gas well drilled in a new field is called the "discovery well, " ie. a discovery well is the well that is drilled to reveal the actual presence of a petroleum-bearing reservoir. All subsequent wells are called development wells.

For instance in 2013 Pioneer tested horizontal drilling and fracking in the Permian. A report in the 2013 "Oil and Gas Journal" says:

According to Sheffield, the company will test 13 zones within the next 3 years. Sheffield noted that recoverable reserves were based solely on the Wolfcamp A, B, and D shelves and the Jo Mill formation. The potential is enormous, and "more reserves are yet to be discovered," Sheffield said.


So Pioneer has sure drilled some development wells! Feel free to use any well information service you'd like to find the companies that drilled and produced (and discovered) oil from the spraberry and Wolfcamp.

Plantagenet wrote:You are mostly a logical and reasonable poster, but three times around with you trying to explain to you what the word "discover" means in the oil biz is just silly.


Words have meaning. I know exactly what an oil field discovery is. Notice in your definition it doesn't say anything about "well but if you use an oil based mud system when drilling the formation someone else discovered 50 years ago, you get to pretend you just rediscovered the formation!"

Plantagenet wrote:
I can understand that you never worked in the Oil biz, and you may not know what various terms like "discover" mean in the Oil biz, but at some point after I explain it to you three times you should be smart enough to acknowledge that the word "discover" has a specific meaning in the Oil biz. It doesn't mean knowing oil is down there, as you seem to believe---it means drilling and producing the oil, as Pioneer did in the Permian. I hope you'll stop everyone's time wasting time endlessly quibbling about the word "discover"---since all you are accomplishing is to show that you don't know the meaning of the word "discover" in the Oil biz.


Use the word right, and I won't quibble. If you don't have IHS Enerdeq or DI Desktop, find a friend who does and have them look it up for you. How about just a reference showing that Pioneer didn't discover the wolfcamp back in the 50's like I've already mentioned?

The Wolfcamp Formation (Wolfcampian-Leonardian) exists across the entire Midland
Basin and was first drilled as a vertical oil play in the 1950's.


This isn't hard plant. Google is your friend, and it certainly doesn't require experience in the industry to do this amazing thing called READING to figure it out.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:04:33

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I used the word "discover" because thats the term used in the oil biz when oil is produced in a test well.


...the Wolfcamp and Spraberry, the formations from which Pioneer gets most of their production, was discovered decades earlier, by someone else.


Of course. But identifying or naming or even mapping a formation doesn't mean it will produce oil.

Thats why a petroleum resource is only considered to have been discovered when the target zone or a formation is drilled and oil is successfully produced in commercial quantities from the discovery well.

OK---thats four times I've explained it to you.

I think even Pstarr at his most stoned would understand this concept after four cycles of explanation. But for some reason you are unable to grasp this simple concept.

So---after four repetitions---do you get it now?

Cheers!

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:13:24

dcoyne78 wrote:Hi AdamB,

Conventional oil is not well defined.


At least in part because people keep wanting to define oil by whether or not it was drilled one way or another, or requires a jackup rather than a land rig, or a whole bunch of things having nothing to do with the oil itself.

dcoyne78 wrote:Many major institutions (OPEC, EIA, and IEA) do break oil output into different categories such as heavy or extra heavy oil (API gravity <10) or tight oil.


Everyone understands a difference in oil density, or a difference in the permeability of a particular formation that oil comes from. But these things don't make an oil conventional or not, just different in density, or from a different permeability rock.

dcoyne78 wrote: If we exclude extra heavy and tight oil from World C+C output there has been very little growth in output since 2005 (about 300 kb/d), perhaps World C+C output will continue to increase forever, but my expectation is that we will see a peak in the 12 month average output between 2025 and 2030.


If we divide all oil production by 2 since 2005, we can create a peak in oil in 2005. Conditionals being wildly useful to get numbers to say whatever we want.

dcoyne78 wrote: An earlier peak may coincide with higher output (maybe 87 Mb/d of C+C) and a later peak might be due to a lower peak output (maybe 84 Mb/d). Clearly any such guess could be wrong due to technological breakthroughs. Eventually depleting resources will trump technology, when this occurs is unknown.


How about this for an idea? Why don't we start with an estimate of total global endowment (resource in place) and work backwards from there? Knowing the absolutely maximum, and knowing that the USGS and EIA both recognize that all of an in-place resource can be conceivably recovered (if you ignore cost), then the real answer we are looking for is..how much oil...for how much cost?

Peakers never present this kind of information, for some reason. Perhaps because it reveals the price/supply relationship that so recently demonstrated in the US why bell shaped curves just don't make the cut any more?

Here is an IEA example of just this concept.

Image
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:18:44

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I used the word "discover" because thats the term used in the oil biz when oil is produced in a test well.


...the Wolfcamp and Spraberry, the formations from which Pioneer gets most of their production, was discovered decades earlier, by someone else.


Of course. But identifying or naming or even mapping a formation doesn't mean it will produce oil.


Do try and keep up. I have previously referenced production of said oil. In the 50's. Would you like me to look up the approximate number of hundreds of thousands of barrels PRODUCED for a given month way back then?

Emphasis mine, for those who didn't pay attention last time I mentioned that oil had been produced from those horizons decades before Pioneer was formed.

Plantagenet wrote:So---after four repetitions---do you get it now?

Cheers!


Of course I get it. And I will repeat the question you continue to avoid....are you just being silly like this to troll the forum for fun? Sort of like when you were pretending that the autonomous vehicle in las vegas was at fault for the accident on the first day rather than the idiot human driving the other vehicle?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:39:54

AdamB wrote:oil had been produced from those horizons decades before Pioneer was formed.


Of course. And almost all of those wells were abandoned because they weren't very productive. So, yes, oil had previously been "discovered" in a few places, but the oil resources were thought to be small, and the area was mostly pretty inactive.

Starting in the 1990s Pioneer went back into the Permian basin and began producing oil in that area using conventional drilling---then in 2011 Pioneer was, to my knowledge, the first company to start using horizontal drilling and fracking in the Permian Basin. Pioneer had previously been successful with horizontal drilling and fracking in the Eagle Ford formation, so they took the same technology and applied it to the TOS in the Permian Basin. It worked spectacularly well, and in just a few years they were able to discover and delineate a HUGE new petroleum resource.

Thats why the 2013 Oil and Gas Journal article I linked to above refers to the discovery of "world class" oil reserves in the Permian basin.

Before Pioneer drilled their wells and showed you could produce significant amounts of oil from tight oil shales across the Permian basin, the oil resource was considered to be much smaller and more restricted.

The total size of the oil reserves in the Permian tight oil shales still isn't precisely defined, but based on data collected since Pioneer's pioneering application of horizontal wells and fracking, estimates range from 60 billion barrels up to 170 BILLION barrels of oil in the Permian section---. Either way, that's the largest new oil discovery in decades.

Get it now?

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
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