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Bitcoin & crypto?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 19:08:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
careinke wrote:Who is going to send those 1099's? It's a decentralized currency, it's not run like debt based fiat currency, no one is "in Charge." Reporting to the IRS is your responsibility not some bank.

You can do the same thing with cash, gold etc. Talking about government control of blockchain makes very little sense.

There are regulations forcing (legitimate) gold/coin dealers to send 1099's for anything over (as I recall) a $600 transaction in gold. The government wants its pound of flesh for capital gains -- and they intend to get it.

If you are assuming that the government will never shut down what will become illegal exchanges once bitcoin gets big enough (if it can't be tracked somehow) -- good luck with that plan. There has already been some action on that front in China, and there's concerns about more.


Well they were not able to stop wiki leaks.

http://time.com/money/4983676/bitcoin-investment-return-julian-assange-wikileaks/

My deepest thanks to the US government, Senator McCain and Senator Lieberman for pushing Visa, MasterCard, Payal, AmEx, Mooneybookers, et al, into erecting an illegal banking blockade against @WikiLeaks starting in 2010. It caused us to invest in Bitcoin -- with > 50000% return.


It's too late to stop cryptocurrency, the cat is out of the bag, thanks to a bunch of libertarians and anarchists who took action after the 2008 crash.

Blockchain will make most middle men (bankers, Brokers, contract lawyers, title companies and eventually most government services) obsolete.

Yes the government can shut down exchanges in their own country, but it changes nothing, crypto will still be there and used. Someone will be around to sell me Bitcoin on the street corner.

I like Bitcoin because there are only 21 million of them and there can never be more than 21 million. Think about it, even though the price is only ~$5,700 today, if every US millionare wanted just two bitcoin, it could not be done. There are not enough bitcoin in existence and never will be. Now add all the other millionaires in the world....

There are other cryptocoins out there. I own Bitcoin, Etherium, and Litecoin right now. Bitcoin is the gold standard, but other coins have other use cases making better for things like trustless commerce, data storage etc.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 19:31:00

AirlinePilot wrote:I bought 2 bitcoins when they were around 1900 $. Sold them yesterday :) One of the better investments Ive made in a while.


You cashed out all of it?

As you know this thing is very volatile. I'm just putting in money I can afford lose, sort of like going to a casino. So far my cost basis is around $600 per bitcoin. Of course that is rising, as I buy more. Dollar cost averaging with money you can afford to loose seems to be the best strategy right now. At least for me.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 00:37:52

yup....prob going to use some of it to buy a bunch of litecoin now. Imho right now this is like gambling, but i may just buy another BC and let it ride.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 12:24:36

Somehow in my personal studies of Bitcoin, I came across Reddit. It is very useful, with lots of informative people sharing information. The /r/bitcoin forums have lots of up to the minute info. Similar to this site. The "newcomers please read" section is particularly useful for those new to crypto. Here is the link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6jlop4/rbitcoin_faq_newcomers_please_read/

I have taken the liberty of copying the "key properties of Bitcoin" section, and quoting it below. Unfortunately the links don't work in my copy, but they do on the site. Still, if you don't follow links, the quote below will give you the basic attributes of Bitcoin being used as a currency.

Key properties of bitcoin

Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.

Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.

Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.

Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works.

Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.

Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.

Low fee - Transactions fees can vary between a few cents and a few dollars depending on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate the fee automatically but you can view current fees here.

Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.

Trustless - Bitcoin solved the Byzantine's Generals Problem which means nobody needs to trust anybody for it to work.

Pseudonymous - No need to expose personal information when purchasing with cash or transacting.

Secure - Encrypted cryptographically and can’t be brute forced or confiscated with proper key management such as hardware wallets.

Programmable - Individual units of bitcoin can be programmed to transfer based on certain criteria being met

Nearly instant - From a few seconds to a few minutes depending on need for confirmations. After a few confirmations transactions are irreversible.

Peer-to-peer - No intermediaries with a cut, no need for trusted third parties.

Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply remembering a string of words for wallet recovery.

Scalable - Each bitcoin is divisible down to 8 decimals allowing it to grow in value while still accommodating micro-transactions.

Designed Money - Bitcoin was created to fit all the fundamental properties of money better than gold or fiat

Some excellent writing on Bitcoin's value proposition and future can be found here. Bitcoin statistics can be found here, here and here. Developer resources can be found here and here. Peer-reviewed research papers can be found here. The number of times Bitcoin was declared dead by the media can be found here. Scaling resources here, and of course the whitepaper that started it all.


Hopefully, some of you will find the info interesting and maybe useful.

I'll leave you all with a bit of trivia. If Bitcoin were evenly distributed across the current human population, (impossible), we would each have .0028 Bitcoin. The smallest amount of bitcoin is .0000000001.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby yportne » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 14:11:05

Total values of different monies. Bitcoin value now higher. http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-o ... alization/
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Tue 17 Oct 2017, 14:18:45

yportne wrote:Total values of different monies. Bitcoin value now higher. http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-o ... alization/


Cool, thanks!

I guess the talk about a Bitcoin bubble is a little premature. 8)

P.S. the visual shows the value of BTC as 5 billion, of course that was in 2014. Today the value is over 119 Billion. Still, I like the graphic.....
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby GHung » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:02:07

Bitcoin surges $900 in 14 hours. What's going on?
http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/13/investi ... -stack-dom

Bitcoin is on an exceptionally wild ride.

The digital currency gained as much as $920 on Monday, before losing some ground to trade near $6,500. Over the past week it has bounced as high as $7,720 and as low as $5,620 -- a swing of nearly 30%.

Analysts said that volatility has spiked after plans to split Bitcoin (XBT) into two were dropped last week amid a backlash from owners and fans of the currency.

The proposed split, or "fork," would have allowed for faster transaction processing speeds.

"One of the main problems with Bitcoin is that it does not scale up properly as more and more users adopt it," said Daniele Bianchi, assistant professor of finance at Warwick Business School. ......
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:28:45

Automated trading combined with massive exposure through social media is obviously driving bitcoin & some of the emergent digital currencies to tulip bulb mania. The clock is ticking.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 18:07:30

SeaGypsy wrote:Automated trading combined with massive exposure through social media is obviously driving bitcoin & some of the emergent digital currencies to tulip bulb mania. The clock is ticking.

irrational exuberance. Bitcoin is the ultimate and final virtual fiat currency. Unhinged
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 11:38:53

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ncy-tether
Bitcoin hit a record high, shrugging off earlier losses posted after the $31 million theft of a cryptocurrency peer renewed concern about the security of digital coins.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:06:47

Check out USI tech. Millions are using this automated trading system. As more come on board this can only drive up crypto prices. Unprecedented, it's anybody's guess how this plays out.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:16:31

SeaGypsy wrote:Check out USI tech. Millions are using this automated trading system. As more come on board this can only drive up crypto prices. Unprecedented, it's anybody's guess how this plays out.

Yup. Nothing could ever possibly go wrong. :roll:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ncy-tether

Theft follows a string of hacks on cryptocurrency exchanges


Again, the blockchain looks like great technology. But that doesn't mean government will allow completely unregulated, untracked use of crypto as money and thus just stop all taxation. If that happened, organized governments couldn't exist.

To pretend like this is a non-issue would be like tulip investors pretending prices could never go down.

Now, I'd be all for protected (say FDIC or some such), tracked, taxed, blockchain documented crypto replacing dollars in time. Just don't expect that crypto never to have transactions taxed, and don't expect any crypto-currencies to endlessly grow in price to the sky.

Such investments are "fun", until they suddenly don't work.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:29:30

Yes, good points Outcast. Well according to this some financial experts are saying it's in a bubble right noe, with some outright calling cryptocurrencis a fraud.
Our own Carinke is much more gung-ho about them. Who to believe. ?
And yes, one Governments feel they need to reign them in some for taxation purposes. Can they? Given how they function as a distributed network without need of any central intermediary
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/finance ... t-now.html
Last edited by onlooker on Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:37:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:37:05

onlooker wrote:Yes, good points Outcast. Well according to this some financial experts are saying it's in a bubble right noe, with some outright calling cryptocurrencis a fraud.
Our own Carinke is much more gung-ho about them. Who to believe. ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/finance ... t-now.html

I think this site works best when there is a meaningful, reasonably free exchange of productive ideas (pro and con) on such topics.

That way people can read, do their own research / due diligence, and make their own decisions (i.e. take their own chances).

When I make cautionary statements, they reflect my opinion, which includes reading credible sources like The Economist logically laying out why crypto is an inevitable bubble. It's nothing at all against the bulls - I honestly wish the thoughtful ones (who are much braver than I am) luck.

Each to their own. For my cautious lifestyle, the stock markets have more than sufficient risk in the short run (even for a long term investor who expects to eventually be rewarded to compensate), thank you very much.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:48:07

One thought on a possible way to "play" crypto from the long side, for those determined to do so.

During the big bull market in tech stocks in the 90's, I made a lot of money on companies like MSFT, INTC, indexes like the QQQ, etc. But I wasn't insane about it. Once the values became "scary" to me re how much was invested, I started taking half the money off the table each stock split -- or at a certain profit point in the QQQ, etc.

That money was banked and kept firmly AWAY from the stock markets. (Luckily in those days, decent short term interest rates were available as an easy, safe, alternative).

I felt I'd rather sleep at night and "lose" some potential profits, than become a paper multi-millionaire, only to watch it all crash and burn, in anguish, at some point.

Until there are mature, reliable, regulated futures markets with solid hedging mechanisms, etc. for crypto, one could engage in a "sell half occasionally" strategy. That way if this thing runs for years, you'd at least safely bank a significant amount of profits without risking losing it all when some big downdraft becomes "the big one".

Just one possible compromise-on-risk alternative from either a prudent successful investor with decades of experience, or a pathetic coward -- depending on how you look at it.

Good luck to all. The future is unpredictable, but frequently ends up rhyming with the past, in time.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 17:07:27

Little people are not the only ones perplexed with the prospects of Cryptocurrencies it seems and yet people it seems are beginning to realize they're here to stay
And now, none other than JPMorgan is "getting with it", because as the WSJ reports, despite Dimon's guarantee of a pink slip for any trader caught transaction in bitcoin, the bank is now looking at business opportunities in the planned bitcoin-futures market, which the CME has said it will launch by the end of the year. Specifically, J.P. Morgan is considering whether to provide its clients access to CME’s new bitcoin product through its futures-brokerage unit. That, the WSJ reports, means the bank’s customers could use it to trade bitcoin futures while J.P. Morgan collects fees for such services, seemingly in violation of its fiduciary duty considering its CEO just two months ago called the product a "fraud"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-2 ... utures-fee
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:32:34

onlooker wrote:Little people are not the only ones perplexed with the prospects of Cryptocurrencies it seems and yet people it seems are beginning to realize they're here to stay
And now, none other than JPMorgan is "getting with it", because as the WSJ reports, despite Dimon's guarantee of a pink slip for any trader caught transaction in bitcoin, the bank is now looking at business opportunities in the planned bitcoin-futures market, which the CME has said it will launch by the end of the year. Specifically, J.P. Morgan is considering whether to provide its clients access to CME’s new bitcoin product through its futures-brokerage unit. That, the WSJ reports, means the bank’s customers could use it to trade bitcoin futures while J.P. Morgan collects fees for such services, seemingly in violation of its fiduciary duty considering its CEO just two months ago called the product a "fraud"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-2 ... utures-fee

On the one hand, I presume the firing threat is Dimon didn't want traders risking the bank's own capital on bitcoin.

On the other hand, if there is indeed a regulated, legal, taxable bitcoin (or crypto, generally) futures market, then there is no reason the bank shouldn't let its clients trade in it.

However, they should make whether they recommend being long or short VERY CLEAR to everyone, if they don't want to rick ethical and publicity scandals.

Assuming a "normal" futures market, that presents traders the potentially very interesting (and dangerous) choice to be short.

This, like Amazon stock in the early days, is one I'd prefer to quietly watch from the sidelines.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 14:11:53

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-advisers

Wealth Managers Are Being Inundated With Calls About Bitcoin
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