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Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 21:37:43



Oil prices pulled back slightly following the release of the Baker Hughes rig count report, but geopolitical risk still remains, and with the assumption that OPEC will extend its production cut deal, oil bulls are very much alive and well. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Friday, November 10, 2017 Oil prices showed some weakness mid-week on news that U.S. oil production jumped, but benchmark prices firmed up on Thursday, putting WTI and Brent on track for their fifth consecutive weekly advance. Oil prices are closing in on the longest streak of weekly gains in more than a year. OPEC revises up expectations of U.S. shale supply. OPEC released its annual World Oil Outlook this week, in which the group dramatically upgraded its expectations for U.S. shale. OPEC sees U.S. shale output ballooning from 5.1



Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 06:43:28

After what has happened to the world oil market since 2014 this article is at best short sighted and at worst pure sophistry.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 07:16:05

Yes and no -- the oil futures curve is in the rare state of backwardation. That means that traders are counting on supply coming online to lower prices over the next year -- they are counting on US shale to increase production. It also means that currently the fundamentals are weighted on demand being greater than supply -- that means that inventories are falling. I feel we are at a crossroad with oil prices. Stay tuned.
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Re: Are Oil Markets Immune To US Shale?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 13:46:06

The complexity as I see it is the dominance of consumer competition for the oil supply how ever large or small it might be. And that's primarily a function of the global economic health. Right now lower oil prices pushed producers to bring on reserve capacity to increase cash flow. Thamt should be improving global economic vitality...eventually. At some point producers will generate enough cash flow to reduce production. When? No idea what that tipping point might be. Or natural depletion reduces production rates. No idea when that tipping point might be either. And, again, adding to the complexity is the lag times involved.
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