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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 21:00:23

pstarr wrote:equals or surpasses the carbon that was emitted when the petroleum and coal was burned. After all . . . coal and oil were also plants.


With all due respect, I follow the logic of your reasoning. That's not the problem. The math is your problem. The rate of CO2 input is many times more than the theoretical rate that plantlife can take it back up again. No amount of new plant growth will compensate, and by not compensating, temperatures go higher with all of the attendant impacts.

The best way to conceptualize things is to watch an old documentary called The Incredible Journey of Oil. If you want to prove you're a studious person, then take the time to watch it, as it ties AGW directly with peak-oil. It explains how climate and CO2 sequestration are inextricably linked. The climate at the time oil was formed was highly rich in CO2, just like what we have now. Vegetation essentially "terraformed" the CO2 out and converted it into oil deposits, rather serendipitously I might add, paving the way for land mammals (most oil is not dinosaurs but more ancient plant-life).

The big epiphany moment I had when watching this documentary is that they explained that by burning all the fossil fuels we are turning the clock BACK to the atmospheric conditions before complex life formed. And the net result of doing that will be to KILL OFF all that complex life and leaving us again with nothing but ancient algae and such. The planet ends up where it began, as a primordial soup.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 22:40:24

Thanks for the thoughtful discussion, T, dis and asg.

Ultimately, of course, there are limits to how hot the planet can get. We will not get hotter than the sun, till that body expands to engulf us in a billion plus years. Short of that, we don't really know for sure what the limits are. We have theories and models, but reality often...surprises.

Ultimately, the full consequences of our actions today will not completely manifest themselves till long after we're gone. So those who want to tell whatever comforting stories to themselves that lets them sleep at night are of course free to do so. :) :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 23:04:03

dissident wrote:The heat trapping does have a logarithmic dependence on CO2. But that does not mean that adding more CO2 above 800 ppmv has no relevance. How says we will only add 100 ppmv above 800 ppmv when TSHTF. We could hit 6000 ppmv at some stage (like in the past). log_e(6000/800) = 2 or a doubling.

Even though I do not believe the run away Venus greenhouse effect is possible on this planet. The conditions found in the past when CO2 was 6000 ppmv are not relevant today since the Sun is shining brighter. It is also likely that we would reach 6000 ppmv much faster than in the past as well, which is a big deal.


Fair enough, but getting from here to 6000 ppmv is a very long road indeed. IMO, and I grant it is just an opinion, the emission rate once we pass 800 or even 1000 is liable to be very much slower than what we emit today for two basic reasons. One I think human population will peak before we get that far and already be in decline, perhaps even steep decline, by the time those levels are reached. Two, I am a historian by training so I see civilizations in terms of rise, plateau, and fall. This patter has repeated with every civilization we have ever identified for a plethora of reasons and IMO our current civilization is already off the plateau and in slow decline. I expect that slow decline to last up to several centuries by which time only isolated outposts will have high technology which means emissions will decline once civilization has declined past the point of sustainable extraction. Knowing Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Coal are buried in the ground and valuable energy sources is great so long as they are easily accessed. If all the Petroleum available in the 19th century had been shale LTO that technology could not access easily it wouldn't have mattered how many trillion barrels of potential was in the ground. As we go on in the future and our civilization continues to decline at some point we won't have the trained people to maintain and operate the fracking equipment needed to produce large quantities of shale oil even if the resource has not peaked out at that time. The education system in the USA/Canada now focuses on kids growing up in touch with their emotions which is great, but it discounts their ability to maintain or even use technology. Shop classes that teach even the most basic home owner level skills have been eliminated from almost all public school systems. As our culture dedicates it more and more to the abstract and focuses less and less on the practical the fundamental skill base is rapidly eroding.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 07:22:16

Meanwhile back at the ranch!!
November 10 and I have first snow of the year the day before hunting season opens which is ideal and called trackin- snow. :)
So the climate is pretty much on it's traditional path here at least.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 12:23:41

vtsnowedin wrote:Meanwhile back at the ranch!!
November 10 and I have first snow of the year the day before hunting season opens which is ideal and called trackin- snow. :)
So the climate is pretty much on it's traditional path here at least.


That's a rather ignorant statement.

https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/ ... than-usual

The short-term problem with New England’s foliage this year is due the recent warmth. From the Boston area to Burlington, Vermont, to Portland, Maine, the past three weeks have been the warmest stretch in that timeframe since record-keeping began in about 1872. This comes on the heels of one of the warmest Septembers on record as well. Over the past month, we’ve had temperatures close to 80 degrees at some point nearly every weekend.


http://vtclimate.org/vts-changing-climate/

http://climatechange.vermont.gov/sites/ ... TBetts.pdf

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 12:29:42

pstarr wrote:If we assume a geometric or exponential additional plant growth, it might be possible to model the next negative feedback statis?


Stop making those assumptions. Like I said. It took millions of years for photosynthesis to create those hydrocarbons as a natural process in response to atmospheric CO2. We've unlocked so much more of it that you simply can't expect plantlife to rush in like the Cavalry to compensate to the point where it makes burning fossil fuels carbon-neutral let alone carbon-negative. Then you add in the forest die-back due to increased forest-fires and invasive insects and we're FUBAR.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/8 ... on-dioxide

Of course, you'll just ignore this and keep fixating on this magical thinking while you simultaneously claim things like EVs are "magical thinking". Cognitive dissonance writ large.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 12:44:20

Yes, Asg, I rather think V, should have used the word weather rather than climate.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 15:16:20

GOP comes out for Geoengineering the climate to stop global warming

"Congressman Lamar Smith, who has relentlessly disputed the science behind climate change, now argues there may be ways to avoid the dangers of rising temperatures without overhauling America’s energy system.

As the climate continues to change, geoengineering could become a tool to curb resulting impacts,” the Texas Republican said in his prepared opening remarks for a Wednesday subcommittee hearing on geoengineering, a blanket term for various technological means of deliberately altering the climate to offset the risks of global warming.

Instead of forcing unworkable and costly government mandates on the American people, we should look to technology and innovation to lead the way to address climate change,” he added.

gop-embraces-geoengineering-

Cheers!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 16:00:57

Plantagenet wrote:
Instead of forcing unworkable and costly government mandates on the American people, we should look to technology and innovation to lead the way to address climate change,” he added.



Cheers!

Or they could just raise the gas and diesel tax by a dollar a gallon and raise 150 to 200 billion a year depending on how much people cut back their use. You could rebate to poor people $600 a year through refundable tax credits to keep it from being regressive. That certainly can be done and would reduce carbon output and release of waste heat far better then any of these geo engineering schemes ever will.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 16:42:53

Nice points, vt.

New GOP motto? : "Geo-Engineering....What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" :lol: :lol:

There are some ironies in a party whose deep belief has been that government should not get involved in planning the economy or micromanaging business is now that party that is sure there will be no negative consequences to doing the same with the far more complex and vital global eco-system... :cry: :| :badgrin: [smilie=eusa_think.gif]
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 16:52:28

vtsnowedin wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Instead of forcing unworkable and costly government mandates on the American people, we should look to technology and innovation to lead the way to address climate change,” he added.



Cheers!

Or they could just raise the gas and diesel tax by a dollar a gallon and raise 150 to 200 billion a year depending on how much people cut back their use. You could rebate to poor people $600 a year through refundable tax credits to keep it from being regressive. That certainly can be done and would reduce carbon output and release of waste heat far better then any of these geo engineering schemes ever will.


Yup.

Thats basically the GOP carbon tax plan that was put out about a year ago by the party elders.

But we will also probably need some kind of geoengineering fix to try to take CO2 out of the atmosphere to mitigate the warming and reduce the climate chaos.

Of course, it really doesn't matter that the GOP is slowly moving toward supporting a carbon tax and geoengineering, because in a year we'll be back with a D congress whose main issues will be trying to impeach trump. :lol:

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Fri 10 Nov 2017, 16:55:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 16:55:05

Sorry to say while well intentioned V“s scheme would not stand a chance of working. The poor would just spend that money. And our Capitalism system would keep churning out economic activity and consequently emissions
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 17:09:58

onlooker wrote:Sorry to say while well intentioned V“s scheme would not stand a chance of working. The poor would just spend that money. And our Capitalism system would keep churning out economic activity and consequently emissions

The poor that have to commute to work by car would use the credit to pay the gas tax. Those that avoided using fuel by car pooling or buying an electric car or whatever means would have the money to spend which incentivizes those efforts. Not all spending or economic activity has the same carbon foot print and single occupant commuting is won of the worst.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 17:36:00

And GW is already costing us plenty, and will cost ever more pretty much every year:



Climate Change Costs a Lot More Than We Recognize


Most estimates ignore the sociopolitical repercussions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -recognize
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 17:56:11

Plantagenet wrote:
...........
Of course, it really doesn't matter that the GOP is slowly moving toward supporting a carbon tax and geoengineering, because in a year we'll be back with a D congress whose main issues will be trying to impeach trump. :lol:

Cheers!


Sounds about right. Get rid of Trump and give a carbon dividend to folks like me with low carbon footprints.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 18:45:27

GHung wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
...........
Of course, it really doesn't matter that the GOP is slowly moving toward supporting a carbon tax and geoengineering, because in a year we'll be back with a D congress whose main issues will be trying to impeach trump. :lol:

Cheers!


Sounds about right. Get rid of Trump and give a carbon dividend to folks like me with low carbon footprints.


If eight years of Obama and two years of that with D majority in both houses of Congress didn't do squat for carbon tax and dividend what possible reason do you have to believe dragging President Trump out of office will change anything?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 19:15:57

Subjectivist wrote:
GHung wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
...........
Of course, it really doesn't matter that the GOP is slowly moving toward supporting a carbon tax and geoengineering, because in a year we'll be back with a D congress whose main issues will be trying to impeach trump. :lol:

Cheers!


Sounds about right. Get rid of Trump and give a carbon dividend to folks like me with low carbon footprints.


If eight years of Obama and two years of that with D majority in both houses of Congress didn't do squat for carbon tax and dividend what possible reason do you have to believe dragging President Trump out of office will change anything?


Because there's some support among republicans, a group of prominent former republican legislators has recommended it, and the republicans wouldn't give Obama any meaningful victories, no matter the issue.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 22:26:39

Subjectivist wrote:If eight years of Obama and two years of that with D majority in both houses of Congress didn't do squat for carbon tax and dividend what possible reason do you have to believe dragging President Trump out of office will change anything?


Here's a refresher for you on how that went down:

"Party of no."

BTW, what little Obama did accomplish (like the regulations on coalfired power plants) is already being undone by Trump anyway.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 00:54:26

Just a reminder that there was plenty of cash around that could have been used in the last couple decades to both start to adapt and to rapidly convert to non-fossil-death-fuel based society.

The costs of war are 5.6 trillion thru 2018. (This of course is just costs for the USA. The brown folk getting bombed have their own costs.)

http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/file ... NAL%20.pdf

And you can add to that however many trillions ended up getting thrown at the 'too big to fail' mega banksters as a reward for bringing the world to the brink of total economic collapse. Both parties, of course, are implicated in both of these realms of obscene waste and carnage.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 00:59:25

dohboi wrote:Just a reminder that there was plenty of cash around that could have been used in the last couple decades to both start to adapt and to rapidly convert to non-fossil-death-fuel based society.

The costs of war are 5.6 trillion thru 2018. (This of course is just costs for the USA. The brown folk getting bombed have their own costs.)

http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/file ... NAL%20.pdf

And you can add to that however many trillions ended up getting thrown at the 'too big to fail' mega banksters as a reward for bringing the world to the brink of total economic collapse. Both parties, of course, are implicated in both of these realms of obscene waste and carnage.


Yup. You are 100% right.

And building new carbon-free energy infrastructure in the US would produce jobs and economic growth.

But both the Ds and Rs would rather go to war and waste the money on blowing people up. Its sad, really.
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