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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 03:04:05

dohboi wrote:"living a Mad Max nightmare because people can't be bothered to change their habits today is grotesque."


Its basically human nature.

Very few people are willing to make even small sacrifices now in hopes that their future will be better.

Heck....a large percentage of people don't even have enough foresight to buy insurance in case they get sick, or to save now for their own retirement decades later.

Nope---the only realistic way to restrict FF use and decrease global CO2 and CH4 emissions is through some kind of governmental action, like a UN climate treaty that mandates CO2 emission reductions and forces people to reduce their use of FF.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 16:22:48

"Very few people are willing to make even small sacrifices now in hopes that their future will be better."

Did I just hear a pot calling a kettle?? :-D :-D :-D
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 09:16:39

dohboi wrote:"Very few people are willing to make even small sacrifices now in hopes that their future will be better."

Did I just hear a pot calling a kettle?? :-D :-D :-D


No doubt---but at least I don't lie about it or pretend it isn't true.

But I don't think you're exactly off the grid and growing all your own food and never using electricity or riding in a car or flying in an airplane yourself, but nonetheless you're pretending you aren't part of the problem

The fact is that EVERY SINGLE PERSON living in western countries like the USA or Canada or the U.K. Is using a disproportionate amount of the world's resources and emitting unsustainable amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Like other uncomfortable facts, people can't accept this truth. They want to pretend they aren't the problem when actually EVERYONE in western countries is emitting too much CO2

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 01:19:26

Yes, P.

Someone is either absolutely and completely 100% pure or they are the devil's very spawn.

Thanks for making clear to all of us the absolutely white and black, all or nothing nature of your thinking.

Now it is all there clear to see.

We all have our own forms of rationalizations.

I guess I hoped that yours was at least a tiny bit more sophisticated that that of the vast unwashed.

Well, keep working on it. That is our real labor in these times, afterall: coming up with more and more elaborate rationalizations for our indeffensible behaviors....you have a bit further to go, my friend!! :-D :-D
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 03:16:16

dohboi wrote:That is our real labor in these times, afterall: coming up with more and more elaborate rationalizations for our indeffensible behaviors....you have a bit further to go, my friend!!


As do you, Doh.

As do we all.

Cheers!

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 04:05:56

WTF? It's over. Plant, you have already admitted that. And you too Dohboi. You both know there is nothing that ANYONE can do to change this outcome.

So Dohboi, why should Plant stop seeing what he can before it's gone? It won't have the slightest impact.

It's like you don't want to give up the argument because you would have to admit it's beyond changing the outcome.

Go ahead, give me your best argument how anything anyone does, somehow makes worse what we already face. When it's over it's over.

It's the same as the nuclear argument, when you can destroy the world 10X over, what does a couple more nukes matter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9TShlMkQnc
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 10:29:49

Cid_Yama wrote:WTF? It's over. Plant, you have already admitted that. And you too Dohboi. You both know there is nothing that ANYONE can do to change this outcome.

So Dohboi, why should Plant stop seeing what he can before it's gone? It won't have the slightest impact.

It's like you don't want to give up the argument because you would have to admit it's beyond changing the outcome.

Go ahead, give me your best argument how anything anyone does, somehow makes worse what we already face. When it's over it's over.

It's the same as the nuclear argument, when you can destroy the world 10X over, what does a couple more nukes matter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9TShlMkQnc


Your message made me smile with reminiscence. Back in April 2005 right after I joined this website I had already scheduled a vacation with my spouse to visit Phoenix, AZ via air travel. I brought up the idea of cancelling the flight and of all people Montequest advised against it because basically it is far too late to change course so other than making preparations you should make the best of the good times before you are left with the bad times. Gives you something to think back on pleasantly in your end of life moments. If you really have your life flash before your minds eye at the last moment who wants to only remember work and struggle?

I had a serious health scare last year and am still not fully recovered, but I have returned to trying to make the best of every day I get.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 12:20:55

We can always make things worse, which is of course what we have been doing and continue to do.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 12:39:49

Cid_Yama wrote:WTF? It's over. Plant, you have already admitted that. And you too Dohboi. You both know there is nothing that ANYONE can do to change this outcome.


Cid is right again.

I used to think Cid was pretty far out there, but really he was just ahead of us all. Once again Cid is right, this time with his rational approach to thinking about the coming climate apocalypse.

Tanada wrote: Back in April 2005 right after I joined this website I had already scheduled a vacation with my spouse to visit Phoenix, AZ via air travel. I brought up the idea of cancelling the flight and of all people Montequest advised against it because basically it is far too late to change course so other than making preparations you should make the best of the good times before you are left with the bad times. Gives you something to think back on pleasantly in your end of life moments. If you really have your life flash before your minds eye at the last moment who wants to only remember work and struggle?

I had a serious health scare last year and am still not fully recovered, but I have returned to trying to make the best of every day I get.


Thank you Tanada for sharing this interesting Montequest story and your personal reflections on it.

Eight years ago I also used to think Montequest was pretty far out there, but today I very much wish he was still posting his ideas here. It seems we're all winding up at more or less the same dystopian viewpoint now.

I hope your health issues continue to improve. Have a great day!

As for me, I'm going to continue my "end of the world" tour as time, money and health permit. Sea level rise is going to wipe out the coastal cities, monster hurricanes will make more small islands uninhabitable, heat waves will cause die offs in polluted cities like New Delhi, and climate change will create more wars and millions more refugees.

This is the most amazingly horrible thing ever to happen to the human race---of course I want to see it happen.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 14:05:39

I'm going to continue my "end of the world" tour


Well, alright then. Keep us posted!! :-D :-D

Meanwhile, on another front of climate chaos:

There Will Soon Be Floods Of Climate Refugees: Will They Get Asylum?

https://www.fastcompany.com/40491897/th ... get-asylum

By 2050 hundreds of millions of people around the world–or, by some estimates, as many as 1 billion–could be displaced because of environmental problems, such as drought and flooding, that are made worse by climate change. Some people will move within countries. In the U.S., for example, an entire community living on an island in Southern Louisiana is being relocated to higher ground within the state. But many will be forced to cross borders.


Two points:

1) There are already 'floods of climate refugees,' they just seem to have fallen out of the news cycle recently, and as always, the causes of their flight are multiple, allowing many to miss the strong climate-change/endless-drought aspect of many of their stories.

2) We already have millions of refugees globally, highest ever, irrc. This before cc has really put on its sneakers. SLR could become abrupt in the next few decades, with recent reports that not only the West Antarctic but also key parts of the East on the move, and given our recently increased understanding of just how fast these things can go once they pass tipping points, given the instability of ice walls over 100 m. So just from slr, we could well start seeing hundreds of millions to billions of refugees in the coming decades. Let alone the rest of the climate chaos that this fall's cyclone season was just a teaser preview of.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 14:27:41

dohboi wrote:We can always make things worse, which is of course what we have been doing and continue to do.


I'm not really convinced you can prove that assertion. If all the feedbacks are kicking in now, then the only thing up for debate are the fine grained time questions. The anthropocene is here in full swing, and it is not going to be kind to its initiator.

Even if the feedbacks weren't online yet, as you note, we are doing what we do, turning stored solar energy into food and comfort. That will not change, not this year, not next decade; that process will run fully right into the period of collapse. It won't be the first to fail, it'll be the last, and it'll seal the deal on any feedback question.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 14:58:14

If we burn all the coal, it will release more carbon than every other source that is likely to be liberated through feedbacks. So, yes, we can and are making it worse. See particularly the last pie chart.

Image

(double click and choose 'view image' if you can't see the whole thing)

Also, while we know a lot more and with a lot more certainty than denialists will admit, the fact is that we don't and can't know everything. There may, if fact, be some unknown unknown damping ('negative') feedback that could kick in and save our worthless a$$e$, but perhaps only if we have not pushed the system too far. Do I think that likely? No. Is it absolutely impossible. It would be unscientific to answer yes to that, it seems to me.

But thinking that there is nothing we can do now to make it any worse so let's just keep on doing what we're doing, or even more so as we start checking off our bucket list...

Ultimately, though, it's kind of a moral question. If you have been kicking your grandma in the face with steel toed boots, then suddenly realize what you have been doing...even if you see that there is probably no way she will survive much longer, do you go back to kicking her in the face as hard if not harder than before?

Apparently some do seem to choose this course.

My 'high moral stand' is to kick at least somewhat less hard (since modern society pretty much prevents us from kicking all together). So to be clear, I don't think there is anything like any sort of 'path of virtue' here. Just more, or less, intense obscenely immoral behavior. I just (inconsistently) try to angle a bit more toward the 'less' side than some here, apparently. But few people that I know of even care to think about it, so thank for the frank discussion, at least. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 15:14:14

I think its pretty much a given that all reasonably accessible coal will be mined and burned.

Your moral equation is also flawed, in that we have someone else kicking grandma for us for the most part, hidden away from view and notice. We just turn the dial on comfort and enjoy. Grandma suffers, but not in a way that would ever cause us to notice enough to even moderate the behavior. Out of sight... That's just how people are.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 17:01:20

Oh, we're doing plenty of the kicking. To the tune of something like one atom bomb worth of heating to the planet that the average American contributes every decade or so.

But saying we have no (or little) moral responsibility for our actions just because others are doing it too or more is basically the morality of the gang rapist.

But then in the immortal words of the Doobie Brothers:

"...what a fool believes
He sees
No wise man has the power
To reason away..."

:-D :-D :-D
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 18:35:38

dohboi wrote:If we burn all the coal, it will release more carbon than every other source that is likely to be liberated through feedbacks. So, yes, we can and are making it worse.

Also, while we know a lot more and with a lot more certainty than denialists will admit, the fact is that we don't and can't know everything. There may, if fact, be some unknown unknown damping ('negative') feedback that could kick in and save our worthless a$$e$, but perhaps only if we have not pushed the system too far. Do I think that likely? No. Is it absolutely impossible. It would be unscientific to answer yes to that, it seems to me.

But thinking that there is nothing we can do now to make it any worse so let's just keep on doing what we're doing, or even more so as we start checking off our bucket list...

Ultimately, though, it's kind of a moral question. If you have been kicking your grandma in the face with steel toed boots, then suddenly realize what you have been doing...even if you see that there is probably no way she will survive much longer, do you go back to kicking her in the face as hard if not harder than before?

Apparently some do seem to choose this course.

My 'high moral stand' is to kick at least somewhat less hard (since modern society pretty much prevents us from kicking all together). So to be clear, I don't think there is anything like any sort of 'path of virtue' here. Just more, or less, intense obscenely immoral behavior. I just (inconsistently) try to angle a bit more toward the 'less' side than some here, apparently. But few people that I know of even care to think about it, so thank for the frank discussion, at least. :)


I pointed out gosh, several months ago I believe was the most recent occasion, that CO2 only has an effect up to the 800 ppmv level. After we hit that level the feedbacks that keep the planet from going over 23 C world average temperature kick in and the CO2 level becomes rather irrelevant. Somewhere between 350 and 500 ppmv we flip into the split climate with semi-tropical northern hemisphere and ice age southern hemisphere. After that the next step kicks in between 750 and 800 ppmv at which time the southern hemisphere also becomes semi-tropical. Once you pass 800 ppmv however any additional changes are very minor and more akin to the difference between two summer days in a row than a seasonal change in weather.

So give up all the illusions about control, adding 2.5 ppmv per years we will be well past the 500 ppmv level by or before 2050. If emissions continue to increase as they have been for the last three decades then that date of 500 ppmv will get closer to us than 2050 and you can forget all those fanatasy's people throw out about a green economy powered by renewables. The only renewables operating today that are cost competitive with fossil fuels are large hydroelectric projects like the Hoover and Three Gorges Dam's in Arizona and China respectively.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 18:57:12

The heat trapping does have a logarithmic dependence on CO2. But that does not mean that adding more CO2 above 800 ppmv has no relevance. How says we will only add 100 ppmv above 800 ppmv when TSHTF. We could hit 6000 ppmv at some stage (like in the past). log_e(6000/800) = 2 or a doubling.

Even though I do not believe the run away Venus greenhouse effect is possible on this planet. The conditions found in the past when CO2 was 6000 ppmv are not relevant today since the Sun is shining brighter. It is also likely that we would reach 6000 ppmv much faster than in the past as well, which is a big deal.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 19:40:13

PStarr, you are an idiot. Fossil fuels and plants are interrelated. When we burn fossil fuels we unlock carbon that was accumulated from photosynthesis. We do so at a rate several orders of magnitude faster than we can replenish. What that means is that plants alone, even if they covered every square foot of the globe, would not be able to suck the CO2 back out of the air fast enough to prevent runaway climate change. This is also why "corn liquor", as you call it, can't replace petroleum. This also ignores the fact that we've deforested and paved over so much of our old-growth forests (as you decry...since it was for 'suburbia'). So what we left with is a superficially greening of the planet (since even low-lying weeds and moss qualifies as "green") and simultaneous mass-die-off of biodiversity (including humans).

So I see no evidence of your claim that:

"catastrophic abrupt debilitating climate phase change is unlikely"

You are just continuing to bargain for less AGW so your chosen doomer favorite (peak oil) can do the dirty work first.

Give it up, man.

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-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 20:16:36

pstarr wrote:Nothing but insults Asgy. If you are not willing to read the articles and the original research then you need to butt out.


YOU reread it, especially the section "THE FLAWS IN THE ARGUMENT".

Sheesh.

And towards the end:

Anderegg also noted that while the science is still emerging, “on the whole, I think there's a general understanding that the impacts of climate change are materializing sooner and are more severe than they were a decade or two ago.”


There's not much room to put a positive spin on that.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 20:22:15

pstarr wrote:It is astounding what little press the Nature/NASA study gets.


No it isn't. It's because it's basically 'denialism-lite', which I know is attractive to you so you can maintain your permaculture granola crunching halo while you downplay AGW and fluff up peak-oil.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 Nov 2017, 20:37:11

pstarr wrote:Have a CV to back it up?


Do you?

Is it written on hemp paper?

pstarr wrote:An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries published a study last year titled "Greening of the Earth and its Drivers" in the journal Nature Climate Change showing significant greening of a quarter to one-half of the Earth's vegetated lands using data from the NASA-MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR satellite sensors of the past 33 years.
Means nothing to you? Why do you embarrass yourself Asgy?


Does that say anything about this reversing global warming and preventing mass extinction? Didn't think so.

Greening or no greening, it AIN'T ENOUGH.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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