Sys1 wrote:1) oil is getting too expensive (+100$), economy slows down, "experts" don't get why
2) central banks low back their rate because the focus is not yet on oil prices, but on the worry about this slowing economy
3) energy and food inflation kicks in + jobs cut while dow jones getting higher
4) oil is getting more expensive (we fall off the plateau, so even with lower demand, oil offer still collapses)
5) dow jones getting higher faster and faster (bubble tech and real estate) BUT central banks become afraid about energy and food inflation : riots, political problems...
6) central banks lift their rate to calm down oil prices
7) which trigger a new collapse of real estate, this time far worse than 2008. In a terminal hurry, investors shift to oil and gold...
8 ) Oil prices skyrocket.
9) Central banks don't know what to do. Game Over.
ROCKMAN wrote:OK, time once again to be my pissy self. Before we can "fall off" an undulating plateau we have to be on an UP...which we aren't. Yes, global oil production has become somewhat static to a slight decline lately. But that's been artificial and not natural.
But even that is insignificant compared to the DECADES LONG trend of INCREASING GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION. Am I the only one that pulls up production charts. There a variety out there and none show an UP:
Next problem I have: so when we do reach a prolonged UP of global oil production define what a "fall off" !looks like. That terms implies a relatively rapid decline. But quantity it: 10%/yr, 20%/yr, 30%/yr, more? Compare to the US during pre-shale days:
On an UP from 1968 to 1986. Then declined from 9 mm bopd to 5 mm bopd from 1986 to 2006: a 45% decline over 20 years. IOW significantly less the 10% per year. Does that qualify as "falling off"? I let everyone qualify it themselves. And do we expect global oil production to decline faster then what the US experienced? Slower? And why regardless of what you predict?
Pops wrote:Real oil prices have never been this high for this long, ever.
And they've never been this much above the trend without producing substantial amounts of new oil production.
All we've gotten this time is a stripper well make work project in the US, otherwise production in the rest of the world has been flat for 7 years.
Looks like a plateau to me...
Great charts at crudeoilpeak
http://crudeoilpeak.info/excluding-the- ... an-in-2005
.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
ROCKMAN wrote:T - Much thanks for that colorful chart...it proves my point. From 2005 to today global oil production has yet to reach the undulating plateau phase: it has consistently reached a new peak production for more then a decade. And while there have been dips in the rate it has not only recovered but increased. In the undulating plateau phase I would expect those peaks to hold around the same volume, wouldn't you?
In fact, even your dips in production since 2010 have shown progressively higher values. High peaks and higher lows over time do not define an undulating plateau IMHO.
Now that we've settled that do you want to predict when we'll reach the UP phase and how long we might hold there? After that we can discuss exactly what "falling off" the plateau looks like.
ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.
So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm rooting for buying 5 to 7 decades from shale fracking and natural gas
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
asg70 wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm rooting for buying 5 to 7 decades from shale fracking and natural gas
I don't think it will last that long, OS. It seems like it might last more like 5-7 years after which I see price pressures nipping at consumers' heels to the point where EV sales skyrocket.
ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.
So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.
ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.
So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.
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