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Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 11:31:16

The price is still hovering around $50, but is moving back down.


Not to save your ass.

The ETP Bozo Club founding circus clown is past the best before due date.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 11:54:34

AdamB wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
Sky rocketing gas prices or gas shortages would cause a deleveraging world wide. Will see how long the banksters can keep us in this sweet spot.


Another week, another inventory build:


When industry does glut, it does it GOOD. The disaster of 1986 stretched for more than a decade, so far no one has come up with a reason why this one won't be just as bad. It is already like a quarter of the way there. Seems unlikely to be as bad as the glut post WWII though, that one went on for more than 2 decades.


OMG. A glut? How shall we survive? Oil depletion strikes again!
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 15:45:06

It's obvious why the trolls are pounding on a key board for minimum wage, and not running a hedge fund.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 19:06:48

shortonoil wrote:It's obvious why the trolls are pounding on a key board for minimum wage, and not running a hedge fund.


Says the guy running a platoon of sock puppets to fend off questions on why you trust the math of someone who can't run a spreadsheet program.

The polite version of questioning the "those who can't use a spreadsheet" group.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 19:26:17

"This shock, will be electric and abrupt. Stress, fear, depression, despairs, and nightmares will be the order of the day — as people come to face the not-so-palatable facets of ‘Post Peak Oil'."

-Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari


:twisted: :twisted:
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 20:19:06

Very soon the House of Saud will require massive investment to maintain oil production. The House of Scam with the worthless JUNK currency need not bothering showing up. Guess what that will mean?

Scamerica will be shut out of middle east oil completely. It cannot afford new Saudi oil development or Venezuela oil.

Scamerica will have a near 0 Net Energy System.

Up for sale....Scamerica.

Soon BW and Adam will be in a prison work camp talkin to each other: certainly no later than 2020.
At least 6 Billion dumbshits will die in The Oil Apocalypse.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 21:16:14

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:"This shock, will be electric and abrupt. Stress, fear, depression, despairs, and nightmares will be the order of the day — as people come to face the not-so-palatable facets of ‘Post Peak Oil'."

-Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari
:twisted: :twisted:


Is that quote true, or did you make it up like you did the one from Yamani claiming that the oil age would end for lack of oil, when he said no such thing? Do you make up your own fake quotes, or get them from other peak oilers who know even less on this topic than you do?

And you might not have noticed, but a decade into "post peak oil" now, and pickup sales are GOOD, because real fuel prices resemble those from the early 1970's. So far here is your peak oil consequences to date...quite shocking indeed.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 21:18:20

StarvingLion wrote:Up for sale....Scamerica.


Sure. And money is worthless. Wonder why those folks on the corner keep holding up those signs asking for some, rather than a sandwich or booze or gold or something of "value". Huh.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 06:37:12

Next year will be terrible if the central banks stops printing money. Where is the money going to come to finance the governments deficits...how will the governments pay all unfunded liabilities...where will the money come to pump up the stock market...where will the money come to keep all asset bubbles from deflating...no more extending new loans...massive new amounts of NPL's on the banks balance sheets...bankruptcies...deflation...stock market crashes...governments declaring default on debt...it's going to be terrible.

...on the other hand...they can't keep the zombie economies alive forever.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 07:10:28

Banks are turning out record profits right now. You doomers should really do some research on the matter. In the meantime, I will enjoy some stock appreciation. Buy low, sell high.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 08:04:24

Tim Morgan responds with a quick note on China:
Right, China it is. The SEEDS system makes this pretty straightforward. The only delay right now is that I’m updating for the latest IMF forecasts, and catching up on a few corrections.

The numbers you cite are all in billion RMB. They are all ‘constant’, meaning they are at 2016 values, adjusted for inflation, so they are directly comparable with earlier and later years.

Debt has grown very much more rapidly than GDP. Since 2006, debt has increased by RMB 3.4 for each RMB 1.0 of GDP growth. A lot of this debt boosts current activity, but at the expense of the future. Underlying GDP takes out the “borrowing boost” – this is what, SEEDS says, output would have been, or would revert to, absent the borrowing effect.

The real economy further adjusts for ECoE – the trend Energy Cost of Energy.

For 2016, rates of growth were:

GDP: +6.7%
Underlying: +3.1%
Real economy: +2.4%
Real economy per capita (“prosperity”): +1.8%

You’re right about the real debt ratio. Please note, though, that debt of RMB 191tn is government + households + non-financial businesses. Inter-bank debt is additional to this – and in China is about RMB 64tn.

As for Cog's comment above, it reminds me of way too many financial advisers who always recommend last quarter's or last year's hot mutual fund and neither they nor their clients understand why the strategy doesn't work.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 08:28:20

As for Cog's Don Stewart's comment above, it reminds me of way too many financial ETP, ECoE and FEASTA advisers who always recommend last quarter's or last year's hot mutual fund models and neither they nor their clients religious adherents understand why the strategy doesn't work.
Last edited by marmico on Fri 13 Oct 2017, 08:38:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 08:31:07

Fast crash and renewables?
This is a little off the beaten path of 'fast crash' scenarios, but I think it bears some study and thinking:
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017- ... le-energy/

Brian Davey, of FEASTA, has read and reflected on Kris DeDecker's recent work on the impossibility of 100 percent wind and solar and the potential for interruptible electricity from wind and solar. (I recommended the same articles by DeDecker here, but I doubt anyone actually bothered to read them.) Davey pulls more elements, such as debt levels and the depletion of fossil energy resources, into his analysis.

If the smartest guys in the room suddenly figure out that increased leverage is at a dead end, that wind and solar cannot save the current industrial system and that we have to build a different system or else revert back to a much more primitive lifestyle, and that fossil fuels are not going to be available in the quality and quantity to finance grandiose schemes along with WWIII, then a fast financial crash is a credible scenario.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 09:18:37

Banks are turning out record profits right now.


Where are you getting your information? Loan origination is plunging, and they are all increasing their loan loss reserves. I think that people are getting so sick of the continual misinformation coming their way they are just starting to shut it all off.

Since 2006, debt has increased by RMB 3.4 for each RMB 1.0 of GDP growth. A lot of this debt boosts current activity, but at the expense of the future. Underlying GDP takes out the “borrowing boost”


Seed is a pretty good name for it. We are eating our seed corn at an exponentially increasing rate. Capital formation around the world is now less than zero, all that is being taken into considered is a huge pile of paper at ever higher evaluations. They are the same pieces of paper that were there 20 years ago, they were just renamed from mortgages, to CDS, to synthetic CDS. Next stop will be synthetic, synthetic CDS Light (or something similar).

We are even seeing this on the information front; information has become so distorted, and so twisted that it is nothing more than a huge pile of regurgitated garbage that has mutated into the Creature from the Black Lagoon. Its unintentional, and intentional perversion has left us totally incapable of making rational decisions. The world has so thoroughly cooked its books that only the very lucky are likely to get anywhere near the correct answer. We are facing the impact of resource depletion across every front from phosphates, to oil, to water to fish and are being left to react by using a pile of myths, and concocted data. The end of the oil age will most likely be insurmountable; our inability to respond effectively toward it will guarantee that outcome!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 09:30:31

You doomers are just too easy. You don't do the research and proclaim doom. I already knew banks were making profits because I own their stocks. LOL dumb doomers. But I will do the research for you since you are too lazy to do it yourself.

Read it and weep doomers:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/08/investi ... index.html

Five of the country's biggest banks are expected to rain down a combined $21 billion in profits this week.

The vast quarterly earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and PNC are likely to account for nearly half of the entire banking industry's profits.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 09:32:46

Low oil prices, low unemployment, record high corporate profits, record high DOW. Holy shit we must all be doomed. LOL
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 09:40:11

shortonoil wrote:...information has become so distorted, and so twisted that it is nothing more than a huge pile of regurgitated garbage that has mutated into the Creature from the Black Lagoon.


You've been doing your part to contribute to the disinformation.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 09:51:05

The same exponential trajectory seems to return everywhere. Sure, it looks sustainable and healthy to me. When then the central banks stops the money printing...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP


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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 10:00:33

Everything looks fine from mainstream business medias. Doesn't mean reality is fine. I suppose that North Korea medias claim their country is a communist paradise. So as a doomer, I don't give à f**** at your claims, Cog. Get à life.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 13 Oct 2017, 10:12:46

Things are starting to get really weird.

Fmr. Manager of DOD Aerospace Threat Program...less that two weeks after leaving the Pentagon, Luis Elizondo confirmed that UFOs are a real; they exist, and they have been officially documented.

As a result of his position managing the DOD program for almost a decade, Lue said “I learned that the phenomena is indeed real.”

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59de ... 92a8214874

I really don't know what to make of all this.
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