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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 21:36:15

A new Tropical tidbit tonight for TD-16 (Nate): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Great stuff!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:41:31

TD-16 (Nate) now projected to hit New Orleans -> Mobile area as Cat 1:

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 17:36:27

European model 2PM Sunday. Down around Biloxi...Pretty girls are dancing, in the sea...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=410igZAwwAU

and the storm will blow from off towards New Orleans...
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:18:36

Yeah, the models are all converging a high likelihood of a Louisiana landfall. The main question is how strong it will be. NHC is says it will be a category 1 at landfall, but, while they have been quite good recently on predicting path, they have pretty consistently under-predicted strength.

Of course, where exactly it lands could also make a big difference for NOLA!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 07:23:31

dohboi wrote:Yeah, the models are all converging a high likelihood of a Louisiana landfall. The main question is how strong it will be. NHC is says it will be a category 1 at landfall, but, while they have been quite good recently on predicting path, they have pretty consistently under-predicted strength.

Of course, where exactly it lands could also make a big difference for NOLA!


Exactly why rebuilding should have been limited to the French Quarter of NOLA where the city sits on ancient bedrock above sea level. Sadly the rest of the city has been sinking for many decades and is below sea level so rebuilding there in a hurricane zone was just futile.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 12:07:14

I have heard that 12 of their 120 pumps are out of commission as well. It may overwhelm the pumping capacity at least and New Orleans fills up fast! I think I'd be looking for a way out of there by now.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 14:43:40

You were right Revi—-it is going to hit New Orleans.

I wonder how much strength it will gain as it crosses the very warm gulf waters?

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 16:26:24

It is completely predictable that officials will say about this completely predictable upcoming disaster will be something like: "No one could have predicted this." :lol: :cry: :x :twisted:
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 17:10:11

Storm surge on Nate is likely to be a large factor, high and sudden. 11 feet is predicted, but expect higher in some places where the coasts funnel the water into tight spots.

The good thing about how fast it's moving is that it is not likely to hover off the coast or wander around, dumping endless rain.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 21:19:01

There you go predicting. Probably right, but hurricanes can do odd things. Don't be surprised if you are surprised.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 09:25:22

Looks like storm surge did indeed push water up into many buildings, so I'm not surprised that I'm not surprised :-D

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/1 ... ges_s.html

Meanwhile, we keep breaking records:

Nate makes nine Atlantic hurricanes in a row—unprecedented in modern era


On August 9th, deep in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Franklin reached 85mph winds before moving into Mexico. Although the storm dropped some heavy rains over the Mexican state of Veracruz, Franklin’s effects were relatively moderate, and it was soon forgotten.

But following Franklin’s formation two months ago, eight additional tropical systems have developed and been assigned names by the National Hurricane Center. And during this frenetic season, all of those systems have become hurricanes as well. That’s nine in a row, which is unprecedented in the modern hurricane era.

According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, nine consecutive named storms have not reached hurricane status since 1893. ..


https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/10 ... ne-status/
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 15:29:03

Here are some more precise numbers I found on surge:

Hurricane #Nate's peak surge was >6ft, coming almost exactly at high tide in Mississippi. Inundation of ~8ft.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 6656046080

So it sounds like they didn't get the full 11 feet, but enough to bring the sea into a lot of homes and businesses.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 15:48:59

Mixing a little economics with the environment Nate has shut in or off, much of the Gulf Coast Oil Production. But, probably just for a very short time, I would think. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ippi-river
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 16:03:17

Yeah, I saw that elsewhere, and I was wondering if this would cause much of stir in the markets or in gas prices. Others more knowledgeable on such matters, please do weigh in.

Meanwhile:

UN chief urges global solidarity, accelerated climate action after visit to hurricane-stricken Barbuda


Having seen first-hand the destruction wrought by the recent hurricanes in the Caribbean, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Saturday called for the full mobilization of the international community to support the people of the affected areas, while stressing the need to accelerate climate action.

I have just witnessed a level of devastation that I have never seen in my life,” Mr. Guterres told a press conference following a visit to storm-battered Barbuda.

“I have been in areas torn by conflict. In my own country, I have seen earthquakes, I've seen storms […] I have never seen such a high-level of devastation like the one that I witnessed in Barbuda,” he stated.

“This must make us think seriously,” added Mr. Guterres...

...The Secretary-General cited “a clear link” between the level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, including CO2, the temperature of the water and the intensity of the rainstorms and of the different hurricanes in the region and in other parts of the world.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 16:11:57

For whatever its worth at this stage, the UN chief highlighting the connection between GW and these monster storms should move the needle some for more potent actions taken by the world community.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 19:01:29

Good for him. Even if he is wrong it's about time some world leaders started taking this stuff seriously and talking openly about it.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 14:13:51

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 07:56:56

If you take the first letters of Harvey, Irma and Maria you get Him, then add Nate and Opelia and you get No. Is Gaia trying to tell us something? Even Mother Nature doesn't like our Dear Leader!

Him No!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 17:37:20

Nice one, rev.

Meanwhile:

#Ophelia now has 100 mph winds - the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.


https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... ifornia%2F

How many hurricane-related records does that make that we broke in the last few weeks??
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 05:04:29

It looks like Ophelia may affect Europe next week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... or-ireland
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