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10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Loki » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 23:18:13

careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 23:53:32

Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Loki » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 00:08:00

careinke wrote:
Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.

And fertilizing. Fish was a common fertilizer in Native American agriculture.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 00:52:34

Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:
Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.

And fertilizing. Fish was a common fertilizer in Native American agriculture.


I Fertigate now, and eventually it will be an automatic (no inputs from me) system. Still grains are only a transitional (Unless you want to grow them) crop, a holdover from the very thing that got us into this mess, agriculture. Lets face it, today's grains suck as nutritional food. Then there is the whole monoculture problem.

We worry about human pandemics due to overpopulation and superbugs created by overuse of medications. We should be very worried about that with our grain crops. Huge monocultured fields of grain is just a disaster waiting to happen. I'm sure a corn field would fit Monte's definition of overshoot (for the corn). Yet we keep rolling the dice.

I would personally like to see the population move towards a more varied sustainable diet with Nuts and other perennial crops providing the vast majority of our calories.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 02:20:15

Agree with all you say care, but I think even you slipped in a 'condition' accepting there would be a lot less people. IMHO sad but true, I agree with most of the ideas in your 'plan' to save the world, and think it's a shame that it seems to have some of my friends 'against' each other. Stepping back I think you're all talking about very similar opinions with definitions being the moot point.

On the one hand Monte seems to think us Permies are talking about saving the world 'as it is', and sees that as simply perpetuating the overshoot leading to an even more severe correction.

On the other hand his points can seem callous and lacking in any compassion, but he does post the facts as he sees them.

In the real world I agree with both camps, and see Permaculture as part of a transition plan to a 'potential' future albeit in a much smaller World. There are many other 'elements' to transition which can be sometimes seen as part of permaculture, but also lie firmly in the political arena. An acceptance that 'selfish' is not necessarily 'natural', and that working together is more important than competing all the time is one thing that you learn from Permaculture once you get going. IMHO this leads to the inevitable conclusion that a communal approach is the only way forward.

Monte has often said PO manifests itself as an economic crisis which is a view that I share. I've regularly stated that the main difference of opinion between cornies and doomers is cornies don't join the dots between physical resources and financial ones. My fear is that as history shows War tends to be the outcome and Permaculture doesn't really stop that!
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Thu 18 Dec 2014, 00:35:13

Quinny,

I think realistically, we will have at least a partial die off, because basically most of the world is ignorant. MY thome on saving the world through Permaculture is just an academic exercise where I feel I could design a system that makes the transition a lot easier, without a Die Off. The population would eventually decline through voluntary population control.

I haven't addressed population yet, I should probably add it to year two. The third ethic in Permaculture was originally:
SETTING LIMITS TO POPULATION AND CONSUMPTION: By governing our own needs , we can set resources aside to further the above principles (meaning the first two ethics, care of the Earth, and care of people)


I'm not sure, but I suspect it was changed to, Return the Surplus to the first two ethics, because the original third ethic was not PC.

As for as Monte, I have a LOT of respect and have learned much from him. I hope he does not consider me an enemy because we disagree on some points of the severity of future events. Although I think he smart enough to tone down his disparaging comments and still get his point across. But I think it is just his inner Shock Jock. 8)

I have do have hope. My two sons, nieces, nephews, and other friends have "Awakened" to the problems, and have started to take responsibility for themselves. They have come to me for advice at first, and are now branching out into things I have not done, like aquaponics, urban farming, rabbits,etc. Remarkably it is contagious, their friends see what they have done, and start their own projects. Food is traded, when its time to slaughter turkeys, everyone volunteers to help. They also support CSA's and are starting to eat less crap sold in the supermarket.

Permaculture is not a solo activity. What I am seeing is more and more people awakening. Will it be enough? Who knows? But the more of them I can get around me, the more secure I feel. A lot of governments are also taking Permaculture very seriously.

As far as preventing war, that was my old job. I can't personally influence that, so I don't worry about it, other than standard preps I have anyway. Sort of the same way I feel about meteor strikes, massive volcanoes and other disasters beyond my control.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 09 Apr 2015, 18:43:32

Very simply, when oil got to $120 a barrel it cut into real productivity, and forced the world’s most developed economies to shrink. At $147, it wreaked serious damage. ... the new normal will be cycles of bumping our heads against the supply ceiling, falling dazed to the floor, rising back to our knees, then finally standing, only to bump our heads against the ceiling once more. ... The true import of peak oil, therefore, may not be sustained high prices, but economic shrinkage.


8. Scaling down to fit substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
Just commenting on this long post directed at the effects of peak oil as described above as well as substituting for oil. Number 8 may miss the part about not just considerable time but with considerable economic pain. Well we are now 2015. So far the price of oil is reasonable. No major pain. I inquire then when abouts do folks think this pain will finally arrive in full force? Also, will we really be able to substitute for oil realistically speaking or is this just wishful thinking at this juncture?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 09 Apr 2015, 19:00:54

5 years ago I thought we'd have Mad Max conditions by now and that there was no use even thinking about my daughter's college education. Now she's almost 15 and gas is pretty cheap and I've got the best paying coder job of my life. I really don't see this changing overnight. I think it's more than likely that my daughter will manage to live out the rest of her childhood and college years before her traditional american dreams of upward mobility are prosperity are blunted. So in other words, probably another 5 years on this fracking kick before we have any sort of oil shock again.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Grifter » Sat 29 Aug 2015, 22:47:01

onlooker wrote:
8. Scaling down to fit substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
Just commenting on this long post directed at the effects of peak oil as described above as well as substituting for oil. Number 8 may miss the part about not just considerable time but with considerable economic pain. Well we are now 2015. So far the price of oil is reasonable. No major pain. I inquire then when abouts do folks think this pain will finally arrive in full force? Also, will we really be able to substitute for oil realistically speaking or is this just wishful thinking at this juncture?


If you lived in Syria, Afganistan, or most places in the middle east, you'd say the pain was in full force.......or a helluva lot of other places too.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 03:49:30

Pops wrote:Here are 10 facts about Peak Oil:

    Peak Oil
    1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction of which typically follows a bell-shaped curve, with maximum flow near the middle followed by terminal decline. The "peak" is the point in time of highest flow and supply availability, with shrinking supplies thereafter. "Peak Oil" does not mean no oil, it means less oil.

    Discoveries
    2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.

    Exploration Costs
    3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last.

    Energy Return On Energy Invested
    4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.

    Export Land Model
    5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.

    The Consequences of Cheap and Expensive Oil
    6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,

    7. Increasing oil prices can decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase and/or

    8. Increasing oil prices can reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.

    Scaling Time
    9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.

    Unreliable Information
    10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.

If you have a fact you think is more basic or an argument with one of these feel free to post.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 06:29:19

Thanks for bringing us back to basics.
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