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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 19:02:22

"...found the[m] to be a bunch of xenophobia and racists..."

As opposed to this place????!!! :lol: :lol: :P :P
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 00:41:03

https://www.populationmatters.org/docum ... _index.pdf

Sustainable global population according to this estimate ...... 4 billion
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 04:10:30

Kiwi,
Thanks. I disagree but can't absorb this right now. Embarking on a 1,000 mile 2 day drive in about 10 minutes. Will read latter.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 13:12:22

Wow! Drive safely!
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 13:36:34

[url][/url]
Newfie wrote:Kiwi,
Thanks. I disagree but can't absorb this right now. Embarking on a 1,000 mile 2 day drive in about 10 minutes. Will read latter.

It's a shame you could not do the trip by boat. So much more pleasant and comfortable :)
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 19:26:50

I did last year. Took three months!

Driving it's about 1,500 miles Philly to our cabin, plus a 7 hour ferry. We took the boat up the Hudson, Erie, St Lawrence and around the Northern Pennisulla, a longish route. A bunch more miles but a neat trip.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 19:38:41

kiwichick wrote:https://www.populationmatters.org/documents/overshoot_index.pdf

Sustainable global population according to this estimate ...... 4 billion


OK, I get where they are coming from. It's just a restatement of the Global Footprint.

There are a couple of issues with this.
First, I believe the GF people have stated that their calculation is conservative. That is things are worse than stated. Can't recall where I saw that.

Second, it assumes that everything is shared equally and that all resources are used to the maximum extent, neither of which is remotely true.

So this 4 billion is the theoretical maximim in a perfect world.

In a pragmatic or realistic world people will waste, resources will be unused, resources will be depleted. In a real world much ecological damage is being done already and more will be done before we are through decreasing the carrying capacity. It also is based on yesterday's world. Before the effects of climates change have been in or pirated. I'll stick with my rough figures as being practical.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 03:32:06

@ newfie......totally agree .....unless we wake up in the very near future 4 billion looks optimistic
and I don't see change happening anywhere near fast enough
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 05:14:19

Kiwi,

And it is all so obvious. At least to us.

I often feel like we are living in the openings by scenes of some old time B grade sci-fi movie, where the professor discovers the danger and no one will listen.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 11:25:15

Newf, me too!

Meanwhile:

Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered


"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today. Almost all of the unanticipated increase comes from Africa."

Fertility rates are not dropping as expected in Africa, while death rates have fallen. The result is that the vast majority of population growth will be in the Africa, mostly in the some of the poorest countries in the world. UN estimates now put the Africa population at between 3-6 billion in 2100 depending on growth rates - previously they had assumed 2 billion. Of course, the probability of extensive social collapse and widespread famine before we get there is extremely high. With an extremely young population, a lot of violence can be expected.

North Africa seems to have lowered its population growth rate to 2%ish, and South Africa is now below 2%. In between though, very high growth rates - many in the specific areas that climate change will negatively affect. A good example - Nigeria already has 186 million people (under 100million 20 years ago), and with a 2.6% growth rate will double every 28 years - so nearly 400 million by the mid 2040's. Uganda's population is growing at over 3% a year (doubles every two decades, now at 40 million)

In 40% of the world's nations, the birth rate is already at or below replacement level (2.1) while in Africa it is still at 4.7.


Also a big issue for possible population migration: "As many as 37 percent of young adults in sub-Saharan Africa say they want to move to another country, mostly because of a lack of employment."


https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... empowered/
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:20:21

dohboi wrote:Newf, me too!

Meanwhile:

Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered


"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today.

The so-called 'demographic transition' always depended on an unsustainable and expensive 1st World lifestyle.

The UN's latest projection is equally idiotic. Even it depends on current growth rate, which is equally unsustainable and expensive . . . even by 3rd world standards. When the oil runs out (or is stolen via the US military) Africa's meager quota (for diesel irrigation and petrol mopeds) will disappear. Then it's back to a simple Olduvai life-style.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:39:55

Yeah, pretty much.

Olduvai Style...great name for a fashion magazine! :)
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:46:54

dohboi wrote:Yeah, pretty much.

Olduvai Style...great name for a fashion magazine! :)

Image
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 12:57:33

Nice! There's yer first million right there, p! Selling the latest post-crash styles to us dumpy doomsters. :-D :-D
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