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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 17:12:15

Cog wrote:At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.

With respect, meaning what re the production, precisely?

The Model 3 production from July (which may well have been hand built) is in the hands of employees now. And reporters took lots of rides in them and drove them and generally liked the performance.

Now, if you're saying that no way does Tesla successfully ramp to the target numbers like 5,000 cars a week by year-end (with high quality), you have quite a bit of company. That will be very challenging and risky, which even Elon admits to via his "months of production hell" comment to employees at the Model 3 production launch.

...

I'm not saying you're wrong (especially since I don't know how to judge this, except by what other experts think, on average). I'd just like to understand the (adult) conversation here on this topic, as I think it's good to hear differing points of view. (The child-like posts, I feel safe in ignoring, based on the posting history of the sources).

And it's interesting. Suppose he gets half way there. Is 10,000 a month an epic fail? Is it sort of OK, as long as he gets to 20,000 a month by the middle-ish of 2018? Since it's often Tesla fanbois vs. Tesla bears in the market, and neither side seems ready to soften their tone or moderate their attitude, I don't know what to think about (what I consider very likely) success, but significant schedule slippage (based on what happened with the X and S).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 17:43:31

Cog wrote:At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 19:23:20

There's an interesting article on CNBC about Tesla's share of the US market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/new-dat ... ccess.html
He has almost half of the BEV market in the US. There is no doubt it is fan based ideology plus a quality product so far. Right now, Americans would rather sign up and wait for Model 3 than buy a Bolt. He has taken their EV market without making very many cars.

Of course it makes no sense. I can only assume these folks want to see Tesla change the world while TPTB fade away...Like me :) It's an incredible gamble that could crash and burn, or it could succeed in a way no one has in a long time. The best thing he has going for him is his fan base. If he can make cars people will buy them...Can GM say that?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 23:38:17

baha wrote:There's an interesting article on CNBC about Tesla's share of the US market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/new-dat ... ccess.html
He has almost half of the BEV market in the US. There is no doubt it is fan based ideology plus a quality product so far. Right now, Americans would rather sign up and wait for Model 3 than buy a Bolt. He has taken their EV market without making very many cars.

Of course it makes no sense. I can only assume these folks want to see Tesla change the world while TPTB fade away...Like me :) It's an incredible gamble that could crash and burn, or it could succeed in a way no one has in a long time. The best thing he has going for him is his fan base. If he can make cars people will buy them...Can GM say that?

There is no question there is a lot of idealism in the level of Tesla fan enthusiasm. Nothing wrong with that. Just not a great thing (emotion) to make solid economic predictions from, based on history.

The EV market is so tiny, and there are so few decent products produced in any volume that no wonder Tesla has taken the market. (At least is has two decent, though expensive, EV models.)

It's very early days yet. If the established automakers continue to snooze away and make empty marketing statments about what they might do in 3 or 5 years, then Tesla has a nearly wide open path to market dominance IF it doesn't screw up. If on the the other hand, they actually produce credible EV's in 2018 and 2019 as some are promising, Tesla faces lots more competition soon.

When the whole long range EV market is Tesla, the Bolt (still in tiny production from the hapless GM, still not sold in all 50 states, though that was promised in 2017) and the hapless (re EV's) Nissan, with the Leaf apparently with only a 40 KWH battery and under-powered compared to even the Bolt -- it's not exactly a big field for long range EV's.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16115 ... city-range

I'd like to see Tesla succeed. But I'm not interested in buying one unless I can get one in or near my KY city, and especially can get it reliably serviced in my city, without long wait times. In other words, Tesla has a LONG way to go to set up a solid widespread sales and service infrastructure, which the middle class will demand for competitive EV's, once we're beyond the enthusiast stage.

To me, that's why it's such an interesting horse race. We don't know which horses are running soon, much less what they'll look like. It's kind of like betting at a horse track where all you know about 75% of the field is their number, and maybe who bred/trained them. (Would you bet a lot (or even all) your money on such a race? Yet apparently, numerous Tesla fanboi's are doing just that with Tesla stock. They're either far braver or far more foolish than I).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 06:08:58

So true OS,
The Bolt is a compliance car, and a test by GM to see if there is a market. Both the Leaf and Bolt are aimed at the wrong market, everyday commuters. Tesla aimed at rich yuppies who want something cool and different. Which is why a $40k Model 3 will sell before a $30k Leaf. Nissan doesn't understand the need for 0-60 in 6 seconds. Soccer moms are not going out on a limb when they buy a car. Enthusiast like me will, but they want performance not just green.

I am looking to Mercedes and VW for the real competition. Mercedes is already threatened by Tesla. He has greatly impacted the premium sedan market. And VW has jumped in with both feet :) Hopefully their head will break the surface sometime in 2020 and there will be real competition. GM is a victim of it's own lack of vision and old business practices. They just can't learn new tricks.

I keep saying 'change the world' and everyone keeps looking for conventional business practices. Tesla's business model is to deliver cars to your area without a dealer, just a depot. More like a computer than a car. What little service is needed is provided by roaming service trucks that fix it at your house or haul it to the depot. I know, I applied for a job doing this very thing. It sounds like fun :)

You may think this will never work. You don't understand the level of reliability an electric car will have. My 2015 Transit Connect Ecoboost has almost 60k on it and I have never been to the shop. I expect it to run 200k before I have any problems, and it has an ICE. I expect 500k from an EV during the break in period :) 2-3 million miles is possible. I don't count batteries, basically these and the tires are the only consumables there are. Like a Laptop, you buy it, plug it in occasionally, and replace the battery after many years. That's about it :)

Tesla may fail to get there...GM doesn't want to get there. They would have to close all their dealerships and garages. Just don't judge Tesla based on 'how things are done'. Just like me, he does things different...
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 06:42:44

One of the reasons I have conquered the solar field is my experience in IT. Lots of folks can wire stuff up...I can do that and then make it talk on the Internet. At least 50% of the service work I do is troubleshooting Internet connections. We rely on the net to tell us when there are problems.

Tesla is the same way. Most service issues will be fixed with a new Operating System download. Internet connectivity will be the new service issue.

And Autonomy is also a hot issue. GM and Nissan have said they are looking into it...Tesla is offering the hardware today, and a software download over the net when they get approval. Apple, Google, LYFT have all started research. There is the dichotomy...who will survive...the auto companies or the IT companies. Tesla has a handle on both :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:07:04

In theory EVs can be more reliable but Tesla has serious problems with build quality. A typical Tesla owner winds up taking his or her car back to fix things like pieces of trim that are misaligned or falling off. That's the problem with trying to run a company that makes physical goods like one that deals with bits and bytes. You need expertise in both.

On the flipside, Germany is very good at precision physical manufacturing and not very good at software.

It's an open question whether Tesla will ever achieve the accuracy and precision of veteran automakers. Considering that it sells in a premium pricepoint, it must. The goodwill of early adopter evangelists cutting them slack won't last forever.

But at the same time, each automaker is rolling their own autonomy software, something even Google hasn't been able to perfect.

This is what happens when you have a case of convergence. You have companies coming at it from different sides.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:45:36

hvacman wrote:And Tesla does NOT have the lead. No one does. With the mass-market M3, rookie player Tesla will finally be stepping into "The Show". This is a scramble. Just like the start of a Hunger Games. All the players running from their start blocks for electric weapons to hack each other. The bloodshed hasn't even really started. The next few years will be fun to watch, from an sadistic EV-enthusiast's standpoint.


Not just them. Those of who are are early adopters, first of the Gen I hybrids, and then the full on Gen II plugin hybrids of lesser ranged EVs, are also watching, not from the standpoint of a sadistic, but of a customer.

We understand range anxiety, we understand where and how we used our EVs, and why we own them, and how much we like free fueling stations, and our garages, and don't ever want to stop at gas stations or convenience stores ever again.

The Bolt and Model 3 have already achieved everything they need to, to be a viable alternative for nearly every city/suburban dweller in America. If the Gen II plugable hybrid Chevy Volt was good for 75% of commuting Americans, the Bolt or M3 is probably a 99%'er.

If peak oil hadn't been just another business cycle leading to glut and low prices, this type of transport would be on every street corner already, and those trucks and SUVs so popular right now would be selling at a loss, and much like the Toyota Prius during the 2008 price spike, the pluggables and EVs would be selling at a premium, rather than the other way around.

The good news being, the bell has already been rung, and no one can unring it for those of us who now know the value of these alternative fueled means of transport. pstarr and other faux environmentalists can keep their noisy, CO2 emitting pollution machines, I'm running to the bank this morning and can promise the world that I shall not harm a single molecule of gasoline in the process.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:58:28

baha wrote:Tesla may fail to get there...GM doesn't want to get there. They would have to close all their dealerships and garages.


There are probably hundreds of millions of ICE powered machines floating around in the US, and good chunks of them will still need garages and delerships for many years, and probably decades, to come. There is no need to GM to get rid of these things. Yet.

The question revolves around the market saturation speed of EVs, how quickly can new business models make a profitability dent in GM, and how much economic pressure is required before they spin off a new company (like Saturn) to directly compete in that other business model. Saturn worked, until GM decided it didn't wish to support it anymore, it turning out that there wasn't as much money in smaller, cheaper, more fuel efficient cars. They could easily do the same with an EV division, and go head to head with Tesla and the rest. I would be surprised if they don't, in the end, exactly because of the sales/volume pressure this new business model will bring.

But ultimately, we are still talking about cars. Computers will make them better, and change the way we use them, and change the way they drive themselves, but cars none the less. Once the mass market is satisfied, with bland but completely normal cars like the Bolt, expect EV Vette's and the like, just as Tesla has the insane mode on the Model S. Performance does matter, mine is faster than yours, hauls more, looks cooler, none of those sales needs are going away any time soon.

And the good news is that when the next peak oil arrives, it will just accelerate this already existing process.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 11:17:40

Not only that, but the bigger picture is that most travel people do these days is wholly unnecessary. That even includes the daily commute, since telecommuting remains the exception rather the norm, despite the fact that most of us still just bang on keyboards for a living.

The economic output of a corporate drone who commutes to sit in a cubicle is no greater than when he sits at home.

The thermodynamic savings of society shifting to a combination of telecommuting AND increasingly robotaxi way of getting around is truly enormous. One would assume that if we did fall into a massive oil supply shortfall that society would skew this way in short order. I don't think we will see inflexible Melissa Mayer types telling their workforce they must continue to drive into work despite post-peak gas prices skyrocketing.

(BTW, at present I telecommute, but I realize this is the exception and not the rule, even in IT.)

So while, in theory, a world with no oil would be apocalyptic, even a sharp decline in oil supply is unlikely to cause the sort of Mad Max conditions that some peakers still dream about. And all that still assumes a sharp decline, not a continued buffer of supply from fracking.

You add up all these variables and I just can't quake in my boots over peak-oil right now. Only those who have constructed elaborate tightly-coupled economic models can hold onto peak-oil induced collapse.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 16:19:57

baha wrote:I keep saying 'change the world' and everyone keeps looking for conventional business practices. Tesla's business model is to deliver cars to your area without a dealer, just a depot. More like a computer than a car. What little service is needed is provided by roaming service trucks that fix it at your house or haul it to the depot. I know, I applied for a job doing this very thing. It sounds like fun :)

You may think this will never work. You don't understand the level of reliability an electric car will have.

I understand the theory. I've read about it. The problem is, so far, outside of southern CA and some big cities, it's more promises/marketing and theory than reality.

When I see Tesla service trucks out actually going to peoples' houses in central KY and fixing their Teslas, promptly and reliably, I'll be convinced. Or if I read credible articles about this going on across other "middle America" parts of the country. And the mobile service trucks won't suffice when the car needs to be put on a lift. So what happens then? How long am I without my Tesla then, and how inconvenient is that for me? (Do I have to drive it hundreds of miles to some big city? Do I get a loaner car while it's away, if Tesla takes it by lift truck? How much would I be charged for that?) These are the types of questions that MOST middle class car buyers will have, once we've passed the early adopters / enthusiast stage. (Say in a year or so, if all goes well).

And I strongly suspect most people would feel far more comfortable if such questions were answered at a nearby dealer, who will be there to stand behind the car. Not some web based marketing claims from the guy who is talking hyperloops, claiming cars will be completely autonomous in a few years, etc.

And as ASG correctly said, Tesla has had significant quality issues, and I say it likely will continue to at these early stages. Consumer Reports has confirmed this on the X and the S, so it's not just rumor or random denialists. Again, I think middle class consumers are going to care a lot about things like build quality. Tesla needs to catch up on that. That might be VERY challenging while trying to ramp up a new production process extremely rapidly on a (relatively speaking) shoestring budget.

I'm not saying the Tesla model won't "work". I'm saying there are a whole lot of unknowns, which makes it a somewhat high-risk venture, for those who want simple, convenient, reliable service from their car. For rich people (like model S drivers) who likely have other options, that's no big deal. For the typical middle class driver, I believe that's a MUCH bigger deal.

As I said before, such real world issues vs. all the "cool" and "wow" factor and Tesla potentially (if all goes well) being well ahead for volume production -- makes it a VERY interesting horse race.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 18:21:32

All very good points...Interesting how we all have our own way of seeing it.

I hear you OS. You and I are in the same age range. We have a way we are used to doing business. And in the end you are right. https://electrek.co/2017/05/03/tesla-ne ... -3-launch/ Tesla is addressing those issues. I don't know the answers to your questions, but I know who to ask...A Tesla owner :) There is an 'EV week' here in Raleigh soon. I told the boss to count me in at the shows.

The younger crowd is more willing to accept changes. They think it's cool to get service at their house. I don't know the limits of that but it will start there.

I am a glass half full kind of guy...I love my new 1.6 turbo van and it can get 35 mpg. But I accept problems with fit and trim and fix them myself better :) I pulled the interior doors apart the first two weeks, added sound deadening and modified the intake. I base my happiness on comfort, versatility, throttle response, and mechanical reliability.

I have 2 antique VW's, if something falls off I pick it up, take it home, and fix it. Or kick it to the side of the road and pretend it's not mine :) I know, most people are uptight about these things. I'll remind you of that when I blow your doors off.

I dream of an electric car that is whisper quiet, 100% reliable, powered by solar, and tougher than me :) NO ONE is there yet. Give them time...I need another few years :)

Yes, you gotta love the show...we live in interesting times.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 23:55:49

The bond offering is raising even more than the original aim
Tesla aims to make 5,000 of its mass market Model 3 a week by the end of this year.

It has estimated it is already spending about $100m a week to hit that target.

On 4 August Tesla said was looking to raise $1.5bn by selling bonds, but said on Friday it now expected to raise $1.77bn from the sale.

The fundraising is limited to major institutions and not private investors.


The report indicates that the scale indicates lack of other places to 'park their money':-
Analysts said Tesla's ability to raise more than $1.5bn indicated an appetite for risk among investors, as low interest rates have limited returns in many other types of investments. High stock market valuations have also made it harder to make a profit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40906793
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 00:23:02

They keep trucking along....but I am not sure about the tweet (should one take it literally or metaphorically? :roll: )
Mr Musk said an "unveil and test ride" for the Tesla Semi truck was tentatively scheduled for 26 October in Hawthorne, California.

"Worth seeing this beast in person. It's unreal," he said in a tweet.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41263152
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 06:02:59

Elon is the master of marketing. If he says test drive, there will be a truck there to test...Let's hope it is hauling a load of Model 3's :)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 07:54:17

LOL You aren't going to haul any serious loads with an EV. This is just more Musk hype and vaporware. Just like the Model 3.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 12:39:17

EdwinSm wrote: trucking .....


The Port of LA has been using electric trucks since 2009.

electric-truck-2009

Daimler Benz already has an electric truck on the market.

Image
Benz electric truck on the road

Good luck to TESLA on their new electric truck. They are late to the game, but maybe they can catch up.

Cheers!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 12:46:14

baha wrote:Elon is the master of marketing. If he says test drive, there will be a truck there to test...Let's hope it is hauling a load of Model 3's :)

Actually, if an article I read quoting Musk is right -- it will be hauling a load of model 3 engines -- under the hood.

What a cool idea, IMO.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 12:54:01

Cog wrote:LOL You aren't going to haul any serious loads with an EV. This is just more Musk hype and vaporware. Just like the Model 3.

Just like an EV car can't have any power? And yet we have Youtube videos of a Tesla Model X beating a supercar in a drag race -- while hauling the same model of supercar it's racing on a trailer, by a comfortable margin. Yeah, zero power there.

From what I've read, the issue is the range. These will supposedly only have a few hundred mile range or less. Which, given charging times, probably makes them best suited for regional instead of long haul service.

OTOH, this is the first attempt at this.

I'm no Tesla fanboi but your constant naysaying borders on denialist delusion. We already KNOW the Model 3 looks like a nice car, for the price. The questions are will it be profitable, and produced in volume in anything like the timeframe Musk has projected, and what will the quality be. But pretending like the Model 3, which has been driven, sold, and well received is "hype and vaporware" doesn't pass the reality test.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 14:20:54

Plantagenet wrote:Good luck to TESLA on their new electric truck. They are late to the game, but maybe they can catch up.


Come on. You're wasting all our time on useless cherry-picked propaganda.

The Nautilus E30 has a range of 40 miles (under a full load) to 60 miles (when not hauling). It powers up by plugging into a 230-volt or 480-volt charger for about three hours.


That is NOT equivalent to what Tesla is promising and you know it.

I know you've got a bug up your ass about Tesla but if you're going to spout BS then it deserves to be called out for what it is.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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