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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 05:26:06

"Wow, what a knockout MBS! "

@ Whitefang:

Indeed!



But Hurricane Jose is still looking for his sister ... maybe in BIG APPLE :cry:

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Spagetti Chaos

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:27:18

Swarmed With Mosquitoes After Harvey, Texas Calls in the US Air Force

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HOUSTON (Reuters) - Texas has launched aerial attacks on mosquitoes swarming coastal regions of the state and threatening to spread disease and hinder disaster recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.

U.S. Air Force C-130 cargo planes began spraying insecticides over three eastern Texas counties over the weekend and will expand to other areas over the next two weeks, officials from the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said. About 1.85 million acres have been treated as of Tuesday, according to the department.

Officials hope the spraying can avoid outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Texas reported 441 human cases of West Nile virus and 21 deaths since the start of 2016, according to figures released on Tuesday. It reported 342 cases of Zika virus during the same period, including one likely spread by a mosquito bite this year.

“Under the circumstances, when you have a hurricane of a magnitude like this, we would like them to spray the whole county ... everyone was affected,” Debboun said.

Harris County identified areas with dense mosquito groupings and dispatched fogging trucks every night since Sept. 4. Typically, trucks are sent only to areas with disease-carrying mosquito populations, he said.


Harvey’s Floodwaters Mix a Foul Brew of Sewage, Chemicals
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 15:25:11

Having seen all the boats and yachts pushed up into piles of debris by Irma I have to wonder why more boat owners don't drive their boat (Or pay someone else to do it.) out of the cone of uncertainty? The storm approaches at sixteen miles per hour with four days notice so most all of these boats could stay ahead of the storm by hugging the coast and pulling in to harbors to refuel as needed. A couple of thousand in fuel and labor cost seems small vs. the total loss of boats that start at $30K and go up into the millions. And the next question is why the insurance companies that write the policies on these yachts don't insist on them being moved out of the way or provide the moving service as part of the price.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 15:29:11

Yes, V, thought crossed my mind too, quite weird actually. Remember you do not have the traffic like cars. Maybe Newfie can shed some light on this.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 16:09:49

onlooker wrote:Yes, V, thought crossed my mind too, quite weird actually. Remember you do not have the traffic like cars. Maybe Newfie can shed some light on this.

Imagine Dunkirk without the Germans trying to blow your boat out of the water. Seems like you could get it done.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 22:32:53

vt...sounds like a rich persons problem to me...so not too much of a concern to me. :-D
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 03:29:23

About boats and yachts. Remember that Southeast Florida is the boating, cruising, and sport fishing capital of the world. We have more boats, yachts, and ships here than anywhere else in the world. Most of them are owned by out of town people including foreigners. They have insurance. It would take at least a week to take it far offshore. The storms are pretty scary even outside the cone. Most boaters don't have the knowledge and skill to sail offshore in a hurricane and the boats may lack equipment, too. There is a very clear shortage of sailors and crews capable of doing this. You would be risking your life by attempting it. You'd have to thoroughly check the boat and buy provisions. It is a difficult, dangerous, and expensive proposition. On power boats it would take a lot of fuel, too. Sailboats are slower.

I helped two friends prepare their 32' and 57' sailboats for the storm and recover from them. A whole day went into these preparations. They are both out of the country. One is in France and the other in the Dominican Republic. I also spent six hours yesterday dealing with the 57' because the dock it was tied to collapsed. The boat only had minor damage to the gelcoat and a little of fiberglass delamination in one spot. I had to replace several worn lines with new ones and check it thoroughly, though. I still have to take the 32 footer to its original mooring. There are a lot more boats than people qualified to deal with them. That is what insurance is for!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 03:48:19

China/Japan gets a VERY BIG HIT : Super Typhoon Talim

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I hope the needed evacuations are done.... :!: :(

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45 - 15:00 PM JST September 14 2017
TYPHOON TALIM (T1718)
==========================================================
East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Talim (935 hPa) located at 27.1N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... g/70002697

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 04:26:31

Now that is a very good reasonable explanation Juan. thx
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 07:28:44

It looks more and more likely that Jose will make an impact around here. Jose may get a chance to strengthen in warmer than normal water between Bermuda and the Carolinas... Check out this interactive map. Zoom out a bit and click on sea surface temperature anomaly.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... te=1&hur=1
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 10:56:35

And now that so many folks have stopped topping off their tanks (especially those with flooded cars) prices are sliding back towards pre Harvey/Irma levels. At least until all those gas guzzlers Revi and his neighbors start sucking up more inventor as Jose approaches. LOL.

"AP — Retail gasoline prices in Texas and the rest of the country declined 2 cents per gallon this week amid recovery from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. AAA Texas on Thursday reported the average price at the pump statewide was $2.52 per gallon. The nationwide retail gasoline price was $2.65 per gallon. Association officials say Dallas has the most expensive gasoline in Texas this week at $2.61 per gallon. Drivers in Amarillo have the cheapest gasoline statewide at $2.36 per gallon."
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 11:39:14

onlooker wrote:Now that is a very good reasonable explanation Juan. thx


Yes it is!

I'm pretty much ch out of contact for a bit, just getting some signal this afternoon sitting in Seldom Come By waiting for weather.

There has been much discussion of boat prep on sailboat threads. Even there many folks are amazed at the little w level of prep on so many boats. For a sailboat the minimum preparation would be to remove all sails and other canvas. But many, if not most folks, don't even do that.

But also I think it is part of most folks mental attitude, they are pretty passive, not active preppers.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 12:40:39

Sandy Redux: Jose Headed Towards New England; 96L a Concern for Eastern Caribbean

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https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... 68/photo/1

... A high-pressure system building in to the northeast of Jose will steer the storm to the northwest and then north over the weekend, putting Jose a few hundred miles east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday, then close to the coast of southeast Massachusetts on Wednesday. The large waves from the storm will be capable of causing high surf and considerable beach erosion along the shores of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts during this period. Jose’s fate beyond Wednesday is uncertain, with some models predicting a rapid motion to the east-northeast, out to sea, and other models predicting that Jose will get trapped in an area of weak steering currents, wandering in the waters between North Carolina and Massachusetts for multiple days.

Jose was under moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots Friday morning, and with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29.5°C (85°F), Jose should be able to regain hurricane status by Friday night. High wind shear is expected to affect Jose Sunday through Tuesday, keeping it from intensifying beyond Category 1 status, and Jose is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm over the next five days.

Most of the intensity models show Jose as a strong tropical storm with 60 – 70 mph winds throughout its closest approach to the New England coast, Wednesday and beyond.

Tropical storm-force winds are extending up to 140 miles from Jose's center.

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https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... -jose?mr=1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... #wcontents


Houston Chronicle:Climate Change: Let's Talk Openly and Honestly

If Houston is going to be serious about keeping our city safe from Mother Nature, then we have to make global warming part of the discussion.

It will be a tough conversation. Even in the 21st century, the oil and gas industry still serves as our core economic engine. They've brought untold wealth and prosperity, but at the end of the day their product is responsible for carbon emissions that trap heat in the atmosphere.

A warming planet means wetter storms, higher storm surges and more intense hurricanes, according to NASA's Earth Observatory.

Insurance companies have collected the data to back that up. The number of storms, floods, extreme temperature events and other destructive natural disasters more than tripled between 1980 and 2016, according to The Economist.

The whole world has started to notice. No longer is climate change the exclusive realm of environmentalists and academics.

The oil and gas industry has stopped denying the reality of global warming. During the Greater Houston Partnership's annual State of Energy meeting in June, Lamar McKay, deputy group chief executive at BP, called for transitioning to a lower carbon energy mix.

Petroleum leaders from around the globe spoke during CERAWeek at the George R. Brown Convention Center about shrinking carbon footprints and growing clean energy output.

Even the U.S. military is pushing forward on plans to harden naval bases against sea-level rise and prepare Arctic outposts for melting permafrost. ...

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https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... ormat=500w


Harvey and Irma are the new normal. It’s time to move away from the coasts.

... Many living in Louisiana, New York, on the edges of the Olympic Peninsula and all along the coast of Alaska have recently found themselves in the same difficult position as those recovering from Harvey and Irma, weighing the same limited choices. Irma killed about 30 people in three states, wrought extensive damage on Florida’s economy and, combined with Hurricane Harvey, racked up costs already estimated to surpass those of Hurricane Katrina. Retreat or rebuild? Some have followed the spoonbill’s example and headed for higher ground. But legal and regulatory conditions don’t make moving away from increasingly dangerous coastal areas easy. If we’re going to adapt to climate change without loss of life and unnecessary financial hardship in Harvey- and Irma-like storms, federal, state and local governments need to start financing and encouraging relocation.

Retreat is slowly gaining traction as a climate change adaptation strategy. Simple enough on the surface, it amounts to relocating or demolishing structures that are threatened by erosion or regular flooding. ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:39:32

Same as the old normal. I love my coastal weather here in California. Beautiful late summer day, high of 67 degrees lol
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 02:56:02

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Models see Hurricane Jose will hit US east coast with 80%
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Warmer water (Gulf Stream) will push him up... :(
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 10:39:46

Here is a site with updated info about how the Carib islands are coping. Seems it's gonna be a long struggle.

The comments about Day to day life are interesting.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 14:35:16

The Times Of London, Sept. 11
As Hurricane Irma batters Florida, with Anguilla, Barbuda and Cuba clearing up and Houston drying out after Harvey, it is reasonable to ask whether such tropical cyclones are getting more frequent or fiercer.

The answer to the first question is easy: no. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put it recently: “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.” The trend in numbers of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States has been slightly downward over the past century. Harvey and Irma have ended an unprecedented 12-year hurricane drought, in which not a single category 4 or 5 hurricane made American landfall. So whatever global warming is doing or will do, it is not this.


Just a normal year, climate-wise. Sadly not so for the unfortunate forced to live in low-lying flood prone regions . . . all over the world. This is a consequence of over-population and the magic no-so-invisible hand of the market. The good property on the bluffs (with the blessed view lol) is competitively priced, and out of reach of the rabble. Neither socialism nor a carbon tax will fix this. :cry:
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 18:56:43

It is interesting to see just how few people in the affected areas have any clue about how to get along without government assistance. The most valuable tools to obtain in an area where they are not coming to return services soon are a shovel , a claw hammer, hand saw, axe or machete, tarp and water containers. The shovel to dig a hole and the hammer and saw to use salvage materials to build a latrine over it. Then move on to build a mid term shelter using other salvaged material. Nails can be pulled from the debris pounded strait and reused. The tarp and water containers to catch rainwater for drinking or perhaps dig a well with the shovel well away from the latrine to get well water. (might want to boil it to be on the safe side). Pieces of debris wood too short to be reused become fuel for the cooking/ camp fire built in a ring of rocks or cinder blocks just outside your shelter.
A hard life for sure but nothing compared to being out in a wilderness with no man made materials laying about.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 21:10:06

Tropical Storm #Maria is exactly what the Caribbean doesn't need. Now expected to be a major Cat 3 hurricane by Wednesday near Puerto Rico.


https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 4681068547
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 17 Sep 2017, 04:28:07

Maria

NHC forecast discussion this AM

Key points
1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
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