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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 03:36:26

USA/Florida

Get ready for DEEP IMPACT of a CAT 5 hurricane IRMA never seen before on this planet by modern human predators.

Great Oracle video here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOUhWT6dA5c

What if a Cat 5 Hurricane Hit Tampa


IRMA Reality 2017
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... n/animated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4v0Cb68lbg

Hurricane Katja could go crazy and go east threw GOM and USA as its outflow does...... :!: 8O :shock:

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... te=1&hur=1
Last edited by M_B_S on Thu 07 Sep 2017, 04:15:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 04:14:42

joewp wrote:
Cog wrote:Models are shifting east. Florida will be fine.


Ya know Cog, I rarely agree with you, but I do hope you're right. :?


This should inspire you. I've made three bets on GDP growth to three different people here and lost every one of them. :lol:
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 08:15:40

Image

Synchron earth hurricane inspirations from space

Music on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Cd9FYO9Rh4
Scorpions Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra Rock You Like a Hurricane
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 08:32:39

The latest European model shows central pressure of 909 mb and forecast landfall near Key Largo.

If you closely follow hurricane forecasting, you know that in recent years, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has the best forecast model in the world based upon skill scores. Often, the model produced by this intergovernmental organization of 34 nations generates the best forecasts for hurricane tracks. In some cases, during Hurricane Harvey, it even exceeded the skill of human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.

The US analog to the European model is the Global Forecast System. It has a lower resolution, and it typically doesn't perform quite as well (proposed NOAA budget cuts will make matters worse, too).

Critically, while the other forecast models this morning were suggesting that Irma now appeared more likely to remain off the east coast of Florida, the European model was still holding to a "most likely" landfall position along the southern Florida coast.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 08:44:35

Thursday 5:00 AM NOAA track map. It looks like Miami is the bulls eye. Irma could still track either to the west or east but the odds are getting less and less. We should know by this afternoons 5:00 PM release.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 09:02:48

Joe - Just saw a better time lapse of that high pressure ridge (which marks the jet stream steering current) and it looks to have stalled over northern FL. That would support Irma getting pushed east into the Atlantic by the time it gets that far north. But still seems like a good chance it will penetrate the southern part of the state before the gradient shoves the bitch eastward. The good news for those evac'ng: may not have to go north of St. Augustine.

Good luck Juan et al. Juan also I was wrong: my wife' s sister is more like 2 hours north of you.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 09:15:06

US projected track just shifted west to align with the European model, landfall near Key Largo and tracking west of Miami before setting course for South Carolina.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 09:24:21

9AM Eastern
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 09:48:51

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL112017_k ... es.png?033
They are saying that the threat of DIRECT impacts to Florida in the weekend and into early next week continues to increase
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 10:52:59

The path of the hurricane probability path has broadened to the east. I still believe it will miss Miami and southern Florida as the high will push it eastward as it make the 90 degree turn.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 10:54:27

dohboi - Fujiwara: not familiar with that dynamic so can't offer an opinion.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 12:38:29

Hurricanes feed off of warm water at the surface of the ocean—the greater the temperature difference between the surface and the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the more potential energy a storm has. As a general rule, sea surface temperatures of about 26.5° Celsius are warm enough to allow hurricanes to strengthen.

Unfortunately, over the next two or three days Irma will move over an area of ocean just north of the Caribbean Sea even warmer than the waters it is now crossing. In fact, the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas are warmer than 30° Celsius.

Alas, the current wind shear environment along Irma's path is favorable for the storm's organization. Wind shear may increase as the storm approaches the southern Florida coast, but by then it may be too late to matter a whole lot.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 13:09:20

Cid - Unfortunately the last time I saw a time lapse image of the high pressure ridge it looked like the jet stream stalled over northernmost FL. If so it doesn't look like much shearing potential over southern FL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 14:19:39

IIRC, they were saying that shear would prevent Katia (then TD 97, I think) from becoming a hurricane. I think both the surface warmth and the warmth at depth are allowing storms to develop that should have been cut off by shear.

If this Irma now going to go over over hot water without much shear...oh my.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 15:15:41

I think it now appears quite certain that wherever exactly it hits land, it will be a category 5. Wow. Or do any of you disagree?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 16:26:33

And now according to NHC, Hurricane Jose is now a category 3 and following in the footsteps of Irma. Hurricane watch in effect for Barbudas. Yes, the same one that just got flattened by Irma. This is now getting cruel.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 16:56:42

dohboi - The unknown with Katia is that it's at the western end of where the jet stream dipped south. IOW the pressure gradient line runs parallel to a NW/SE strike. So it srands as a blocker from moving north towards Texas but apparently not enough shear effect to diminish it. Last I saw it was still floating in the B of C and not being pushed into Mexico...yet. And now running 80 mph and expected to roll into Mexico on Monday.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:11:19

Storm track has now moved even farther west. Irma is now expected to drive straight up the peninsula and into Georgia without returning to the Atlantic.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:35:49

The view from the downside of three quarters of a century

I grew up in northern Oklahoma. Survived a tornado that killed dozens. So I learned to pay attention to weather. It is absolutely amazing to me that the computer models could project from a storm in the middle of the Atlantic to a 'threading of the eye of the needle' in terms of the middle of the Florida peninsula as a landfall.

No need to comment on those who claim that the 'models don't understand troughs and highs'.

The news may not be what we want to hear, but we can't say we weren't warned. Both in the case of this specific storm and also the larger scheme of global warming and the direction toward more intense storms.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:45:16

European model track now shows a direct hit on Marathon in the central Keys. It's looking more and more like the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane
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