AdamB wrote:Subjectivist wrote:I predict once the glut abates we will see this meme rapidly reappear.
And those who already own and drive EVs really won't care very much. Or at all.
All hail peak oil personal transport solutions! Get one now while they are still cheap like the gasoline!
Why wouldn't waiting make sense, if it's about saving money? (i.e. intelligently considering the odds, overall).
1). We know they're getting more plentiful in the next 3 to 5 years. Per manufacturer claims, 200 mile-ish range ones will get FAR more plentiful.
2). We know the trend is they're getting better. They're learning and improving on the batteries and the EV tech. all the time.
3). We can likely forecast (independent of gasoline prices for the moment) that they'll get cheaper. There is a LOT of LI ION battery capacity coming online in the next few years from the likes of Musk, and various international competitors (big names, and outfits in China, for example), aimed at EV's for coming years. Plus with more competition, it will be more of a buyer's market. (i.e., Musk can't arbitrarily slap on a $9000 price on a 90 mile range extension, without worrying about how that will make competitors' prices look, just because he wants a bigger Model 3 profit margin).
4). We can keep an eye on how things like EV tech and infrastructure progresses, and gauge our decision to pull the trigger with more information, if things like that are important to us, as EV owners.
5). So the only real downside to waiting (from a purely financial POV) is the risk of a substantial gasoline price rise, which could raise the demand for EV's. But oil prices might not rise quickly, or by a lot (or at all). And though it will no longer be a buyer's market re cheap gasoline prices, all the other points are pluses, which could easily pull the net EV price (especially for what you get) down more than higher gasoline prices increases the EV price.
....
Don't get me wrong, I think EV's in coming years, as the industry matures a bit, look hugely promising. I'm just not compelled to let the threat of a potential spike in gasoline prices scare me into rushing into a purchase decision with a rapidly evolving (and improving from many customer vantage points, like choice) market.
Of course, as with all things, one pays one's money (or waits), and one takes their chances. I can't see the future and have no idea which choice will be the "right" one.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.