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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 23 Jul 2017, 14:18:06

I think Hansen expects some cooling of North Atlantic waters due to melt from Greenland, Arctic sea ice transport, and the Canadian archipelago, too. Is that what you expect? Are we seeing that already?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dissident » Sun 23 Jul 2017, 15:56:35

dohboi wrote:I think Hansen expects some cooling of North Atlantic waters due to melt from Greenland, Arctic sea ice transport, and the Canadian archipelago, too. Is that what you expect? Are we seeing that already?


No, the freshwater shutdown of the haline component of the THC in the Greenland Sea has not happened yet. But that will be one of the things that flips us into the super-stratified state. But Europe will not get into any ice age. The shallow meridional circulation will still pump warm water towards the poles. The intensity of this circulation near the surface is not small and it can produce rapid transport. The main point is that those surface waters will be very warm (relative to the historical norm) and combined with the isolation from deeper waters we get a large amount of surface heat transport even if perhaps the total heat transport drops. The atmosphere and human survival depends on sea surface temperatures and chemistry in the ocean surface layer.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 14:00:40

(I guess the suggested strategy of engaging KJ on his OT comments on another, more appropriate thread didn't pan out this time... :cry: )

dis, what I meant was not the total shut down of the AMOC (yet), but the observed cool anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic over the last decade or so. But I haven't looked into this issue recently, so maybe things have changed?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dissident » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 16:33:10

dohboi wrote:(I guess the suggested strategy of engaging KJ on his OT comments on another, more appropriate thread didn't pan out this time... :cry: )

dis, what I meant was not the total shut down of the AMOC (yet), but the observed cool anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic over the last decade or so. But I haven't looked into this issue recently, so maybe things have changed?


The anomaly seems to be related to storm track (baroclinic eddy pathway) changes and possibly to Atlantic Ocean circulation changes. I have not read any papers that do detailed measurements to determine how deep this feature is and other aspects. But the change in storm tracks is a more defined thing. The warming is redistributing the atmospheric flow. Ironically, in Ontario this has meant a regional cooling. But more warm air is getting into the polar cap zone and hence more cold polar air is getting into middle latitudes.

Here is an analysis of the ocean circulation changes that I just found:

http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and- ... uary-2017/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 14:18:10

Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Impacting Atlantic Ocean Water Circulation System

Scientists at Yale University and the University of Southampton say the ongoing Arctic ice loss can play an active role in altering one of the planet's largest water circulation systems: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

... "Conventional thinking has been that if ocean circulation weakens, reducing the transport of heat from low to high latitudes, then it should lead to sea ice growth. But we have found another, overlooked, mechanism by which sea ice actively affects AMOC on multi-decadal time scales," said professor Alexey Fedorov, climate scientist at the Yale Department of Geology and Geophysics and co-author of a study detailing the findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Earlier this year, a different Yale-led study cautioned that the AMOC system was not as stable as previously thought. That study said the possibility of a collapsed AMOC under global warming conditions is being significantly underestimated.

"We've now found this new connection between sea ice and AMOC," Liu said. "Sea ice loss is clearly important among the mechanisms that could potentially contribute to AMOC collapse."
"In our experiments we saw a potential loss of 30% to 50% of AMOC's strength due to Arctic sea ice loss. That is a significant amount, and it would accelerate the collapse of AMOC if it were to occur"

In the short-term, changes in the subpolar North Atlantic have the greatest impact on AMOC, the researchers found; but over the course of multiple decades, it was changes in the Arctic that became most important to AMOC, they said.

"We suggest that Arctic changes on a multi-decadal timescale, such as the decline in sea ice cover that we are currently experiencing, is the most efficient way to weaken the large-scale ocean circulation of the North Atlantic, which is responsible for the oceanic transport of heat from the equator to high latitudes," Sévellec said.

Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change (2017).

Image

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 22:37:24

Thanks for that, vox. Just saw it on a different blog. Looks like a game-changer to me.

Meanwhile, a couple graphs for any remnant (revenant??) doubters (esp. of the 'it's all the sun' variety):

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-2 ... ommenthead



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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 01 Aug 2017, 20:44:18

"Suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers linked to climate change, study claims"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... udy-claims

Extract: "Rising temperatures and the resultant stress on India’s agricultural sector may have contributed to increase in suicides over the past 30 years, research shows"
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 02 Aug 2017, 21:31:14

Image


Notice how the liars at NASA start this temperature graph at -0.2 degrees. That way the increase in global T up over the ca. 60 years covered in the graph appears to only be ca. 1.0°C, when it is actually +1.2-1.3°C*

Its bad enough when the lying politicians minimize the global warming problem or even pretend they've fixed things with a bogus treaty, but its even worse when scientists themselves start to fudge their data to minimize the problem.

------------

*The last couple of years have really seen global T going up fast---the planet has heated up by ca. 1.6° C since the 20th century started.

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Aug 2017, 01:18:51

scientists...can't live with 'em....
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 07:44:04

Government Report Finds Drastic Impact of Climate Change on U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/clim ... trump.html

WASHINGTON —
The average temperature in the United States has risen rapidly and drastically since 1980, and recent decades have been the warmest of the past 1,500 years, according to a sweeping federal climate change report awaiting approval by the Trump administration.

The draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies, which has not yet been made public, concludes that Americans are feeling the effects of climate change right now. It directly contradicts claims by President Trump and members of his cabinet who say that the human contribution to climate change is uncertain and that the ability to predict the effects is limited.
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One government scientist who worked on the report, and who spoke to The Times on the condition of anonymity, said he and others were concerned that it would be suppressed.
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The Environmental Protection Agency is one of 13 agencies that must approve the report by Sunday. The agency’s administrator, Scott Pruitt, has said he does not believe that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming.

“It’s a fraught situation,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geoscience and international affairs at Princeton University who was not involved in the study. “This is the first case in which an analysis of climate change of this scope has come up in the Trump administration, and scientists will be watching very carefully to see how they handle it.”


thnx to pil at asif for this
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 01:51:51

Last Year's Global Temperatures Were the Highest Ever Recorded

http://time.com/4895913/global-temperat ... te-change/

The report, prepared by almost 500 scientists from around the world, shows that last year’s average global temperatures were the highest ever recorded. There were more major tropical cyclones than usual, longer droughts and less snow cover. After years of increasing, Antarctic sea ice declined, undercutting an argument by those who dispute the science of global warming.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 12:54:45

Record Lows for the Quinault River Due to Loss of Glaciers
A new study by the American Geophyshysical Union documents the importance of glaciers in recharging aquifers and keeping rivers flowing
Richard Walker • August 13, 2017
Anderson Glacier in the Olympic Mountains is gone, and the lack of glacial meltwater has caused the Quinault River to reach new lows.

Montana’s Glacier National Park had 150 glaciers in 1850; today there are 25.

Greenland’s Helheim Glacier is retreating 110 feet per day.

Bolivia’s Chacaltaya Glacier, at one time one of the highest-altitude ski resorts on earth, no longer exists, threatening water and power supplies in the Andean region.

https://indiancountrymedianetwork.com/n ... -glaciers/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dissident » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 22:45:07

This really deserves its own thread, but there are too many on similar topics already. One of the often repeated notions is that the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) will cool off the the high northern latitudes including Europe. With enough repetition this has become, in Goebbels' style, a "fact".

This notion is actually rather dubious. The North Atlantic surface water temperatures are 85% due to local solar heating and 15% to long range transport (AMOC). An important detail being missed in the AMOC "shutdown" thinking is that surface warming is acting to amplify a thermally self-isolating surface layer. That is, the AMOC is getting shallower just due to warming. In addition, the saline driven part of the AMOC (which is part of the global thermo-haline circulation) pumps heat into deep waters. So shutting it down and leaving a weak surface AMOC does not automatically translate into cooling, but into more surface heat retention.

It is important to note that there is extremely little radiative loss of ocean heat to the atmosphere. Only the top meter of the ocean is engaged in IR radiation loss. Lower layers are essentially adiabatic. The thermal memory of the oceans is very long even near the surface. Circulation flows and eddies are necessary for heat exchange.

The only way to quantify the effect of the AMOC weakening is to conduct model simulations. It is impossible to solve this nonlinear system analytically and hand waving won't take you far. But even without numerical simulations, there is a clear missing process in the often repeated claim that the AMOC "shutdown" will trigger a cooling. In fact, there will not be any shutdown of the dynamical AMOC aside from the haline component. As long as the sun shines and the winds blow, the dynamical AMOC will be active. There are variants of the meridional overturning circulation in the troposphere and stratosphere as well since the critical element in organizing this circulation is the Coriolis torque due to planetary rotation and eddy fluxes.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 00:57:11

As long as the sun shines and the winds blow...


My favorite line from the latest version of On the Beach.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyYR4do ... 5765EFE9CD
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 18:13:34

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/16/ ... -going-on/

No El Nino, But July of 2017 was the Hottest on Record

....


nothing to see here


....


keep moving along


...
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 17 Aug 2017, 05:39:05

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eugO8yPVz4w

Even Climate Scientists Are Now Revealing Their Fears For The Future!

CLIMATE CHANGE TRUTH

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The GW reality will be more brutal you could predict....

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