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Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby misterno » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 10:38:50

Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 11:20:43

here is an analysis of the situation
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/07/24/gasoline-volume-sales-and-our-changing-culture

the second chart is instructive ....gasoline prices, recession versus gasoline sales
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 11:35:02

misterno wrote:Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?


No, but your assumption that the modern fleet is getting less efficient because of the truck and SUV sales is. It's simple. The US fleet is getting steadily more efficient. That, all things being equal, will reduce the gasoline demand over time.

I did a simple Google search on "us fleet fuel efficiency" to get links like these, which clearly demonstrate this:

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita ... 04_23.html

https://phys.org/news/2016-11-average-f ... h-mpg.html

http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/EDI_sale ... d-mpg.html

The flattening of the NEW vehicle fleet mileage since 2014 is likely caused by the switch to bigger vehicles, like the trucks and SUV's. However, the overall trend is still moving up as younger vehicles are replaced by newer vehicles with an overall mpg near 25.

And this is an example of why a sizable transportation fuels CO2 tax would be so great in the US. A solid wallet-based incentive would give everyone buying a big truck or SUV who has no need for one a BIG incentive to buy, say, a hybrid sedan getting twice the real world MPG instead (oh, and likely a cheaper sticker price than the giant truck or SUV as well).

Actually, given how many people are buying the inefficient vehicles, it's impressive to me that the US mpg trend for new vehicles is managing to remain roughly flat.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby marmico » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 12:51:05

So is this graph wrong?


No. It measures ~65% decline in refiner retail sales not the ~1% decline in total sales.

Due to US refiners both divesting retail gasoline stations to and the growth in independents (e.g, big box stores) and the E10 mandated gasoline blending requirement, there are lower refiner retail sales and higher rack (blending terminal) sales.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_r ... alpd_m.htm
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 15:55:46

misterno wrote:Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?

No it is the wrong graph. It leaves out imported finished gasoline and blender production. For total supplied and consumed by consumers use this graph and see there is no downward trend in driving or gasoline consumption.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... FUPUS1&f=M
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 16:26:45

So 'Motor Gasoline Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Sales Volumes' have collapsed since the peak in conventional cheap production back in 2005. And so have 'U.S. Motor Gasoline Refiner Sales Volumes'. Plus 'U.S. Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes'

And you cornies say what?
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 17:25:21

pstarr wrote:So 'Motor Gasoline Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Sales Volumes' have collapsed since the peak in conventional cheap production back in 2005. And so have 'U.S. Motor Gasoline Refiner Sales Volumes'. Plus 'U.S. Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes'

And you cornies say what?

Tell us how we're dooooooooooooooooooomed to lack of gasoline production when oil isn't so plentiful that low prices are making your ilk rave about all the doom from oil company bankruptcies. (Aes though that does anything to the actual oil).

I just googled doomtard, and found it in the urban dictionary. It seems to describe your (and the ETP crowd) thought processes very well. Note: it's derogatory. Congrats, you earned it.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 17:32:15

doomtard lol How bout those sales volumes?
Image
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 17:35:25

pstarr wrote:doomtard lol How bout those sales volumes?
Image

What part of "it's the wrong graph" can't you understand?

Asked and answered.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 17:53:32

Total Retail Sales by Refiners has fallen by 55% since 2005. The obvious reason is that the oil age is ending.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby marmico » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 18:08:17

2016 US gasoline consumption was a record high. So much for the ETP affordability doomtards.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 18:20:02

The oil industry can get higher volume of gasoline sales with a lower price or lower volume of gasoline sales with a higher price. They have to keep moving the price down to gain sales. If the world wide industry is doing the same thing they know the gig is up and are selling while they can. Per capita, we are using less gasoline. Thanks for the chart.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 18:23:04

Simple market economics in oil don't seem to be as well understood as they should be.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 18:36:05

creedoninmo wrote:They have to keep moving the price down to gain sales


If that's the case, where were they with this mentality in 2008 then? Supply and demand matters.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 20:10:07

From EIA This Week in Petroleum Aug 9, 2017

Gasoline production by U.S. refiners and blenders is running near record levels over the first seven months of 2017, with four-week rolling average production well above its five-year average and close to the top of its five-year range. Despite growing domestic and foreign demand leading to draws from gasoline stocks over the past seven consecutive weeks, gasoline inventories also continue to remain above their five-year average levels.
Growth in U.S. gasoline production since March is the result of record-high refinery runs. For the week ending April 21, U.S. refinery runs exceeded 17.5 million barrels per day (b/d) for the first time since EIA began publishing the weekly data series in 1990. Refinery runs have since exceeded this threshold six additional times, reaching an all-time high of 17.8 million b/d the week ending on July 28.
Net production of finished motor gasoline (unadjusted refiner and blender net production of finished motor gasoline less use of fuel ethanol to isolate the petroleum component) averaged 9.3 million b/d for the week ending July 28 (Figure 1). This quantity is 70,000 b/d below the five-year high, but still more than 511,000 b/d above the five-year average.

Despite historically high gasoline production levels, cumulative draws from gasoline inventories beginning with the week ending June 16 totaled 14.8 million barrels, resulting in a 6.5% reduction in inventory levels to 227.7 million barrels as of July 28. The July 28 inventory level is nearly 12.6 million barrels below the previous five-year high, but still 6.2 million barrels above the previous five-year average (Figure 2). High levels of exports and product supplied (a measure of domestic demand) are responsible, at least in part, for these recent draws.


Total gasoline exports, including finished gasoline and blending components, began 2017 nearly 90% above the five-year average and remained more than 80% above the average until February 10. Since then, exports of gasoline have trended above the five-year average and along the top of the five-year range. While estimated gasoline exports have slipped the past two weeks, they remain nearly 26,000 b/d above the five-year average as of July 28


EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that motor gasoline consumption will be virtually unchanged in 2017, with product supplied expected to increase by 3,000 b/d (less than 0.1%), to an average of slightly more than 9.3 million b/d for the year. In 2016, gasoline consumption increased by 1.6%. The flat forecast for gasoline consumption reflects slower expected growth in non-farm employment and an expected increase in the retail price of gasoline. Gasoline consumption in 2018 is expected to grow by 27,000 b/d (0.3%) from its projected 2017 level.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 20:58:10

creedoninmo wrote: They have to keep moving the price down to gain sales. If the world wide industry is doing the same thing they know the gig is up and are selling while they can. .......

You have to have the gas in hand to sell it at a lower price. If they could sell all they had in stock at a higher price there is no reason why they would lower the price.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 21:16:41

I will rephrase this with pictures. For the hard-of-thinking

pstarr said: So 'Motor Gasoline Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Sales Volumes' have collapsed since the peak in conventional cheap oil production back in 2005.
Image

Isn't the EIA supposed to be the Gold Standard for oil analysis. The goto guys for right-on charts? That chart keeps saying the same thing. I don't know.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 21:31:46

asg70 said: "
If that's the case, where were they with this mentality in 2008 then? Supply and demand matters." In 2008 the economy was stronger. We have not yet gotten to the era of shortages. We are still producing volume to a weakening economy. I would say that there is still a chance that a lowering price will destroy the dollar, but we need more time and data to see.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 21:33:45

pstarr wrote:I will rephrase this with pictures. For the hard-of-thinking

pstarr said: So 'Motor Gasoline Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Sales Volumes' have collapsed since the peak in conventional cheap oil production back in 2005.

And you cornies say what?
That is sales from refiners only. Which is a small subset of total gasoline sales. Total gasoline sales are over 8.5 million barrels per day. That graph you posted is less than 600,000 barrels per day. Or since you like pictures:

Total US Gasoline

Or since you seem to be having trouble looking at raw EIA data, how about some comments where the EIA data has already been digested:

The average fuel economy of vehicles on U.S. roads is improving, as a result of federal regulations, which is offsetting the continued growth in driving.

U.S. refiners and fuel blenders supplied an average of 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of motor gasoline to domestic consumers in January, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Motor gasoline sales have been flattening even though the number of miles driven has continued to rise fairly steadily. U.S. motorists drove 2.2 percent more miles in January compared with the same month a year earlier.

Since the drop in oil prices in 2014 and 2015, U.S. motorists have increasingly opted for larger and more fuel-hungry sport-utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles and other light trucks. So the mix of new vehicles sold has become less fuel-efficient than was projected a few years ago as more light trucks are sold and fewer cars. Both light trucks and passenger cars have become much more fuel efficient than the old vehicles they are replacing. Light trucks produced in 2016 were required to achieve a volume-weighted average fuel economy of 28.8 miles per gallon (mpg) in test conditions, up from just 21.6 mpg in 2006.

Cars produced in 2016 were required to achieve a volume-weighted average of 37.8 mpg, up from 27.5 mpg in 2006. Critically, the fuel-economy standard for light trucks in 2016 (28.8 mpg) was tougher than the standard for passenger cars in 2006 (27.5 mpg).

In practice, the fuel-economy of both cars and trucks has increased even faster than mandated by federal regulations as manufacturers have responded to demands from customers. As a result, the average vehicle being driven on U.S. highways is becoming steadily more fuel efficient as old cars and light trucks are retired and replaced by newer models.
U.S. gasoline consumption flattens as fuel economy improves

Vehicle miles traveled has already broken through the pre-recession highs. The only reason gasoline sales have not is because of increase in efficiency.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 21:40:19

To pstarr; total gasoline sales to end users by refineries have dropped. The refineries sold off a lot of their retail outlets a few years ago. They are now selling a lot of gasoline through independent outlets. Total gasoline sales to end users is remaining fairly constant. The world is still producing gasoline at greater and greater debt. The amount of debt is unknown because the fed doesn't release M3 data.
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