Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 04:25:43

onlooker wrote:Plant, is so right, what difference does it make since to date all the so called treaties and accords have been at best insufficient to propel any effective reduction in man made CO2. What is downright frightening is the realization that our species has NO intention to give up on FF given how integral they are in the economies of many countries.


The logical consequence out of this is declare [b]WAR on all FF corporations and destroy the FF industry @ all cost ![/b]

The victory price will be our all survival !

If human mankind lost this vital war for survival we will go extinct together with millions of other species in the six selfmade mass extinction event on this planet.

So human mankind declare TOTAL WAR to the FF Industries on all fronts or go extinct.

The declararition of WAR could be held in a W. Churchill style:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TlkN-dcDCk

Image
MANKIND is @ WAR with itself!

"Without any equivocation and firm in my belief that this is a just war like no other, a war engaged not only to defend ourselves but to defend the generations to follow, I formally declare a total war on the Energy Industrial Complex."

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1820.0
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 14:04:28

onlooker wrote:Plant, is so right, what difference does it make since to date all the so called treaties and accords have been at best insufficient to propel any effective reduction in man made CO2. What is downright frightening is the realization that our species has NO intention to give up on FF given how integral they are in the economies of many countries.


This is the realization I came to about 2 or 3 years ago. There is little sense of putting your energy into stopping the catastrophe, put all available energy into surviving the crash.

That said,
A. Climate change is unlikely to kill any of us here, too old, too slow
B. Collapse of the global financial system is likely to hit us first, at any time or in 10 years, who knows.

Best to mix energies between prepping and enjoying life. Try to find something that feeds both needs.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9434
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 14:24:44

C: Climate change isn't going to kill any of us.

I'll go with this option since its the one that is actually happening.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9492
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 15:36:02

Well, Newf you are probably right. Before the worse of climate change can get middle age to elder people, the financial fallout will be very severe and potentially life threatening to many. But my sense of dread has been and continues to be for future generations and what meager prospects seem to await them because of the combination of a collapsed economy, resource shortages and climate change. I am having a hard time thinking as Ibon that the hell is what we will leave behind
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 19:32:26

US Abandons Global Science Leadership, Zeroes Out IPCC Funding

The IPCC also appears as zero request for the fiscal year 2018 in both the State Department’s Congressional Budget Justification, as well as the House’s State and Foreign Operations Bill (whose summary includes the IPCC on a list that “does not include funding for controversial or unnecessary programs”).

Without the U.S.’ contribution in FY 2017, the IPCC was short in contributions. As a result, the institution was forced to draw from its financial reserves.

This may not be sustainable in the long run and risks the institution’s ability to provide governments with the best available information on changes ahead. Accordingly, in June 2017, the Netherlands announced it would double its IPCC contribution in light of U.S. actions and is urging other nations to increase their contributions.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
User avatar
vox_mundi
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3667
Joined: Wed 27 Sep 2006, 02:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 19:45:53

Cog wrote:C: Climate change isn't going to kill any of us.

I'll go with this option since its the one that is actually happening.


Extreme heat waves have already killed thousands of people in Europe, Asia and India.

No doubt many thousands more will soon die in future heat waves

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20534
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 20:47:56

Plantagenet wrote:
Cog wrote:C: Climate change isn't going to kill any of us.

I'll go with this option since its the one that is actually happening.


Extreme heat waves have already killed thousands of people in Europe, Asia and India.

No doubt many thousands more will soon die in future heat waves

Cheers!


True, but statistically many more people have died of hypothermia than hyperthermia, at least in the USA. This may change as more heat waves stack up, but so far it remains true. According to CDC statistics an average of 1300 Americans die from hypothermia each year.
More than 13,400 hypothermia deaths occurred in the United States between 2003 and 2013, with unadjusted annual rates ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 per 100,000 persons, the report says. A statistically significant increase in death rates from hypothermia occurred over the decade.

https://consumer.healthday.com/environm ... 96679.html

On the other side of the coin about half as many die from hyperthermia in an average year in the USA.
About 650 deaths each year from extreme heat could have been prevented, the CDC warned in a study published on June 6 in its journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. In total there were 7,233 heat-related deaths from 1999 to 2009.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14070
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:46:41

Those hypothermia deaths are almost all fairly easily preventable with adequate insulation in houses, as Sweden does:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 093136.htm
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16783
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:58:39

dohboi wrote:Those hypothermia deaths are almost all fairly easily preventable with adequate insulation in houses, as Sweden does:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 093136.htm


The same thing is true of Hyperthermia, despite pronouncements that we will all drop dead. Just as insulation protects from cold it does the same for heat.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14070
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 10:40:28

Agreed Onlooker. It's a bleak future.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9434
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 13:42:33

T, true, but you eventually have to go outside. If it's cold, you can bundle up.

But there's a limit to how much you can disrobe when it is too hot. And of course if it's wbt 95 F, no matter how naked you are, or how shady a spot you've found, or how windy it is, or how little you move...you are dead in a few hours.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16783
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 16:49:59

T and D

1. The trend and the rate of change are more interesting than historical figures.
2. Extrapolating USA stats across the globe is reaching.
3. I have no illusion that meaningful world stats will be available until such time as the results are obvious without them.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9434
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 30 Oct 2017, 22:37:30

I have my doubts, but I do try to present all the available relevant evidence...and I'm sure Plant will have something to say on this :-D

New data gives hope for meeting the Paris climate targets

(Yes, gratuitous huge font size :) :) )

https://www.skepticalscience.com/new-da ... rgets.html

Over the past half-century, growth in the global economy and carbon pollution have been tied together. When the global economy has been strong, we’ve consumed more energy, which has translated into burning more fossil fuels and releasing more carbon pollution. But over the past four years, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions have been decoupled. The global economy has continued to grow, while data from the EU Joint Research Centre shows carbon pollution has held fairly steady...


Seems to be dependent on trusting Chinese stats (always dangerous), and a bunch of wishful thinking about the US and some other things...but...???
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16783
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 30 Oct 2017, 22:53:33

dohboi wrote:I'm sure Plant will have something to say on this :-D


You do like to pull my chain

I’m still in Kathmandu w just my itouch so I can’t do links, but the BBC world news is reporting that the 2016 CO2 level in the atmosphere has just been finalized and the news is bad. There was a giant jump in CO2 levels—-about 50% bigger then any prior annual jump in atmospheric CO2

All perfectly OK under the Paris Accords, of course, since they allow increasing CO2 emissions


Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20534
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 00:28:55

Plantagenet wrote:No doubt many thousands more will soon die in future heat waves


They thank you for doing your small part by flying to Kathmandu purely for your own selfish recreation.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1213
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 02:46:59

asg70 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:No doubt many thousands more will soon die in future heat waves


....thank you for doing your small part by flying to Kathmandu purely for your own selfish recreation.


Thank you for always staying close to home and having no curiousity or interest in seeing the rest of the world. However you might consider switching to a smaller TV in your home in order to further reduce the amount of electricity you are wasting and CO2 you are emitting during your purely selfish TV viewing

Cheers

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20534
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 02:57:12

Plantagenet wrote:Thank you for always staying close to home and having no curiousity or interest in seeing the rest of the world.


Dude, your argument is morally bankrupt and you're the only one who doesn't realize it.

So stop pretending to give a shit about the environment. You could crack open a book or watch a documentary on other countries if you wanted to learn about them. Your jet-setting is hypocrisy of the highest order. Do as I say, not as I do, basically.

Do you also club baby harp seals in your spare time, by any chance? I know they live up there too. I mean, you gotta work really hard to kill the planet to show how much you love Gaia...when you're not otherwise wallowing in petty politics here.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1213
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 03:24:20

asg70 wrote:
Do you ... club baby harp seals in your spare time, by any chance? .


No can’t say as I do.

However my Inupiat friends used to invite me home for muktuk and whale stew back when I was teaching remotes classes in Dillingham and Barrow

How about you? Have you baby seals being clubbed on your TV?

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20534
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 04:29:32

I guess I'm not the only one yankin' P's chain here! :-D

Yeah, I saw that BBC piece and others reporting on the same study...I probably linked to it somewhere in these threads. One of the reasons I find the conclusions in this piece...rather dubious.

We have claims that global carbon emissions have plateaued in the last few years, yet studies that show that atmospheric CO2 levels have not only continued to increase (which would be expected even with no new increases in rates of emissions...stocks vs flows and all that) but are actually accelerating.

This either means that:

1) the apparent recent acceleration is all because the long El Nino of 2015 - 2016 caused a temporary extra upswing (because the increase in sea surface temperature associated with that phenomenon means less CO2 gets absorbed by the ocean), in which case we should expect the acceleration to turn into deceleration in the coming few years.

2) the emissions numbers are wrong for one reason or another (most likely China, but other sources could be under-reported too).

3) 'positive' exacerbating carbon feedbacks are kicking in--either major sinks are failing, or major new sources are being triggered, or both.

4) some combination of some or all of the above. (Others give a holler there are other possibilities I haven't included here, please.)

#1 would be the most benign of these, and it is pretty certain that this El Nino had some effect. It strikes me that, if so, there should be also a corresponding acceleration in the rate of average ocean acidification, but I haven't been following that as closely as that unfolding global catastrophe deserves. Does anyone have links to good sources of data on that? Does it take longer to get an accurate picture of that than the atmospheric data?

Anyway, I think #4 is most likely, but determining exactly how much each of the three causes plays into the current mess is likely to be...tricky at best. There are certainly recent studies and observations that point to feedbacks starting to kick in, and China has a reputation for presenting rosy data on this and other fronts only to eventually 'correct' them later ... perhaps an isotopic study of atmospheric carbon could help sort this out. Too tired right now to see if there is one to track down, so I'll leave it to others to track down.

(asg, I've pretty much given up berating folks for knowingly and unnecessarily making the situation much worse even as they wring their hands about it. If I did so consistently with everyone I know who flies a lot, eats a lot of meat...I'd have no time for anything else, and I haven't noticed it having much effect on behavior anyway. But good wishes to you if you think you can make a dent! :) )
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16783
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 10:19:10

You forgot #4, people are using optimistic modeling instead of real world numbers. What I mean is very simple, we have China building or importing somewhere between 27-30 million new ICE vehicles this year while the EU/North America/Japan/Korea are maintaining their already existing large fleets and we have India starting to do the vehicle accumulation dance as well. Next both China and India are building brand new fifty year life coal burning power stations at a rate that vastly exceeds the retirement rate of coal power in the already electrified world. This information is easily tracked and calculated using satellite imagery. It is not as if you can build a huge utility power station and start shipping in millions of tons of coal every year to keep it running without leaving a great big footprint easily identified from sat photographs. China has also simultaneously ramped up natural gas imports and internal production for both heating and feedstock for their rapidly growing plastics industry. India is also on this same road but 10-15 years behind China in the process.

IOW Both China and India are accumulating new sources of CO2 release at a rate greatly exceeding the increase of the same machine sources in the already developed countries and they will continue to do so until such time as either they are as developed as say the Japanese and South Koreans who are their close neighbors, or the EU which is higher use, or North America which is highest use. The only thing which will stop them from following this pathway is an existential event such as world wide thermonuclear war that disrupts technological civilization, a large meteor impact, a super volcanic eruption, a CME that last long enough to fry all the electronics not specially protected, a super virus that kills 50% or more of the human population within a short time or name your own disaster. From a CO2 POV both China and India are full of bright, motivated, educated engineers who are respected by their leaders for figuring things out which means post peak of conventional reservoir oil their cultures are much more able to adapt to using heavy, extra heavy and bitumen oils from Canada and Venezuela which add up to something like another 3 TRILLION bbl of liquid resource, and developing countries are able willing and even eager to build a few thousand more coal burning power stations. That doesn't just mean China and India though they will build many more, it means most of South America and Africa and Asia where the average citizen is still living a comparatively low energy lifestyle and electricity is available in cities but not always reliable even there. A lot of people decry the evil American electrical grids but they forget before the rural electrification act and the networking of cities together that came from that program cities were islands of electrical generation that had no place to put excess power, or buy power from a neighbor city when they had to do maintenance and repair.

Ultimately if our current tech level continues another 20 years the CO2 emission rate is going to keep going up the whole time just to get China and India up to Japanese energy use levels, which are pretty much the minimum they will be willing to accept. With just those 2 countries you are talking about one third of the world population total, who are demanding a higher energy lifestyle from their governments. Another half a billion in the remaining low developed remainder of Asia, a half a billion in South America and a full billion in Africa are doing the same thing. Every person in North America and Europe could drop dead right now and world CO2 releases would still take place from all those places and inside a few year they will be releasing more than we do simply because they have such massive population numbers. just giving everyone in the developing world a Moped and the fuel to drive it for a year would massively increase world oil demand and most people want a bigger vehicle than a moped so that is just the tip top of the ice berg of demand we are now colliding with.

These are the reasons I keep saying it is too late to prevent climate change and we need to seriously focus on climate adaptation instead.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14070
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests