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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 24 Apr 2017, 13:20:31

It's still raining in droughty California. Damn southern-highbush blueberries won't ripen. I only have a half-dozen artichokes. Should have way more!

Help! We are going to starve . . . not
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 May 2017, 14:45:30

Florida drought escalates to “extreme” level

http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.c ... eme-level/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 22 May 2017, 18:00:19

South Africa's Western Cape declares drought disaster

South Africa's Western Cape province has declared a drought disaster as it faces its worst water shortage in 113 years.

Provincial leader Helen Zille said water will be harvested by drilling boreholes to serve key points like hospitals in Cape Town.

She also announced plans to use a mobile desalination plant and tap the natural aquifer under Cape Town's Table Mountain.

She also referred to desalination plants as being hailed as a possible alternative, but said there was no way it could be built to scale quickly enough to compensate for such a drought.

Residents have also been urged not to use no more than 100 litres (22 gallons) of water a day.

Southern African nations are reeling from a two-year drought.

Two reservoirs in the Western Cape region are already completely dry according to official statistics.

By Friday the dam levels were already at 21, 6% down from 70% in 2015 at the start of water restrictions. Kaiser said on the brink of winter when heavier rains are expected, meteorologists now warn this winter will be as dry as the previous two.

“Nothing can be taken for granted anymore,” she said and invited delegates to use water sparingly during their stay in the city.

The Karoo and West Coast areas of the Western Cape previously declared drought disasters in 2016, but Monday's announcement extends the scope of those emergency measures to the entire province, the AFP news agency reports.

The UN estimates that over 40 million people have been affected by the drought that was caused by the El Nino climate phenomenon.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201705180429.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 24 May 2017, 07:33:52

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 79016.html
Yemen is getting the four horsemen of the Apocalypse
Death, Plague, War and Famine
God help those people :cry:
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 21:58:29

Florida drought still 'extreme' (second to highest category in the scale).

Drought now spreading into the Dakotas, with a surrounding 'abnormally dry' area that extends into the northwest corner of my state, Minnesota.

Gotta get up early in the morning tomorrow to water my garden! :)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 07:49:57

New weekly map just came out.

Florida got some relief, but the drought in the Dakotas and beyond has deepened and spread.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 11:11:52

India's wells are running dry, fast

For the past 2,500 years, India has managed its water needs by increasing supply.

Prior to industrialisation and the accompanying global "green revolution" in the 1960s, which saw the development of high-yield variety crops using new technologies, India's water availability was plentiful. Households, industries and farmers freely extracted groundwater and dumped untreated waste into waterways without a second thought.

But such practices are now increasingly untenable in this rapidly growing country. Per capita availability of water has been steadily falling for over a decade, dropping from 1,816 cubic metres per person in 2001 to 1,545 cubic metres in 2011.

The decline is projected to deepen in coming years as the population grows. India, which currently has 1.3 billion people, is set to overtake China by 2022 and reach 1.7 billion in 2050.

For nearly 50 years, a misguided groundwater policy has sucked India dry; water tables have declined by an average of one metre every three years in some parts of the Indus basin, turning it into the second most over-stressed aquifer in the world, according to NASA.

Across nearly the whole country, basic sewage management is also lacking. According to the Third World Centre for Water Management, only about 10% of waste water in the country is collected and properly treated. As a result, all water bodies in and around urban centres are seriously polluted.

Even so, residents of New Delhi or Kolkata today use more than twice as much water, on average, than people in Singapore, Leipzig, Barcelona or Zaragoza, according to data compiled by the Third World Research Centre.

The water use in Delhi is 220 litres per capita per day (lpcd), while some European cities boast figures of 95 to 120 lpcd.

Excess consumption is attributable in part to citizen indifference about conserving water after so many years of plentiful supply. Since large swaths of many Indian megacities lack piped supply of clean water, leaks and theft are common. Cities in India lose 40% to 50% due to leakages and non-authorised connections.

And after millennia of exclusive focus on expanding the water supply, the idea of curbing water consumption and increase reuse remains a mostly alien concept in India.

... Water scarcity in Karnataka is aggravated by non-existent water quality management. Its rivers are choked with toxic pollutants, and oil-suffused lakes in Bengaluru, the capital, are reportedly catching fire. Meanwhile, in the northern part of the country, the Ravi-Beas River is causing conflict between Punjab and Haryana states.

In India's water wars, rivers are a resource to be harnessed and extracted for each riparian party's maximum benefit. Very little emphasis has been placed on conserving and protecting existing water sources. And not one inter-state negotiation has prioritised pollution abatement or demand management.

Between rapidly disappearing fresh water, unchecked pollution and so many thirsty citizens, India is facing an impending water crisis unlike anything prior generations have seen. If the nation does not begin aggressively conserving water, the faucets will run soon dry. There is simply no more supply to misuse.

Image


Small climb in mean temperatures linked to far higher chance of deadly heat waves

An increase in mean temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius over half a century may not seem all that serious, but it's enough to have more than doubled the probability of a heat wave killing in excess of 100 people in India, according to researchers at the University of California, Irvine and other institutions.

This could have grim implications for the future, because mean temperatures are projected to rise by 2.2 to 5.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century in the low- and mid-latitude countries of the Asian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa and South America.

Using data gathered by the India Meteorological Department from 1960 to 2009, the UCI-led team analyzed changes in summer temperatures; the frequency, severity and duration of heat waves; and heat-related deaths.

They found that when mean summer temperatures in the South Asia nation went from 27 to 27.5 degrees Celsius, the probability of a heat wave killing more than 100 people grew from 13 percent to 32 percent -- an increase of 146 percent.

In real terms, there were only 43 and 34 heat-related fatalities in 1975 and 1976, respectively, when the mean summer temperature was about 27.4 degrees Celsius. However, at least 1,600 people died from excessive heat in 1998, when the mean summer temperature was higher than 28 degrees Celsius.

The average number of heat wave days over the five-decade study period was 7.3 per year. The most heat wave days occurred in 1998 (18), when 1,655 people died, and 2003 (13), when 1,500 people died.

Image
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/ ... gures-data
Last edited by vox_mundi on Fri 16 Jun 2017, 11:21:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 11:17:12

vox_mundi wrote:India's wells are running dry, fast

For the past 2,500 years, India has managed its water needs by increasing supply.

Prior to industrialisation and the accompanying global "green revolution" in the 1960s, which saw the development of high-yield variety crops using new technologies, India's water availability was plentiful. Households, industries and farmers freely extracted groundwater and dumped untreated waste into waterways without a second thought.

But such practices are now increasingly untenable in this rapidly growing country. Per capita availability of water has been steadily falling for over a decade, dropping from 1,816 cubic metres per person in 2001 to 1,545 cubic metres in 2011.

The decline is projected to deepen in coming years as the population grows. India, which currently has 1.3 billion people, is set to overtake China by 2022 and reach 1.7 billion in 2050.

For nearly 50 years, a misguided groundwater policy has sucked India dry; water tables have declined by an average of one metre every three years in some parts of the Indus basin, turning it into the second most over-stressed aquifer in the world, according to NASA.

Across nearly the whole country, basic sewage management is also lacking. According to the Third World Centre for Water Management, only about 10% of waste water in the country is collected and properly treated. As a result, all water bodies in and around urban centres are seriously polluted.

Even so, residents of New Delhi or Kolkata today use more than twice as much water, on average, than people in Singapore, Leipzig, Barcelona or Zaragoza, according to data compiled by the Third World Research Centre.

The water use in Delhi is 220 litres per capita per day (lpcd), while some European cities boast figures of 95 to 120 lpcd.

Excess consumption is attributable in part to citizen indifference about conserving water after so many years of plentiful supply. Since large swaths of many Indian megacities lack piped supply of clean water, leaks and theft are common. Cities in India lose 40% to 50% due to leakages and non-authorised connections.

And after millennia of exclusive focus on expanding the water supply, the idea of curbing water consumption and increase reuse remains a mostly alien concept in India.

... Water scarcity in Karnataka is aggravated by non-existent water quality management. Its rivers are choked with toxic pollutants, and oil-suffused lakes in Bengaluru, the capital, are reportedly catching fire. Meanwhile, in the northern part of the country, the Ravi-Beas River is causing conflict between Punjab and Haryana states.

In India's water wars, rivers are a resource to be harnessed and extracted for each riparian party's maximum benefit. Very little emphasis has been placed on conserving and protecting existing water sources. And not one inter-state negotiation has prioritised pollution abatement or demand management.

Between rapidly disappearing fresh water, unchecked pollution and so many thirsty citizens, India is facing an impending water crisis unlike anything prior generations have seen. If the nation does not begin aggressively conserving water, the faucets will run soon dry. There is simply no more supply to misuse.

Image

The sequel to overshoot is always die off. An ecological maxim
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 22:04:32

Drought conditions in the Dakotas and Northern Montana are worsening fast, threatening wheat crops.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Bloomberg: “The wheat varieties that trade on U.S. commodity exchanges are diverging sharply in price. Spring wheat is fetching a growing premium to the winter classes grown in the Great Plains and Midwest, with the spread against hard red winter wheat futures reaching a nine-year high. That’s because the spring crop, which still has several weeks left to develop, is in poor shape as drought conditions persist in northern states.”

From Eric Holthaus (sciencebyericholthau newsletter) today:

“There’s a quickly worsening drought right now in the upper Midwest. In just the last week, “extreme” drought expanded from 7.7 percent to 25.1 percent of North Dakota, the hardest-hit state. And next week, a multi-day heat wave is on the way. It’s expected to reach as high as 107 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the Dakotas, more than 20 degrees above normal.

Why does that matter? For one, it might seriously affect this year’s wheat harvest there.

Wheat is humanity’s most important grain food source, the United States is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and the Dakotas and Montana are now the most important wheat growing region of the United States. Wheat prices have already gone up more than 10 percent in just the past few weeks in response to the drought. This year’s American wheat crop is currently rated the worst in 29 years..."
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 08:33:55


As lakes run dry in Chennai, residents are desperate for a few buckets of water.

Desperate search for water

Even before the onset of summer, it was anticipated that there would be great difficulty in maintaining regular water supply to Chennai. When water levels in the four lakes fall, MetroWater usually taps into the Veeranam lake in Cuddalore district to make up for the shortfall. But this large lake has also run dry. This prompted MetroWater officials to extract water from the Wallajah lake, also in Cuddalore. But the use of these rural lakes to meet urban needs has infuriated farmers in the district, who say they are being deprived of their water resources.

“We have lived by this lake for decades,” M Anbazhagan, a farmer, told Scroll.in on May 1. “We were not even consulted or informed about our water being directed to Chennai.”


https://scroll.in/article/841914/as-lak ... s-of-water
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 22:59:44

Drought in High Plains the worst some farmers have ever seen

Drought in North Dakota is laying waste to fields of normally bountiful food and hay crops and searing pastures that typically would be home to multitudes of grazing cattle.

Some longtime farmers and ranchers say it's the worst conditions they've seen in decades — possibly their lifetimes — and simple survival has become their goal as a dry summer drags on without a raincloud in sight...


http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/drou ... s-48656344
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 09:38:31

onlooker wrote:The sequel to overshoot is always die off. An ecological maxim


True as far as it goes, but ecological overshoot is ALWAYS a short lived phenomenon generally of a year or less. In a true overshoot situation the consumer in the ecological equation demands more than the production end of the equation can supply. Reindeer with no predators on an isolated island overshoot and within two years suffer massive population decline from starvation. Bacteria eating sugar jells on a Petri dish have a population crash when the number of cells consuming jell exceed the supply for that generation.

Humans have not exceeded the ability of the ecosystem to sustain our population despite all the predictions to the contrary. Sadly our population has exceeded the level where we eliminate competing ecosystems to grow our own species food, but that is a very different thing.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 11:46:53

Tanada wrote:
onlooker wrote:The sequel to overshoot is always die off. An ecological maxim


True as far as it goes, but ecological overshoot is ALWAYS a short lived phenomenon generally of a year or less. In a true overshoot situation the consumer in the ecological equation demands more than the production end of the equation can supply. Reindeer with no predators on an isolated island overshoot and within two years suffer massive population decline from starvation. Bacteria eating sugar jells on a Petri dish have a population crash when the number of cells consuming jell exceed the supply for that generation.

Humans have not exceeded the ability of the ecosystem to sustain our population despite all the predictions to the contrary. Sadly our population has exceeded the level where we eliminate competing ecosystems to grow our own species food, but that is a very different thing.


On a local level, perhaps, it is a 'short lived phenomenon'. For our global civilization, it could be 30-90 years IMHO. Extinction might not be so quick, but again IMHO, in a thousand years, I doubt if any of us or anyone will have any descendants left at all, and if we did, we are not going to the stars with that level of civilization, so it will only be a matter of time. This single century interval is, of course, completely dependent upon how fast and complete climate change alters our biosphere. We already know how fast mankind is altering the biosphere. It is like dogs peeing on each others waste products. Nature pees last!
(This is completely gut feeling as I am no expert in any of this. So, tell me I'm wrong ;-)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 13:28:24

Good points, jed.

Also, earlier overshoots mostly involved exploiting resources that were readily available to the current population, and recovery of the local ecosystems could sometimes be quite rapid.

But we are exploiting resource from both the ancient past and, one might say, of both the near and distant future, leaving worlds of pain that will remain polluted, denuded of the once-rich diversity of life, and fundamentally altered, in ways that will last a long, long time, possibly forever (in the sense that they may possibly never fully recover before the sun get so big that it swallows up the earth).
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 26 Jul 2017, 10:23:35

Thirsty City: After Months of Water Rationing Nairobi, Kenya May Run Dry

Image

For the team managing Nairobi’s water, the stakes have never been so high. Water-rationing has been going on in Kenya’s capital since 1 January, and supplies might run dry by September. The last two rainy seasons were dismal; more rain is not expected until October and cannot be counted on.

For the city’s 3.4 million residents, the possibility of the entire city running dry is so beyond their control that most bat the thought away and soldier on, storing water in jerry cans when taps flow. But the problem is getting harder to ignore. On 14 July, Nairobi City County declared a cholera outbreak, citing among causes “irregular supply of potable water”. How bad might this get?

For the last 12 months water has been short. The rains in October–December 2016 delivered just 268mm of water compared to about 700mm expected from rainfall patterns in recent years. Then the March–May rains this year were late. When I visited Ndakaini with colleagues from the World Agroforestry Centre in April, the reservoir was just 20% full, an unprecedented low. We gazed at the exposed mud and, looking towards the city, thought “Who down there knows?”

Image
Ndakaini Reservoir - 15th April 2017 https://mapcarta.com/12714174

Finally, the rains came on 1 May, but delivered just 440mm of the 1,000mm expected during the rainy season. Today the Chania and Sasumua, two rivers that supply the city, resemble streams.

The water available to the city has plummeted. Nairobi’s water company is distributing 400,000 cubic metres a day, 150,000 less than it used to and 350,000 less than the city needs; 60% of the population lacks reliable water. Of 78 public boreholes, only 48 work. “Nairobi used to be a swamp but is no longer behaving like one. Our underground rivers have dried up,” says engineer Lucy Njambi Macharia, Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company (NCWSC) environment manager.

Image
https://www.kenyatalk.com/index.php?thr ... dam.39127/
http://www.rcmrd.org/assessing-the-effe ... echnology/


Satellite Images Trigger Payouts for Kenyan Farmers in Grip of Drought

... “There’s a growing recognition that we need to think a bit more proactively and effectively about how we handle drought. This idea of always acting reactively – to request international support – is being considered as ineffective,” he says.

After three years of poor rains, swaths of the country have had their grazing pasture scorched, leaving animals and humans desperate. Government and humanitarian agencies estimate average livestock losses of 40%-60% in Kenya’s worst-hit north-east and coastal areas. In some places, the figure is as high as 80%.

Across the red plains of Marsabit county, more than 500km north of Nairobi, some communities are reaching breaking point. In Balesa, an assortment of makeshift dwellings where the smell of rotting carcasses hangs in the stifling heat, village elders say 200,000 animals have died since October.
“It is a disaster,” says Bonaya Urthe, a schoolteacher and herder who has lost 460 of his 500 goats. “We expect worse. Because animals are dying at this rate, it means that human death is also near.”

... “It’s the worst drought we’ve ever seen,” says Hussain Fofle, conferring with tribal elders who watch over the village well. Their presence helps prevent conflict, since the exhaustion of neighbouring water sources has forced pastoralists to travel from miles around – often across the Ethiopian border – to fill their jerrycans. Last month, clashes between neighbouring tribes over grazingleft at least 10 people dead in Kom, while last month in Laikipia a British safari guide was shot dead when armed herders invaded his ranch.


Armed herders invade Kenya's most important wildlife conservancy

Image

Theft of livestock turns more deadly as herders and raiders become desperate in drought-hit areas and a ragtag militia tries to restore order
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... e-in-kenya
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 11:52:41

Romans are about to go eight hours a day without water

Two thousand years ago, Rome could pride itself on having the world’s most advanced aqueducts, exporting the technology throughout Europe and the Middle East. Today, the city is literally running out of water — thanks in part to its crumbling infrastructure.

One-third of the city’s residents are set to have their water supply cut off for eight hours every day, possibly beginning as early as Friday; different neighborhoods will take turns in sharing the burden. It’s an unprecedented move for a major Italian city, said Giampaolo Attanasio, a public infrastructure expert at the advisory firm Ernst & Young. But it may soon be routine.

"Rome could be just the beginning. If the situation doesn’t improve, other large cities will have to ration water as well," Attanasio said in a telephone interview. "Small towns already have."

The main culprit, experts say, is climate change. In 2017, Italy experienced its second-hottest spring in the past 200 years, according to a report by Italy's Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Spring rainfall decreased by 50 percent compared with the seasonal average, the same report said, and nearby Lake Bracciano, from which the city gets part of its water supply, is drying up at an alarming rate: The water level has fallen by 1 centimeter every single day...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... 2345525c38
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 17:50:42

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-S ... st_30.html

"Loss of Fertile Land Fuels ‘Looming Crisis’ Across Africa"
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Aug 2017, 15:45:25

Study finds human influence in the Amazon's third 1-in-100 year drought since 2005


https://www.skepticalscience.com/human- ... ughts.html
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