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Global economic future news and discussion

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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 21:06:49

Global economy recovering; nowhere near depression: Raghuram Rajan

CHENNAI: Global economy is in a recovery mode which is still weak, but the overall situation is "not anywhere" like the depression of 1930s, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said today.

"I re-emphasise that the global economy is in recovery. It not a strong recovery by any means...recovery is weak but not anywhere that looks like depression (of 1930s)," he said when asked about his views on the world economy and its challenges.

Referring to his last week's speech, the Governor said predicting 'great depression' kind of situation by media was an unwarranted extrapolation of the content of the speech made at London Business School.


indiatimes

World economy: The hidden rocks

Large parts of the world are still struggling with the burden dumped on their shoulders by the financial crisis - even now, eight years after its onset.
And there are dangers not far beneath the surface that could easily cause a new setback.

Even if those risks don't materialise, the outlook for this year, the IMF has said, is economic growth that is only "moderate with uneven prospects across the major countries and regions".

The recovery from the financial crisis and the Great Recession of 2008-09 continues and some areas do seem to be gaining some strength. The US is a notable example and there are signs that the eurozone may be putting the worst behind it.


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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 10 Jul 2015, 16:47:19

Ignore the ‘Faint Whiff of Panic;’ Global Growth Is Accelerating

You wouldn’t know it given the noise from China and Greece, but the world economy is picking up steam.

Morgan Stanley predicted on Thursday global expansion of almost 4 percent in the second half of this year, up from 2.9 percent in the first six months.
The firm says monetary stimulus is taking hold and will even be extended by 18 central banks this year, enough reason for optimism despite it also forecasting a protracted slowdown in China and 75 percent risk of Greece leaving the euro.

“The strength of domestic demand in developed economies will be the key engine of growth,” Chetan Ahya and Elga Bartsch, Morgan Stanley’s co-chief economists, told clients. “We expect the global economy to continue on the path of gradual recovery.”


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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 19 Jul 2015, 17:55:01

Distraction of Greece aside, is all well with the world economy?

The race is on between the US and British central banks to be the first major economy to raise interest rates after a long period of unprecedented monetary generosity.

It won't happen immediately but both Janet Yellen, who chairs the US Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signalled in the past week that higher rates are close.

Not everything in the world economy, however, is as sanguine as the US and British economies would appear to be.


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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 29 Jul 2015, 18:27:31

IMF's Lagarde: World economy is recovering but fragile; Europe improving, China resilient

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde says the world economy is recovering but fragile and "faces some downside risks."

In an online press conference Wednesday, Lagarde described the United States "a strong performer" and China "resilient" despite a recent drop in Chinese stock prices.

She also expressed optimism for the 19 countries that use the euro. The IMF expects the eurozone economy to grow 1.5 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2016; it expanded just 0.8 percent in 2014.

"The euro area is beginning to turn the corner ... We have a more upbeat forecast than we have in a long time," she said.

Lagarde called again for Greece's creditors to reduce its debt burden. She said Greece needs to enact reforms that will make its economy more efficient and expressed confidence the IMF can work with Greece's left-wing government, which has criticized IMF policies.

"There are lots of things that you say (in politics)," she said. "What matters at the end of the day is what you do."

Lagarde noted that a drop in worldwide commodity prices is likely to hurt emerging market economies. And the global economy could face fallout if the Federal Reserve raises short-term U.S. interest rates, which it has kept near zero since late 2008. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said a rate increase is likely this year. Lagarde has urged the Fed to delay the rate hike until 2016, citing the fragility of the global economic recovery.


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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 26 Jul 2017, 13:22:17

So China is going to give the Philippines a little "kiss" to get them to not be obstructionists. Called "greasing the skids" and often used when dealing with the locals:

Reuters - China's foreign minister on Tuesday said he supported the idea of joint energy ventures with the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea, warning that unilateral action could cause problems and damage both sides. Wang Yi, on a two-day visit to Manila, made the remarks after President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday said a partner had been found to develop oil fields and exploration and exploitation would restart this year.

Duterte did not identify the partner. The energy ministry on July 12 said drilling at the Reed Bank, suspended in 2014, might resume before year-end, and the government was preparing to offer new blocks to investors in bidding in December. "In waters where there are overlapping maritime rights and interests, if one party goes for unilateral development, and the other party takes the same action, that might complicate the situation at sea," Wang told a news conference."

More at

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... sputed_Sea
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 26 Jul 2017, 20:43:12

Some interesting history here, including deals made involving Vietnam and U.S. companies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands_dispute
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 13:57:06

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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 15:36:38

Desperate? Hardly. Americans aren't stashing their pennies in savings accounts and CD's, they are investing in the stock market at record pace. Once again Zerohedge posts a nothing-burger of doom.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/02 ... 401ks.aspx

The average American is working harder than ever, and thanks to increasing wages, Americans are contributing more money to their 401(k) plans than since the Great Recession. According to Fidelity Investments, the average worker contributed 8.4% of his or her income to a 401(k) in the fourth quarter. Are your contributions keeping pace?

Contribution rates to defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s depend a great deal on the worker's age and income, but overall, the average American worker is setting aside 8.4% of his or her income in these accounts, which is up from an average employee contribution rate of 8.1% in the first quarter of 2015
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 16:58:58

Cog wrote:Desperate? Hardly. Americans aren't stashing their pennies in savings accounts and CD's, they are investing in the stock market at record pace.[/b]


That's not exactly true. According to Gallup there are now 52% invested and this represents a decline from 2007 when 65% were invested in the stock market .

Just Over Half of Americans Own Stocks, Matching Record Low


http://www.gallup.com/poll/190883/half- ... d-low.aspx

That decline is partially explained by folks like me who redirected their investments out of stocks into other vehicles. In my case that was real estate. I think the recent correction in 2008 revealed to many investors how rigged the system is which spooked some from staying invested in stocks.

I invite any of those interested to listen to a recent freakanomics podcast on the huge increase in passive investing using ETF and index funds and how these have outperformed active investments. Here is the link:

http://freakonomics.com/podcast/stupidest-money/

Cog and others, I will soon have proceeds from the sale of a property. There is no contract yet but I expect to close before the end of the year. My dilemma is what to do with the proceeds and I am wondering if I get back in the stock market and if I do with what financial instruments.

I am wary but not doomerish!
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 17:35:43

Well, truly the entire spectrum right here. Cog optimistic, I am doomerish and Ibon wary. For what it's worth, many portfolios seem intermixed with hedge funds and derivatives of some kind, all of which seem risky to put it mildly. I suggest Ibon you look into the current very risky nature of the stock market before investing in it. Just my two cents.
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 22:43:16

onlooker wrote:Well, truly the entire spectrum right here. Cog optimistic, I am doomerish and Ibon wary. For what it's worth, many portfolios seem intermixed with hedge funds and derivatives of some kind, all of which seem risky to put it mildly. I suggest Ibon you look into the current very risky nature of the stock market before investing in it. Just my two cents.

The idea that all derivatives are risky stems from ignorance. It depends on what they are, and how they are used. For example, stock options are derivatives on the underlying stock. They can be used to make a stock portfolio safer (as a hedge) or used to make wildly unsafe bets with virtually unlimited risk.

The stock market is elevated P/E wise, compared to the historical average. OTOH, interest rates are VERY low compared to the average since 1950. We've been told that the Fed will normalize interest rates any time now for at least 5 years and here we still sit with incredibly low interest rates.

Will that change soon? Even the clowns at the Fed don't seem to know.

Market timing is a game that doesn't work in the long run. Thus the success of passive stock investments over active ones (i.e. stock index funds vs. active mutual funds).

So how is it that you feeling things are "risky" is helpful? How does an investor utilize that? Were your dour predictions helpful the past several years as the market climbed? Do you know what the next several years will bring in the market? Of course not. You only know how you feel.

I have no clue myself. Which is why I diversify and hedge. It's worked for 35+ years, in terms of keeping my portfolio risk at a level I deem acceptable, with very decent returns over time.

What good is cowering in fear in cash, while inflation and taxes leaves you net behind, even after interest?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 01:15:04

You make some good points and seem to be savvy investor OS, however most are probably not. And remember that I think we can all agree that in general economic fundamentals have deteriorated over time even while volatility and speculation has increased in the stock market. And this is even discounting the abundance of more pessimistic analysis of underlying trends. Finally all investors can be potentially one poor investment away from total ruin. So I am speaking not as a hardcore doomer but as simply someone advising caution
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 11:30:26

Well back to a more realistic assessment of what is coming and why anybody who is still in the Stock Market is really foolish.
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 18:12:26

onlooker wrote:Well back to a more realistic assessment of what is coming and why anybody who is still in the Stock Market is really foolish.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/t ... r_07272017
The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

You make a reasonable point, and then the VERY next post you post this and call it "more realistic". So much for my pointing out how timing (short-termism) doesn't work.

As for "financial deterioration", I don't like all the debt either. But we've been doing that in the first world for generations now. I remember reading about all the federal debt in about 1985, with all the appreciation that had occurred in gold/silver, all the inflation that had recently occurred, and feeling rather panicked. In fact, being inexperienced, I bought a fairly good chunk of gold and silver bullion coins as an inflation hedge. Luckily, I matured, got more perspective, and stopped doing that.

I still hold the coins as diversification and an inflation hedge. And over 30 years later, both bonds and stocks have way outperformed that gold and silver. (Call it 1000% for stocks, 300% for gold/silver, and something close to the stock return for long term bonds, including the compounded interest.)

Good luck with that "realism" -- especially with the short term timing aspect.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Global economic future news and discussion

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 20:04:46

This is because I happen to believe the more pessimistic outlooks but even if someone doesn't a downward trajectory seems reasonably certain. But some can cash in in light of this
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