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Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 14:37:25

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/dominoes-begin-to-fall-bhp-chairman-says-20-billion-shale-investment-mistake/
DOMINOES BEGIN TO FALL: BHP Chairman Says $20 Billion Shale Investment “MISTAKE”


You don't think that Drake might have thought the same thing, after having lost all his money in oil and gas development, and living off a sympathy stipend from the state of Pennsylvania? And now, a century and half later, folks who found themselves on the wrong side a risk adjusted value calculation aren't beyond being irritated? The good news being, profitable oil development didn't end because Drake's ultimate failure, and now that we know that shale can produce Ghawar sized volumes in a few years, whether BHP is going to complain they didn't get their risk adjusted value right or not, no one is going to forget that fact.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 14:47:35

Adam, you are not seriously comparing The Colonel to the world's largest mining company? Are you?
Image
The two entities (BHP Billiton and Edwin Drake) used different metrics. Scratch pad versus mainframe analytics. Perhaps you should update yours.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 16:37:14

[quote="pstarr"]Adam, you are not seriously comparing The Colonel to the world's largest mining company? Are you?

If you could read..and more importantly think...there would be no need for that question. I did not stutter when I wrote my post.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 22:38:27

    [quote="AdamB"][quote="pstarr"]Adam, you are not seriously comparing The Colonel to the world's largest mining company? Are you?

    [quote="AdamB"]If you could read..and more importantly think...there would be no need for that question. I did not stutter when I wrote my post.[[quote]
[smilie=22.gif] [smilie=5shocking.gif] [smilie=5obsessed.gif] [smilie=5propeller.gif]

Your formatting has thrown a fit.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 13:05:07

"Immediately suspending operations"...soon a common theme.

http://mississippipowernews.com/2017/06 ... perations/

Southern Company and Mississippi Power today announced the company is immediately suspending start-up and operations activities involving the lignite gasification portion of the Kemper County energy facility. The combined cycle plant has been serving customers with reliable and affordable electricity for almost three years. The facility will continue to operate using natural gas pending the Mississippi Public Service Commission’s decision on future operations. This action is being taken to preserve the safety and health of the workforce and safety of the facility, while still retaining the necessary workforce to operate the combined cycle power plant. “We are committed to ensuring the ongoing focus and safety of employees while we consider the future of the project, including any possible actions that may be taken by the Commission,” said Southern Company Chairman, President and CEO Thomas A. Fanning. “We believe this decision is in the best interests of our employees, customers, investors and all other stakeholders.” Southern Company and Mississippi Power believe this is the appropriate step to manage costs given the economics of the project and the Commission’s intent to establish a settlement docket to address Kemper-related matters including the future operation of the gasifier portion of the project.
EV's are fuel-less automobiles and Thorium Reactors are fuel-less reactors. Perfect.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 18:40:36

StarvingLion wrote:"Immediately suspending operations"...soon a common theme.

http://mississippipowernews.com/2017/06 ... perations/

Southern Company and Mississippi Power today announced the company is immediately suspending start-up and operations activities involving the lignite gasification portion of the Kemper County energy facility.


This one has been in the works for at least a year lion. Those cost overruns are just killer, I'm guessing Short must have been involved in the project management, he confused $$ with BTUs and the result was...as expected. Same thing coming soon to an etp model near you!
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 11:52:48

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-0 ... m=facebook
BofA Stunned By Drop In Gasoline Demand: "Where Is Driving Season?"
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Cog » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 13:21:11

Not necessarily a bad thing that people are driving less. Why drive when you can have someone else deliver every conceivable item you would ever want to purchase? Even Wal-Mart is ramping up its delivery service. Just has some post spikes delivered to the house for free. Saved me from driving around looking for what I wanted. As I recall they came from a distribution hub in Pennsylvania.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 19:54:53

onlooker wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-08/bofa-stunned-drop-gasoline-demand-where-driving-season?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
BofA Stunned By Drop In Gasoline Demand: "Where Is Driving Season?"


Like zerohedge is so stupid they couldn't have answered the question themselves? Beware of assumptions contained in regression models, lest you be surprised by inflection points and look as silly as the etp.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523 ... om-driving
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Cog » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 21:05:55

All of which means peak oil is being pushed further and further into the future.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 21:17:28

Cog wrote:All of which means peak oil is being pushed further and further into the future.


Or it turns out to be the dependent variable in the supply/demand relationship. Just as Amy Jaffe has written.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 00:57:30

My bias is that I wish to see a gradual slowdown in ff use (to extend the "Almost Business As Usual" situation as long as possible), but the Zerohedge article does not seem to fit in with data published for Vehicle Miles Traveled, eg in FRED Economic Data https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRFVOLUSM227NFWA
or
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA

It seems that the US is driving just as much as before.

OK, those charts are up to April, and there could have been some drop in May and June, but that would seem to be too short a time span to indicate a major shift in habits, barring some major event about which I am unaware of.


It seems that the US is driving just as much as before.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 14:59:46

EdwinSm wrote:but the Zerohedge article does not seem to fit in with data published


Why would anyone expect Zerohedge's data to be anything other than misleading?

Oh, right, they peddle doom, hence every other post here has to link to the damn site.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 12 Jul 2017, 21:05:06

EdwinSm wrote:It seems that the US is driving just as much as before.

Even if so, the US vehicle fleet overall is getting more and more efficient, year after year.

Now, add to that the acceleration that trend will get as BEV's and various types of hybrids go very mainstream over the next 5 years or so.

What with BEV's like the model 3 looking to be high volume soon, and the competition looking to follow in a few years or so. Or with more PHEV's with high efficiency. And if that weren't enough, conventional hybrids like the 2018 Camry or the 2017 Accord with 50ish MPG ratings -- formerly primarily Prius territory. And that's without huge additonal costs, or with the Camry, without devoting trunk space to the battery.

I'm sure the doom-oriented zerohedge articles could never be bothered to present a BALANCED look at what might actually be going on over time with oil consumption in the vehicle fleet. After all, that wouldn't look very bleak at all, especially in the moderate term. (It's obviously hard to forecast the longer term).
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 12 Jul 2017, 21:25:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:It seems that the US is driving just as much as before.

Even if so, the US vehicle fleet overall is getting more and more efficient, year after year.

Now, add to that the acceleration that trend will get as BEV's and various types of hybrids go very mainstream over the next 5 years or so.

What with BEV's like the model 3 looking to be high volume soon, and the competition looking to follow in a few years or so. Or with more PHEV's with high efficiency. And if that weren't enough, conventional hybrids like the 2018 Camry or the 2017 Accord with 50ish MPG ratings -- formerly primarily Prius territory. And that's without huge additonal costs, or with the Camry, without devoting trunk space to the battery.

I'm sure the doom-oriented zerohedge articles could never be bothered to present a BALANCED look at what might actually be going on over time with oil consumption in the vehicle fleet. After all, that wouldn't look very bleak at all, especially in the moderate term. (It's obviously hard to forecast the longer term).


Efficiency in capitalist systems leads to more resource and energy consumption.

BEVs require oil for mining, manufacturing, and shipping. In fact, many manufactured goods require the same, together with mechanized agriculture and food production.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 14:30:33

Nice summary over at Sirrocreports re our current predicament. Mastermind has a way with words, hey lol
MASTERMIND | June 18, 2017 at 6:25 am | Reply
We have run out of cheap energy –Oil companies are not replacing reserves – they are shutting down exploration — because the market will not accept 120 oil…. it collapses the economy. So what is going to happen is that the financial system is at some point going to collapse. It is the operating system of the global economy and civilization.

They will do everything they possibly can trying to fend off another 2008 moment — they will print and stimulate and bail and loan…. they will use every bullet in the box … they will throw the empty gun at this — then their will rip off the kitchen sink and throw it too.

I guarantee you they will do ‘whatever it takes’ to hold this moment off for as long as possible.But the moment will arrive — that is guaranteed.

And when it does there will be nothing left to throw — the shops will be looted and emptied — the electricity will go off… the violence and disease and suffering and starvation will follow. Global trade will completely stop — factories will close — spare parts to run the system will not be available — all energy sources will cease to operate — refineries will shut down — oil rigs will go offline — everything – and I mean everything will stop on a dime.Then chaos will reign.

And you will be dead – I will be dead – and the central bankers will be dead


* note to the cornies: nothing whatsoever to do with ETP. Just simple facts.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 20:03:37

ralfy wrote:BEVs require oil for mining, manufacturing, and shipping. In fact, many manufactured goods require the same, together with mechanized agriculture and food production.


Lucky for us that we're in an oil glut.
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 20:41:45

ralfy wrote:Efficiency in capitalist systems leads to more resource and energy consumption.

BEVs require oil for mining, manufacturing, and shipping. In fact, many manufactured goods require the same, together with mechanized agriculture and food production.

There you go again, making the imperfect the enemy of the good.

They wouldn't HAVE to use more, if it were taxed intelligently -- dirty energy that is. Or they wouldn't have to use more if it became hard to get or more expensive.

That's the point. Over time, cleaner, cheaper alternatives have to be better overall.

But no, let's pretend that has to mean doom, since the meme of doomers is constant doom. :roll:
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 07:40:16

We have run out of cheap energy –Oil companies are not replacing reserves – they are shutting down exploration — because the market will not accept 120 oil…. it collapses the economy. So what is going to happen is that the financial system is at some point going to collapse. It is the operating system of the global economy and civilization.


This is particularly significant because when developed existing reserves begin to reach the end of their useful life span Central Banks will also begin to lose control of world debt maintenance. When that happens the result will be a massive wave of cascading defaults throughout the entire monetary financial system.

The world's $250 trillion in outstanding debt is being serviced by the printing of fiat by the Central Banks. There is no longer significant organic growth in the world economy as a result of petroleum's depletion event to service its existing debt. Once existing developed reserves have been extracted the world's economy will enter into a negative growth state. Printing by the Central Banks to service debt beyond the zero growth point will only result in generating inflation that will raise interest rates, and thus total service costs. More money enters the economy than there exists economy; inflation will result.

If one takes note the Central Banks have been very adamant about keeping inflation at 2%. That is the point where they have determined the extent to which their printing is adequate to offset debt maintenance. Anything beyond that becomes self defeating to their policies. Once developed existing reserves have been utilized world wide cascading defaults will become inevitable.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 17 Jul 2017, 10:22:38

Not that it's really important but it just hit me that the screen name "shortonoil" seems a bit off on its timing given that less than a year ago the world was producing more oil then every before in history.

Just a mild chuckle to start the well off. LOL.
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