Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:03:51

ROCKMAN wrote:Syn - Actually Mexico has been exporting coal sporadically since at least 1980. Not much volume until 2011: 267,000 tons.

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?coun ... ph=exports

No idea if expanding with US coal would be practical. But found this:

http://www.sightline.org/2014/05/15/prb ... gh-mexico/

New coal export proposal may signal desperation over Northwest terminals.

"According to an article in a coal trade publication last week, a private firm has announced plans to open a coal export terminal in Guaymas, Mexico. The project aims to ship 30 million tons of coal per year to Asia, sourced from the Powder River Basin and other mining regions in the western US."

{But adds} "In today’s market, coal companies simply can’t ship PRB coal to Asia through Guaymas without losing their shirts. The transportation costs are too high, and the prices that PRB coal would receive in Asia are too low."


Interesting, this is the first time I have heard of Mexico serving as just the export terminal for USA companies, I thought they just shipped out their own coal.

Prices for coal shipped to Asia TODAY might be too low to make a profit but as the ROCKMAN has pointed out a few times these type of big projects usually come with a 15 or 25 year long contract for supply at a minimum price. I know that big relatively new cargo container port in Florida made a lot of long term contracts with Chinese companies before they invested all that money to build the facilities. The plan in Florida is to gather in the traffic that would have gone to Baltimore or New York City that is resulting from the expansion of the Panama Canal which opened last year. Unlike most states on the eastern seaboard Florida was eager to build facilities for the increased traffic, the NIMBY disease seems to get significant pushback from government there.

So if this company is serious about exporting coal from Guyumas I would suspect they have already lined up some long term contracts to cover the costs of getting the project in motion.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13821
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Satori » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:18:39

recommended reading
Coal: A Human History
by Barbara Freese

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/376067.Coal
User avatar
Satori
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon 29 Oct 2007, 02:00:00

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:52:07

Satori wrote:recommended reading
Coal: A Human History
by Barbara Freese

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/376067.Coal


I will think about it for historical perspective, but it was published over 13 years ago and a heck of a lot has happened in world coal trade and use since then.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13821
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 16:30:38

This just out from Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/seven-chart ... ady-peaked

"Seven charts show why the IEA thinks coal investment has already peaked"
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16469
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 09:18:14

No need for 7 charts IMHO. Just one showing the boom in coal prices a few years ago plotted against the drop in NG prices. Economics of coal plant construction seems to drive the dynamics more then any other factor. So the critical question: will the decline in NG investments lead eventually to higher prices and produce a new chart showing a new advantage for coal over NG?

And couldn't let this slip thru: "Sales of electric vehicles – which the IEA partly counts towards the energy efficiency total – also rose strongly, up 38% to 750,000. So did they not count the 84,000,000 new ICE's sold in 2016 when calculating the " energy efficiency total"?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 15:39:01

Probably belongs in the category of more Dutch wind power = more Dutch coal fired power if such a topic was available, but couldn't find it so this looks like the next best place: Coal exports are up and to of all places Europe.

"A report by the EIA indicated that coal exports—for both steam coal, used for power generation, and metallurgical coal, used for refining steel—have increased by 58 percent from Q1 of 2016 to Q1 of 2017. The majority of the increase was in steam coal, which grew by 6 million short tons (MMst).

Big U.S. coal customer: Europe. Out of the approximately 5.108 million short tons of steam coal exported to Europe, the Netherlands consumed approximately 2.530 million short tons—a little less than 50 percent."

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/US-Coal ... rkets.html
jawagord
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon 29 May 2017, 09:49:17

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 00:12:30

jaw - All good data. BTW the reason the Netherlands imports so much coal is because it re-exports much of it to other European countries. In fact much of all commodities imported are ultimately shipped to other countries. From

https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2015/48/m ... -re-export

"Bulk of the Nethertlands transited goods are coal and ore.

The gross weight of transited goods is dominated by coal, ores, petroleum (derivatives) and natural gas, which altogether make up nearly two-thirds of the total weight in transited goods. The vast amounts of coals and ores are characteristic for the transit business."
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 17:49:05

Fossil fuel sees ‘decisive break’ from period of demand growth. Carbon emissions show little or no growth for third year: BP.

It’s the end of an era for coal. Production of the fossil fuel dropped by a record amount in 2016. China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, burned the least coal in six years and use dropped in the U.S to a level last seen in the 1970s.

Coal, the most polluting fuel that was once the world’s fastest growing energy source, has been a target of countries and companies alike as the world begins to work toward the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Consumption is falling as the world’s biggest energy companies promote cleaner-burning natural gas, China’s economy evolves to focus more on services than heavy manufacturing and renewable energy like wind and solar becomes cheaper.

Global consumption dropped 1.7 percent last year compared with an average 1.9 percent yearly increase from 2005 to 2015. “At the heart of this shift are structural, long-term factors,” Dale said. These include “the increasing availability and competitiveness of natural gas and renewable energy, combined with mounting government and societal pressure to shift away from coal towards cleaner, lower-carbon fuels.”

Consumption of coal fell in every continent except Africa. Germany, Europe’s biggest user, consumed 4.3 percent less coal. U.K. demand fell 52.5 percent, the biggest percentage decline among the world’s major economies.

Global carbon emissions, which grew at an annual average rate of about 2.5 percent in the 10 years to 2013, remained stagnant in the past three years. While some of this reflects weaker economic growth, the majority reflects faster declines in “the average amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP.”
World Coal Production Just Had Its Biggest Drop on Record

Global coal consumption declined by 1.7 percent to its lowest level since 2010. Coal consumption has been falling for a couple of reasons. Countries around the world are passing legislation to limit carbon dioxide emissions, and cheap natural gas and renewables are providing economic alternatives to coal. Last year’s decline marks the second consecutive annual decline in coal consumption.

Almost every region of the world saw a decline in coal consumption. In the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries — primarily the world’s developed countries — coal consumption fell by 6.4 percent. In the European Union, it declined by 8.9 percent. U.S. coal consumption continued to fall sharply. The 8.8 percent decline in consumption took U.S. coal demand to its lowest level since 1978. U.S. coal production followed, with a 19.0 percent decline to levels also not seen since the 1970’s. China’s consumption declined last year as well, which accounted for about 50 percent of the global drop in coal consumption.
Graph: Global Coal Consumption

The Natural Gas Boom Shows No Signs Of Slowing

BP 2017 energy outlook is out: BP Energy Outlook 2017
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3925
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 18:08:03

Once the engine of the Industrial Revolution and employer of nearly 1.2 million people, the fall of old king coal in the UK has been precipitous. Only five years ago, the fuel was generating more than 40% of the UK’s electricity, but new analysis by Imperial College London reveals coal supplied just 2% of power in the first half of 2017. More than 1,000 deep mines and nearly 100 surface ones operated until the early 1960s – today there are just 10 tiny mines left. Half a century ago it was the UK’s main source of energy, but last year windfarms provided more power.

This week, it emerged that ministers are disbanding a government and industry body created to secure the long-term future of coal power and mining, in the latest sign of the dirty fuel’s rapid demise. The 11-year-old UK Coal Forum will be wound down because it “no longer serves a purpose”, said Richard Harrington, the new energy minister. Pollution laws and carbon taxes have forced large, ageing plants to close in the past five years, with three major ones closing in 2016 alone. Coal supplies so little power today that in April the National Grid reported the UK had gone the first day without the fossil fuel since Thomas Edison opened the country’s first coal power station at Holborn, London, in 1882.

“It’s unprecedented, the speed at which it declined,” said Iain Staffell of Imperial College. “We’ve never had anything like this. In the 1990s there was the dash for gas, and that probably was a quarter of the speed of this.”
The coal truth: how a major energy source lost its power in Britain

Wind, solar and energy efficiency have replaced the vast majority of power previously provided by the UK’s coal fleet, a new analysis shows. But the gap has not been plugged by natural gas, the UK’s now primary source of electricity. Renewables and energy efficiency* have together covered nearly 85% of the power the UK no longer gets from its coal plants. Though gas power surged in 2016 as coal’s fall accelerated, and may yet rise still in the coming years, it is actually producing significantly less power than it was at the beginning of the decade.In 2010 fossil fuels were producing nearly 100TWh more power than they are now, while renewable generation more than tripled by 2016.
What has replaced coal power in the UK?
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3925
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:08:38

"Global coal consumption declined by 1.7 percent to its lowest level since 2010." Which is great. But that stat also means current coal consumption exceeds any time in the previous 100+ years. The decline is positive but hardly represents the "end of an era". Hopefully as NG eventually declines the alts will be there to pick up the slack. If not the billions of pounds of proven coal reserves will still be waiting.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Article: "The Alternatives—Coal..." by Dale Allen Pfeif

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:28:38

annie wrote:The Alternatives—Coal...by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
new article posted on his blog this morning (27 Nov 2005): link


OMG talk about memories of the good ol' days! Dale Allen was Mike Ruppert's personal geologist and sidekick before they had some kind of falling out.

For those who don't remember, Ruppert was a beat cop turned pamphleteer who got into using doom stories early on to sell website subscriptions. Hell bent on connecting dots that weren't in the same universe, a 9/11 truther, someone who cured his own alcoholism by <wait for it> continuing to drink!, a resident of Bellevue...yes..BELLEVUE, someone who fled the US vowing to never come back and after a little vacation time...came back!!

Yes, that was where Dale Allen got his start. And Dale did this absolutely horrible peak oil primer, and confused the word permeable, with impermeable. Rockman and RocDoc would yuck it up over that one, the best way to describe it to a non-geologist would be to say that it is as fundamental a screwup as an emergency room doctor confusing a human heart with a foot.

But thanks for the trip down memory lane! As far as the "alternatives" in the eyes of a geologist who I'm not sure know the difference between sedimentary and igneous, I'm not sure they matter because one thing Dale never would have done is supposed that peak coal might happen willing, and because it was displaced by plentiful natural gas.

Now I wonder what happened to old Dale, if he ever went out and got any geologic experience? Joined a doomer support group? Wrote any other awful and ignorant peaker articles? Gotta go find out...
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2593
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 09:20:43

Article about coal (and other) shipments; interesting notes are are the shifts allowing Russia to export much more coal to China, and its neighbors, as well as Eastward within Russia as a result of railway modernization in the far East.

You don't modernize rail for something you only plan to ship for a few years. China and Russia will be burning plenty of coal, 50 years from now, shipped on those same rail lines, to generate electricity so middle class Chinese can enjoy the wonders of air conditioning.

According to the plans of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Russia will increase its share in the APR markets from 8% to 15%. That will be facilitated with the certification of Russian coal in China. In the result, more than a half of Russia’s export coal will flow to the APR markets.


http://en.portnews.ru/comments/2364/
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6125
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 11:25:31

Lawrence Solomon wrote:Singing the praises of coal — the virtuous stone that liberated humanity

Lawrence Solomon: Among coal’s virtues is its small ecological footprint, in startling contrast to the clodhoppers that are renewable energy

Oil, gas, and hydroelectricity. Important though they’ve been to the economic life of mankind, none can hold a candle to coal, the most consequential energy source of all. This virtuous fuel — the Romans called it “the best stone in Britain” for its polished beauty when carved into jewelry — did more than power the Industrial Revolution, bringing unprecedented prosperity. Coal also brought enormous social and environmental blessings.

Centuries before the Industrial Revolution, during the reign of Elizabeth I, England was being rapidly deforested by the growing demand for wood fuel — the iron industry had an insatiable desire for charcoal, the navy warned the wood shortage in ship building posed a national security threat, London’s breweries alone required 20,000 wagon loads a year and the poor were especially hard hit, with the wood needed to cook and keep warm increasing in cost at rates far exceeding inflation. Dozens of commissions confirmed the threat to the nation’s forests and even in rural areas the law called for those who stole wood to be “whipped till they bleed well.” Hardships for the poor were especially cruel because England was then in the grips of the Little Ice Age, which hurt the economy as well as increasing the need for home heating.

Coal then came to the rescue, providing heat and warm meals for those who would otherwise have died while slowing the ruinous rate of deforestation the way laws — including a three-mile-wide green belt around London — never could. By the end of Elizabeth’s reign, coal had become England’s main source of fuel.

Coal, though then a dirty fuel, was liberating humanity, and being appreciated for it. As put in the mid 19th century by the great American poet, Ralph Waldo Emerson, “Every basket is power and civilization. For coal is a portable climate. It carries the heat of the tropics to Labrador and the polar circle; and it is the means of transporting itself whithersoever it is wanted. Watt and Stephenson [inventors of the steam engine and locomotive] whispered in the ear of mankind their secret, that a half-ounce of coal will draw two tons a mile, and coal carries coal, by rail and by boat, to make Canada as warm as Calcutta; and with its comfort brings its industrial power.”

Coal would soon electrify the Western world, raising literacy, standards of living and the human condition. Its one great drawback — soot and other harmful emissions — would also be eliminated as harmful levels of mercury, nitrous and sulfurous oxides were abated. Modern coal plants today emit little aside from carbon dioxide, a tasteless, odourless, and colourless gas that is known as “Nature’s fertilizer” — thanks to the ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide, the world’s forests and other biota are flush to overflowing, making Planet Earth the greenest in recorded history.

Among coal’s virtues is its small ecological footprint, in startling contrast to the clodhoppers that are renewable energy. Meeting the world’s energy needs with biofuels would require three times the land area now needed for farming. The land hogs that are solar and wind farms likewise consume far more land than coal mines. And massive hydro dams have been the most ruinous of all the renewables, having flooded the agriculturally and aquaculturally rich river valleys that housed and sustained millions of farmers and fishermen.

Even today, with the world awash in oil and gas, coal continues to shine. Third world countries — China and India especially, but increasingly those in Africa, too — recognize low-cost coal as the key to raising hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest out of poverty, and are building coal plants at a supercharged rate. Coal is so cost-effective that — in a twist on the coals to Newcastle meme — the Middle East is also turning to coal. Coal is also the world’s go-to fuel when disaster strikes — when nuclear plants in Japan and France failed them, dependable coal was there to save the day.

With the Paris climate accord in shambles, the jig is up for renewable energy and nuclear, sham industries that soon will no longer be able to transfer taxpayer subsidies into shareholder pockets. These ephemerals are now going up in smoke, declaring bankruptcy in their hundreds. In their stead coal giants like Peabody, previously bankrupted by Obama, have risen from the ashes, along with the U.S. coal mining industry. Virtue is overcoming the venal in the energy world, to the good of the needy, of the environment, and of society as a whole.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Toronto-based Energy Probe


http://business.financialpost.com/opini ... d-humanity
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13821
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 13:26:14

Not sure I would tag coal as virtuous. But with respect to the US it is very, very abundant. Decades down the road, when NG becomes less available and/or too expensive, if the renewables can't supply our electricity needs, is there any doubt we won't turn to coal? Texas, even with our world class renewable energy, isn't abandoning coal today: Texas is #1 in coal generated electricity and produces 3X as much as #2 Indiana.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 19:15:30

Tanada wrote:Among coal’s virtues is its small ecological footprint, in startling contrast to the clodhoppers that are renewable energy. Meeting the world’s energy needs with biofuels would require three times the land area now needed for farming. The land hogs that are solar and wind farms likewise consume far more land than coal mines.
Incorrect. 8.4 million acres of land have been surface mined for coal in the US alone. To continue current rates of surface mining for the next 60 years would require an additional 7 million acres. This is more land area than to power the entire US with solar alone. Wind's land requirement is even smaller. Coal actually has a larger land footprint than solar or wind. Further, solar can be mounted on rooftops, wind turbines can be mixed with farmland or ranches, etc, further curtailing their land requirement. Finally, trying to use an argument that coal requires less land, which is a BS argument to begin with, misses the huge elephant in the room that coal is the absolute dirtiest form of power generation there is.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3925
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 21:11:41

k - As I said: if renewables are meeting the electricity demand no problem. If not coal will still be there. Only time will tell. But it will be the consumers who make the choice. Not politicians here or in Europe.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 23:29:54

You can say that again. Trump is trying to bring coal back. The utilities didn't bite and are continuing to close coal plants. Cheaper alternatives and expectations of future carbon taxes are turning US utilities off to coal.

Executives at the nation’s largest electric utilities say Mr. Trump’s announcement and the eventual fate of the regulations known as the Clean Power Plan make little difference to them. They still plan to retire coal plants — although perhaps at a slightly slower pace — and, more significant, they have no plans to build new ones.

“For us, it really doesn’t change anything,” said Jeff Burleson, vice president of system planning at Southern Company, an Atlanta-based utility that provides electricity to 44 million people across the Southeast, of the prospective rollback of the Clean Power Plan. “Whatever happens in the near term in the current administration doesn’t affect our long-term planning for future generation.” As do most electric utilities, Southern Company plans its investment on a 50-year horizon, the expected life span of a new power plant. Its planners do not see coal as economically viable in that time frame.

With or without the Clean Power Plan, power companies say, coal is simply no longer the fuel of choice for keeping the lights on in America — and they do not expect it to make a comeback. Cheaper natural gas and renewable sources like wind and solar power have replaced it. “We’ll continue to grow the renewables portion of our business and meanwhile rely on natural gas, but we don’t see investing in new coal.”

“This is not an environmentally driven trend we are seeing,” said Jairo Chung, an associate vice president at Moody’s Investors Service. “What we are seeing now is in the interior of the U.S., where wind is very rich, states and utilities are pushing ahead in investing in it — not because of regulation or environmental concerns, but because it’s economically driven.”

Natural gas produces just half as much planet-warming carbon dioxide pollution as coal — an additional benefit, electricity generators say, as they invest in the new power generators that will provide electricity to America for the next half-century. This decision is also driven by economics. Electric company executives are including in their long-term profit-and-loss calculations an expectation that the federal government will eventually tax or regulate carbon dioxide pollution.

Several electric utilities, including Southern Company of Atlanta, have already incorporated an anticipated carbon tax into their business models, plugging in estimated fees of $10 to $40 per ton of carbon dioxide pollution. “We don’t know exactly what the future holds, but we hold a presumption that there will be a price on carbon on the horizon, either from legislation or regulation.”

While Mr. Trump tries to roll back the rules today, executives of electric power generators assume that his successors will eventually reinstate them in some form. Essentially, they say, Mr. Trump’s moves are a bump on the road to a future in which the government constrains climate-warming pollution and consumers increasingly demand cleaner power.

“This is our long-term view — unless the entire issue of climate change goes away,” he said. “And we don’t expect that to happen.”
Coal Is on the Way Out at Electric Utilities, No Matter What Trump Says
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3925
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 27 Aug 2017, 01:18:27

kublikhan wrote:You can say that again. Trump is trying to bring coal back. The utilities didn't bite and are continuing to close coal plants. Cheaper alternatives and expectations of future carbon taxes are turning US utilities off to coal.

Executives at the nation’s largest electric utilities say Mr. Trump’s announcement and the eventual fate of the regulations known as the Clean Power Plan make little difference to them. They still plan to retire coal plants — although perhaps at a slightly slower pace — and, more significant, they have no plans to build new ones.

“For us, it really doesn’t change anything,” said Jeff Burleson, vice president of system planning at Southern Company, an Atlanta-based utility that provides electricity to 44 million people across the Southeast, of the prospective rollback of the Clean Power Plan. “Whatever happens in the near term in the current administration doesn’t affect our long-term planning for future generation.” As do most electric utilities, Southern Company plans its investment on a 50-year horizon, the expected life span of a new power plant. Its planners do not see coal as economically viable in that time frame.

With or without the Clean Power Plan, power companies say, coal is simply no longer the fuel of choice for keeping the lights on in America — and they do not expect it to make a comeback. Cheaper natural gas and renewable sources like wind and solar power have replaced it. “We’ll continue to grow the renewables portion of our business and meanwhile rely on natural gas, but we don’t see investing in new coal.”

“This is not an environmentally driven trend we are seeing,” said Jairo Chung, an associate vice president at Moody’s Investors Service. “What we are seeing now is in the interior of the U.S., where wind is very rich, states and utilities are pushing ahead in investing in it — not because of regulation or environmental concerns, but because it’s economically driven.”

Natural gas produces just half as much planet-warming carbon dioxide pollution as coal — an additional benefit, electricity generators say, as they invest in the new power generators that will provide electricity to America for the next half-century. This decision is also driven by economics. Electric company executives are including in their long-term profit-and-loss calculations an expectation that the federal government will eventually tax or regulate carbon dioxide pollution.

Several electric utilities, including Southern Company of Atlanta, have already incorporated an anticipated carbon tax into their business models, plugging in estimated fees of $10 to $40 per ton of carbon dioxide pollution. “We don’t know exactly what the future holds, but we hold a presumption that there will be a price on carbon on the horizon, either from legislation or regulation.”

While Mr. Trump tries to roll back the rules today, executives of electric power generators assume that his successors will eventually reinstate them in some form. Essentially, they say, Mr. Trump’s moves are a bump on the road to a future in which the government constrains climate-warming pollution and consumers increasingly demand cleaner power.

“This is our long-term view — unless the entire issue of climate change goes away,” he said. “And we don’t expect that to happen.”
Coal Is on the Way Out at Electric Utilities, No Matter What Trump Says



Greenwashing BS. On the world stage the USA is a small portion of the world current and future coal market. Currently in the USA Natural Gas is cheap, thanks to the Fracking industry, but the same metric does not hold true in China, India, Turkey or most of the rest of the world where the electric grids are still currently in a rapid growth phase.

To continue pretending the USA is the world is parochial in the extreme, not to mention foolishly narrow minded.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13821
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 27 Aug 2017, 11:41:51

"On the world stage the USA is a small portion of the world current and future coal market." Hmm: the US is the second biggest coal consumer on the planet. At lot less then #1 China but more the 4X as much as #3 Japan.

IMO regulations, who is the POTUS (remember coal production from federal leases were higher under President Obama then any other POTUS in history), Paris Climate Accord, etc. won't be the determining factor. It will be economics. I guarentee you: if NG gets above $8/mcf Texas will switch back to burning as much coal as possible. And if NG prices stay high long enough you'll start hearing discussions about building new coal plants in areas where the haven't been built for decades.

As I said earlier if the renewables don't ramp up fast enough we'll still have a lot of coal reserves as we run out of affordable NG.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10448
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 27 Aug 2017, 13:24:06

Tanada wrote:Greenwashing BS. On the world stage the USA is a small portion of the world current and future coal market. Currently in the USA Natural Gas is cheap, thanks to the Fracking industry, but the same metric does not hold true in China, India, Turkey or most of the rest of the world where the electric grids are still currently in a rapid growth phase.

To continue pretending the USA is the world is parochial in the extreme, not to mention foolishly narrow minded.
What was greenwashing BS was that original article you posted Tanada. I agree with you that coal is still a big deal on the world stage and even here in the US. But to praise coal as "virtuous" and with a small "ecological footprint" is simply greenwashing BS.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3925
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests