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Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:15:39

.
@ dolanbaker , I mentioned the first C 25 sunspot a bit further up ,
the source is from the official body , it's very scientific ,
it is from the new cycle because the polarity is inverted
the only query is that it appeared at quite a low latitude ,
usually a few form close to the solar poles and after a few years there is more and more toward the equator
their frequency is seen in the "butterfly diagram "
http://k9la.us/Butterfly_Diagrams_and_Solar_Minimum.pdf
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 18:35:41

sparky wrote:.
@ dolanbaker , I mentioned the first C 25 sunspot a bit further up ,
the source is from the official body , it's very scientific ,
it is from the new cycle because the polarity is inverted
the only query is that it appeared at quite a low latitude ,
usually a few form close to the solar poles and after a few years there is more and more toward the equator
their frequency is seen in the "butterfly diagram "
http://k9la.us/Butterfly_Diagrams_and_Solar_Minimum.pdf

Thanks I knew I'd seen it somewhere.
It's that low latitude that that increases the risk of it being a false positive, otherwise cycle 25 could end up seriously overlapping 24.

On the other hand maybe having two opposing cycles together may be the cause of the low sunspot count in the first place, one cancelling out the other.

A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 07:16:26

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"A thought that provokes far more question that I could possibly answer."
You are in good company
The scientist are pretty sure they can locate the sun ,
there are some good observations of its surface and some hypothesis of its interior
as for its precise working , it's a bit of a dog breakfast
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 11:30:01

Tanada wrote:All these projections that Cycle 25 will be as weak as 24 are unwarranted IMO.

They are based on computer models that use the current cycle as if it were a baseline, or so it appears. If you look at the available history going back to the 1600's there was a 100 year low cycle at the start of the 19th, 20th, and now 21st century. The next cycle after each of those low cycles however was much closer to an 'average' cycle. Looking at this I believe cycle 25 will be close to average no matter what the computer models are saying.


The problem is not the use of computer models. The problem is the lack of governing dynamical equations for the Sun that can be used to simulate its evolution. It is a highly nonlinear MHD plasma system. We cannot measure its interior since it is opaque to EM radiation (worse than the electrolytic oceans on Earth) and we do not understand the various dynamical scales at work in this system so we can't even start to approximate. On Earth the Navier-Stokes equations do a very good job of describing the atmospheric and ocean systems. We can readily simulate synoptic and mesoscale structures that are important for the atmospheric evolution. In the case of the oceans we have a problem of resolving the small eddy scale which exerts a dominating influence on the dynamics. But high resolution ocean models are available. Nothing of sort exists for the Sun and we only have empirical, aka black box statistical, models.
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 06:43:13

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The warmists are going to love this ,
as a upstanding proponent of the Solar influence on climate ,
and having some feeble claims to intellectual honesty .
this must be said ,
the relationship between total solar irradiance and the Earth surface temperature is very weak
the present low sunspot count has not any correlation with present day global temperature .

it doesn't affect my opinion that warmists have the scientific integrity of chickens fed on rubbish
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Jul 2017, 13:11:08

Thanks for the concession, spark.

Do you have any new theories you care to share with us, or any correlations you are tracking these days. One thing I have always been impressed with about you is that if you see that a correlation you have hypothesized does not pan out, you are ready to admit it, rather than holding on to it in spite of the evidence.

Was there something in particular that convinced you on this one?
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 09:43:36

Using more than a half-century of observations, Japanese astronomers have discovered that the microwaves coming from the sun at the minimums of the past five solar cycles have been the same each time, despite large differences in the maximums of the cycles.

In Japan, continuous four-frequency solar microwave observations (1, 2, 3.75 and 9.4 GHz) began in 1957 at the Toyokawa Branch of the Research Institute of Atmospherics, Nagoya University. In 1994, the telescopes were relocated to NAOJ Nobeyama Campus, where they have continued observations up to the present.

A research group led by Masumi Shimojo, assistant professor at NAOJ Chile Observatory, including members from Nagoya University, Kyoto University, and Ibaraki University, analyzed the more than 60 years of solar microwave data from these telescopes. They found that microwave intensities and spectra at the minimums of the latest five cycles were the same every time. In contrast, during the periods of maximum solar activity, both the intensity and spectrum varied from cycle to cycle.

Masumi Shimojo says, "Other than sunspot observations, uniform long-term observations are rare in solar astronomy. It is very meaningful to discover a trend extending beyond a single solar cycle. This is an important step in understanding the creation and amplification of solar magnetic fields, which generate sunspots and other solar activity."

The sun goes through a cycle of active and quiet periods approximately once every 11 years. This "solar cycle" is often associated with the number of sunspots, but there are other types of solar activity, as well. So simply counting the number of sunspots is insufficient to understand the solar activity conditions.

Microwaves are another indicator of solar activity. Microwaves, unlike sunspots, can be observed on cloudy days. Also, monitoring multiple frequencies of microwaves makes it possible to calculate the relative strength at each frequency (this is called the spectrum).


Solar Minimum
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Re: Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 14:04:48

Maybe the microwave energy levels are an indicator of temperatures within the sun's core, which appears to be very stable.
But as far as sunspots go, they're going as predicted as we approach the next minimum.

Interesting to note that the rate of decline in recorded sunspots between 2015 to 2017 is the same as that of 2002 to 2004 but starting from a far lower level, could that indicate a long period of zero sunspots during the next minimum.

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