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Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 20:28:07

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the-global-oil-gas-industry-is-cannibalizing-itself-to-stay-alive/
Debt ballooning does not seem very profitable to me


Crappy references are crappy references. We're waiting for Rocco to figure out if the EIA graphic took into account the depreciation issues mentioned by RocDoc. Charts from the EIA have some credibility, dime a dozen gold bug websites trying to sell a point or pitch an advocacy aren't worth any more than bell shaped curves in peak oil land.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 08:13:37

Adam, thank you so much for your continued repeated objections.
May I suggest you avoid using the word "crappy", it somehow cheapens the integrity of your opinion.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 11:32:19

The oil industry issues $1T in corporate bonds to create the shale oil and gas industry.

The pension funds buy those bonds.

The shale oil and gas industry cannot pay back the debt and seeks bankruptcy protection. The debt is cleared and the pension funds take the hit.

The government kills health care and medicin.

Pensioner without money, health care and medicin die.

Young Americans inherit the shale oil and gas industry cleared from debt and a nation cleared from pensioners.

The shale industry and America survives ?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 12:01:35

Yoshua wrote:The oil industry issues $1T in corporate bonds to create the shale oil and gas industry.

The pension funds buy those bonds.

The shale oil and gas industry cannot pay back the debt and seeks bankruptcy protection. The debt is cleared and the pension funds take the hit.

The government kills health care and medicin.

Pensioner without money, health care and medicin die.

Young Americans inherit the shale oil and gas industry cleared from debt and a nation cleared from pensioners.

The shale industry and America survives ?

Do you EVER point to credible sources when you post such opinions? To show that they have ANY more credibility than your opinion, sans meaningful economic knowledge?


To give you some clues about the nature of pensions to most pensioners in the first world:

1). Pensions almost always hold a variety of investments. They won't go "bankrupt" even if one investment does poorly. They will just show a somewhat lower return. (Example, they tend to hold stocks and bonds in a LOT of different industries).

2). Taking a "hit" on one type of bond doesn't mean the pensioners are "without money". See point 1.

3). The government deciding to "kill" health care and "medicin" [sic] means what? (Do you mean ending Medicare type programs? Do you mean killing all the doctors and burning down the hospitals? What flavor of doom are you peddling here?) And WHAT logical connection does this have to do with pensions? (Listing random points of doom doesn't make you credible).

4). Most pensioners don't have only their pension. Virtually all old pensioners who worked at least 10 years in the US have Social Security and Medicine. Most pensioners have some other savings/investments, even if its not enough to make them "comfortable". For example, I get about 15% of my income from my small IBM pension. Would I be annoyed if that suddenly went away? Yes. (At IBM, for whatever fraud caused that). Would I starve or even have meaningful problems from that? No. Would that impact Social Security or Medicare? No.

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/pla ... ent-income

...

The idea that a hit to the oil/gas industry is going to make a meaningful DENT in the finances of pensioners in first world countries is tenuous at best. The idea it will cause them to be "without money" and "die" is completely ludicrous, But thanks for playing. Have you considered applying for a job at zerohedge?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 12:30:42

Midnight Oil wrote:Adam, thank you so much for your continued repeated objections.
May I suggest you avoid using the word "crappy", it somehow cheapens the integrity of your opinion.


I can use words that are an improvement over "crappy". :-D

I might even on occasion wax poetic on the ridiculous nature of opinions versed in faux fact, oil-ignorance and downright incoherent thinking...but I'm afraid that one special snowflake or another might short circuit, and run off crying to their safe space where they aren't confronted by the consequences of their inability to read, learn, understand, etc etc.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 12:39:25

Yoshua wrote:The oil industry issues $1T in corporate bonds to create the shale oil and gas industry.


The natural gas shale industry was created in 1825, and it didn't require $1T. Do try and keep up. The shale oil industry arguably began somewhere between 1860 and 1880, according to the Appalachian Basin Gas Atlas and the USGS. Would you like a page reference, or do you just specialize in saying things that aren't true because you can't be bothered to look it up in a nice reference work first? I happen to know one of the authors of the article as well, but I can't say that I'd hand out their number to folks who can't be bothered to do their research in the first place. They didn't need $1T either. Do try and keep up. And the last 20 shale oil and gas completions and recompletions I did were quite nicely profitable back when oil was $20/bbl and gas $2/mcf, and I didn't borrow a dime for any of them. So you can't be bothered with keeping up, how about you just run off and LEARN something prior to making stuff up?

Yoshua wrote:The pension funds buy those bonds.


I didn't issue any bonds when doing shale work, and that was more than a century after E&P's were producing shale oil and gas. Where do you get this nonsense? You haven't been training at the Stoner Instructional Complex like pstarr have you?

Yoshua wrote:
The shale oil and gas industry cannot pay back the debt and seeks bankruptcy protection.


I never had debt to pay back, it was how you survived a worse downturn then now, we referred to it as "bootstrapping". And companies go bankrupt all the time, some of us wait around for exactly that to happen. Are you insinuating you want in on the action? It can be quite profitable in a low price environment...the only kind I happen to be familiar with, in all honesty.

Yoshua wrote:The debt is cleared and the pension funds take the hit.


I've participated in and organized the purchase of 5 companies from bankruptcy, 2 public. The court didn't have to issue checks to pension funds because they weren't involved.

Yoshua wrote:The shale industry and America survives ?


It has for more than 150 years now, so reason to think it will stop, as long as the likes of you and Pstarr continue happily consuming petrochemicals.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 12:43:29

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Do you EVER point to credible sources when you post such opinions? To show that they have ANY more credibility than your opinion, sans meaningful economic knowledge?


Apparently not. It isn't as though the Appalachian Gas Atlas is top secret. More likely he just can't be bothered with understanding the industry, and makes all the standard mistakes, just because he learned of it a week ago, it must be new!

Picking up a single history book would be an improvement, reference materials like the Appalachian gas atlas are even better. But really....as I have maintained before, zealots aren't interested in learning stuff, only rationalizing previously held opinions.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The idea that a hit to the oil/gas industry is going to make a meaningful DENT in the finances of pensioners in first world countries is tenuous at best. The idea it will cause them to be "without money" and "die" is completely ludicrous, But thanks for playing. Have you considered applying for a job at zerohedge?


How big of a dent did the collapse of the oil and gas industry put in pensions? There is no need to speculate here, what happened now happened much worse in 1986...just go back and review all the bankrupt pension funds from then and we'll know what effect the industry has on pensions.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 15:37:53

I made my most optimistic comment since a long time but that wasn't taken well either.

A young slimmed down American population with a vital oil and gas industry sounds good.

I should perhaps have added to that a default on government debt. Perhaps a total reset and clearing of all US debt. A total restart of the economy. All tangible assets would still remain intact. And then just restarting the engine.

Shale gas counts for two thirds of Us nat gas production today and shale oil for half of Us oil production. The shale industry is brand new in this size.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 17:32:10

"Chevron and others say they will soon achieve something that has proven surprisingly elusive for their smaller peers: turning a profit. The shale-drilling renaissance rocked global markets and helped send crude prices into a prolonged slump. What it didn't do was bring in much cash. Since 2011, the largest 30 independent U.S. shale producers spent an average of nearly $1.33 for every $1 they made drilling wells, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.
In the past two years, those 30 have lost $130 billion."

"Chevron has brought its production costs in the Permian Basin down 30% since 2015 to below $20 a barrel. It says its operations will generate free cash flow by 2020, far faster than typical big oil projects."

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/201 ... e-wsj.html

So according to this article the oil companies operating at the Permian are losing money. The majors will now turn that trend ?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 18:08:17

Yoshua wrote:Shale gas counts for two thirds of Us nat gas production today and shale oil for half of Us oil production. The shale industry is brand new in this size.


The shale gas industry was once 100% of US natural gas production, stayed that way longer than it has been >50% nowadays, so no, shale gas today hasn't reached that point yet. I haven't calculated the shale oil % of US production prior to 1880 yet, but it wasn't 100%, not sure if it reached 50%, so I don't have the information to substantiate or refute your assertion in that regard.

You really need to have checked the basics, prior to pretending you had a fact by the tail. I did mention the appropriate reference...let me guess....you don't have any real reference material laying around to check, so you just thought you would wing it?

How about an easy one....in what decade was the largest known accumulation of natural gas...a shale gas field? A clue! Itwas before you were born..you know...back when shale gas in this field was the modern equivalent of the North Dome/ South Pars field.

Can you imagine? Shale gas fields being the largest in the world? Do you think people are just ignorant when understanding the shale industry and the resources involved therein, or do you just get your information from websites and faux news sites?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby sparky » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 20:40:09

.
" I might even on occasion wax poetic on the ridiculous nature of opinions versed in faux fact"
Oh please do so !
let the bloom of your wit rejoice our heart
let the light of reason disperse the flung muck of tricksters
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 22:51:14

sparky wrote:.
let the light of reason disperse the flung muck of tricksters


It isn't tricksters involved here.

The more accurate characterization would be, how does one convince a religious missionary that their religion isn't THE religion?

Logic,science, the light of reason, none of those work against true believers.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 04:18:00

The Appalachian basin has produced coal, oil and nat gas since 1850's. Small amounts of shale gas has been produced as well, not enough for an industrialized economy. The shale gas production really started in ernest in the 2000's.


https://www.bing.com/images/search?view ... ajaxhist=0
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby marmico » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 08:24:24

Ya, and don't you just luv Artie "ASPO" Berman from May, 2012, when Artie was such a cool cat (well actually there were some calling him a third tier geologist at the time) calling out the shale natural gas retirement party. Do you get paid full salary for your 6th year in retirement, Artie?

http://www.aspo2012.at/wp-content/uploa ... po2012.pdf

The Mighty Marcellus was so tiny in those days. And the Unbelievable Utica is smoking the Barnett.

Where is David Hughes? He must must be cowering in Heinberg's skirt at the Post Carbon Institute.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 09:17:01

"Where is David Hughes?"

Suggest you read his July 21, 2015 short piece "A Look at West Virginia University Assessment ..." where he attempts to shoot down the multi year, extensive collaboration amongst a dozen universities, government agencies, geological institutions on the Utica's potential with his typically glib, wildly inaccurate "analysis". (The comments following the article are absolutely pricless).

As a followup to Adam's observation (my description) the vast majority of folks on these peak oil sites are earnest, sincere, bright individuals who accept much of the input from supposed "experts" largely due to the fact that the presented info validates already -held suppositions on their - collective - part.
A simple glancing back over the past 4 to 8 years should consistently show how profoundly wrong this "peak" stance has been.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 09:45:10

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-2 ... xport-boom

Just keep buying the KoolAid, that's all that counts!

click to enlarge

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby marmico » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 09:49:51

Did you find the missing 8.4 million barrels per day of gasoline yet, Bozo? And that is only in the US.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 10:00:39

A simple glancing back over the past 4 to 8 years should consistently show how profoundly wrong this "peak" stance has been.-Quite the contrary. 2008 and $147 dollar oil showed how vulnerable the consumer side of equation was and how conventional peak had been reached (2005), further evidence provided by the full scale commitment to unconventional sources. Subsequently the steadily increasing indebtedness of the Oil Industry as the price dropped too low for producers profitability yet still too high for demand to match supply. Furthermore, the commitment of US to intense military intervention in ME (2003 onward) is a sign of the need to expand energy resources, though obfuscated by the mantra of War on Terror. So peak oil dynamics is alive and well. Expect more dramatic signs of it in the near future
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 10:15:12

In the Appalachian basin small amounts of shale gas was produced from vertical wells in the old days. The production increase came with horizontal wells and fracking. The production today has increased. The production is faster. The production loses more money at a faster rate. The burn rate of money is all that counts today. The energy to keep the Ponzi going is imported with Petrodollars.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 10:24:42

onlooker wrote:A simple glancing back over the past 4 to 8 years should consistently show how profoundly wrong this "peak" stance has been.-Quite the contrary. 2008 and $147 dollar oil showed how vulnerable the consumer side of equation was and how conventional peak had been reached (2005), further evidence provided by the full scale commitment to unconventional sources. Subsequently the steadily increasing indebtedness of the Oil Industry as the price dropped too low for producers profitability yet still too high for demand to match supply. Furthermore, the commitment of US to intense military intervention in ME (2003 onward) is a sign of the need to expand energy resources, though obfuscated by the mantra of War on Terror. So peak oil dynamics is alive and well. Expect more dramatic signs of it in the near future
should be in grammar school text books. Succinct and to the point. Bears repeating one million times if necessary to drown out the yapping of the oil industry playa's and interns.
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