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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 06:31:17

Here's a nice piece on why increased GHG concentrations plus albedo shift make such a powerful combination:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_An ... t_gas.html
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:02:50

Here you have the crux of the problem, most people believe the climate is changing. Half of them believe humans have had little or no impact on that change and half think humans are responsible. The important note is however, even those who believe humans are responsible do not expect they will be personally effected by adverse climate change. If you don't believe you are causing climate change then there is nothing to worry about. If you believe you are responsible for climate change but the changes won't harm you or those near you it is also something most find not worth worrying about. This explains quite well why every piece of climate regulation/treaty/law that is nothing but lip service easily passes, but those acts that would force real change get voted down. Seventy, maybe eighty percent believe they will not be harmed by climate change, so why go to the expense or inconvenience of doing something pro-active?

Americans’ views on global warming provide something of a twist on the classic NIMBY phenomenon. That’s according to a recent survey conducted by Yale University’s Program on Climate Change Communication. It found that residents of every county in the U.S., to greater or lesser degrees, believe that global warming is occurring. But when it comes to whether humans are responsible for it, unanimity is nowhere to be found. And although slightly more than half of Americans are worried about global warming, pretty much everyone subscribes to the “Not In My Back Yard” school of thought when asked if it will affect them. The exceptions are in pockets of southern California, northern New Mexico, southern Texas, and Miami.

Not surprisingly, our views on global warming as revealed by the Yale survey largely fall along either side of predictable political fault lines. In the West, for instance, Utah residents are the most skeptical about humankind’s contribution toward rising temperatures. Most in the state aren’t concerned about global warming, with the exception of the Salt Lake City area.


http://www.heraldextra.com/concern-for- ... cbaf0.html
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 02 May 2017, 11:04:15

well they did just vote in a complete nutter as president
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 04 May 2017, 17:09:49

Another sign that greenhouse gas emissions are going to fundamentally affect ecosystems in ways that we are just beginning to understand, a team of researchers has shown that bacteria in the ocean are losing their ability to fix nitrogen.

The study, published in the journal Science, took a close look at a type of cyanobacteria called Trichodesmium, which through nitrogen fixation, Trichodesmium converts nitrogen gas into ammonia and other molecules that organisms need for survival.

“This is one of the major sources of nitrogen for other organisms in the open ocean,” said Sven Kranz, assistant professor of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science at Florida State University and a co-author of this study. “If Trichodesmium responds negatively to the environmental changes forced upon the ocean by fossil fuel burning, it could have a large effect on our food web.”

Trichodesmium is thought to be responsible for about 50 percent of marine nitrogen fixation, so a decline in its ability could have a major ripple effect on marine ecosystems.


The complex effects of ocean acidification on the prominent N2-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 May 2017, 00:42:41

There are diseases hidden in ice, and they are waking up


Long-dormant bacteria and viruses, trapped in ice and permafrost for centuries, are reviving as Earth’s climate warms


http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504 ... -waking-up
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 08 May 2017, 14:17:08

Macron to US climate scientists: Come to France!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AHhc7DTIsg
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 May 2017, 14:40:10

dohboi wrote:Macron to US climate scientists: Come to France!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AHhc7DTIsg

The Brain drain in reverse :)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 08 May 2017, 16:12:57

1.5° C warming target set in Paris Accords will be smashed by 2016

https://phys.org/news/2017-05-paris.html

Global temperatures could break through the 1.5°C barrier negotiated at the Paris conference as early as 2026 .....New research published in Geophysical Research Letters by University of Melbourne scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global warming over the next decade.


No doubt the 2.0°C target for warming will be reached soon after.

No wonder Invanka Trump and Exxon and Shell Oil are such big supporters of the Paris Accords---it doesn't do anything to stop global warming so sales of Ivanka Trump brand swimwear will skyrocket!!!

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Donald Trump has put his daughter Ivanka Trump in charge of the Paris Climate Accords to help her sell her clothing line. Wow---You can't make this stuff up!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 09 May 2017, 21:30:35

Thanks Plant. Your photo made me exceed my temperature limit.
Hope she does better than that in Paris.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 21 May 2017, 17:30:25

Fungal Diseases Are on the Rise -- Is Environmental Change to Blame?

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/4066 ... e-to-blame
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby WildRose » Mon 22 May 2017, 11:06:09

I found this interesting. The seed vault in Svalbard, Norway has been experiencing the effects of climate change. With permafrost melt, there has been some flooding around the vault, and the government has had to make some adjustments in the structure, not thinking in 2008 (which isn't that long ago) that permafrost melt would be a problem to the security of the vault.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... nge/82476/


It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” spokesperson Hege Njaa Aschim told Wired.

The surrounding permafrost was actually one of the selling points of the vault. It began operations in 2008, and now hosts around a million seed samples with an eye to preserving mankind's crop diversity and food security. Aside from the permafrost keeping the place cold, its remote location above sea level and deep inside a mountain was considered a safe bet.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 17:22:02

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... r-for-war/

Once Again, Climate Change Cited as Trigger for Conflict

A new report identifies 12 "epicenters" worldwide where changing climate could spark conflict


The national security establishment needs to prepare for a series of global crises sparked by climate change, a group of experts wrote in a report released today.

The analysis by the Center for Climate and Security identifies 12 “epicenters” where climate change could stress global security, possibly igniting conflicts around the world.

American diplomats and military planners have already started grappling with some of these problems—but the links between them do not get enough attention, the experts said. And it is an open question whether the Trump administration confronts those challenges or tries to ignore them.

Many of the risk epicenters stem from resource shortages and dislocated populations, but the experts also consider an increased likelihood of nuclear war, more pandemics and tensions in the Arctic.

Any one of those factors is enough to cause serious problems, but together they threaten to undermine the international order...

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Jun 2017, 15:43:00

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/19/ ... ent-117191

World Climate Stays in Uncharted Territory as May of 2017 Hits Second Hottest on Record

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/19/ ... -nasa-jpg/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 25 Jun 2017, 16:00:47

Deep-reaching ramifications of CC...interview:

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/ch ... i_20170624

...how climate change interacts with economic neoliberalism and post-Cold-War militarism.

“Much of the global south is littered with cheap weapons and veterans of previous conflicts,” Parenti tells Hedges. “Underneath a lot of these ethnic and religious conflicts, we see that there is a climate element.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 13:33:52

Rising Seas Could Result in 2 Billion Refugees by 2100

In the year 2100, 2 billion people – about one-fifth of the world’s population – could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to Cornell research in the journal Land Use Policy, July 2017.
“We’re going to have more people on less land and sooner that we think,” ... “The future rise in global mean sea level probably won’t be gradual.

Yet few policy makers are taking stock of the significant barriers to entry that coastal climate refugees, like other refugees, will encounter when they migrate to higher ground.”

Earth’s escalating population is expected to top 9 billion people by 2050 and climb to 11 billion people by 2100, according to a United Nations report. Feeding that population will require more arable land even as swelling oceans consume fertile coastal zones and river deltas, driving people to seek new places to dwell.

By 2060, about 1.4 billion people could be climate change refugees, according to the paper. Geisler extrapolated that number to 2 billion by 2100.

“The colliding forces of human fertility, submerging coastal zones, residential retreat, and impediments to inland resettlement is a huge problem. We offer preliminary estimates of the lands unlikely to support new waves of climate refugees due to the residues of war, exhausted natural resources, declining net primary productivity, desertification, urban sprawl, land concentration, ‘paving the planet’ with roads and greenhouse gas storage zones offsetting permafrost melt,” Geisler said.

Beyond sea level rise, low-elevation coastal zones in many countries face intensifying storm surges that will push sea water further inland. Historically, humans have spent considerable effort reclaiming land from oceans, but now live with the opposite – the oceans reclaiming terrestrial spaces on the planet,” said Geisler. In their research, Geisler and Currens explore a worst-case scenario for the present century.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 27 Jun 2017, 15:40:56


We are heading for the warmest climate in half a billion years


https://www.skepticalscience.com/headin ... years.html
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 27 Jun 2017, 20:19:39

dohboi wrote:
We are heading for the warmest climate in half a billion years


https://www.skepticalscience.com/headin ... years.html


That thar is what weeuns call a premature expectoration!

The PTEM excursion was the hottest the Earth ever ot because negative feedback mechenisms grow strong exonentially the further you exceed about 21 C as the world average. Even the Excursion 55,000,000 years ago barely made it to 23 C and that was for a geologically brief period.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 08:28:41

The authors:

The ConversationGavin Foster, Professor of Isotope Geochemistry, University of Southampton; Dana Royer, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Wesleyan University, and Dan Lunt, Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol


are more aware of such things than you are, sub.

For one thing, as the article points out, the sun is brighter today than during previous periods of extreme warmth. Plus, we are adding CO2 and other GHGs to the atmosphere much more rapidly than in previous periods. And of course we are at the same time making an all out assault on life on the planet in a dozen different ways that will make the whole system less resilient.

I would say 'we'll see' but we likely won't be around to see things get this bad, nor will any humans or most other life forms.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 17:52:54

Don't be silly, the sun has been gradually shrinking and increasing temperature for 4,500,000,000 years. On that scale 55,000,000 years is 1.2% of the life of the sun and hence the increase energy balance is very small.

In addition I pointed out that due to the exponential nature of the negative feedbacks as the earths average temperature exceed 21 C temperatures means the hotter we get the more difficult it becomes to make it hotter. This is the law of diminishing returns at work in our favor for a change.

Thirdly, it has been estimated many times that if every gram of fossil fuel carbon is dug up and burned we couldn't get much over 5000 ppmv of CO2. On top of that the law of diminishing returns works for us there as well because every temperature increase is on a scale of doubling CO2. First double 560, second double 1120, third double 2240, fourth double 4480. The estimates of a 3 C rise every doubling takes us to 16, then 19, then 22, then theoretcally 25, but that presumes the negative feedbacks in the paleoclimate record no longer function.

I find it far more likely that by the third doubling to 2240 we will stop using fossil fuels, but even if we don't we can't get very far past 21 C global average. Last time we were there life thrived from the tropics to the poles, though tropical life was limited to amphibians and reptiles.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 19

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 18:24:55

You are forgetting that there are many positive feedbacks as well as negative, and most of the positive ones work much faster than the negative ones.

But if you have serious academic issues with the findings, please do contact the authors of the paper and point out to them the errors of their ways. Most academics I know are happy to be corrected about any errors in their research. :)

(and putting a lot of zeros after your figures doesn't change the mathematics. They are talking about 500 million years, you are talking about 50 some million...order of magnitude difference...nice try, tho)
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