Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Doly » Tue 30 May 2017, 15:30:34

Haven't been here for years, literally. I used to have a job in a call-centre that allowed me plenty of time in the Internet between calls. Then I got busy getting involved in the local Transition Town, rather than posting stuff on the Internet. I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.

Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.

Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.
2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".
3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.
4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?

Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?

As for the fact that oil prices went down since the big spike, I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed. In fact, I was at a big Financial Times meeting last year, and there was a guy there explaining how part of the reason for low interest rates is to keep oil prices managed, and then going on about how the responsibility for management was going to go from the American Fed to the ECB (it seems to me that one didn't happen, but I'm no financial expert).

So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure. And they've decided the correct response is obfuscation and propaganda, so that the little people don't panic. While managing prices. And, by the way, preparing for WWIII with the last country with significant reserves of oil that doesn't bow to the USA: Russia. Which is why the Russians moved their chess pieces, and put all that effort into getting elected the one guy that might, just might, not go to war with them.

But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.
What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4366
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 May 2017, 17:40:26

Doly wrote:Haven't been here for years, literally. I used to have a job in a call-centre that allowed me plenty of time in the Internet between calls. Then I got busy getting involved in the local Transition Town, rather than posting stuff on the Internet. I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.


Well, that depends on where you sat back when peak oil was happening and the world was about to end. For the uber-doomers, yep, they are now forced to defend peak oil volumes 10,000,000 barrels a day smaller than today, why peak oil caused low prices and glut everywhere, and the quality of their ideas in this regard plummeted. The good news is that folks like John Denver, proven nearly prophetic now, don't even need to post to say "I told you so!" because it is obvious to every leftover doomer with a trip to the gas station what has happened.

Doly wrote:Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.


The optimists back in the day were banned for...as we know now...daring to say something outside of herdthink. Even more horrifying is the idea that they were right.

Doly wrote:Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.


Pragmatists can go to the corner gas station and see what claimed peak oil has wrought, as can you.

Doly wrote:2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".


Peak oil supply can't be discredited, it will happen one way or another. That is the axiomatic beauty of at least PART of Hubbert's idea. It is all the hysterical arm waving and breathless speculation on the consequences that is just silly.

Doly wrote:3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.


Peak demand folks, particularly real live energy experts like Amy Jaffe, assume no such thing. And the even better news is that with even more oil today than humans previously suspected just a few years ago, it isn't as though any of those countries have to worry about running out any time soon. More time for transitioning than anyone ever expected!

Doly wrote:4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?


Oil is obsolete, and neither consumers nor doomers appear to realize this yet.

Remember when peak oil was going to stop transition? And then not only did folks build out windmills and utility scale solar like Ivanpah, but better yet, auto makers began making EVs? Ain't that GREAT!! And so maybe oil companies know that there days are numbered!

Doly wrote:Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?


Nope..can't be a new name. You see, they aren't the same thing. Peak supply was supposed to FORCE peak demand..not the other way around.

Doly wrote:So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure.


Of course they KNOW. Mike Ruppert claimed that the entire 9/11 conspiracy was designed to HIDE that they know!

Doly wrote:But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.


Amy Jaffe knows more about energy economics then little people like you and I, but hey, what do non-little people know, right? Interestingly, no one has been able to refute her specifics in print so far...could it be that peakers are more than a little worried about getting yet MORE egg on their faces when it turns out that not only have they been caught recycling bad peak ideas once now, but are going for strike #2 in just a decade's time?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 31 May 2017, 18:37:17

Doly - " The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers." To respond properly we need to understand what you mean by "Big Oil". If you mean those companies involved in only the exploration and production end of the business: they never have been involved making plastic nor are they moving that direction now.

OTOH if by "Big Oil" you mean the large "vertically integrated" companies not only extracting oil but also refining it they have been the heart of the plastic and petrochemical industry since the very beginning.

You might want to check out the "The Ethane Thread". "Big Petrochemical" (a huge portion of Big Oil) is spending $50 BILLION just within 20 mikes of the Rockman) to enhance its capacity to process ethane. Ethane: a NG liquid whose production has surged as a result of the other portions of Big and Little Oil developing the US shale plays.

Ethane and plastics? Ethane is turned into ethylene. And ethylene has a variety of industrial uses. These products are used in a wide variety of industrial and consumer markets such as the packaging, transportation, electrical/electronic, textile and construction industries as well as consumer chemicals, coatings and adhesives. The largest outlet, accounting for 60% of ethylene demand globally, is polyethylene. Polyethylene... the most common plastic on the planet.

So: "Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers." Ethane, ethylene and all the refinery products produced from oil have always been sold to "other potential buyers". It's why the vertically integrated Big Oil companies were created in the first place.

You do have some interest points to make IMHO. But be careful in the technical areas: Adam loves to bust balls when such slips occur. LOL
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 31 May 2017, 22:51:57

Dear friend worked in Baytown, Tx at a German owned plastics plant, huge plays going on for ethane and corresponsing polyethylene and plastics plays. Interestingly, the Germans are getting out and opting for genetic and companion chenical big agriculture plays. Shows me the plastics plays are interesting for Middle East and Saudi investments in the ethane surplus of certain field exploits and that they probably have bucks to yield from them. German money is smart and moves in smart ways, and they avoid a commodity raw materials business as the race to to the bottom it is. We have a CIC who is a real estate developer and looks for strategy and leverage wins in the short term against people who have insight and long range goals beyond putting a big gold "T" on a coveted real estate property.
Playing checkers with chess players is a losing posture, we bet on this to feel good about shaking up government so it would pay attention to us. In this case, taking it "to the man" is a neophyte railing up against the best and brightest we have, the most experienced, the most steeped in reality, and catering to the forsaken middle class, stunted by GDP idling, against the real challenges and realities of the world we are in. Imagine if you could that our posture was to play checkers against the grand masters, and come out intact and in a great position. Do you think a great game of checkers restores 4% GDP growth needed in an era of stagnant growth and bodacious financial manipulation? Perhaps in the New York metro with great hype and tabloid manipulation for a prized location. The rest of the nation is screwed by a guy who garners all the attention and hype and makes up his mind at the very last possible second. Winning bigly in New York is a recipe for losing bigly as a nation. We hired Rodney Dangerfield from Caddyshack to run the world, and are focused on the guy gunning for the groundhog.
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 31 May 2017, 23:31:07

Doly wrote: I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.

Yeah, everybody has noticed that. There is still some good real information to be gained, but most of everything here is just reworked opinion. Over and Over and Over ........
I'm going to hit the road again in about a month and have already killed my satellite internet connection as of the middle of June, so I won't be around too much either.
I've almost got my old RV repaired and modified to my satisfaction and I hope to become a full-timer and just look for pretty places to photograph. The only two states I haven't been to are New Hampshire and Vermont, so those are high priority now.
I will check in from time to time if I find some good wifi spots.
Till then, yall take care now.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 06:27:55

"I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed."

It's a little hypocritical to bash the quality of the discussion here and your only real contribution is to throw out yet another conspiracy theory.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4290
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 09:03:32

Hawkcreek wrote: The only two states I haven't been to are New Hampshire and Vermont, so those are high priority now.
I will check in from time to time if I find some good wifi spots.
Till then, yall take care now.


I've been to all the states except Hawaii, but the real effort is in going to all the counties in the country. When in New Hampshire do Mt Washington, it is worth it, plus its pretty country in general. Stop in and see vtsnowedin, and maybe visit Revi if you feel like jumping over the border to Maine, he is more on the western side of the state so not hard to get to from New Hampshire.

Was just up in NE Nebraska and hanging around near Minneapolis myself, then up and down the peninsula NE of Green Bay, I love hanging around near any shore of a great lake. Keweenau being my favorite so far. Good travels, and don't worry at all about fuel, availability or prices, because as we all know, peak oil happened, and the results were cheapness and abundance, making it a perfect environment for road tripping, with or without a gas hog!

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 11:33:06

Farmer - Not just Baytown, home of the Rockman who lives just across the highway from ExxonMobil's giant ethane cracker under construction. As well as more the $50 BILLION in capex being spent on refinery expansions within 20 miles of the Rockman:

"Shows me the plastics plays are interesting for Middle East and Saudi investments in the ethane surplus of certain field exploits and that they probably have bucks to yield from them."

Such as:

Exxon Mobil Chemical will build the world's largest ethylene cracker plant in south Texas. Exxon, with project partner Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corp, ended months of speculation by announcing it plans to build the $10 billion plant near Portland in the Corpus Christi area.

The chemical and plastics plant is the first U.S. joint venture for SABIC and Exxon Mobil, two of the world’s biggest energy companies. The plant could come online as early as 2020 if construction begins this year. The plan is to take advantage of cheap and ample shale natural gas available here to make chemicals and plastics."

Interesting developments considering how often we hear from some folks here that the petroleum industry is on its last leg and on the verge of going down the toilet, eh?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 11:38:08

Hawk - "...New Hampshire and Vermont...". What! You don't want to hang in south Texas in the summer time?

Via con dios, muchacho.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 12:39:21

ROCKMAN wrote:Interesting developments considering how often we hear from some folks here that the petroleum industry is on its last leg and on the verge of going down the toilet, eh?


How dare you quote multi billion dollar investments in hydrocarbon development because of cheap and available natural gas supplies which were supposed to have peaked 50 years ago! Heresy! Put your blinders back on, immediately take all estimates of abundance anywhere on anything and divide by 1000, THAT must be the real number because abundance...can't exist!! We can only have...DOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 13:18:16

People have definately and without any doubt confidently been predicting TEOTWAWKI since Biblical times - we have the historical records to prove it.

Personally I think it goes back many thousands of years before that, when the local shaman of the ape troop traded his mastery of lightning and other weather phenomena for more food and females. Doom has always been a good business to be in, in spite of all the competition today.

But it's not a healthy preoccupation, either. In fact, it's dangerous. The Jonestown mass suicide was an extreme symptom, Michael Ruppert eating his gun another.

The human race is in overshoot. Nature is correcting the problem, or will soon - within say, two centuries. Don't get even slightly invested in Doom in your lifetime, or you'll be severely disappointed.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 17:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 15:30:42

KaiserJeep wrote:People have definately and without any doubt confidently been predicting TEOTWAWKI since Biblical times - we have the historical records to prove it.


Sure. Anyone capable of reading a history book knows this, but the real question is, why won't people pick up that history book and learn this...prior to recycling the same bad ideas over and over again?

Is it really because this is a religious issue for peaker doomers, at its core?

https://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2007 ... -peak-oil/

kaiserjeep wrote:But it's not a healthy preoccupation, either. In fact, it's dangerous. The Jonestown mass suicide was an extreme symptom, Michael Ruppert eating his gun another.


Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.

kaiserjeep wrote:The human race is in overshoot. Nature is correcting the problem, or will soon - within say, two centuries. Don't get even slightly invested in Doom in your lifetime, or you'll be severely disappointed.


And most folks here, and their kids, and even their kids, all get to die first rather than being anywhere near it!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 10:33:59

AdamB wrote:Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.


I may be misinterpreting your snark but did Matt Savinar ever write any sort of blog post or press release explaining his exit from LATOC?

Another person who has exited the scene is Sharon Astyk. The last time she wrote anything remotely related to doom/sustainability was three years ago and she put her farm up for sale last year.

Ultimately people's actions speak louder than words. Even those here who are still beating the doomer drum so loudly, how many are feverishly prepping like so many were 10 years ago? I think...not many. People still cling to their ideologies for the sake of protecting their fragile egos but at a visceral level most of us have hit the proverbial snooze bar.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4290
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 20:18:22

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Matt Savinar did seem to be afraid of his band of happy zealots, there at the end. When he cut the dead albatross of peak oil from around his neck, he did it fast and hard and did a wonderful expose on the religious beliefs that populated LATOC.


I may be misinterpreting your snark but did Matt Savinar ever write any sort of blog post or press release explaining his exit from LATOC?


He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.

It was perhaps the most amazing expose of what peak oil leaders thought of their worshipers that I've ever seen or heard of. But Matt couldn't leave it up, and ultimately he edited the first rant (and its foul language) to something more tame but just as revealing, and then he generalized that a little more, and within about 48 hours it all vanished, and it was the opportunity he needed to shut down everythingdown.

It appeared to me that an opportunity came along he could use as an excuse to get the dead albatross from around his neck, and he took it. Rip the bandaid off fast, do the deep dive into palm reading and such. But his honesty, during that weekend....amazing AND revealing.

asg70 wrote:
Another person who has exited the scene is Sharon Astyk. The last time she wrote anything remotely related to doom/sustainability was three years ago and she put her farm up for sale last year.


Quite a few have quietly wandered off. Websites vanished as well. The lobbying arm of peak oil, ASPO USA, has about vanished, changed its name, rewritten their mission statement to become all eco, PCI is doing about the same thing.

asg70 wrote:
Ultimately people's actions speak louder than words. Even those here who are still beating the doomer drum so loudly, how many are feverishly prepping like so many were 10 years ago? I think...not many. People still cling to their ideologies for the sake of protecting their fragile egos but at a visceral level most of us have hit the proverbial snooze bar.


Hard not to when I just bought some gasoline today at <$2.00/gal. Every peak oiler from a decade past is seeing the same thing, and it just puts the lie in the claims of peaks past.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 19:33:42

How about this Domino effect: Credit markets seize up and poof goes the modern Economies. Borrowed from a poster on the News section
"For there to be a market, there must be two prime players, buyers and sellers that are free to negotiate price. We are sitting here on the edge of a cratered economy and musing over why gas prices have not risen.

On the seller’s side, i.e. the production side, there is a rather simple process in any mining operation. The large concentrations of the easy to get at stuff are always mined first. As the operation begins to deplete those easy sources, innovators introduce new technologies to augment production. The steam engine came into its own because there was a need to pump water out of coal mines. Those engines did not put more coal in the veins that were being mined. What they did do was make some inaccessible coal accessible. At some point the veins play out or the techniques needed for extraction become cost prohibitive and production stops. Either way, at some point coal mines close.

On the buyer’s side, the sought after product must in some way increase income or enhance the standard of living for the purchaser. Oil does that for western civilization in a million ways. Oil is the single factor, the one ingredient, that if withdrawn will collapse our civilization in a matter of days. Nothing else is in place that can fuel our transports. Before alternatives could be brought on line the world wide supply chains would collapse. The resulting chaos would take down civilization.

For this simple reason, nothing about the oil market is real. Everything is contrived and controlled. Still, there is a dynamic that is playing out below the surface. It has to do with the declining ratio that exists between the energy consumed in production and the remaining net energy available for sale. We are very rapidly approaching a zero sum game. We are getting to the point that the calories invested in production are exceeding the calories produced by the process. This declining ratio is evidenced in declining profit margins. In a real market, when extraction costs rise to the point that they exceeded the product’s market price, production would simply stop.

That is not the case with oil. Unprofitable oil is being extracted the world over. The fact that it is not profitable is concealed first and foremost by a never ending line of credit that has been made available to producers. As long as the bills can be paid by borrowed money, the profit margins are irrelevant. The spice will continue to flow even at a loss. Secondly the full impact of this imbalance is being hidden to some extent by the simple fact that source of calories used in production are not identical to the calories produced by the process. Coal produced electricity will not power an F-16.

Oil production will continue and prices will continue to remain low as long as the exponential credit creation continues. When credit collapses oil production implodes"
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 21:39:45

AdamB wrote:He did. Several versions. And then erased them all along with the 2 alternate web forums he attempted to migrate to, as LATOC 1 imploded under the weight of the neediness of its posters.


I just discovered this reply. Do you happen to have a copy of Matt Savinar's farewell manifesto? I'd really like to read it.

Probably the hardest thing human beings find to do is to admit to being wrong, and in the age of the internet, seeing someone, anyone, admit to being wrong is as rare as hen's teeth. That, I think, is why these people just sort of quietly pack their bags and walk to the exit rather than making some sort of statement to address what all their mis-spent activism/commentary really means. This is really disappointing when some of these people wrote entire books on the subject (like Greer). They're writers.
They're not at a loss for words unless it's to admit to having wasted a portion of their lives fixating on an imperfect vision of the future.

I really think that explains everything. The more time and energy you invest in an endeavor the more reluctant you are to accept failure. That's why these people have sort of tried to rebrand themselves so they can shake off their old followers and pick up new ones who have no memory of their prior selves so they never have to answer any awkward chicken little style questions.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4290
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 15:07:57

"We are getting to the point that the calories invested in production are exceeding the calories produced by the process." With respect to just the drilling of new wells and the production of existing wells it is impossible for this to happen. I assume such statements are based on the unrealisticly high assumption of the amount of energy ("calories") it takes to drill, complete and produce wells. Long before the number of Btu's used to drill, complete and produce a typical oil/NG well even match the Btu's produced let alone exceed those consumed the economic analysis will kill a project.

The easiest way to appreciate the dynamic is the think of the value of the Btu's involved on both sides of the equation. The cost of the Btu's used to drill a typical well is only about 5% to 10% of the total cost. When evaluating a project essentially it is done on $'s in vs $'s out. Only 10% or less of the $'s in represent the Btu's utilized to drill the project. So assume a project returns ONLY the same value of the Btu's used. Obviously the project would be a big money loser since the value of its Btu's produced fails to return 90%+ of what it cost IN TOTAL to drill the well.

I only offer a rough estimate but a project will calculate out as uneconomic when the amount of Btu's produced is less then 5 or 6 times the amount of Btu's consumed. This relation also creates a dynamic that I'm sure many here cannot accept: the big decrease in the oil price has resulted in higher EROEI to justify drilling wells today. Again think in terms of $'s and not Btu's. If a well required $15 million in revenue to justify drilling in 2014 when oil was $80+/bbl how many $50 bbls would it take today to recover the same $15 million? Obviously more bbls. But the identical well drilled in Jan 2014 would require the same number of Btu's as a well drilled in Jan 2017.

So it's really that simple: same number of Btu"s consumed and more Btu's produced = a higher EROEI. So much for the erroneous claim that EROEI was on a continuously declining trajectory.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 15:17:02

With all due respect to your knowledge Rockman, is not the heavy lending going on in those shale fracked areas a testament to the unprofitable nature of those reserves and thus by connection the marginal EROEI of many of these plays?
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 15:39:17

But I do like the falling domino image. But different then I image most see it. Mine has a number of separate domino rows running back from a confluence centered on two dominos back to back. This would be the actual moment of global peak oil. Which might be some years ahead or was within the last 2 years. And from that point another confluence separates into multiple lines of dominos going forward in time.

And at some time in the past the domino facing back fell over. And multiple lines of dominos have been falling at different rates. Some result in high oil prices and others low prices. Some declining global production and others increasing. Some timecrash into military conflicts and others into peaceful joint ventures. Where countries sit in the confusing jumble varies.

And what does the future falling dominos look like beyond that PO intersection in time? Who knows? But it might not look much different then the cluster we've been experiencing for some time.

And there you have it: the workings of a bored mind stuck on a drill site with a broken rig with nothing else to do. LOL.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 16:38:31

ROCKMAN wrote:
And there you have it: the workings of a bored mind stuck on a drill site with a broken rig with nothing else to do. LOL.

Not to pry into propitiatory information if it matters but.... What broke? How long will it take to fix it? How much will that cost? How much will that move the needle on the break even point on that well? If you can answer that is fine. If you can't answer for any reason that is also fine.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 86 guests