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Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 28 May 2017, 13:40:23

Sys - "Peak oil crashed the economy back in 2008." Global oil production was around 82 mm bopd in 2008 according to the EIA. Today it exceeds 92 mm bopd.

So PO in 2008???


Peak of light sweet crude was in 2005. It was the reason why oil reached 150$ just before the global economic crash of 2008.
Expensive oil meant central bank increased their rates and customers with derivative crédits could not pay any more their mansions. As subprime guarantee for banks came from the mansions themselves, so it was a game over when the marked was flooded with this real estate tsunami. When this Ponzi scheme collapsed, it was bought by nations who were afraid of say... 1929, world war 2... you get it

We shifted from a private debt to national debt, with banks asking the very countries who saved them to destroy public services and to do more for neoliberalism.

Now back about oil : If you count all the dirty shit out there, you can also add coal, oil sand or whatever (even rainforest)as "oil". The reality is that we have already peaked, we are now burning the bad stuff. Bad stuff means bad EROEI and lot of CO2/CH4 put in the atmosphere to obtain the same energy.

I saw the storm coming back in 2005 and choosed a job and a social position to save my ass. Nevertheless, I know that I won't escape indefinatally from a global situation getting worse and worse.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 May 2017, 15:51:50

Sys - "Peak of light sweet crude was in 2005. It was the reason why oil reached 150$ just before the global economic crash of 2008.". First the definition of global peak oil is the peak of all oils and not one particular gravity. But even disregarding that are you implying that from late 2008 when oil price reached $140+/bbl "light sweet crude" production surged in early 2009 causing the price to fall to $60/bbl?

That seems to be your logic: the price of oil is driven by the amount of "light sweet crude" production. Additionally you have no DOCUMENTED data showing the "light sweet crude" peak in 2008, do you? Also, it might be handy now for you to define exactly what "light sweet crude".

And: "The reality is that we have already peaked, we are now burning the bad stuff." As I DOCUMENTED above the refineries are processing the same blended oil as it has for at least 23 years. IOW all the refined products coming out of the US (the largest oil refining country in the world) is being produced from the same oil today as it was in 2008.

But you're certainly free to have your own biased impression of the character of the oil we've been refining for the last few decades. What you don't have is the ability to prove it with DOCUMENTED FACTS.

But I'm always willing to admit when I'm wrong: just show us all the DOCUMENTED FACTS.

"Bad stuff means bad EROEI's": I understand what high and low EROEI's mean but what is a " bad EROEI"? BTW you do understand that since oil prices collapsed the EROEI of wells currently being drilled is significantly higher then comparable wells drilled a few years ago, right?
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby dissident » Sun 28 May 2017, 15:54:56

Fake media outlet Reuters and its fake news. If the world refiners are clogged with oil then where is there any evidence of gasoline prices reflecting this. In Quebec prices for gasoline routinely spike to CAN$1.26 and hover above CAN$1.10. In Ontario the prices are lower but there is no indication that the cost of a barrel is 50% of what it was when the gasoline prices were only marginally higher (CAN$1.37 in Quebec and CAN$1.16 in Ontario). Taxes don't explain the lack of substantial price reductions.

The real story is that refiners are clogged because so many refineries have been shut down.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/05/23 ... 39701.html

Since the 1970s, the number of refineries in Canada has plummeted from 40 to 19, taking a big bite out of the direct refinery labour force, which dropped from 27,400 to 17,500 between 1989 and 2009. There hasn’t been a new refinery built in Canada since 1984, or in the U.S. since 1976.


https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... _NUS_C&f=A

So the number of refineries in the USA and Canada has dropped by 50% since the 1970s. Last time I checked the number of vehicles did not drop by 50% over this time period.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 28 May 2017, 16:23:20

dissident wrote:So the number of refineries in the USA and Canada has dropped by 50% since the 1970s. Last time I checked the number of vehicles did not drop by 50% over this time period.
The number of US refineries is down, but the remaining refineries were expanded and overall US refining capacity has increased. Going from around 15.6 million bpd in 1985 to 18.4 million bpd today:
U. S. Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity

Also, there are much less idle refineries today. There were 47 idle refineries in the US in 1982 and today there are only 2:

U.S. Number of Idle Refineries
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby marmico » Sun 28 May 2017, 16:25:41

Image

It is the capacity not the number of refineries that matters.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:05:54

Fortunate for us humans is that we are a clever bunch and are no longer forced to wander around grubbing for berries and eating the random animal we can force down. Oil does a lot of the work for us.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:20:12

If the world refiners are clogged with oil then where is there any evidence of gasoline prices reflecting this. In Quebec prices for gasoline routinely spike to CAN$1.26 and hover above CAN$1.10. In Ontario the prices are lower but there is no indication that the cost of a barrel is 50% of what it was when the gasoline prices were only marginally higher (CAN$1.37 in Quebec and CAN$1.16 in Ontario). Taxes don't explain the lack of substantial price reductions.


Ontario prices are about 75% of what their high was in 2014 when oil was about double it's current value. But remember that the component of gasoline price is only about 50% allocated to crude costs, the rest are taxes (which haven't gone down) and refinery costs (which also have not gone down). So the Ontario price seems to make some sense.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 May 2017, 21:10:37

donstewart wrote:Consequently, an article from 2006 saying that Peak Oil is wrong because we are flexible and smart human beings who can cope with anything has not been proven. The evidence so far is much more consistent with the Robert Hirsch message.
Don Stewart


Really? The one from 1988 where he claimed the next big energy crisis was scheduled for the early 90's? Let me guess, you didn't even know that he had been doing this 20 years before you bumped into him? So his consistent message of proclaiming oil shortages and crisis and whatnot, sure, I'm right with you on that one. Can you even EXPLAIN the difference between his 1988 energy crisis message, and the one in the Hirsch report of 2005? Better yet, are you aware of the single, overriding, horrendous flaw that invalidates the entire 2005 Hirsch report...or is knowing only the part you LIKE about what someone says where you draw the line?

You do understand that it takes an understanding of BOTH sides of an issue to make an informed decision right? Rather than just getting taken for a ride..maybe because...you WANT to be taken for a ride?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 May 2017, 21:19:36

Sys1 wrote:Peak oil crashed the economy back in 2008. As we are in the middle of this slow collapse, many of us, just like the frog slowly cooked in the pan, are not seeing what is just in front of our eyes :
- People now have difficulties finding good jobs and finding a house.
- Global warming seems to be exponential and not linear. Heat waves happen every years on every continents, and those heat waves are worse.
- National Debt is going exponential since countries decide to rebuy all the junk assets from crashed real estate banks.
- Waves of people from Africa (and also east Europe) are coming in Western Europe, I see many of them next to Paris, where I live.
- Culture is going down. Many tv-reality craziness, childrens playing stupid games and watching porn on smartphones, cinema unable to product anything but the same movie remade again and again(Alien 5 or 6? Starwars 8 or 9?)
- We are 7.5 billions on Earth
- All medias are in the hands of Financial criminals who force the population/institution to follow neoliberalism rules and never critisize "Growth".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 21:33:02

Adam B
I used Hirsch as an example in the search for the Black Cat of a replacement for oil. Here is Hirsch's history:
Hirsch directed the US fusion energy program during the 1970s evolution of the Atomic Energy Commission (including initiation of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor), through the Energy Research and Development Administration to the present Department of Energy. In addition to his role in development of fusion energy by magnetic confinement, Hirsch was also interested in inertially confined fusion.

His previous management positions include:

Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC (World oil production)
Senior Energy Analyst, RAND (Various energy studies)
Vice President of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
Vice President and Manager of Research and Technical Services for Atlantic Richfield Co. (ARCO) (Oil and gas exploration and production).
Founder and CEO of APTI, a roughly $50 million/year company now owned by BAE Systems. (Commercial & Defense Department technologies).
Manager of Exxon’s synthetic fuels research laboratory.
Manager of Petroleum Exploratory Research at Exxon. (Refining R & D).
Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) responsible for renewables, fusion, geothermal and basic research. (Presidential Appointment).
Director of fusion research at the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and ERDA.

With that resume, I would say that Hirsch was a pretty good guy to talk about the difficulty of replacing oil as a primary energy source.

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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 May 2017, 07:22:17

donstewart wrote:With that resume, I would say that Hirsch was a pretty good guy to talk about the difficulty of replacing oil as a primary energy source.

Don Stewart


He has a great resume. I asked about the underlying fundamentals of his WORK that demonstrate why his conclusions are invalid in his 2005 report. Therein lies the problem that a resume cannot fix, just as facts, history, logic or science cannot change a doomers mind that doom is always around the corner.

When a scientist ignores the events around him, and puts that one conditional in their work that can be seen in real time to be incorrect....they aren't a scientist any more. They are something else. A writer of fiction perhaps?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby marmico » Mon 29 May 2017, 15:19:21

Keen's forward estimates mean a long walk in the desert.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property ... -sdn0.html
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 29 May 2017, 18:32:32

I think something like a line on a chart is always going to be an oversimplification. Rockman explained how the breakeven point in Shale is not a single number but that it boils down to a bunch of individual plays, some better than others. So sure, you can average them out, but the level of noise in the chart increases quite a bit as you look at individual data points. The same is true if you look at the overall health of the economy or quality of life. There are shit-holes all over the place but not everywhere's a shit hole and every shit hole has its own complex reasons for being a shit hole.

However, when you come here there is this desire to reduce everything down into a math formula and then issue an extraordinary claim "total financial collapse in 2 years!"

That's where things tend to go off the rails.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 May 2017, 20:03:12

pstarr wrote:Don, Don, Don really? :-x :razz:

AdamB knows much more than Hirsch and is much more highly educated. He has a BS in Communications.


You might not be familiar with Hirsch's work. I am. I can compare that work to the reality at the time, and even better compare the reality of what happened next with his conclusions at the time.

That doesn't require any bachelor's degree in anything. Even you could do it. If you wanted to of course, there is always that problem when it comes to true believers.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby dissident » Mon 29 May 2017, 20:22:53

marmico wrote:Keen's forward estimates mean a long walk in the desert.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property ... -sdn0.html


Oh my. Dirty Chinese money is propping up Australian real estate and producing a bubble. Just as in Canada. This exogenous process has no relevance to the validity of Keen's criticism of the "established" Mickey Mouse economics. Keen is an idiot for thinking his toy model somehow accounted for pathological exogenous economic distortion such as is the case with dirty Chinese money. I guess this is a case of being too high on your own success. Frankly, Australia and Canada are glorified banana republics. Keen's model did a much better job for the US which is not so easily influence by dirty foreign money stimuli.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 29 May 2017, 20:48:06

dissident wrote: Frankly, Australia and Canada are glorified banana republics. Keen's model did a much better job for the US which is not so easily influence by dirty foreign money stimuli.

Australia and Canada are resource rich republics governed by majority voted for politicians which have achieved a commendable level of government support of those in need.
Banana republics on the other hand are usually controlled by a dictator and his supporting foreign corporation ( classically the the United fruit company).
There is a world of difference between them.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 May 2017, 22:36:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
dissident wrote: Frankly, Australia and Canada are glorified banana republics. Keen's model did a much better job for the US which is not so easily influence by dirty foreign money stimuli.

Australia and Canada are resource rich republics governed by majority voted for politicians which have achieved a commendable level of government support of those in need.
Banana republics on the other hand are usually controlled by a dictator and his supporting foreign corporation ( classically the the United fruit company).
There is a world of difference between them.


When all you have is a hammer..the world looks to be full of nails....
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 May 2017, 02:51:51



This article is just an excuse to rejigger an End of Suburbia narrative. The wishful thinking on display here is delusional. This quote is priceless:

By far and large, most families living in Western suburbs still own at least one car. They have to, even though that means an increasingly heavy strain to the family's budget. But, as the current trends continue, there will come a moment in which owning a car will become a burden too heavy to carry for a non negligible fraction of the suburban population. Then what happens? Well, there are several possible ways for people to cope: biking, carpooling, using donkeys, move to the city to live in a shack made of discarded cardboard containers or, simply, go zombie and die.


Classic peak-oil would tell us that skyrocketing gas prices would be what leads us from SUVs to donkey carts, but now Ugo is somehow drawing a line between car-sharing services and....the zombie horde???

Image
Car sharing made me go zombie and die!

This slippery-slope narrative that suggests that one day we won't even own our refrigerators is outright farcical.

You really take these things seriously? THIS is your best appeal to authority? And make a note of the subject header. Clogged with oil and we're still supposed to extrapolate end of suburbia?

Whatever happened to peak oil and good old fashioned price spikes and shortages?

Now anything and everything is fodder to draw a line to zombies and government conspiracy-theories.

Image

These supporting links I'm seeing perma-doomers offer up are really establishing a consistent pattern of being bad to the point of self-parody (like this) or even containing blocks of suppositions that directly contradict rather than affirm the thesis (Onlooker being guilty of that boo boo). If you can't find any really good supporting links, then don't stretch by serving up this sort of garbage. It only makes your case feel weaker.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Tue 30 May 2017, 08:59:58

@asg70
I began by referring to Steve Keen's observations about how micro effects don't scale directly to macro. Emergence happens and we get effects which are not present in the raw ingredients. As in, a biscuit is not present in the separate elements of flour, water, and salt.

I was reading recently about the current collapse in the automobile market, triggered by the decline in the price of used cars. The auto market is now heavily financialized. (Apologies to those who know more about this than I do.) So leases are bundled and sold to investors just the way sub-prime mortgages were bundled and sold to investors in 2006-7. But if the value of the lease turn out to be negative because the car can't be sold for the assumed amount, then the investors lose money. There are chain reactions through the whole auto sector. Some luxury brands such as Lexus are overwhelmingly dominated by leases, rather than cash sales. Some people run the numbers and predict quite large declines in the production of new automobiles. But the models being used to evaluate the market are still just 'complicated' not 'complex'...at least the way I would use the language.

A numbers of people have weighed in with their opinions about whether self-driving cars and the financialization of transportation will fundamentally change the landscape. Some, for example, think that spending money on infrastructure right now is foolish, because we don't know how self-driving cars, presumably electric, and presumably operated like driver-less taxis, will work out in practice. I would consider any model which was used to predict that future as 'complex'. One tries to line up some facts, or reasonable guesses, but one also has a lot of stuff coming in from left field such as socially driven consumption of impressive cars.

Bardi gives us his view, which I suspect is somewhat satirical. If he explained it to us in a pub, we would likely have a better idea what he really thinks than in reading stuff on the internet. At any rate, Bardi's Default Network is working, which is a good thing, since we need to bubble up new ideas and possibilities when changes of this magnitude seems to be in our pretty near future.

Accusing Bardi of being in some sort of 'peak oil doomer conspiracy' would not be a very helpful way to think about the issues, in my opinion. Such an act would just shut off thought.

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