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PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 May 2016, 22:08:10

Based on this graph Mexico becomes a net oil importer some time between now and January 2017.

Not to put to fine a point on it, but if the USA can no longer use Mexico as an oil resource the USA foreign policy will be less and less interested in what is going on there compared to say Nigeria or Libya.

Image

Granted this projection was made several years ago, but the steep drop in oil prices has pretty much destroyed Mexico's ability to woo in foreign investment so their exports are declining rapidly.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 25 May 2016, 06:45:39

Mexico is a gasoline importer so net oil and product exports are more illuminating - so 1.1 MBD oil exports - 0.36 MBD gasoline imports = 0.65 MBD net exports (it could be that there some other oil and product net imports that need to be factored in so if you see somebody's net figures...). Still declining but at a much slower rate than when Cantarell hit its initial decline around 2005.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/mexicos-pemex-says-crude-output-falls-slightly-in-april/

According to Pemex’s website, crude oil production averaged 2.177 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 2.217 million in March. In contrast, exports increased 1.7 percent to 1.081 million bpd in April, from 1.063 million the prior month.


http://www.reuters.com/article/mexico-oil-kemp-idUSL5N18E3TV

Mexico's refineries are unable to meet all the domestic demand for gasoline or diesel and the country is a major importer of motor fuels, especially gasoline.

Mexico imported around 360,000 bpd of gasoline in 2015, net of exports; the country relied on imports for nearly half of its total requirements.

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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 25 May 2016, 08:04:58

Goner – This chart can be illuminating:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images ... 8/main.png

It only runs thru 2013 but the trend line is rather obvious. In 2004 the US imported 1.6 mm bopd and exported 200,000 bbls of refined products to Mexico. In 2013 the numbers were 850,000 bopd imported and 520,000 bbls exported. IOW as oil exports to the US fell 50% and Mexican imports of products increased 250%.

And that’s just liquid petroleum. Natural gas is increasingly replacing oil in electric power generation. However, because Mexico is a net importer of natural gas, higher levels of natural gas consumption will likely depend on more pipeline imports from the United States or LNG imports from other countries. In 1990 Mexico imported very little NG from the US: 16 bcf. In 2015 it imported 1 TRILLION cf from the US: a 65X increase.

Even without the oil price decrease Merico’s energy future looks very grim.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 May 2016, 09:35:52

pstarr wrote:Tanada, about that graph: what a sorry story. Where is the data, the graph, the analysis? It is the first I have seen it.
Image
It is based upon a projection, and doesn't seem to be consistent with Energy Export Databrowser. Which shows continuing exports. Or am I missing something?


Pstarr, your graph is from 2014 and might be the last one with up to date data at that point in time. In 2013 Mexico made a huge deal about changing the law allowing foreign investment in Pemex dominated oil projects so in 2014 there was a lot of rosy glasses anticipation that things were about to turn around. Unfortunately in 2013 when the law was enacted world average oil price was $91/bbl but it peaked in early 2014 and by the end of the year world average price had fallen to $85/bbl. When KSA/OPEC declared they would not defend price in November 2014 prices collapsed from the then current $75/bbl down over 10 percent to $63/bbl the first week of December 2014. They stayed in a range of $59-64 from December through June 2015 and then dropped again starting in July 2015 all the way through the rest of 2015 bottoming out in January 2016.

As far as I can tell the few companies that were willing to invest in the risky Pemex partnerships late in 2013 lost interest in early 2014 because the big players saw what was happening with USA fracking over development. Or maybe that is hindsight analysis on my part? Either way the hoped for flood of foreign investment in Pemex oil field development did not take place and as the saying goes, depletion never sleeps.

With lower prices Pemex started pumping harder to try and maintain income through volume, but as we know pumping a field too hard can damage it, and even if you do zero damage you deplete it faster by getting the easier to pull stuff out more quickly.

The great hope for Pemex in 2013 was where the Eagle Ford shale trend IIRC continues on from Texas into their region. The big plan I remember reading about was how Pemex and partners were going to massively invest in fracking those shale's in Mexico and have their own version of the "shale miracle. Well when the boom went bust all that planning went down the oubliette.

Mexico does have a lot of both shale and deep water GOM potential, but until drilling actually happens all that potential remains potential, not exports.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 25 May 2016, 09:49:43

T - I doubt there will be much foreign capex spent onshore Mexico even if prices recover significantly. What US companies have been hoping for is access to their GOM waters. There have been significant discovers just across the international border on the US side for some time. From 2015:

The Mexican Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) announced its first ever licensing round (Ronda Uno) in August 2014, with a view to bolstering exploration investment, especially in the offshore region, but also onshore where unconventional resource exploration has been initiated in the Burgos Basin.

The round is phased, with shallow water blocks in the South East Basin being offered first, and data packages are now available. The CNH is looking for participation with a minimum bid that must comprise at least two commitment wells on the first phase of released blocks. Despite these requirements the round is expected to be highly competitive because of the prospective acreage on offer.

The Ronda Uno blocks are scattered throughout most of the offshore basins in Mexico. A vast amount of 3D seismic data now covers most of the prospective areas offshore Mexico, so future exploration will be accelerated by access to these data sets. There are very few wells in the deep offshore, including fewer than 10 wells in water depths greater than 1,500m, so this is almost virgin exploration territory in basins with vast petroleum potential.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 May 2016, 09:55:09

ROCKMAN wrote:T - I doubt there will be much foreign capex spent onshore Mexico even if prices recover significantly. What US companies have been hoping for is access to their GOM waters. There have been significant discovers just across the international border on the US side for some time. From 2015:

The Mexican Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) announced its first ever licensing round (Ronda Uno) in August 2014, with a view to bolstering exploration investment, especially in the offshore region, but also onshore where unconventional resource exploration has been initiated in the Burgos Basin.

The round is phased, with shallow water blocks in the South East Basin being offered first, and data packages are now available. The CNH is looking for participation with a minimum bid that must comprise at least two commitment wells on the first phase of released blocks. Despite these requirements the round is expected to be highly competitive because of the prospective acreage on offer.

The Ronda Uno blocks are scattered throughout most of the offshore basins in Mexico. A vast amount of 3D seismic data now covers most of the prospective areas offshore Mexico, so future exploration will be accelerated by access to these data sets. There are very few wells in the deep offshore, including fewer than 10 wells in water depths greater than 1,500m, so this is almost virgin exploration territory in basins with vast petroleum potential.


Any links for how well those block leases sold and who bid on them? Just curious as right now it seems like all the USA oil majors are in target and buy mode.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 22:01:11

westexas wrote:In a February, 2013 article, titled “The Export Capacity Index (ECI):A New Metric For Predicting Future Supplies of Global Net Oil Exports,” I summarized recent global production and net export data, and I introduced what I call the Export Capacity Index (ECI), which is the sum of total petroleum liquids + other liquids production (per EIA definition) divided by liquids consumption for an oil exporting country. Net Oil Exports are defined as Total petroleum liquids + other liquids production less liquids consumption (EIA).

In the ECI article, I also reviewed what I called the Export Land Model (ELM), which is a simple mathematical model which examines what happens to net oil exports, given increasing internal consumption versus an ongoing decline in production in a net oil exporting country.

Based on the ELM, we can conclude that given an ongoing production decline in a net oil exporting country, unless they cut their internal consumption at the same rate as the rate of decline in production, or at a faster rate, the resulting net export decline rate will exceed the production decline rate, and the net export decline rate will accelerate with time.

Mexico’s production peaked in 2004 at 3.83 mbpd (million barrels per day, as defined above). Their 2004 liquids consumption was 2.07 mbpd, resulting in 2004 net exports of 1.76 mbpd.

Their initial 2004 to 2005 rate of change in production was -1.7%, and their initial rate of change in consumption was +2.2%/year, resulting in a 2004 to 2005 net export rate of change of -6.7%/year. In simple percentage terms, a 1.7% decline in production, plus rising consumption, resulted in a 6.4% decline in net oil exports, from 2004 to 2005.

Their 2004 to 2012 rate of change in production was -3.4%/year, and their rate of change in consumption was +0.7%/year, resulting in a 2004 to 2012 rate of change in net oil exports of -11.1%/year. In simple percentage terms, a 24% decline in production, plus rising consumption, resulted in a 59% decline in net oil exports, from 2004 to 2012, with net oil exports falling from 1.76 mbpd in 2004 to 0.72 mbpd in 2012.

The rate of change in their ECI ratio, the ratio of liquids production to liquids consumption, fell from 1.8 in 2004 to 1.3 in 2012 (at an ECI ratio of 1.0, net oil exports would be zero). At the 2004 to 2012 rate of decline in Mexico’s ECI ratio, they would approach zero net oil exports in about six years, around the year 2019.

Based on the 2004 to 2012 rate of decline in Mexico’s ECI ratio, their estimated post-2004 Cumulative Net Exports of oil (CNE) are about 4.2 Gb (billion barrels). They shipped a total of 3.2 Gb in net exports from 2005 to 2012 inclusive, which suggests that Mexico’s post-2004 CNE are already about three-fourths depleted, which would be a post-2004 CNE depletion rate of about 18%/year through 2012, i.e., the rate at which Mexico is depleting their post-2004 cumulative supply of net oil exports. This is completely consistent with what we have seen in other regions, e.g., Indonesia, as they approached zero net oil exports. Note that Mexico was the third largest supplier of net crude oil imports into the US in 2012 (EIA).

Mexico’s net export decline was a contributor to the regional post-2004 decline we have seen in net oil exports. The seven major Western Hemisphere net oil exporters in 2004 were Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Trinidad & Tobago, Colombia, Argentina and Ecuador, i.e., countries with in the Western Hemisphere with net oil exports of 100,000 bpd or more in 2004. Their combined net oil exports fell from 5.9 mbpd in 2004 to 5.0 mbpd in 2012 (EIA). In other words, rising net oil exports from Canada have only served to slow the overall post-2004 regional decline in net oil exports.

Link to ECI article (Using BP + EIA data):
http://peak-oil.org/2013/02/commentary-the-export-capacity-index/

Jeffrey J. Brown


Do you have any fresh data on Mexco net oil export/imports?
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 23:34:07

Sub - As of last Sept Mexico was importing 960,000 bbls of refinery products per day from the US. That same month the US imported 516,000 bbls of oil per day from Mexico. During that same month the US exported 4 bcf per day to Mexico. Do you think a few here are surprised to learn that Mexico is a NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER from the US? Are you? Actually back in 2015 Blomberg noted that for the first time in 20 years the US became a NET FF EXPORTER to Mexico.

Can't find info on total Mexican oil exports. I suspect their govt doesn't release such details. I have the suspicion that on a revenue basis Mexico has become a NET ENERGY IMPORTER. IOW they ceased being a net supplier of energy to the US possibly as long as 2 years ago.

Probably confuses folks who read an analysis like the following which fails to mention the fossil fuel exports to Mexico from the US. Makes one think the US is more dependent on ff imports from Mexico instead of vice versa, eh?

"Mexico is a major producer of petroleum and other liquids and is among the largest sources of U.S. oil imports. Mexico is one of the largest producers of petroleum and other liquids in the world. Mexico is also the fourth-largest producer in the Americas after the United States, Canada, and Brazil, and an important partner in U.S. energy trade. In 2015, Mexico accounted for 688,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 9%, of U.S. crude oil imports."

And as off Sept total Mexican oil production was 2.17 million/day.
As usual all stats are from the EIA.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 01:21:25

ROCKMAN wrote:Sub - As of last Sept Mexico was importing 960,000 bbls of refinery products per day from the US. That same month the US imported 516,000 bbls of oil per day from Mexico. During that same month the US exported 4 bcf per day to Mexico. Do you think a few here are surprised to learn that Mexico is a NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER from the US? Are you? Actually back in 2015 Blomberg noted that for the first time in 20 years the US became a NET FF EXPORTER to Mexico.

Can't find info on total Mexican oil exports. I suspect their govt doesn't release such details. I have the suspicion that on a revenue basis Mexico has become a NET ENERGY IMPORTER. IOW they ceased being a net supplier of energy to the US possibly as long as 2 years ago.

Probably confuses folks who read an analysis like the following which fails to mention the fossil fuel exports to Mexico from the US. Makes one think the US is more dependent on ff imports from Mexico instead of vice versa, eh?

"Mexico is a major producer of petroleum and other liquids and is among the largest sources of U.S. oil imports. Mexico is one of the largest producers of petroleum and other liquids in the world. Mexico is also the fourth-largest producer in the Americas after the United States, Canada, and Brazil, and an important partner in U.S. energy trade. In 2015, Mexico accounted for 688,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 9%, of U.S. crude oil imports."

And as off Sept total Mexican oil production was 2.17 million/day.
As usual all stats are from the EIA.



Thanks! Back when I just lurked and read around here I remember it being ahot topic that within a few years Mexico would flip from being an exporter to being an importer. For whatever reason that fact is being ignored or obscured by the mainstream media as if it were a naughty little secret.

Yes, that quote sure makes it sound like America is depending on Mexican oil exports instead of the real situation that they are depending on American product exports instead. Puts a whole different slant on who would be hurt by renegotiation of NAFTA between our two countries, doesn't it?
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 01:35:39

And now step back and look at the bigger picture with respect to total trade with Mexico. From your friendly govt:

"U.S.goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $583.6 billion in 2015. Exports were $267.2 billion; imports were $316.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was -$49.2 billion in 2015.

Mexico is currently our 3rd largest goods trading partner with $531 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2015. Goods exports totaled $236 billion; goods imports totaled $295 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $58 billion in 2015.

Trade in services with Mexico (exports and imports) totaled an estimated $52.4 billion in 2015. Services exports were $30.8 billion; services imports were $21.6 billion. The U.S. services trade surplus with Mexico was $9.2 billion in 2015.

According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico supported an estimated 1.1 million jobs in 2014 (latest data available) (953 thousand supported by goods exports and 193 thousand supported by services exports)."
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 17:32:57

ROCKMAN wrote:And now step back and look at the bigger picture with respect to total trade with Mexico. From your friendly govt:

"U.S.goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $583.6 billion in 2015. Exports were $267.2 billion; imports were $316.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was -$49.2 billion in 2015.

Mexico is currently our 3rd largest goods trading partner with $531 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2015. Goods exports totaled $236 billion; goods imports totaled $295 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $58 billion in 2015.

Trade in services with Mexico (exports and imports) totaled an estimated $52.4 billion in 2015. Services exports were $30.8 billion; services imports were $21.6 billion. The U.S. services trade surplus with Mexico was $9.2 billion in 2015.

According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico supported an estimated 1.1 million jobs in 2014 (latest data available) (953 thousand supported by goods exports and 193 thousand supported by services exports)."


I am not opposed to trade and maybe I just don't understand what these numbers actually mean, but doesn't that put usin a trade surplus with Mexico instead of the other way around?
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 17:56:45

Sub - Without splitting hairs it looks relatively balanced. The good news: exports to Mexico create a lot of jobs and profits. Bad news: how many jobs have been lost to Mexico? I've read that Mexico is in a deep hole with China but couldn't find the number. But stumbled on this chart of China trade. Says it all about production commence, eh?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 23 May 2017, 19:32:51

A potential small ray of hope for Mexico to increase oil production. Falling under the category of "They that can afford to do it will do it. And those that can't partner with those that can":

"For the first time in almost 80 years, a private company has sunk a new offshore oil well in Mexican waters -- the latest step in the country’s drive to allow foreign competitors back into its energy markets.

A joint venture of Premier Oil, Talos Energy and Mexico’s Sierra Oil & Gas began drilling the well May 21. It’s the first offshore exploration well to be launched by anyone other than state-run monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos since the country nationalized its oil industry in 1938.

The Zama-1 well, in the Sureste Basin off the state of Tabasco, holds an estimated 100 million to 500 million barrels of crude, Premier said in the statement. Drilling is expected to take up to 90 days to complete, at a cost to Premier of $16 million. The three companies won rights to the prospect in 2015, in the first round of bidding after Mexico voted to open its ailing oil industry to private investment.

“it is the first non-Pemex well to be drilled since the opening up of Mexican waters as part of the country’s energy reform process," Elaine Reynolds said. The structure of the basin suggests the project has “a high geological chance of success."
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Pemex makes Mexico’s biggest onshore oil find in 15 years

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 10:34:19


Mexico’s national oil company Pemex has made its biggest onshore oil discovery in 15 years with a find in the eastern state of Veracruz, President Enrique Pena Nieto said on Friday. Tanker trucks of state-owned company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) are seen in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico October 4, 2017. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez Pena Nieto said Pemex made the discovery by drilling its onshore Ixachi well, near the municipality of Cosamaloapan, and that the overall field is believed to hold some 350 million barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves. Pena Nieto, who pushed through Congress a sweeping energy reform in 2013 that ended Pemex’ decades-long monopoly, made the announcement at the company’s Tula refinery. He was flanked by his energy minister, Pemex’ chief executive and a range of other government and union officials. While crude export revenue once contributed as much as 40 percent


Pemex makes Mexico’s biggest onshore oil find in 15 years
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 13:38:49

Looking at the latest Pemex statistics release can be quite illuminating.

PEMEX

Average daily oil production, MM/bbl/d

2012 2,913
2013 2,882
2014 2,788
2015 2,591
2016 2,458
2017 2,250 as of October 31 and falling steadily

IOW Mexico has lost 663,000/bbl/d of production since January 1, 2012 by their own statistics.

During the same period PEMEX claims to have exported the following quantities of MM/bbl/d.

2012 1,255
2013 1,189
2014 1,142
2015 1,172
2016 1,194
2017 1,130 as of October 31.

The decrease in exports is only 125,000 bbl/d which was only achievable by reducing internal consumption to make up the difference in falling production.
663,000-125,000 = 538,000 reduction in internal consumption despite the relatively low prices for petroleum in 2015, 2016 and most of 2017.

It appears to me that PEMEX did its best to maintain income by exporting a greater percentage of its oil during the price slump, but there is a limit to how far they can maintain exports without totally crashing the domestic economy in areas dependent on refined fuel consumption.

This story is from one year ago and the story has not improved in the last 12 months, in fact it has gotten worse with every interruption like the shortfall caused by Harvey making landfall and disrupting the industry.
Gasoline shortages continue in at least 13 states, resulting in long line-ups at gas stations, panic buying and unrest among consumers as Pemex has been unable to resolve supply problems.

The affected states are Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Oaxaca, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Morelos, Jalisco, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Durango and San Luis Potosí.

It was in the latter that disgruntled citizens took to protesting, blocking the main highways into the capital city as well as its main streets.

Government officials posted on Twitter that the gasoline shortages were caused by consumers and panic buying, a situation that was only worsened by the blockades, they added.

While that may have been true in San Luis Potosí, it wasn’t the case elsewhere in the country, where Pemex officials have tried to justify the situation in several ways.

In Jalisco, the December vacation break was cited as the main reason for a 50% surge in demand for gasoline and diesel.

Production was also affected by a revision and overhaul of obsolete equipment in some refineries, the oil company said, along with pipeline problems.

NEWS GAS SHORTAGE DECEMBER 2016

This is a classic example of the Export Land Model in action, you can cut domestic consumption in favor of exports to a certain extent, but sooner or later you hit the wall and have to lower exports to prevent domestic unrest and potentially revolution. Mexico has been a poorly managed country for decades and as a result it is much more like Venezuela than the USA. Oil profits during the high value years were squandered rather than being invested in future production or replacing aged equipment and as a result they now find themselves in a precarious situation.

Even worse the Permian basin and Eagle Ford basins where the USA is producing large volumes of fracked oil and gas extend across the international border into Mexico making it likely that Mexico could greatly increase production for a decade or longer with a shale boom of their own, but distrust of the government and mismanagement mean little progress has been made in exploiting these resources for the benefit of Mexicans living in Mexico.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 18:19:43

Tanada wrote:This is a classic example of the Export Land Model in action, you can cut domestic consumption in favor of exports to a certain extent, but sooner or later you hit the wall and have to lower exports to prevent domestic unrest and potentially revolution.


The ELM is not classic. It is just another discredited peak oil related equation. And according to its author, we (we meaning, like, all humans) were supposed to be in its catastrophic grip back in 2006.

On April 5, 2006, Jeffrey Brown (aka "Westexas") made the following prediction:

"As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis."

Hat Tip to JD


The particulars of its functioning were also dispatched by JD.

Now, let us back up a second and discuss this more at the conceptual level, where it might be applicable. Might.

If I understand the basic idea, Jeffrey is really saying nothing more than within a given locale, said locale producing more oil than it consumes, the natural decline rate conceptualized by bell shaped peak oil curves (no need to go into how badly that assumption works out) and increasing local consumption provide opposing forces conspiring to accelerate the decrease in available exports. Until there are no exports, and worse yet, the locale can't meet its own consumption. At which point this causes doom, mad max, collapse, whatever the peak oil nonsense du jour was durring the bad old peak oil days.

Mexico meets the criteria of this general concept which, for the record, was hardly invented by Jeffrey, and is conceptualized quite well with run of the mill supply/demand curves, modeled with exogenous interference (itself operating under the same principle but on a larger scale).

As we now know, peak oil isn't a singular event, it can happen multiple times, so any use of the classic ELM idea has to include this reality. Jeffrey's concept does not. As we also know, changes in demand because of price increases, conservation and substitution, are also applicable within the same locale. Jeffrey's concept does not include any of these concepts either.

So no, ELM is not relevant because it doesn't include all the mechanisms that we know can interfere with it, mechanisms that Jeffrey ignores because...lets be honest...he built it back in the days when economists were being denigrated for not understanding peak oil. Turns out, they knew more than geologists did of what a supply response to price look like. But the general concept of supply and demand within a given local, and exogenous effects, does fit what is happening to Mexico. As to what happens next...well..that is another conversation. But it would not include the ELM.

Tanada wrote:Mexico has been a poorly managed country for decades and as a result it is much more like Venezuela than the USA. Oil profits during the high value years were squandered rather than being invested in future production or replacing aged equipment and as a result they now find themselves in a precarious situation.


And has had 2, perhaps 3, prior peak oils (if memory serves). So might this new one be #3 or #4? Could be. The poor management you mention has a direct link to WHY multiple peak oils can happen, and any country dependent on resource development runs the risk of the resource curse.

For oil exporting countries dependent on those revenues, the world is changing under their feet and they better figure out something quick, or be buried (economically speaking) by the tsunami of new tech that the developed world is applying to solving their liquid fuel consumption problem.

Tanada wrote:Even worse the Permian basin and Eagle Ford basins where the USA is producing large volumes of fracked oil and gas extend across the international border into Mexico making it likely that Mexico could greatly increase production for a decade or longer with a shale boom of their own, but distrust of the government and mismanagement mean little progress has been made in exploiting these resources for the benefit of Mexicans living in Mexico.


Hence..more peak oils possible for Mexico. But I wouldn't worry about the US success spilling over into the Burgos Basin quite yet. There is something very specific going on with international shale development, and it isn't the quality or quantity of resource available, but more the economics of development. As Harold is fond of saying, you gotta have the 3 R's. Rigs, rednecks and royalties. I can figure out how to populate a country with the first 2...but that 3rd one is the trick....
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 20:47:19

AdamB wrote:Mexico ....has had 2, perhaps 3, prior peak oils (if memory serves). So might this new one be #3 or #4? Could be.....


What multiple peaks are you babbling about?

The oil production data clearly shows that Mexican conventional oil production peaked ca. 2004-5 and since then has declined. This reflects the loss of oil from Cantarell---the only supergiant field in Mexico---which started its decline ca. 2005.

Mexican conventional oil production is currently down by about 1/3 from its peak.

mexico-peak

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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 21:27:43

Mexican conventional oil production is currently down by about 1/3 from its peak.


which is because Pemex was badly organized, they did incredibly stupid stuff at Canteral and although they were pretty good explorers after they kicked everyone out a few decades ago they have been probably the worst developers of oil and gas reserves that I have ever seen. This is why the new bid rounds which will bring in foreign operators has so much promise. There are a lot of fields that have recoveries well below what should be expected, many of them still producing under 1960's or even earlier technology. Amazing low hanging fruit all along the Golden Lane. And when they get going with the Eagleford continuation into northern MX there will be a significant impact.
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