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THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 21:59:05

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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby phaster » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 16:05:47

evilgenius wrote:With the current glut in world oil there are plenty of people who have let go of peak oil as a driving force in world affairs. I'm not one of them. To me, the glut is the predictable result of prices rising so high, being derived from a more purely conventionally extracted market, that so-called unconventional sources became affordable to produce. Before fracking there were the large actors, those with huge reserves, and the smaller actors, those with some off-shore or some small fields. It was generally accepted that the smaller actors would peter out at their own pace, and that only the large actors would be left on the scene. It was the view that, eventually, we would be left with only the large Middle Eastern states and Venezuela and Nigeria. The assumption was that Saudi Arabia would be a key player at that time.

Fracking in the US changed that. The US has proven that they can produce as much oil as Saudi Arabia, on a daily basis. It took high oil prices for that to be realized. Suffice it to say that, for the near term, fracking has introduced another kind of actor. As a result, there is too much oil for high oil prices to be sustained.

In the past, Saudi Arabia has always been considered the swing producer. As such, they have been the de facto market maker when it comes to oil prices. Like General Motors, who were always able to produce cars more cheaply than any other manufacturer, they called the shots in terms of pricing. This time around, that has changed. The introduction of another actor has destabilized the former order. This new actor, the fracking actor, responds more significantly to high oil prices because it derives its capital from that scenario. Also, although it may be weak (experiencing many bankruptcies) before lower oil prices, because it relies upon the financial realm for much of its existence, and not just oil revenue, it has proven to have staying power in the face of lower prices. The fracking actor's creditors are happy with high output and the promise of better prices to come, or they are happy with bankruptcy, so to speak. This thinking will only be exacerbated by the recessions yet to come, brought about by the constantly swaying dynamics of both peak oil and slowing world growth. Fracking will endure.

Saudi Arabia doesn't enjoy the same edge when it comes to enduring this glut's low oil prices. This time around the Saudis are suffering under the weight of a highly developed largess economy that became the norm because nobody expected low prices would come that were not the result of Saudi provocation. Alas, this glut was not of their making. Thus, they will have to take drastic measures to deal with it. They are going to cut government spending. They are going to hack at the largess.

I think the Saudi measures to deal with the current glut will create a successful, to one degree or another, private sector in Saudi Arabia. This will be good for the Saudis. It will be bad for the world, in about fifteen or twenty years. I think that because I believe the introduction of a successful private sector in Saudi Arabia will result in the operation of the Export Land Model to a much more drastic extent than it would have under the regime of government largess. The extent of the impact of the Export Land Model under the regime of government largess was always baked into the former assumptions in regards to the essential position the kingdom would have at the point in the future when only the original large actors were left. The impact of a successful private sector has not been baked into those assumptions. When the time comes the Saudis won't have very much oil left over, after what goes into their own economy, to supply the world with anything like what was expected under the old model.

Fracking won't last any longer than they can wring the various formations at high expense of what oil is in them, the fifteen or twenty years I mentioned. It will, however, last long enough to ensure this. The Saudis will never be able to entertain a largess style economy again. Every time they try it the frackers will produce more. It will be a spiral towards a more and more efficient private sector in Saudi Arabia, probably a bumpy looking spiral, but a spiral in retrospect.


a few months ago there was a series of podcasts that enlightened me a bit as to details of the local "oil" business which pointed out "small" independent producers here in the USA do react to global prices

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/ ... y-buys-oil

as you mention KSA has historically been the price trend setter, but with new technology like slick water fracking small oil producers are now able to quickly react to higher prices for oil

this seems to confirm a comment I heard in a podcast that the "peak" is going to be more like a plateau that goes on for decades (which in the grand scheme of things is still like a blink of an eye in terms of geological time)
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Mon 24 Oct 2016, 14:03:49

phaster wrote:this seems to confirm a comment I heard in a podcast that the "peak" is going to be more like a plateau that goes on for decades (which in the grand scheme of things is still like a blink of an eye in terms of geological time)

The plateau may last for decades. Or it may last only as long as consumers have enough money to pay for the high priced fuel that will be needed to keep that plateau (since conventional fields will keep on depleting along the way).
But I see many places that pay double what Americans pay for fuel, and they seem to do ok.
Maybe we will build public transit, start buying EV's, carpool a great deal more, etc, etc.
But that will cut down on demand (ending the plateau). All that will probably take decades, so maybe the podcast was right.
I don't know why, but I feel that we don't have decades before a real collapse. I can't support that with facts, so I am probably just talking to myself here. I do that sometimes. I think trying to predict the future is usually beer drinking bullshit anyway, so we will just have to wait and see.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 25 Oct 2016, 10:42:06

In Canada over the summer. In Newfoundland they had a sticker on the gas pump that defined the taxes. They were 58% of the total cost,ma out $5/gallon. Zero mass or public transit due to the very low population density. A fair number of small cars. But also a lot of 4wd trucks as needed for snow, ice, etc. in bad roads.

Not everyone lives in a city.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 25 Oct 2016, 11:34:03

"...as to details of the local "oil" business which pointed out "small" independent producers here in the USA do react to global prices. I work for a small independent in Texas. I couldn't care less oil sells for "globally"...whatever that means. And as far as the price I sell the oil I produce in Texas I couldn't less how oil is priced in Texas, such as WTI.
I barge my oil to Lake Charles, La. where I get paid LLS...Light Louisiana Sweet. Which is usually several $'s higher.

And folks drilling the Eagle Ford in S Texas don't care what they are playing for oil in Lake Charles when they are making drilling decisions. And they sure as hell react to changes in WTI much more then Brent or Bonnie Light. Which brings back to my earlier: what exactly is the "global price" of oil today?
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 22:33:51

ROCKMAN wrote:"...think Bush should have included the KSA in his Axes of Evil." Unfortunately the US has a long history of siding with one different axis or or another if it APPEARS to suit our goals. Like France: we should have sided with the Vietnamese and bitchslapped the Frogs. LOL.

Seriously...Vietnam would have made a great Asian ally for the US.


And lost France for NATO membership.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 23:24:19

KSA 2015, per BP data:

Production 12.014 mbod
Consumption 3.895 mbod
That leaves 8.1 mbod for export.

(Refinery capacity was 2.899 mbod. I know they have some chemical industry in addition to just refining the crude (or don't they?) and that might add some exports of oil products. Or maybe the difference between refining capacity and consumption gets burned in their power plants)

In 2015 the total world production was 91 mbod, i.e. KSA has a market share of 8.5%. Now if you go back a few years:
2005: Production 10.9, KSA consumption 2.2, KSA exports 8.7, World production 84. KSA share is 10.5%.
1995: Production 9.0, KSA consumption 1.3, KSA exports 7.7, World production 75. KSA share is 10.3%.

If I'm not mistaken, Saudi market share has dropped a fifth in the past ten years.

Anyway, assume they want to drive prices higher and cut production by 2 mbod. They export only 8 out of 12 mbod, so that cuts their revenue by 25% overnight. At a time when they already face a budget crunch, cost of living soars and the population gets the pitchforks ready. In the meantime they fight a war in Yemen (with mercenaries) and finance several ... groups of people with strong opinions. Their arms purchases, which buy them a lot of friends in the US and Europe, are astronomical. Oh, and the number of princes increases exponentially.

And cutting that 2 mbd of oil, which amounts to 1/45 of world production, brings the market back into balance ... when? Anybody with some spare capacity could open the tap. Anybody with oil prospects that would be profitable at $50 calls his banker the same day and his driller the next. That cancels out some of the effect. So when does the oil price climb back to $75 or $100, if it does at all? For how long do you live on 75% of your former income when your expenses are higher than ever?

And about "opening the tap":
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oil Prod 11144 11635 11393 11505 12014
Consumpt. 3295 3462 3469 3732 3895
Exports 7849 8172 7924 7773 8119

In 2015 they exported as much as in 2013. And the increase from '14 to '15 was half a million b/d - but rising local consumption alone ate up 160 kb/d of that. Compared to US and Canadian production:

Year 2013 2014 2015
US 10059 11723 12704
Can 4000 4278 4385
Total 14059 16001 17089
At the same time when the KSA added 340 kb/d to their exports, North America added a million b/d to its production. And another two million in 2014, when the Saudis exported less than before.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Zarquon » Fri 04 Nov 2016, 00:20:13

evilgenius wrote:Fracking won't last any longer than they can wring the various formations at high expense of what oil is in them, the fifteen or twenty years I mentioned. It will, however, last long enough to ensure this. The Saudis will never be able to entertain a largess style economy again. Every time they try it the frackers will produce more. It will be a spiral towards a more and more efficient private sector in Saudi Arabia, probably a bumpy looking spiral, but a spiral in retrospect.


That'll be an uphill struggle. I remember reading that back in '85 or so, when Prince Bandar was given a free ride in the Space Shuttle by one of his US drinking buddies, the Grand Poobah (I don't remember his exact title but the highest religious authority) in SA proclaimed that the news stories about a Saudi prince circling the earth must be false because the Holy Book states that the earth is flat. The prince had to fly home and carefully explain to him that maybe that particular sura maybe had to be re-interpreted. The funny part is that IIRC the Grand Poobah is in charge of all public education in Saudi Arabia, from preschool to university. Granted, it's been thirty years. But how long does it take to change a culture? In my opinion it's a matter of generations before fundamental attitudes change, not a few years. For most people, the ideas you grew up with stay with you a lifetime.

About a third of degrees in SA are in islamic theology, islamic history and islamic law. And half of the other degrees are obtained by women, who then get locked up in the kitchen. They'd be on their way into the 21st century when they figured out how to teach the new disciplines of islamic physics or islamic software engineering.
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What else do you need for a successful private sector?
- Infrastructure can be bought, but that's a slow process and a further drain on the resources until the economy can pay for its upkeep.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_sup ... udi_Arabia
"Drinking water. Despite clear improvements the quality of service remains insufficient. For example, few cities enjoy continued service, and water pressure is often inadequate. In Riyadh water was available only once every 2.5 days in 2011, while in Jeddah it is available only every 9 days. This is still better than in 2008, when the respective figures were 5 and 23 days."

- Capital. Which needs to be convinced that long-term investments are safe, which means political stability. And the influx of capital needs to be substantially higher than the money that flees the country.
- The good old rule of law comes to mind. Are Saudi courts willing to convict a Saudi prince who swindled you out of your investment? If not, you'd better cultivate relations with a higher-ranking prince, i.e. pay him off.
- People willing to work more than four hours a day and who accept that their job isn't guaranteed for life. Now we're back to cultural issues.

I know they're trying, but their population still grows 2% per year, water gets scarce and simply throwing money at the diversification problem isn't going to help.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 04 Nov 2016, 16:54:45

Z - "And lost France for NATO membership." And would have left NATO an empty shell unable to achieve all the glorious victories it has racked up the last 40 years. LOL. Seems like we have a greater need for a PATO these days: Pacific Asian Treaty Organization. I suspect with US support for the last 4 decades Vietnam might look like a very different player these days.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Revi » Wed 09 Nov 2016, 13:54:18

Amid the election news was this little tidbit from ZeroHedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-0 ... n-projects

Saudi also announced that they were not going to sell any more oil to Egypt.

That means that 94 million people will soon get restive.
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Re: What I Think Will Happen to Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 09 Nov 2016, 15:12:44

FWIW a lot of transit agencies do the same thing, sit on funds as long as they can. I'm awaiting small fee for services rendered 4 years ago. My bit was small, but the prime is being stuffed also, an amount equal or exceeding his entire profit margin.
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Saudi Computer Virus: It's Back

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 01 Feb 2017, 09:06:21

Saudi Arabia warns destructive computer virus has returned

Saudi Arabia is warning that a computer virus that destroyed systems of its state-run oil company in 2012 has returned to the kingdom, with at least one major petrochemical company apparently affected by its spread.

Suspicion for the initial dispersal of the Shamoon virus in 2012 fell on Iran as it came after the Stuxnet cyberattack targeting Tehran's contested nuclear enrichment program.

It wasn't immediately clear who could be responsible for the new infection, though the relations between regional rivals remain tense.

A report Monday by Saudi state-run television included comments suggesting that 15 government agencies and private institutions had been hit by the Shamoon virus, including the Saudi Labor Ministry. The ministry said it was working with the Interior Ministry to contain the virus.

Sadara, a joint venture between the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Michigan-based Dow Chemical Co., shut down its computer network Monday over a disruption.

Company spokesman Sami Amin said its network remained down Tuesday, though it hadn't affected operations at the facility. He declined to comment further.

Sadara is based in Jubail Industrial City, which sits about 100 kilometers (60 miles) northwest of the eastern Saudi city of Dammam in the heartland of the kingdom's oil industry. The $20 billion facility, inaugurated by Saudi King Salman in late November, includes 26 manufacturing units that will produce more than 3 million metric tons of plastics and chemical products.

Another state-run TV report on Tuesday said the Saudi Technical and Vocational Training Corp. was affected, though a spokesman denied the virus did any damage to its network.

Symantec Corp., a California-based security firm, warned in late November that Shamoon had been spotted again in Saudi Arabia. Computers affected had their hard drives erased and displayed a photograph of the body of 3-year-old Syrian boy Aylan Kurdi, who drowned fleeing his country's civil war, Symantec said.

"Why Shamoon has suddenly returned again after four years is unknown," Symantec said . "However, with its highly destructive payload, it is clear that the attackers want their targets to sit up and take notice."

The November attacks apparently involved previously stolen passwords. Symantec on Monday said the outbreak might be linked to a group it called Greenbug, which previously attacked targets in Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey with emails carrying malicious attachments. ...
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Re: Saudi Computer Virus: It's Back

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 09:56:46

Saudi Arabia Issues Shamoon 2 Alert

A new variant of the Shamoon data-wiping malware—whose previous greatest hits include taking down Saudi Aramco in 2012—is again attacking various high-level Saudi organizations.

An alert issued by the telecom authority of Saudi Arabia said that Shamoon 2 is behind new attacks on the labor ministry and a chemicals firm, reports Reuters.

At the end of last year, security firm CrowdStrike noted that Shamoon was back, with the Iranian government likely behind it.

“This new variant of Shamoon kept many of its original tactics, down to the commercial raw disk ElDos driver that was used for disk wiping (including the original trial license key for this driver) that had been used in the original attacks,” the firm noted in a blog. “That ElDos trial key was only valid for 30 days and expired by September 2012. In order to continue to use the key, the wiper now has to reset the Windows system clock back to August 2012 to manipulate the license validation process.”

And indeed, in December, Saudi Arabia's state news agency confirmed that a cyberattack had recently occurred "on various government institutions and agencies,” and that "the attacks aimed at disabling all equipment and services that were being provided. The attackers were stealing data from the system and were planting viruses.”

Now, Jubail-based Sadara Chemical Co, a joint venture firm owned by Saudi Aramco and Dow Chemical, has confirmed a network disruption earlier this week, and said it was working to resolve the issue. And it’s not alone: Sources told Reuters that other companies headquartered in Jubail—the Kingdom’s petrochemical hub—have also been taken offline (as a precaution against the virus) after network incidents likely tied to Shamoon 2.

It’s a disturbing state of affairs considering that Shamoon (aka DistTrack) has destroyed, per TrapX Security research, more than 30,000 systems. The newest version of Shamoon spreads and destroys data even faster than before, the firm added.

“Shamoon’s malevolent objective is simple: Shamoon is designed to infect and destroy the maximum number of systems in a target organization,” said Moshe Ben-Simon, co-founder and vice president of TrapX Security.

Shamoon, like many other sophisticated weaponized attack tools, has been crafted to hide from discovery and protect itself from standard cyber defense such as sandbox analysis.


“The adversary is using a combination of social engineering and email phishing to infect one or a number of computers on an organisation’s networks. By downloading a file or clicking a link, employees may have unknowingly downloaded an exploit kit. Once infected, the computer rapidly performs port sweeps across the subnet and quickly spreads the malware to all hosts on the subnet. To inflict the most damage, the adversary will attempt to affect multiple computers in order to destroy data on every subnet across the network.

“Shamoon 2, like Shamoon that struck the oil company Saudi Aramco in 2012, moves extremely rapidly with the sole objective of destroying systems and bringing a business to its knees. Because the malware avoids using command and control communications, the only way to detect and respond in real time is to monitor the internal network for attacker behavior and traditional security such as firewalls, IDS/IPS and Web gateways are not effective.


Ongoing Shamoon Malware Attacks Linked to Greenbug Cyber Espionage Group

Symantec researchers say they're investigating links between the Greenbug cyber espionage group and a new series of Shamoon malware attacks in the Middle East

The Symantec researchers note that the malware "required other means to be deployed on targeted organizations' networks and is configured with previously stolen credentials." It's possible, they suggest, that Greenbug may have been responsible for acquiring those credentials.

"Greenbug was discovered targeting a range of organizations in the Middle East including companies in the aviation, energy, government, investment, and education sectors," the researchers write. "The group uses a custom information-stealing remote access Trojan (RAT) known as Trojan.Ismdoor as well as a selection of hacking tools to steal sensitive credentials from compromised organizations."

Notably, the Greenbug group, which Symantec says has exclusive access to the Trojan.Ismdoor malware, compromised at least one administrator's computer in a Shamoon-targeted organization's network prior to the Shamoon malware being deployed in that network on November 17, 2016.

Between June and November of 2016, Symantec reports, the Greenbug group used phishing attacks to target organizations involved in aviation, government, investment and education in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey.
Last edited by vox_mundi on Fri 03 Feb 2017, 10:31:53, edited 1 time in total.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Saudi Computer Virus: It's Back

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 10:12:09

Is this the work of independent hackers, mercenary hackers,or an attack from a particular govt. intelligence group? Article says it probably was Iran.
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Saudi Arabias Great Deportation program @work

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 10:42:11

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 78151.html

Saudi Arabia ‘deports 40,000 Pakistani workers over terror fears’
Thousands of foreign national workers allegedly expelled from country over visa violations and security concerns, as protests over unpaid wages continue....

Image
Bethan McKernan Beirut @mck_beth Monday 13 February 2017 15:59 GMT
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 78151.html

*****************
While the West dump Trump the Saudi Kingdom is making deportation facts.

sputnik news wrote that SA plans to deport 20% of its population while SA cannot feed the 10ths of millions to come.

https://de.sputniknews.com/politik/2017 ... schiebung/

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Saudi seeks 10% renewable energy in six years

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 11:01:55

Saudi seeks 10% renewable energy in six years: minister

Image

Saudi Arabia wants 10 percent of its electricity to come from renewable sources within several years as part of a transformation in its power sector, the energy minister said Monday.

Khaled al-Falih said his country, the world's biggest oil exporter, will also sell renewable energy and its technology abroad.

At a forum seeking investment in the sector, he announced "30 projects to be implemented" in order to reach a goal of about 10 gigawatts of renewable energy production early next decade. Virtually all of the kingdom's domestic power currently comes from crude, refined oil or natural gas.

He has said the projects could cost between $30 billion and $50 billion.

"The percentage of renewable energy by 2023 will represent 10 percent of the total electricity of the kingdom," he said at the start of the Saudi Arabia Renewable Energy Investment Forum.

"We are seeking for the kingdom, in the medium term, to become a nation that develops, manufactures and exports the advanced technologies of renewable energy production," he said.

"This is really transformational," he said, suggesting that the changes coming to the kingdom's energy sector will be as significant as the discovery of oil in the 1930s.

Falih told the forum that nuclear power will also be part of the kingdom's energy mix.

Saudi Arabia has been for years trying to diversify its energy mix so that it can export more of its oil, rather than burning it at power and water desalination plants, but progress has been slow.

Power demand in the desert kingdom is growing 8% annually, forcing state-run Saudi Electricity, the Gulf's largest utility company, to spend billions of dollars on projects to add capacity.

The kingdom produces very little renewable energy, representing less than 1% of the total produced, but under an economic reform program approved by King Salman last year, it targets renewable energy contributing 3,450 megawatts to the national energy mix by 2020, equating to 4% of energy use in the kingdom.

Its finances strained by low oil prices, Riyadh wants to conduct many of its future infrastructure projects through partnerships in which private companies from within the kingdom and abroad would bear much of the cost and risk.
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Saudi Capital Riad under Jemen Burkan2 missile strike

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 19 May 2017, 15:31:26

Breaking: Yemeni forces strike Saudi capital with ballistic missiles ahead of Trump visit

SANA’A, YEMEN (10:20 P.M.) – Yemeni forces loyal to Houthi movement and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh launched a missile strike on Saudi capital of Riyadh.

According to emerging reports, missile division of Yemeni Army fired two “Burkan-2” surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

Minutes after Al Masirah TV channel reported the strike, Saudi fighter jets had been noticed buzzing in the sky over Sana’a.


https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... ump-visit/

http://www.insanhaber.com/dunya/son-dak ... 94874.html

Son Dakika: Yemen Trump'ın ineceği Riyad'a füze saldırısında bulundu iddiası
Yemen'in Suudi Arabistan'ın başkenti Riyad'a balistik füze fırlattığı iddia ediliyor.


19 Mayıs 2017 Cuma 22:09

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbRZBd4ByAU
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What is happening in KSA

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 14:33:12

What is happening in KSA ? Any POV ? Is it trouble ?
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Re: What is happening in KSA

Unread postby Cog » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 15:30:54

Other than naming a successor to the throne the Kingdom seems as stable as ever. The new guy is young and he is modern in his thinking. A plus.
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Re: What is happening in KSA

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 15:40:26

I wish it was as simple as all that . You think that the branch of the family that was superseded is going to sit quiet ? What about the other 3000 royal members ? Were they asked or just bulldozed ? This is a feudal society where feuds and enmities are for generations to come . Then there are the Wahibbi clerics ,the real power behind the throne . Did not hear approval from the Mufti"s of Mecca and Medina . I wish there is no problem and everything works out smoothly because if there is turmoil in KSA it will only make the existing bad situation worse in the financial system .
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