Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstated?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstated?

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 10 May 2017, 04:49:05

A fascinating, recent report by the Devonshire Research Group, whose recent work on Tesla was featured here one year ago, has moved beyond the micro and tackled on of the most controversial macroeconomic topic possible: what is the true rate of inflation. What it finds is that, like others before it most notably Shadowstats and Chapwood, the accepted definition of inflation, or CPI, is dramatically understated for various reasons, both political and economic.


Needless to say, if and to the extent that the Contrarians are correct, the implications for the U.S. economy and for investors are profound

The Standard of Living may be far more difficult for many Americans to maintain than published statistics suggest
Real Economic Growth may be flatter or actually negative, suggesting a prolonged 21st century recession, not recovery
Real Interest Rates, already seen at historic lows, may be strongly negative making Fixed Income returns unattractive
The Cost of Capital most commonly used to measure investment returns may be far too low



[img]
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... pi%205.jpg
[/img]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... y-reported

What are your thoughts on this? I can see some major incentives to spin the level of inflation down, but at the same time given the number of economic commentators and academics could they really get away with such a discrepancy?
To use a keyboard is to be at war.
Squilliam
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 359
Joined: Thu 04 Jul 2013, 00:51:46
Location: Auckland New Zealand

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 06:54:08

I heard the same could be said for the official unemployment statistics
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8018
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 10 May 2017, 07:09:00

can they get away with it?

I met a neighbor who is a moderately well-known financial commentator at the coffee shop. He asked me how I was doing. I replied ambiguously. He raised his eyebrows. I said, 'I am puzzled about how long they can keep things levitated.' He said 'Well, the real economy is going down, but they keep printing money to keep the illusions going'.

If your house in the Hamptons depends on the governments continuing to print money, how long can you resist the urge to tell the truth?

Don Stewart
donstewart
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 745
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 07:26:57

A lot longer than your doomer predictions.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9487
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Wed 10 May 2017, 08:05:19

Well, the Roman Empire in the 3rd Century had an Economic Collapse from about 250-275 AD and had managed to keep things together at the expense of the common people. Diocletian later on along with Constantine remade the concept of society to maintain "order". In a way, we here in the United States are undergoing the same process. It all boils down to " whatever it takes".
So, it will go on a lot longer than most can conceive.... But at great human pain and suffering.
Midnight Oil
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu 16 Mar 2017, 15:48:37

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 May 2017, 08:53:04

Shadowstats and Chapwood are nutters. 1300% inflation since 1980. LOL.

View some 2016 consumer energy prices relative to 1980.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/realprices/

Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) from 5.4 to 12.6 or 135%.

Natural gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet) from 3.7 to 10.1 or 175%.

Regular gasoline (dollars per gallon) from 1.25 to 2.15 or 75%.
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby GregT » Wed 10 May 2017, 09:56:36

20 Trillion in US federal debt alone is nutters. So are all of the massive bubbles being blown by people desperately looking for ways to not have their life savings wiped out by lending their money to the TBTF banks.
GregT
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 410
Joined: Thu 24 Jan 2013, 20:18:20
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 10:03:21

GregT wrote:20 Trillion in US federal debt alone is nutters. So are all of the massive bubbles being blown by people desperately looking for ways to not have their life savings wiped out by lending their money to the TBTF banks.


Which one of the entitlement programs would you like to cut first?
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9487
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 10 May 2017, 10:30:05

donstewart wrote:can they get away with it?

I met a neighbor who is a moderately well-known financial commentator at the coffee shop.

We have one of those also. He mostly goes on about Area 51 however. Also wears a "Make America Great Again" cap. I think his name is Cog? Crazy. He will be sent to the decaf line soon enough :x
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26337
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 11:17:32

I'm surprised a MAGA hat doesn't get you sent to prison on the left coast.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9487
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 10 May 2017, 11:46:58

Cog wrote:I'm surprised a MAGA hat doesn't get you sent to prison on the left coast.

The left coast, aka wealthy . . . bright . . . reasonable . . . kind . . . intelligent American coast.

The smart one left . . . where you still are lol
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26337
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:01:28

marmico wrote:Shadowstats and Chapwood are nutters. 1300% inflation since 1980. LOL.
View some 2016 consumer energy prices relative to 1980.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/realprices/
Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) from 5.4 to 12.6 or 135%.
Natural gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet) from 3.7 to 10.1 or 175%.
Regular gasoline (dollars per gallon) from 1.25 to 2.15 or 75%.


Base model 1980 Ford F-150 approx $4000 (I bought one)
Base model 2017 Ford F-150 approx $38000

Yep, only 950%
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1455
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:16:32

That's unfair Hawk. The new F-150 is nothing like the old one, it's many generations more efficient.
Mr Nordhaus intended this example to illuminate a general point about how flawed economists’ attempts to measure changes in living standards are. Any true reckoning of real incomes must somehow account for the vast changes in the quality of things we consume, he wrote. In the case of light, a measurement of inflation based on the cost of things that generated light and one based on a quality-adjusted measure of light itself would have differed by 3.6% a year.

So a new F-150 actually does 9.5 times more really neat stuff then the old one. You no longer wipe your windows in the rain. You now use a patented squeege action. And there are many stations on the juke box, and a nappy holder in the dash
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26337
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:22:44

Yep, only 950%

Major big league fail. Do ya wanna try to hit that breaking ball in the minors?

http://www.thedrive.com/news/9942/check ... -the-years
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 613
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:25:21

I think we can agree that a home is the most significant investment a family will make in their lifetime. Look at the link and you will see the steep climb in prices over decades
https://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8018
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:34:13

onlooker wrote:I think we can agree that a home is the most significant investment a family will make in their lifetime. Look at the link and you will see the steep climb in prices over decades
https://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

It's the same with F150. New homes are much greater than old homes. They have much better views, and Great Rooms. Those Big @ss Greatest Rooms Make America Great Again :-x Don't forget the marbled counter tops. So they are really worth 4.5x.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26337
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby MD » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:36:27

Real inflation has been obfuscated for years by the substitution. The basic idea is that when a particular good or service inflates beyond reach, consumers will choose an alternative. Therefore the inflated good or service will be removed from the "basket" used to calculate inflation.

It's not an entirely unfounded principle, but it does mask real changes in commerce and consumption behind the official figures. Statistics at work!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4830
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 02:00:00
Location: On the ball

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:39:23

alternative=garbage Chinese import haha
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8018
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Revi » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:03:05

There has been almost no real growth for a couple of years now. It's a problem because we are used to 3% growth. The first quarter had an official rate of 0.7%, so that's nowhere near what we feel we need.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:04:35

These are personal perspectives, comparisons between 1960 and 2017, a period of 57 years.

1) Gasoline: was $0.18, is $3.25, inflation 1822%.
2) Loaf of white bread: was $0.15, is $3.99, inflation 2660%.
3) Cheap car: was $1000, is $20,000, inflation 2000%.
4) Can tomato soup: was $0.11, is $1.89, inflation 1718%.

The dollars are not constant, of course, nor are taxes, nor are salaries, and I'm comparing the few things I remember buying at the convenience store on my bicycle and for my Mother, and the 1960-ish article about the "Last Four US Cars Under $1000" in Popular Science magazine.

I put real currency inflation at something about 36% per year, simple average. Think of the implications of that for a few moments. 3% growth will not do the job, nor would 30% growth. We are in fact getting poorer, especially on fixed incomes.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4205
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 12 guests