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Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstated?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 07:54:08

I heard the same could be said for the official unemployment statistics
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 10 May 2017, 08:09:00

can they get away with it?

I met a neighbor who is a moderately well-known financial commentator at the coffee shop. He asked me how I was doing. I replied ambiguously. He raised his eyebrows. I said, 'I am puzzled about how long they can keep things levitated.' He said 'Well, the real economy is going down, but they keep printing money to keep the illusions going'.

If your house in the Hamptons depends on the governments continuing to print money, how long can you resist the urge to tell the truth?

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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 08:26:57

A lot longer than your doomer predictions.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Wed 10 May 2017, 09:05:19

Well, the Roman Empire in the 3rd Century had an Economic Collapse from about 250-275 AD and had managed to keep things together at the expense of the common people. Diocletian later on along with Constantine remade the concept of society to maintain "order". In a way, we here in the United States are undergoing the same process. It all boils down to " whatever it takes".
So, it will go on a lot longer than most can conceive.... But at great human pain and suffering.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 May 2017, 09:53:04

Shadowstats and Chapwood are nutters. 1300% inflation since 1980. LOL.

View some 2016 consumer energy prices relative to 1980.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/realprices/

Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) from 5.4 to 12.6 or 135%.

Natural gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet) from 3.7 to 10.1 or 175%.

Regular gasoline (dollars per gallon) from 1.25 to 2.15 or 75%.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby GregT » Wed 10 May 2017, 10:56:36

20 Trillion in US federal debt alone is nutters. So are all of the massive bubbles being blown by people desperately looking for ways to not have their life savings wiped out by lending their money to the TBTF banks.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 11:03:21

GregT wrote:20 Trillion in US federal debt alone is nutters. So are all of the massive bubbles being blown by people desperately looking for ways to not have their life savings wiped out by lending their money to the TBTF banks.


Which one of the entitlement programs would you like to cut first?
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Cog » Wed 10 May 2017, 12:17:32

I'm surprised a MAGA hat doesn't get you sent to prison on the left coast.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:01:28

marmico wrote:Shadowstats and Chapwood are nutters. 1300% inflation since 1980. LOL.
View some 2016 consumer energy prices relative to 1980.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/realprices/
Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) from 5.4 to 12.6 or 135%.
Natural gas (dollars per thousand cubic feet) from 3.7 to 10.1 or 175%.
Regular gasoline (dollars per gallon) from 1.25 to 2.15 or 75%.


Base model 1980 Ford F-150 approx $4000 (I bought one)
Base model 2017 Ford F-150 approx $38000

Yep, only 950%
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby marmico » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:22:44

Yep, only 950%

Major big league fail. Do ya wanna try to hit that breaking ball in the minors?

http://www.thedrive.com/news/9942/check ... -the-years
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:25:21

I think we can agree that a home is the most significant investment a family will make in their lifetime. Look at the link and you will see the steep climb in prices over decades
https://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby MD » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:36:27

Real inflation has been obfuscated for years by the substitution. The basic idea is that when a particular good or service inflates beyond reach, consumers will choose an alternative. Therefore the inflated good or service will be removed from the "basket" used to calculate inflation.

It's not an entirely unfounded principle, but it does mask real changes in commerce and consumption behind the official figures. Statistics at work!
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 May 2017, 13:39:23

alternative=garbage Chinese import haha
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby Revi » Wed 10 May 2017, 14:03:05

There has been almost no real growth for a couple of years now. It's a problem because we are used to 3% growth. The first quarter had an official rate of 0.7%, so that's nowhere near what we feel we need.
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Re: Inflation seriously understated and thus growth overstat

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 10 May 2017, 14:04:35

These are personal perspectives, comparisons between 1960 and 2017, a period of 57 years.

1) Gasoline: was $0.18, is $3.25, inflation 1822%.
2) Loaf of white bread: was $0.15, is $3.99, inflation 2660%.
3) Cheap car: was $1000, is $20,000, inflation 2000%.
4) Can tomato soup: was $0.11, is $1.89, inflation 1718%.

The dollars are not constant, of course, nor are taxes, nor are salaries, and I'm comparing the few things I remember buying at the convenience store on my bicycle and for my Mother, and the 1960-ish article about the "Last Four US Cars Under $1000" in Popular Science magazine.

I put real currency inflation at something about 36% per year, simple average. Think of the implications of that for a few moments. 3% growth will not do the job, nor would 30% growth. We are in fact getting poorer, especially on fixed incomes.
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